Autoliv, Inc. research snapshot
ALV AI stock analysis currently reads Autoliv as a global automotive safety leader with a durable position in airbags, seatbelts, and steering wheels, supported by qualification cycles, engineering scale, and an estimated 44% passive-safety market share. The counterweight is a cyclical customer base, OEM pricing pressure, tariff and FX exposure, recalls, and uneven vehicle production. At the July 10, 2026 market close, ALV was $120.26 with a verified market capitalization near $9.00 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks rather than a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$120.26
Market cap
$9.00 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality safety supplier with solid cash conversion, but cyclical growth and mixed technicals cap conviction
Trend status
Mixed near the moving-average cluster, with price above the 200-day average but below the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026, with market data through the July 10, 2026 close
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Autoliv supplies safety-critical airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflators, and related systems to more than 1,400 vehicle models. FY2025 sales were $10.815 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from safety qualification, engineering know-how, global manufacturing, OEM relationships, scale, and a roughly 44% passive-safety market share. It is strong but not absolute. | High |
| Management | Mikael Bratt has overseen margin improvement, working-capital discipline, and recurring buybacks. The next test is whether the 2026 plan converts operational gains into durable per-share value without sacrificing quality. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4.1%, operating income rose to $1.088 billion, net income attributable to controlling interest rose to $735 million, and free operating cash flow reached $734 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $120.26, ALV was about 12.59x FY2025 diluted EPS, 3.49x reported book value per share, 12.23x free operating cash flow per share, and 0.83x sales per share. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is mixed: price was below the 50-day average but above the 200-day average, while RSI was neutral and average volume remained moderate. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are OEM price pressure, light-vehicle production declines, tariffs and FX, recalls, customer concentration, China competition, supply-chain disruption, and execution during capacity alignments. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials and business structure, medium for forward scenarios and short-term technical timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. A strong franchise does not remove cyclicality or guarantee that the market will pay a higher multiple. | Medium |
ALV AI stock forecast
The ALV AI stock forecast uses the $120.26 market price, FY2025 diluted EPS of $9.55, and an audited three-year earnings-and-multiple framework. The model produced a bullish area near $201, a base case near $148, and a bearish case near $78 before dividends, future buybacks, dilution, or currency effects.
$190 to $210
More likely if Autoliv compounds EPS near 12% annually, holds adjusted operating margin near or above the 10.5% to 11% 2026 guide, expands in China and India, wins higher-content safety programs, and continues disciplined buybacks.
$140 to $155
More likely if Autoliv achieves its 2026 margin and cash-flow guidance, keeps organic sales roughly stable, grows safety content per vehicle over time, and earns a multiple near 13x after normal auto-cycle volatility.
$75 to $85
More likely if light-vehicle production falls, OEM price concessions offset productivity, tariffs remain unrecovered, China mix stays weak, or recalls and capacity actions reduce operating income and cash conversion.
ALV AI technical analysis
ALV AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 10, 2026 market-data cutoff. StockAnalysis placed the price below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day average, with RSI at 45.13. This is a range and confirmation setup, not a standalone signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $120.26 | StockAnalysis reported the July 10, 2026 NYSE close at $120.26. |
| Near support | $118.97 | The 200-day moving average is the first support reference. A sustained break below it would weaken the medium-term structure. |
| 50-day moving average | $121.05 | Price was slightly below the 50-day average. A sustained reclaim would improve short-term trend quality. |
| 200-day moving average | $118.97 | Price remained above the 200-day average, so the longer trend was not confirmed bearish at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 45.13 | The RSI reading was neutral, with neither an overbought nor a deeply oversold condition. |
| Volume | 729,674 average 20-day volume | A breakout or breakdown is more credible when it is supported by volume above this recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.36 | StockAnalysis reported a five-year beta above the broad market, consistent with cyclical auto-supplier exposure. |
| Resistance | $121.05, then $132.17 | The 50-day average is the first reclaim level. The 52-week high is the next major reference if momentum improves. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $118.97 | A close below the 200-day average would invalidate the near-term bullish-reclaim framework and shift attention to lower support. |
ALV AI trading strategy
The ALV AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a quality cyclical supplier. It is not personal advice. Any decision should account for position size, the July 17, 2026 earnings event, customer call-offs, tariff developments, and an explicit invalidation level.
Wait for ALV to reclaim and hold above the $121.05 50-day moving average, ideally with volume expansion and no deterioration in the 2026 margin or cash-flow outlook. A move toward the $132.17 52-week high would then be the next chart test.
A failed reclaim followed by a daily close below $118.97 reduces confidence in the trend-following setup.
If ALV holds near the 200-day average, compare the price with FY2025 EPS, free operating cash flow, dividend coverage, net debt, and peer auto-supplier multiples before treating a pullback as undervaluation.
Do not average down solely because the stock is near a moving average. Reassess after earnings, guidance changes, recalls, or material tariff news.
Track organic sales versus light-vehicle production, adjusted operating margin, operating cash flow, free operating cash flow, share repurchases, net debt, safety content per vehicle, China OEM sales, and quality metrics.
Reduce confidence if margin recovery depends on adjustments while GAAP operating income, cash conversion, or quality outcomes weaken.
Investment research summary
Autoliv sells safety-critical systems that help protect vehicle occupants. Customers pay for qualified products, reliable just-in-time delivery, engineering support, and the ability to meet increasingly demanding crash and safety requirements across global vehicle programs.
The moat is built from safety validation, OEM qualification cycles, a global footprint, manufacturing scale, engineering capabilities, and installed relationships across more than 1,400 vehicle models. Autoliv reports around 44% global passive-safety share and around 45% seatbelt share, but regional suppliers and OEM internal sourcing remain real threats.
The thesis fails if OEMs force sustained price cuts, light-vehicle production declines, Chinese automakers internalize more safety content, a recall damages trust, tariffs remain unrecovered, or capacity actions consume cash without restoring margins.
CEO Mikael Bratt and the operating team have improved margins, working-capital discipline, return on capital, and shareholder distributions. The key management test is whether the planned $300 million to $500 million of 2026 repurchases remains sensible while Autoliv funds quality, capacity, and new safety technology.
The long-term trend is favorable for more safety content per vehicle, active seatbelts, additional airbags, electric-vehicle safety, and growth in emerging markets. Autoliv estimates the passive-safety market could grow from about $24 billion in 2025 to almost $26 billion over the next three years, but vehicle production and regional mix can dilute revenue growth.
At roughly 12.59x FY2025 diluted EPS and 12.23x free operating cash flow per share, the price is not extreme for a market leader. The margin of safety is only moderate because the multiple assumes that the 2025 earnings improvement and 2026 margin guide are durable through an auto cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALV price | $120.26 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.00 billion, verified as $120.26 x 74.86 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.815 billion, consistent across the 10-K, StockAnalysis, and rounded Macrotrends data within 0.05% | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to controlling interest | $735 million, cross-checked against StockAnalysis FY2025 data | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating income and margin | $1.088 billion and 10.1% reported operating margin | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $1.157 billion. StockAnalysis shows about $1.00 billion on a later TTM basis, so the period difference is material. | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free operating cash flow | $734 million, or 100% cash conversion under Autoliv’s non-GAAP definition | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | $604 million cash, $2.153 billion debt, and $1.566 billion net debt at December 31, 2025 | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS and dividend | $9.55 diluted EPS and $3.12 declared dividend per share | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results and full-year guidance | $2.753 billion sales, 8.9% adjusted operating margin, and guidance for around 0% organic sales growth, 10.5% to 11% adjusted margin, and $1.2 billion operating cash flow | Autoliv Q1 2026 financial report | July 12, 2026 |
| Passive-safety market position | Around 44% global passive-safety market share and around 45% global seatbelt share, according to the 2025 annual report | Autoliv 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $121.05, 200-day MA $118.97, RSI 45.13, average 20-day volume 729,674, beta 1.36 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Recent China partnership context | Autoliv announced a strategic cooperation framework with XPENG on July 7, 2026, supporting technology, supply-chain, and global expansion discussions | Autoliv press release | July 12, 2026 |
This ALV page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current filings, prices, technical levels, tax implications, and your own risk tolerance before making any decision.
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