BWX Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
BWXT AI stock analysis currently views BWX Technologies as a differentiated nuclear-components and services supplier with a large U.S. government franchise, expanding commercial nuclear and medical businesses, and $8.65 billion of first-quarter backlog. The business case is supported by 2026 guidance above $3.75 billion in revenue and $4.60 to $4.75 in non-GAAP EPS, but the July 10, 2026 close of $186.00 already embeds demanding growth and execution expectations. The BWXT AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$186.00
Market cap
$17.04 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality nuclear supplier, priced for continued execution
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong prior run
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BWXT supplies naval nuclear components and services, special materials, commercial nuclear equipment, fuel handling, field services, and medical isotopes to customers with long qualification cycles. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on nuclear manufacturing know-how, regulatory qualification, proprietary processes, specialized facilities, long customer relationships, and high switching costs in naval and nuclear applications. | High |
| Management | CEO Rex Geveden has focused on throughput, operational performance, commercial growth, and acquisitions. The key test is converting record backlog without weakening returns or balance-sheet discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose 26% to $860.2 million, GAAP net income rose 21% to $91.2 million, and free cash flow increased to $50.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $186.00, financial_rigor.py verifies about 39.5x 2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS, 13.3x book value, and a 1.9% free-cash-flow yield. The valuation leaves limited room for execution misses. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was below the 50-day average near $199.17 and the 200-day average near $198.52, so the recent technical posture is corrective rather than confirmed bullish. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because of government-program timing, contract execution, project mix, commercial nuclear cyclicality, leverage, integration work, and a premium valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for reported operations, cash, debt, shares, backlog, and price math. It is lower for future commercial nuclear conversion and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The company has durable assets and visible demand, but current valuation makes entry price and operating delivery central to the thesis. | Medium |
BWXT AI stock forecast
The BWXT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $186.00 July 10 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $4.71 2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS generated mechanical three-year outputs near $371.50 in a bull case, $250.80 in a base case, and $154.40 in a bear case before dividends, execution risk, and multiple volatility.
$250 to $372
More likely if naval reactor and special-materials work converts on schedule, commercial nuclear and medical businesses sustain growth, backlog remains funded, 2026 guidance is exceeded, and investors continue to pay a premium multiple for nuclear scarcity.
$186 to $251
More likely if BWXT meets its raised 2026 outlook, commercial growth normalizes after the first-quarter step-up, cash conversion improves, and the market accepts an earnings multiple near 40x.
$154 to $186
More likely if government program timing shifts, costs or project execution disappoint, commercial orders slow, leverage rises with acquisitions, or investors de-rate the stock closer to an industrial contractor multiple.
BWXT AI technical analysis
BWXT AI technical analysis uses the $186.00 July 10, 2026 close. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average of $199.17, a 200-day moving average of $198.52, RSI of 41.37, and average 20-day volume of about 977,724 shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $186.00 | StockAnalysis regular-session close on July 10, 2026, the latest available close before the July 11 cutoff. |
| Near support | $180 to $186 | This is a nearby round-number and current-price zone. A sustained break should be assessed with fresh chart data rather than treated as a fixed trigger. |
| Near resistance | $199 to $200 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages cluster near this range, making recovery through it the first broad trend test. |
| 50-day moving average | $199.17 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 10, 2026. Price was below this short-term reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $198.52 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 10, 2026. Price was also below this long-term reference. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.37, neutral to weak | The reading was below the neutral midpoint but not deeply oversold, so it does not by itself signal a reversal. |
| Volume | About 977,724 shares, 20-day average | Use a move back above the moving-average cluster with stronger-than-average volume as a confirmation check. |
| Volatility | 0.74 five-year beta | Historical beta is lower than the market, but contract announcements, guidance, and valuation re-rating can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Failure to recover $199 to $200 and loss of current support | A continued inability to regain the moving-average cluster, especially with weaker fundamental updates, would weaken a trend-following setup. |
BWXT AI trading strategy
The BWXT AI trading strategy is a monitoring framework for a premium-valued nuclear supplier. It is not personalized advice and should be used with position sizing, an earnings calendar, a defined invalidation point, and current market data.
Wait for BWXT to recover the $199 to $200 moving-average cluster with volume above its recent average, then monitor whether Q2 results confirm revenue, cash flow, backlog conversion, and 2026 guidance.
Invalidate the setup if price cannot reclaim the moving-average cluster and company disclosures show weaker backlog conversion, lower guidance, or a material cost issue.
If the stock stabilizes near the current zone while government funding, backlog, and commercial segment growth remain intact, watch for improving momentum before assuming the correction is complete.
Do not average down solely because the price has fallen. Reassess if the decline coincides with contract delays, lower margins, unexpected debt growth, or reduced free-cash-flow guidance.
Track Government Operations revenue and margin, Commercial Operations growth, bookings, backlog, operating cash flow, capital expenditure, free cash flow, net debt, Precision Components Group integration, and 2026 guidance.
Reduce confidence if backlog grows without conversion, commercial mix dilutes margins, acquisition costs rise, or free cash flow lags earnings for several reporting periods.
Investment research summary
Customers pay BWXT for highly qualified nuclear components, materials, services, fuel handling, isotope products, and technical expertise where failure tolerance is low and qualification time is long.
Nuclear-grade manufacturing, regulatory approvals, specialized facilities, process knowledge, safety culture, and entrenched customer programs create switching costs that general industrial suppliers cannot easily replicate.
The thesis fails if record backlog does not convert into profitable cash flow, government priorities or funding change, commercial nuclear projects slip, costs rise, acquisitions disappoint, or valuation compresses after growth normalizes.
Management raised 2026 guidance after Q1 and is pursuing commercial expansion. Capital allocation should be judged by cash conversion, acquisition integration, leverage control, and returns on new capacity rather than backlog alone.
Energy security, naval propulsion, life extension, nuclear medicine, and potential new-reactor investment support long-term demand, while timelines remain constrained by regulation, public budgets, supply chains, and project economics.
The July 10 price values BWXT at roughly 39.5x 2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS and about 52x trailing free cash flow per share. The margin of safety depends more on sustained execution than on a low starting multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT price | $186.00 at the July 10 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $17.04 billion reported; $17.01 billion from $186.00 times 91.445M shares | StockAnalysis and BWXT 2025 Form 10-K | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.198 billion, cross-validated with no material difference | BWXT 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $329.9 million from the 10-K; Macrotrends showed $329 million | BWXT 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and GAAP net income | $860.2 million revenue, up 26%; $91.2 million net income, up 21% | BWXT Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog | $8.651 billion, including $6.931 billion Government Operations and $1.720 billion Commercial Operations | BWXT Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $512.4 million cash and $2.018 billion long-term debt at March 31, 2026 | BWXT Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Revenue above $3.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $650 to $665 million, non-GAAP EPS of $4.60 to $4.75, and free cash flow of $315 to $330 million | BWXT Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $199.17, 200-day average $198.52, RSI 41.37, 20-day average volume 977,724 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
This BWXT research page is an informational tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are scenario calculations based on available data and assumptions, may be wrong, and can change quickly. Verify primary sources and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
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