Autoliv, Inc. research snapshot
ALV AI stock analysis currently reads Autoliv as a global automotive safety leader with a durable position in airbags, seatbelts, and steering wheels, supported by qualification cycles, engineering scale, and an estimated 44% passive-safety market share. The counterweight is a cyclical customer base, OEM pricing pressure, tariff and FX exposure, Türkiye restructuring charges, recalls, and a GAAP EPS decline in Q2 2026 even as adjusted earnings and cash flow improved. At the July 31, 2026 market close, ALV was $123.17 with a verified market capitalization near $9.02 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks rather than a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$123.17
Market cap
$9.02 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality safety supplier with record Q2 2026 cash flow and improved technicals, but restructuring charges, EPS decline, and auto-cycle pressure cap conviction
Trend status
Constructive near the moving-average cluster, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day averages and RSI near neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Autoliv supplies safety-critical airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflators, and related systems to more than 1,400 vehicle models. FY2025 sales were $10.815 billion and Q2 2026 net sales reached a record $2.803 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from safety qualification, engineering know-how, global manufacturing, OEM relationships, scale, and a roughly 44% passive-safety market share. It is strong but not absolute. | High |
| Management | Mikael Bratt has overseen margin improvement, record Q2 2026 cash flow, leverage reduction to 1.2x, and recurring buybacks. Near-term tests include Türkiye restructuring execution, the announced resignation of the President of Autoliv Americas, and the 2026 repurchase plan. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4.1% to $10.815 billion with $1.088 billion operating income. Q2 2026 delivered record sales, 9.6% adjusted operating margin, and record second-quarter operating cash flow of $434 million, although GAAP diluted EPS fell 38% on restructuring charges. | High |
| Valuation | At $123.17, ALV traded about 14.47x TTM EPS of $8.51, 11.65x forward EPS, 3.62x book value, 11.92x free cash flow per share, and 0.81x sales per share, with an EV/EBITDA near 7.48x. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is constructive: price stood above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI at 54.74, a step up from the neutral-to-weak reading in the prior review. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are OEM price pressure, a projected light-vehicle production decline around 2.5% in 2026, tariffs and FX, Türkiye restructuring, recalls, customer concentration, China competition, and key-person change in the Americas. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, the Q2 2026 report, and market data; medium for forward scenarios and short-term technical timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. A strong franchise does not remove cyclicality, restructuring noise, or the risk that the market keeps paying a low-teens multiple. | Medium |
ALV AI stock forecast
The ALV AI stock forecast uses the $123.17 market price, the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $10.13, and a three-year earnings-and-multiple framework. The model produced a bullish area near $200 to $215, a base case near $145 to $160, and a bearish case near $75 to $85 before dividends, future buybacks, dilution, or currency effects. Analyst price targets from 18 firms averaged $134.71 as of late July 2026.
$200 to $215
More likely if Autoliv compounds adjusted EPS near 12% annually, holds adjusted operating margin near the 10.5% to 11% 2026 guide, grows Chinese and Indian OEM business, wins higher-content safety programs, and keeps retiring shares while the market re-rates it above a low-teens multiple.
$145 to $160
More likely if Autoliv achieves its 2026 guidance of around 0% organic sales growth, 10.5% to 11% adjusted margin, and about $1.2 billion operating cash flow, with Q4 2026 margin improvement as customer compensations contribute and a multiple near 12x after auto-cycle volatility.
$75 to $85
More likely if light-vehicle production falls faster than the around 2.5% assumption, OEM price concessions offset productivity, tariffs remain unrecovered, Türkiye or other restructuring costs persist, China mix weakens, or quality issues and recalls reduce operating income and cash conversion.
ALV AI technical analysis
ALV AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 31, 2026 market-data cutoff. StockAnalysis placed the price at $123.17, above the 50-day moving average of $122.10 and the 200-day average of $118.72, with RSI at 54.74. This is a range and confirmation setup, not a standalone signal, and the 52-week high near $132.17 remains the key upside test.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $123.17 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 NYSE close at $123.17, down 0.80% on the day. |
| Near support | $122.10 | The 50-day moving average is the first support reference. Holding above it keeps the short-term structure intact. |
| 50-day moving average | $122.10 | Price was above the 50-day average at the cutoff. A sustained reclaim and hold improves short-term trend quality. |
| 200-day moving average | $118.72 | Price remained above the 200-day average, so the longer trend was not confirmed bearish at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.74 | The RSI reading was neutral-to-slightly-positive, a step up from the prior review and not yet overbought. |
| Volume | 793,273 average 20-day volume | A breakout above the 52-week high is more credible when supported by volume above this recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.36 | StockAnalysis reported a five-year beta above the broad market, consistent with cyclical auto-supplier exposure. |
| Resistance | $124.03, then $132.17 | The July 31 session high near $124.03 is the first reclaim level. The 52-week high of $132.17 is the major reference if momentum improves. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $118.72 | A close below the 200-day average would invalidate the near-term constructive framework and shift attention to lower support near the $99 to $100 zone. |
ALV AI trading strategy
The ALV AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a quality cyclical supplier. It is not personal advice. Any decision should account for position size, the next earnings report on October 23, 2026, customer call-offs, tariff developments, restructuring execution, and an explicit invalidation level.
Wait for ALV to hold above the $122.10 50-day moving average and reclaim the recent $124 area, ideally with volume expansion and no deterioration in the 2026 margin or cash-flow outlook. A push toward the $132.17 52-week high would then be the next chart test.
A daily close below the $118.72 200-day average reduces confidence in the trend-following setup and suggests stepping aside.
If ALV pulls back toward the 200-day average, compare the price with FY2025 EPS, TTM EPS of $8.51, free cash flow per share of $10.34, dividend coverage, net debt, and peer auto-supplier multiples before treating the pullback as undervaluation.
Do not average down solely because the stock is near a moving average. Reassess after Q3 earnings, guidance changes, restructuring updates, recalls, or material tariff news.
Track organic sales versus light-vehicle production, adjusted operating margin, operating cash flow, free operating cash flow, share repurchases, net debt, the $300 million to $500 million 2026 buyback plan, China and India OEM sales, and quality metrics through the restructuring period.
Reduce confidence if margin recovery depends on adjustments while GAAP operating income, cash conversion, or quality outcomes weaken.
Investment research summary
Autoliv sells safety-critical systems that help protect vehicle occupants. Customers pay for qualified products, reliable just-in-time delivery, engineering support, and the ability to meet increasingly demanding crash and safety requirements across global vehicle programs.
The moat is built from safety validation, OEM qualification cycles, a global footprint, manufacturing scale, engineering capabilities, and installed relationships across more than 1,400 vehicle models. Autoliv reports around 44% global passive-safety share and around 45% seatbelt share, but regional suppliers and OEM internal sourcing remain real threats.
The thesis fails if OEMs force sustained price cuts, light-vehicle production declines, Chinese automakers internalize more safety content, a recall damages trust, tariffs remain unrecovered, Türkiye restructuring costs drag longer than planned, or capacity actions consume cash without restoring margins.
CEO Mikael Bratt and the operating team delivered record Q2 2026 sales and cash flow, reduced leverage to 1.2x, and continued buybacks and dividends. The key management tests are executing the Türkiye capacity alignment, managing the Americas leadership transition after Kevin Fox announced his resignation, and keeping the $300 million to $500 million 2026 repurchase plan disciplined.
The long-term trend is favorable for more safety content per vehicle, active seatbelts, additional airbags, electric-vehicle safety, and growth in emerging markets. China OEMs accounted for 55% of Autoliv China sales in Q2 2026 versus 40% a year ago, and India sales grew more than 35%, supporting the passive-safety content story despite weaker light-vehicle production elsewhere.
At roughly 14.47x TTM EPS, 11.65x forward EPS, and 11.92x free cash flow, the price is reasonable but not cheap for a cyclical supplier. The margin of safety is only moderate because the multiple assumes the 2026 margin guide and Q4 improvement are delivered through restructuring and an uncertain vehicle-production backdrop.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALV price | $123.17 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.02 billion, verified as $123.17 x 73.24 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.815 billion, consistent across the 10-K, StockAnalysis, and rounded Macrotrends data within 0.07% | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to controlling interest | $735 million, cross-checked against StockAnalysis FY2025 data | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating income and margin | $1.088 billion and about 10.1% reported operating margin | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $1.157 billion on a full-year basis, with TTM operating cash flow near $1.16 billion after Q2 2026 | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 free operating cash flow | $734 million, or 100% cash conversion under Autoliv non-GAAP definition; StockAnalysis reports about $716 million | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $2.803 billion net sales (+3.3%, 1.0% organic growth), $192 million operating income, 9.6% adjusted operating margin, $1.35 diluted EPS, $2.43 adjusted EPS, $434 million operating cash flow, $340 million free operating cash flow | Autoliv Q2 2026 financial report | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet context | $377 million cash, $2.19 billion total debt, about $1.81 billion net debt, and a 1.2x leverage ratio at the June 30, 2026 balance sheet date | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Around 0% organic sales growth, about 2.5% positive FX impact, 10.5% to 11% adjusted operating margin, and around $1.2 billion operating cash flow, assuming light-vehicle production declines around 2.5% | Autoliv Q2 2026 financial report | August 3, 2026 |
| Passive-safety market position | Around 44% global passive-safety market share and around 45% global seatbelt share, according to the 2025 annual report | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $122.10, 200-day MA $118.72, RSI 54.74, average 20-day volume 793,273, beta 1.36, 52-week range $99.16 to $132.17 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | TTM PE 14.47, forward PE 11.65, PS 0.81, PB 3.62, P/FCF 11.92, EV/EBITDA 7.48, dividend yield 2.83% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 18 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $134.71 and a range of $118 to $148 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| China and India momentum | Sales to Chinese OEMs grew more than 40% in Q2 2026, Chinese OEMs were 55% of China sales versus 40% a year ago, and India sales grew more than 35% | Autoliv Q2 2026 financial report | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent partnership context | Autoliv signed strategic cooperation framework agreements with Great Wall Motor on July 6, 2026 and XPENG on July 7, 2026 to support safer mobility and global expansion | Autoliv press releases | August 3, 2026 |
This ALV page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current filings, prices, technical levels, tax implications, and your own risk tolerance before making any decision.
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