Kinross Gold Corporation research snapshot
KGC AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Kinross Gold as a large, net-cash gold producer that just reported a strong second quarter with over $725 million of attributable free cash flow, a 42% margin increase to $3,131 per ounce, and a balance sheet that added about $470 million of cash in the quarter. The stock closed at $23.10 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $27.33 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $23.10 times 1.186 billion shares with a 0.26% deviation against StockAnalysis.com. The July 29, 2026 Q2 report showed attributable production of 492,326 gold-equivalent ounces, an average realized gold price of $4,483 per ounce, net earnings of $0.71 per share, operating cash flow of $1,145.9 million, and attributable free cash flow of $726.8 million, with net cash of $1.9 billion at June 30, 2026. Kinross maintained 2026 guidance for 2.0 million attributable ounces, $1,730 attributable AISC per ounce, and $1,500 million of attributable capital expenditures, and it reaffirmed a 40% free-cash-flow return commitment. The development pipeline advanced with a Lobo-Marte economics refresh showing a $4.3 billion NPV and about $1,000 per ounce AISC, plus Great Bear AEX surface construction about 93% complete. The counterweights are that gold spot prices have fallen from a near $4,900 peak to about $4,040, the stock is well below its 52-week high of $39.11 and below all major moving averages, costs rose year over year, and several banks cut price targets in July 2026 while the average target still sits near $36. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$23.10
Market cap
$27.33 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Net-cash gold producer with record margins and a cheap valuation, facing gold-price and technical headwinds
Trend status
Short-term price is below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kinross produces gold from mines in the United States, Brazil, Mauritania, Chile, and Canada, with TTM revenue near $8.47 billion and a portfolio led by Paracatu, Tasiast, and La Coipa. The economic engine is the spread between realized gold price and the cost of producing each ounce. | High |
| Moat | The advantage is asset and execution based: permitted reserves, processing plants, local operating teams, technical knowledge, infrastructure, and balance-sheet capacity. It is weaker than a branded moat because gold is a commodity and deposits deplete. | Medium |
| Management | CEO J. Paul Rollinson has led Kinross since 2012. The current test is converting high commodity margins into per-share value through disciplined operations, cost control, debt-free growth, buybacks, dividends, and project delivery, with a named COO succession to Bernard Wessels and a new board member announced in July 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 delivered attributable production of 492,326 gold-equivalent ounces, metal sales of $2,238.1 million, operating cash flow of $1,145.9 million, attributable free cash flow of $726.8 million, net earnings of $0.71 per share, and net cash of $1.9 billion at June 30, 2026, after a record-strength 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $23.10, the local valuation check computed about 8.78x trailing EPS, 2.84x book value, 8.95x price to free cash flow, and an 11.17% free-cash-flow yield using third-party trailing inputs, with StockAnalysis.com reporting an 8.60 PE and 2.80 PB. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 snapshot showed price at $23.10, below the 20-day average of $23.58, the 50-day average of $25.38, the 100-day average of $28.16, and the 200-day average of $28.89, with RSI of 42.48 and a 14-day ADX near 16, indicating weak, slightly negative momentum rather than a fresh breakdown. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because KGC is exposed to gold prices, fuel and labour cost inflation, grades, recoveries, reserve replacement, mine safety, taxes, permits, political conditions in Chile, Mauritania, Brazil, and the United States, and project execution on Lobo-Marte, Great Bear, Round Mountain Phase X, Curlew, and Bald Mountain Redbird. | High |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed history and arithmetic that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q2 2026 earnings release. Lower for commodity prices, operating results, technical momentum, and the future share price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Net cash, record margins, and a cheap multiple help, but neither removes commodity cyclicality, cost inflation, or the risk that gold price weakness keeps the stock under its moving averages. | Medium |
KGC AI stock forecast
The KGC AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the July 31, 2026 close of $23.10. The financial-rigor model produced values near $56 in the bullish case, $33 in the base case, and $17 in the bearish case using explicit EPS-growth and terminal-PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$48 to $58
More likely if gold prices stabilize or climb from the current $4,040 area, Kinross meets or beats 2026 guidance for 2.0 million attributable ounces and $1,730 AISC, Paracatu and Tasiast keep outperforming, Lobo-Marte and Great Bear advance without cost overruns, free cash flow stays strong, and buybacks or dividends raise per-share value.
$28 to $36
More likely if gold trades around $4,000 to $4,300, production remains near guidance, margins stay healthy but normalize from peak, cost inflation and sustaining capital absorb part of the cash flow, and the stock re-rates toward the average analyst target near $36 without a fresh gold rally.
$12 to $18
More likely if gold prices decline materially toward $3,000, costs keep rising faster than the gold price, grades, recoveries, or throughput disappoint, a key mine misses plan, project capital spending at Lobo-Marte, Great Bear, Round Mountain Phase X, Curlew, or Redbird exceeds expectations, or valuation multiples contract.
KGC AI technical analysis
KGC AI technical analysis uses public market data available around the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close was $23.10, versus a 20-day moving average of $23.58, a 50-day moving average of $25.38, a 100-day moving average of $28.16, and a 200-day moving average of $28.89, with RSI at 42.48. This static page does not fetch request-time prices, so confirm live price, volume, moving averages, and momentum before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.10 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close, used for this static research snapshot. |
| Near support | $22.30 to $22.40 | The July 17 low of $22.29 and the July 31 low of $22.37 mark the recent pullback floor. It is not a guaranteed floor and should be confirmed on a live chart. |
| Deeper support | $20.00 | A lower round-number review point. A sustained break would require a fresh review of gold prices and the operating thesis. |
| Near resistance | $23.60 to $23.85 | The 20-day moving average near $23.58 and the July 30 high of $23.84 form the first upside zone to monitor. |
| Next resistance | $24.70 then $25.38 | The July 22 high of $24.70 and the reported 50-day moving average near $25.38 are the next trend-reclaim levels. |
| 50-day moving average | $25.38 | Price below it indicates short-term trend pressure in the July 31 snapshot. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.89 | A sustained reclaim of the 100-day near $28.16 and the 200-day near $28.89 would improve the longer-term technical read. |
| Momentum | RSI 42.48 | RSI was below neutral, which indicates weak short-term momentum rather than a reliable reversal signal. |
| Volume | About 7 million shares over 20 days | Breakouts and breakdowns deserve more weight when volume exceeds the recent average of roughly 7 million shares. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.41 | The reported five-year beta was above the market average, and 14-day historical volatility was near 33.5%. Gold-price moves and mine news can make position sizing important. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $22.00 | A confirmed loss of the $22.30 to $22.40 support area requires a fresh assessment of price action, gold prices, costs, and operating delivery. |
KGC AI trading strategy
The KGC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use live charts, current filings, defined position size, and an invalidation rule that fits your time horizon and loss limit.
Watch for KGC to reclaim and hold the 20-day moving average near $23.60 and then the 50-day moving average near $25.38 with stronger-than-average volume and a stabilizing or rising gold price before treating the trend as improving.
A failed reclaim or sustained close below the $22.30 to $22.40 support should invalidate the setup before losses become open-ended.
If KGC stabilizes near the $22.30 to $22.40 support while gold remains firm, compare any rebound with production guidance, cash costs, AISC, free cash flow, net cash, dividends, buybacks, and project milestones before assuming support will hold.
Do not average down solely because momentum is weak or the stock looks cheap. Reassess if gold prices, costs, safety, grades, or mine plans deteriorate.
Track attributable production, realized gold price, production cost of sales, AISC, operating cash flow, attributable free cash flow, net cash, reserve replacement, safety, project milestones at Lobo-Marte and Great Bear, dividends, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence when the case depends on high gold prices without matching operational delivery, cost control, and per-share capital allocation.
Investment research summary
Kinross turns permitted mineral reserves, mine infrastructure, processing capacity, and operating expertise into gold sales. The economic engine is the margin between realized gold prices and all-in mine costs, and in Q2 2026 that margin rose 42% year over year to $3,131 per ounce.
The moat is not consumer branding. It is the difficulty of reproducing a large reserve base, operating teams, processing infrastructure, permits, community relationships, technical knowledge, and financing capacity across mining jurisdictions, reinforced by a net-cash balance sheet and a funded development pipeline.
The thesis can fail if gold prices retreat while royalties, labour, energy, taxes, or contractor costs rise; if grades, recoveries, or throughput miss plan; if reserves are not replaced; if Lobo-Marte, Great Bear, Round Mountain Phase X, Curlew, or Redbird cost more or slip; or if country and permitting risks absorb cash.
Management is being tested on operational reliability and capital allocation: keeping the portfolio safe and predictable, preserving balance-sheet flexibility, funding long-life projects such as Lobo-Marte and Great Bear, and returning excess cash through the 40% free-cash-flow framework without overpaying for assets or shares. A planned COO succession to Bernard Wessels was announced in Q2 2026.
Gold demand can benefit from monetary uncertainty, central-bank buying, and inflation hedging, while large new discoveries remain difficult and gold has pulled back from a near $4,900 peak to about $4,040. Mining still faces cyclical prices, resource depletion, inflation, environmental duties, and long permitting timelines.
At $23.10, KGC trades on strong trailing cash generation at roughly 8.6 to 8.8x earnings and about 9x trailing free cash flow. Margin of safety depends on whether gold margins, operating delivery, disciplined capital spending, and net cash persist through a less favorable commodity cycle and whether the stock can reclaim its moving averages.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| KGC price | $23.10 at the July 31, 2026 close, after-hours $23.08, with a 52-week range of $15.78 to $39.11 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $27.33 billion reported, verified as $23.10 x 1,186,240,789 shares = $27.40 billion, a 0.26% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | 501,341 gold-equivalent ounces produced total and 492,326 attributable, with 499,035 sold total and 490,240 attributable | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 financial results | Metal sales of $2,238.1 million, operating earnings of $1,186.4 million, net earnings of $844.2 million or $0.71 per share, adjusted net earnings of $847.8 million or $0.71 per share | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 price, costs, and margins | Average realized gold price of $4,483 per ounce, up 37% year over year; production cost of sales of $1,352 per ounce and attributable $1,336; attributable AISC of $1,821 per ounce; margin of $3,131 per ounce, up 42% | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and capex | Operating cash flow of $1,145.9 million, attributable adjusted operating cash flow of $1,111.9 million, capital expenditures of $411.0 million total and $406.2 million attributable, and attributable free cash flow of $726.8 million | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, June 30, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $2,656.4 million, restricted cash of $15.9 million, long-term debt of $738.8 million, net cash of $1,918 million or $1.60 per share, total assets of $13,596.6 million, and common shareholders equity of $9,653.3 million, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release, StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financial profile | TTM revenue near $8,471 million, TTM net income near $3,178 million, TTM operating cash flow of $4,456 million, TTM free cash flow of $3,082 million, and reported TTM EPS of $2.63 on the statistics page | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7,051 million, up 36.95% from $5,149 million, cross-validated at 0.00% deviation between Kinross and StockAnalysis.com | Kinross FY2025 results and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $2,390 million, up 151.91% from $949 million, with FY2025 EPS of $1.95 | Kinross FY2025 results and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | 2.0 million attributable gold-equivalent ounces at a production cost of sales of $1,360 per ounce and AISC of $1,730 per ounce, each with a 5% variance band, and total attributable capital expenditures of $1,500 million | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Capital returns | About $230 million of shares repurchased in Q2 2026 or 7.9 million shares, about $520 million repurchased year-to-date or 17.3 million shares, over $600 million returned to shareholders in 2026 as of late July, and about $1.1 billion repurchased since April 2025 or roughly 4% of shares outstanding | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.04 per share declared, payable September 3, 2026, to holders of record August 20, 2026, for an annual rate near $0.16 or about a 0.69% yield at the current price | Kinross dividend declaration and StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 29, 2026 |
| Lobo-Marte update | Projected average of about 350,000 gold ounces per year at steady state with AISC near $1,000 per ounce, an NPV of $4.3 billion, IRR of 26%, and payback of 2.3 years at a $4,100 gold price, with about 6.7 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and an initial capital estimate near $1.8 billion | Kinross Lobo-Marte project update | July 29, 2026 |
| Great Bear progress | AEX surface construction about 93% complete with the first blast of the exploration decline on July 27, 2026, and Main Project detailed engineering about 50% complete, with Q2 drill intercepts including 1.1 meters at 27.6 g/t gold | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Management changes | Bernard Wessels appointed Chief Operating Officer to succeed Claude Schimper, who will retire later in 2026, and Alice Wong appointed to the Board of Directors on July 29, 2026 | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with an average price target of $36.01 across 18 analysts, low of $9.30 and high of $54, with a median near $38 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| July 2026 analyst actions | CIBC maintained $54, Stifel maintained $43, Scotiabank maintained $41, RBC trimmed to $39 from $40, and Bank of America trimmed to $33 from $46, with lower gold price forecasts driving several target cuts | StockAnalysis.com forecast, TipRanks, and TheFly | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue estimate of $9.39 billion with EPS of $2.81, and FY2027 revenue of $9.56 billion with EPS of $2.94 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 18.33 million shares short, about 1.55% of shares outstanding, with about 1.97 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 8.60 trailing PE, 7.56 forward PE, 3.23 PS, 2.80 PB, 8.94 P/FCF, 4.74 EV/EBITDA, and a 36.99% ROE per StockAnalysis.com; the local check computed 8.78x PE, 2.84x PB, and 8.95x P/FCF from third-party trailing inputs | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py local run | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average $23.58, 50-day moving average $25.38, 100-day moving average $28.16, 200-day moving average $28.89, RSI 42.48, 14-day ADX near 16, 20-day average volume about 7 million shares, and 14-day historical volatility near 33.5% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Gold price context | Spot gold was about $4,041.70 per ounce on August 2, 2026, down from a near $4,900 peak earlier in the year, versus Kinross Q2 2026 realized price of $4,483 per ounce | Kitco gold price today and Kinross Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed at 0.26% variance; FY2025 revenue and Q2 2026 free cash flow cross-validation passed at 0.00% and 0.01% deviation; valuation and three-scenario calculations were run locally | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | August 2, 2026 |
This KGC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if gold prices, costs, production, taxes, project outcomes, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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