BWX Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
BWXT AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads BWX Technologies as a differentiated nuclear-components and services supplier with a large U.S. government franchise, an expanding commercial nuclear business, a completed Precision Components Group acquisition, and $8.651 billion of Q1 2026 backlog. The stock closed at $168.70 on July 31, 2026, about 9% below the $186.00 level of the previous monthly snapshot, with a market capitalization near $15.46 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $168.70 times 91.61 million shares outstanding with 0.03% deviation against the reported figure. Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $860.2 million up 26%, GAAP net income of $91.2 million up 21%, non-GAAP EPS of $1.12 up 22%, adjusted EBITDA of $148.0 million up 14%, and free cash flow of $50.1 million up 190%, and management raised 2026 guidance to revenue above $3.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $650 million to $665 million, non-GAAP EPS of $4.60 to $4.75, and free cash flow of $315 million to $330 million. The second quarter 2026 report is scheduled for August 3, 2026, after this page data cutoff, so it is not included here. The July 31 close values BWXT at about 44.99x trailing EPS, 35.82x the $4.71 FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate, and 47.1x trailing free cash flow, so the valuation still leaves limited room for execution misses even after the pullback. The BWXT AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$168.70
Market cap
$15.46 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality nuclear supplier, cheaper but still fully priced
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a deeper correction from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BWXT supplies naval nuclear components and services, special materials, commercial nuclear equipment, fuel handling, field services, and medical isotopes to customers with long qualification cycles. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on nuclear manufacturing know-how, regulatory qualification, proprietary processes, specialized facilities, long customer relationships, and high switching costs in naval and nuclear applications. | High |
| Management | CEO Rex Geveden raised 2026 guidance after a strong Q1 and completed the Precision Components Group acquisition on July 6, 2026. The key test is converting record backlog without weakening returns or balance-sheet discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose 26% to $860.2 million, GAAP net income rose 21% to $91.2 million, non-GAAP EPS rose 22% to $1.12, adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $148.0 million, and free cash flow rose 190% to $50.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $168.70, financial_rigor.py verifies about 44.99x trailing GAAP EPS, 35.82x FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS, 12.07x book value, and a 2.12% free-cash-flow yield. The pullback reduced but did not remove the premium. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $168.70 was below the 50-day average near $188.22 and the 200-day average near $197.46, and about 30% below the 52-week high of $241.82, so the technical posture is corrective. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because of government-program timing, contract execution, project mix, commercial nuclear cyclicality, leverage, acquisition integration, and a still-premium valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for reported operations, cash, debt, shares, backlog, and price math. It is lower for Q2 2026 results due August 3, 2026, and for future commercial nuclear conversion and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The company has durable assets and visible demand, but the upcoming Q2 report and the premium multiple make entry price and operating delivery central to the thesis. | Medium |
BWXT AI stock forecast
The BWXT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $168.70 July 31 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the $4.71 FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate generated mechanical three-year outputs near $358.20 in a bull case, $264.70 in a base case, and $163.60 in a bear case before dividends, execution risk, and multiple volatility. The 16-analyst average price target was $238.16, with a low of $200 and a high of $290.
$240 to $358
More likely if the August 3 Q2 report confirms growth, naval reactor and special-materials work converts on schedule, commercial nuclear and medical businesses sustain momentum, backlog stays funded, 2026 guidance is exceeded, and investors continue to pay a premium multiple for nuclear scarcity.
$170 to $250
More likely if BWXT meets its raised 2026 outlook, Q2 results land near consensus, commercial growth normalizes after the Q1 step-up, cash conversion improves, and the market accepts an earnings multiple near 36x to 40x.
$143 to $170
More likely if Q2 results disappoint, government program timing shifts, costs or project execution slip, commercial orders slow, Precision Components Group integration drags on margins, or investors de-rate the stock closer to an industrial contractor multiple.
BWXT AI technical analysis
BWXT AI technical analysis uses the $168.70 July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average of $188.22, a 200-day moving average of $197.46, RSI of 40.88, average 20-day volume of about 879,713 shares, and a 52-week range of $143.07 to $241.82. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $168.70 | StockAnalysis regular-session close on July 31, 2026, the latest available close before the August 2 cutoff. |
| Near support | $164 to $169 | This is a nearby round-number and current-price zone, with the July 31 intraday low near $164.71. A sustained break should be assessed with fresh chart data rather than treated as a fixed trigger. |
| Major support | $143 to $150 | The 52-week low is $143.07. This wider zone matters because it is the last major reference before the stock revisits lower levels. |
| Near resistance | $188 to $198 | The 50-day average near $188.22 and the 200-day average near $197.46 cluster here, making recovery through this range the first broad trend test. |
| 50-day moving average | $188.22 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 31, 2026. Price was below this short-term reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $197.46 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 31, 2026. Price was also below this long-term reference. |
| Momentum | RSI 40.88, neutral to weak | The reading was below the neutral midpoint but not deeply oversold, so it does not by itself signal a reversal. |
| Volume | About 879,713 shares, 20-day average | Use a move back above the moving-average cluster with stronger-than-average volume as a confirmation check. |
| Volatility | 0.74 five-year beta | Historical beta is lower than the market, but the Q2 report, contract announcements, guidance, and valuation re-rating can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Failure to recover $188 to $198 and loss of current support | A continued inability to regain the moving-average cluster, especially with a disappointing Q2 report, would weaken a trend-following setup. |
BWXT AI trading strategy
The BWXT AI trading strategy is a monitoring framework for a premium-valued nuclear supplier. It is not personalized advice and should be used with position sizing, an earnings calendar, a defined invalidation point, and current market data.
Wait for BWXT to recover the $188 to $198 moving-average cluster with volume above its recent average, then monitor whether the August 3 Q2 report confirms revenue, cash flow, backlog conversion, and 2026 guidance.
Invalidate the setup if price cannot reclaim the moving-average cluster and company disclosures show weaker backlog conversion, lower guidance, or a material cost or integration issue.
If the stock stabilizes near the current zone while government funding, backlog, and commercial segment growth remain intact, watch for improving momentum and a confirmed Q2 report before assuming the correction is complete.
Do not average down solely because the price has fallen. Reassess if the decline coincides with contract delays, lower margins, unexpected debt growth, or reduced free-cash-flow guidance.
Track the August 3 Q2 2026 report, Government Operations revenue and margin, Commercial Operations growth, bookings, backlog, operating cash flow, capital expenditure, free cash flow, net debt, Precision Components Group integration, and 2026 guidance.
Reduce confidence if backlog grows without conversion, commercial mix dilutes margins, acquisition costs rise, or free cash flow lags earnings for several reporting periods.
Investment research summary
Customers pay BWXT for highly qualified nuclear components, materials, services, fuel handling, isotope products, and technical expertise where failure tolerance is low and qualification time is long.
Nuclear-grade manufacturing, regulatory approvals, specialized facilities, process knowledge, safety culture, and entrenched customer programs create switching costs that general industrial suppliers cannot easily replicate.
The thesis fails if record backlog does not convert into profitable cash flow, government priorities or funding change, Q2 results disappoint, commercial nuclear projects slip, costs rise, the Precision Components Group integration drags, or valuation compresses after growth normalizes.
Management raised 2026 guidance after Q1 and completed the Precision Components Group acquisition on July 6, 2026. Capital allocation should be judged by cash conversion, acquisition integration, leverage control, and returns on new capacity rather than backlog alone.
Energy security, naval propulsion, life extension, nuclear medicine, and potential new-reactor investment support long-term demand, while timelines remain constrained by regulation, public budgets, supply chains, and project economics.
The July 31 price values BWXT at roughly 44.99x trailing GAAP EPS, 35.82x FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS, and about 47x trailing free cash flow per share. The margin of safety depends more on sustained execution than on a low starting multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT price | $168.70 at the July 31 close, after-hours $168.79 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.46 billion reported; $15.45 billion from $168.70 times 91.61M shares, a 0.03% deviation | StockAnalysis and BWXT Q1 2026 share data | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.198 billion, cross-validated with no material difference across three sources | BWXT FY2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $329.9 million from the 10-K; StockAnalysis showed $328.95 million, a 0.27% deviation | BWXT FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and GAAP net income | $860.2 million revenue, up 26%; $91.2 million net income, up 21% | BWXT Q1 2026 press release and financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA | Non-GAAP EPS of $1.12, up 22%; adjusted EBITDA of $148.0 million, up 14% | BWXT Q1 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog | $8.651 billion, including $6.931 billion Government Operations and $1.720 billion Commercial Operations | BWXT Q1 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $512.4 million cash and $2.018 billion long-term debt at March 31, 2026 | BWXT Q1 2026 financial statements and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Revenue above $3.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $650 to $665 million, non-GAAP EPS of $4.60 to $4.75, and free cash flow of $315 to $330 million | BWXT Q1 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 16 analysts; average price target $238.16, low $200, high $290; FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS $4.71 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $188.22, 200-day average $197.46, RSI 40.88, 20-day average volume 879,713, 52-week range $143.07 to $241.82 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This BWXT research page is an informational tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are scenario calculations based on available data and assumptions, may be wrong, and can change quickly. BWXT reports second quarter 2026 results on August 3, 2026, after this page data cutoff. Verify primary sources and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
