Karman Holdings Inc. research snapshot
KRMN AI stock analysis currently reads Karman Holdings as a post-IPO defense and space contractor with a large addressable market in hypersonics, missile defense, tactical systems, and space launch, offset by negative free cash flow, high leverage, and a short public track record. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest located close was $51.47 on July 10, with a market capitalization near $6.82 billion. The KRMN AI stock forecast is highly sensitive to backlog conversion, margin expansion, and the valuation multiple investors assign to a business that trades above 220 times trailing earnings. The chart has fallen sharply from a 52-week high above $118, reflecting a post-IPO revaluation. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$51.47 July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$6.82 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Early-stage defense and aerospace contractor with large backlog opportunity and significant execution risk
Trend status
Down-trend after a steep decline from the 52-week high, with price well below tracked moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Karman provides mission-critical payload protection, deployment, interstage, and propulsion systems for hypersonics, strategic missile defense, tactical missiles, and space launch. Customers pay for reliability and specification compliance in programs where failure is not an option. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from specialized engineering, security clearances, US government program qualifications, and incumbent positions on programs that take years to re-compete. This creates meaningful barriers, but large primes (Lockheed, RTX, Northrop) have deeper resources and could vertically integrate. | Medium |
| Management | Management is appointed by TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP, the controlling PE shareholder. The team has relevant defense and aerospace experience but limited public-company governance track record. The June 2026 secondary offering raised $854M and signals a path toward PE liquidity, which may not align perfectly with minority shareholders. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue reached $522.59 million TTM with net income of $29.96 million, but free cash flow was negative at -$40.08 million TTM. The balance sheet carries $73.8 million cash against an enterprise value implying significant debt, with debt-to-equity above 210%. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $51.47, financial_rigor.py calculates about 223.8x TTM EPS, 18.4x book value, and 14.3x sales. Forward P/E near 107.5x implies that the market expects steep earnings growth, leaving zero room for a miss or a program delay. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close at $51.47 is well below the 52-week high of $118.38. The stock has lost over 55% from its peak, indicating a prolonged distribution phase or a structural re-rating lower. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks include US government budget and program risk, customer concentration, negative free cash flow, high leverage, PE ownership and insider selling, post-IPO lockup expirations, dilution from the secondary offering, and limited public-company track record. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical facts and calculations but low for forward projections because the company has limited public data and the defense contract environment is inherently unpredictable. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low. The business opportunity is real but the current price leaves no margin of safety, free cash flow is negative, and the PE ownership structure creates uncertainty about long-term shareholder alignment. | Low |
KRMN AI stock forecast
The KRMN AI stock forecast uses the $51.47 reference price and $0.23 TTM diluted EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 80%, 40%, and 15% annual EPS growth with 100x, 65x, and 35x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $134, $41, and $12. These are scenario ranges, not price promises. The wide dispersion reflects the extreme uncertainty in projecting earnings for a recently public, PE-backed defense contractor with negative free cash flow and limited operating history.
$110 to $155 before dilution effects
More likely if Karman wins key new program awards, margins expand as revenue scales, free cash flow turns positive within 12-18 months, the US defense budget continues to prioritize hypersonics and missile defense, and the market assigns a premium multiple reserved for high-growth defense technology companies.
$35 to $50 before dilution effects
More likely if program revenues grow at a mid-single-digit to low-double-digit rate, margins improve gradually, free cash flow remains negative or barely positive, the PE sponsor continues to reduce its stake via secondary offerings, and the valuation multiple contracts toward a 50-80x forward PE range.
$10 to $25 before dilution effects
More likely if major programs are delayed or canceled, margins stay compressed due to fixed-price contract risk or cost overruns, free cash flow remains deeply negative, the balance sheet requires dilutive equity or debt financing, the PE sponsor exits at any price, or the stock falls out of favor as defense spending rotates to other priorities.
KRMN AI technical analysis
KRMN AI technical analysis was strongly cautious at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The stock had declined more than 55% from its 52-week high of $118.38, suggesting a durable downtrend and potential structural re-rating. The latest reference price was $51.47. Volume data from Yahoo Finance reported average daily volume near 2.88 million shares. These static levels should be refreshed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $51.47 | Yahoo Finance previous close for July 10, 2026, the latest located completed trading session before the July 12 research cutoff. |
| Near support | $44.00 to $48.00 | The 52-week low near $44.00 is the most critical support level. A test of this zone would determine whether the stock can establish a base. |
| Secondary support | $35.00 to $40.00 | If the 52-week low fails, the next downside reference is the $35-$40 zone, which represents a further 20-30% decline from $51.47. |
| Near resistance | $58.00 to $65.00 | The first meaningful resistance zone above the current price. A recovery above this area would begin to suggest the downtrend is exhausting. |
| Breakout resistance | $80.00 to $90.00 | A breakout above this zone would indicate a potential trend reversal. This area represents significant overhead supply from the post-IPO decline. |
| 52-week high | $118.38 | The IPO-era peak. The stock would need to more than double from $51.47 to reclaim this level. |
| Momentum | Strongly negative | The stock is in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows since the post-IPO peak. |
| Volume | About 2.88 million shares average | Elevated volume during the decline suggests active distribution. A volume contraction near support would be a more constructive signal. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44 or sustained recovery above $65 | A close below the 52-week low near $44 would confirm the downtrend continuation. A sustained recovery above $65 would begin to challenge the bearish structure. |
KRMN AI trading strategy
The KRMN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair price action with contract awards, backlog data, quarterly revenue and margin reports, free cash flow trajectory, debt and dilution news, and US defense budget developments.
KRMN is in a persistent downtrend. A trend-following approach would wait for the stock to establish a base above the $44 52-week low, reclaim the $58-$65 resistance zone on expanding volume, and show at least two quarters of improving free cash flow before considering a long setup.
A break below $44 would invalidate any nascent base-building pattern and suggest the next leg lower toward $35 or below.
If KRMN approaches the $44-$48 support zone on declining volume and without adverse fundamental news, the risk-reward for a tactical bounce may improve. However, mean reversion in a stock that has lost 55% from its high carries significant catching-a-falling-knife risk.
Use a tight stop below $44. Do not attempt this setup if a secondary offering, program cancellation, or insider selling event coincides with the price test.
Track contract awards, funded and total backlog trends, quarterly revenue by program area, gross and operating margins, free cash flow, debt levels, secondary offerings, insider transactions, and US defense appropriation for hypersonics and missile defense programs.
Lower confidence if backlog stagnates, margins contract, free cash flow becomes more negative, the PE sponsor accelerates share sales, or the company needs additional equity or debt financing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Karman for specialized payload protection, deployment, interstage, and propulsion systems that must work reliably in hypersonic, missile defense, tactical missile, and space launch applications. The business depends on US government and prime defense contractor relationships, with program awards that are large but irregular and subject to budget cycles.
The moat is built from specialized engineering talent, security clearances, existing program qualifications, and the high cost and long timeline for competitors to replicate capability on specific platforms. However, large primes like Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman have deeper resources and may choose to insource critical subsystems, which would narrow Karman's addressable opportunity.
The thesis fails if the US defense budget prioritizes other areas over hypersonics and missile defense, major programs are delayed or restructured, the company loses a key re-compete, margins prove inadequate on fixed-price development contracts, negative free cash flow forces dilutive financing, or the PE sponsor's exit timeline creates adverse incentives. The June 2026 secondary offering priced at a discount to the IPO price is a concrete signal that PE liquidity is already in motion.
Karman is controlled by TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP, a private equity vehicle. Management has relevant defense industry experience but lacks a long public-company track record. The June 2026 secondary offering raised $854 million and reduced the sponsor's stake, a typical PE exit step. Minority shareholders face the risk that management decisions prioritize sponsor outcomes over public shareholder returns.
Global defense spending is elevated due to geopolitical tensions, with hypersonics, missile defense, and space designated as priority areas by the US Department of Defense. This supports a multi-year growth runway for capable subcontractors. The counterweight is that defense budgets are political and subject to change, program timelines are unpredictable, and the industry is characterized by a few dominant prime contractors that capture most of the value.
At about 224x TTM EPS and 14.3x sales, the market prices Karman for a steep growth trajectory that has not yet materialized in free cash flow. The negative FCF (-$40 million TTM) is a critical concern. The 52-week decline from $118 to $51 represents a substantial re-pricing, but whether it is sufficient depends entirely on backlog conversion, margin expansion, and the eventual free cash flow inflection. A margin of safety would require either a significantly lower entry price or clear evidence that earnings can grow into the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $51.47 July 10, 2026 close | Yahoo Finance KRMN summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.82 billion (estimated from price and ~132.5M shares) | Yahoo Finance statistics and market-cap math | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 132.5 million post-secondary-offering | Yahoo Finance market cap / price calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $522.59 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $29.96 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $0.23 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | -$40.08 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $73.8 million cash; debt-to-equity 213.71%; enterprise value $8.26 billion as of July 2, 2026 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 223.8x P/E (TTM), 107.5x forward P/E, 18.4x P/B, 14.3x P/S, 15.8x EV/Revenue, 59.7x EV/EBITDA using financial_rigor.py | Yahoo Finance key statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Profitability | Profit margin 5.73%, ROA 4.71%, ROE 7.94% (TTM) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | 52-week range $44.00 to $118.38; average volume 2.88 million shares | Yahoo Finance KRMN summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Sector and industry | Industrials, Aerospace and Defense | Yahoo Finance KRMN profile | July 12, 2026 |
| Employees | Approximately 1,400 | Yahoo Finance KRMN profile | July 12, 2026 |
| Ownership | Subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP (PE-backed); June 2026 upsized secondary offering of $854 million | SEC filings and news reports | July 12, 2026 |
This KRMN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Karman Holdings. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if US defense budgets, contract awards, program schedules, margins, free cash flow, equity offerings, or market conditions change. The company has a limited public operating history, and several key assumptions rely on estimates that cannot be independently verified from public sources.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
