Korea Electric Power Corporation research snapshot
KEP AI stock analysis views Korea Electric Power Corporation as a policy-linked Korean utility whose earnings rebounded strongly as power pricing and fuel costs improved. The business has regulated scale, a critical grid role, and FY2025 revenue of KRW 97.43 trillion with KRW 8.73 trillion of net income, but shareholders remain exposed to government tariff decisions, imported-fuel costs, the won, heavy debt, nuclear and grid capital spending, and the ADR discount to Korean-market value. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the July 9 NYSE close was $11.95. The KEP AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$11.95, July 9, 2026 close
Market cap
$15.34 billion, calculated from the ADR price and 1.284 billion common shares
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Earnings recovery and low multiple, offset by policy, fuel, currency, and leverage risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp pullback
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | KEPCO is South Korea’s central electricity transmission and distribution utility and owns generation subsidiaries, giving it essential-system scale but a policy-constrained return profile. | High |
| Moat | Regulated infrastructure, nationwide grid assets, operating scale, and statutory role create a strong operating moat. The shareholder moat is narrower because tariffs and investment returns are politically influenced. | High |
| Management | Management execution matters in fuel procurement, grid and nuclear investment, balance-sheet repair, safety, and regulatory engagement, but government ownership constrains purely shareholder-led capital allocation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4.3% to KRW 97.43 trillion, operating profit rose 61.7% to KRW 13.52 trillion, and net income reached KRW 8.73 trillion. Q1 2026 revenue was KRW 24.39 trillion and net income KRW 2.51 trillion. | High |
| Valuation | At $11.95, Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated about 2.56x FY2025 ADR earnings, 0.45x book value, and a 44.85% FCF yield using reported trailing data. These ratios are low, but utility earnings are not fully market-controlled. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close was below the reported $13.24 50-day average and $15.96 200-day average, with RSI 41.29. The stock is in a weak-to-neutral technical phase after its prior advance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high for a regulated utility ADR because total debt was about $86.31 billion in current market-data statistics, while fuel, FX, tariff, policy, nuclear, grid, and geopolitical outcomes can affect cash flow and valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | Published financial and ownership data are extensive, but static AI research cannot know the next tariff decision, fuel shock, currency move, or government financing choice. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Recent earnings make KEP screen cheaply, but investment certainty is lower than the data confidence because minority shareholders do not control the regulated-return framework. | Medium-low |
KEP AI stock forecast
The KEP AI stock forecast uses three scenarios anchored to the July 9, 2026 ADR close of $11.95 and a mechanical three-year earnings sensitivity. The Pineify calculation produced approximately $21.00 in a bullish case, $14.40 in a base case, and $7.30 in a bearish case. These are scenario outputs, not targets or promised returns, and policy, fuel, currency, and the ADR-to-local-share relationship can make actual results differ materially.
$18 to $21
More likely if tariff policy supports cost recovery, fuel and LNG costs stay manageable, the won stabilizes, nuclear availability and grid execution improve, debt metrics continue to repair, and investors accept a modestly higher multiple on sustainable earnings.
$11 to $15
More likely if profitability remains positive but normalizes, regulatory decisions broadly balance affordability and cost recovery, capital spending stays heavy, and the market retains a policy and leverage discount.
$7 to $10
More likely if fuel costs or the dollar rise, tariffs lag cost recovery, power demand or nuclear availability disappoints, financing needs increase, or policy again prioritizes consumer prices over shareholder returns.
KEP AI technical analysis
KEP AI technical analysis uses the latest available July 9, 2026 ADR statistics. The $11.95 close sat below the reported $13.24 50-day moving average and $15.96 200-day moving average; RSI was 41.29 and 20-day average volume was 1.12 million shares. These are reference levels, not a trading signal, and should be checked against a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $11.95 | NYSE ADR close reported by StockAnalysis for July 9, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $11.78 to $12.00 | The $11.78 52-week low and the July 9 close define the first downside reference zone. |
| Near resistance | $13.24 | Reported 50-day moving average as of the data cutoff. |
| Major resistance | $15.96 | Reported 200-day moving average as of the data cutoff. |
| Upper range reference | $23.41 | Reported 52-week high. It is a historical range marker, not a forecast target. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.29 | Below the midpoint, consistent with weak-to-neutral momentum rather than an oversold conclusion. |
| Volume | 1.12 million 20-day average shares | Use live ADR and Korean-market volume to test whether a move has broad participation. |
| Volatility | Policy, fuel, FX, and rates sensitive | Monitor LNG and coal prices, KRW/USD, electricity-tariff news, Korean rates, and KEPCO funding disclosures. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below $11.78 | A persistent move below the reported 52-week low would invalidate this range reference and calls for a fresh policy, earnings, and balance-sheet review. |
KEP AI trading strategy
The KEP AI trading strategy is a general research framework for a Korean utility ADR, not personal advice. It combines technical confirmation with policy, fuel, currency, and credit monitoring because these fundamentals can overwhelm a chart pattern.
Wait for the ADR to reclaim and hold the 50-day average near $13.24 with stable or improving fuel and currency conditions. Then check whether tariff and earnings updates support the move before treating it as a durable trend.
Treat failure back below the 50-day average, or a sustained break below $11.78, as a reason to reassess. Do not assume a low PE alone will reverse a weak trend.
Near the lower end of the range, compare the current ADR price with live Korean ordinary-share pricing, FX, recent tariff decisions, fuel costs, debt issuance, and the latest financial release before concluding that the discount is attractive.
Set an invalidation condition below the range low and avoid averaging down through a policy or fuel-cost shock without revisiting earnings and funding assumptions.
Track quarterly earnings, electricity-sales pricing, LNG and coal costs, KRW/USD, nuclear generation and outages, transmission investment, debt and interest expense, dividends, government ownership, and Korean energy-policy announcements.
Size any position for ADR, currency, regulatory, and leverage risk. A static page cannot assess an investor’s tax position, risk capacity, or local-market access.
Investment research summary
KEPCO earns from delivering electricity across South Korea through generation subsidiaries, a national transmission and distribution network, and related power projects. Customers pay because electricity is essential, but retail economics are shaped by policy as well as demand.
Grid infrastructure, regulated service responsibility, engineering capability, generation relationships, and national scale are difficult to replicate. The important distinction is that a strong operating moat does not guarantee a high or stable return to minority shareholders.
The thesis fails if fuel costs or the dollar rise faster than tariffs, regulation delays cost recovery, debt and interest expense crowd out cash flow, capital projects overrun, nuclear or grid execution disappoints, or public policy prioritizes affordability over returns.
Management should be judged on reliable power supply, fuel and FX risk discipline, nuclear and grid execution, debt reduction, transparent reporting, and capital allocation. Government ownership creates alignment with national energy policy but can reduce direct shareholder influence.
Electrification, data-center load, nuclear policy, renewable integration, transmission investment, and energy security can expand the need for KEPCO infrastructure. They also require capital, approvals, and cost recovery, so growth in assets is not automatically growth in per-share value.
At the $11.95 July 9 ADR close, financial_rigor.py verified 2.56x FY2025 earnings, 0.45x book value, and a 44.85% trailing FCF yield using available market-data inputs. The apparent margin of safety must be discounted for leverage, earnings cyclicality, ADR and FX effects, and the government-set return framework.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | KRW 97.43 trillion, up 4.3% year over year. Pineify cross-validation found a 0.00% difference between the Form 20-F figure of KRW 97.425 trillion and Yonhap’s rounded KRW 97.43 trillion report. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F and Yonhap News Agency | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating profit and net income | Operating profit was KRW 13.52 trillion and net income was KRW 8.73 trillion. The Form 20-F and Yonhap report agree on the net-income figure. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F and Yonhap News Agency | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 performance | Revenue was KRW 24.39 trillion, operating profit was KRW 3.78 trillion, and net income was KRW 2.51 trillion. | Yonhap report citing KEPCO regulatory filing | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | FY2025 cash and cash equivalents were KRW 2.241 trillion in both the Form 20-F and FY2025 Form 6-K financial statements. The Form 20-F reported KRW 120.005 trillion of total long-term debt including the current portion. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F and FY2025 financial statements Form 6-K | July 11, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow | FY2025 net cash provided by operating activities was KRW 20.880 trillion, compared with KRW 15.876 trillion in FY2024 and KRW 1.522 trillion in FY2023. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F | July 11, 2026 |
| Government ownership and operating role | The Republic of Korea held 18.20% directly in the 2025 Form 20-F disclosure. KEPCO operates generation, transmission, distribution, and electric-power development activities in the Republic of Korea. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F | July 11, 2026 |
| ADR price, market-cap, and technical references | The July 9 close was $11.95. Pineify financial_rigor.py verified $11.95 multiplied by 1,283,928,154 common shares equals $15.34 billion with 0.00% variance. StockAnalysis reported a $13.24 50-day average, $15.96 200-day average, RSI 41.29, and 20-day average volume of 1.12 million shares. | StockAnalysis, CompaniesMarketCap, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation arithmetic | Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated 2.56x PE, 0.45x PB, 17.62% ROE, 2.23x P/FCF, 44.85% FCF yield, and 3.43% dividend yield using $11.95 price, $4.66 EPS, $26.44 book value per ADR, $5.36 FCF per ADR, and $0.41 dividend per ADR. | Pineify financial_rigor.py using source-backed market-data inputs | July 11, 2026 |
This KEP page is an informational research tool, not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and can be wrong. Korea Electric Power Corporation is exposed to government policy, regulated tariffs, fuel costs, foreign exchange, debt, capital spending, and ADR-market risks. Verify live quotes, Korean-market data, filings, and your own risk constraints before acting.
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