Korea Electric Power Corporation research snapshot
KEP AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff views Korea Electric Power Corporation as a policy-linked Korean utility whose earnings recovered strongly while the ADR gave back part of its earlier gain. The audited FY2025 Form 20-F shows consolidated sales of Won 96,568 billion (KRW 96.57 trillion), operating profit of Won 14,011 billion, and net income attributable to owners of Won 8,545 billion, and Q1 2026 net income rose 6.7% to KRW 2.51 trillion, slightly above consensus. At the July 31, 2026 close of $11.95 the ADR trades at about 2.72x trailing earnings with a 3.47% dividend yield, but shareholders remain exposed to government tariff decisions, imported fuel costs, the won, total debt near $86.3 billion in current market-data statistics, nuclear and grid capital spending, and a June 2026 Morgan Stanley downgrade to Underweight with a KRW 29,000 target. The KEP AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$11.95, July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$15.34 billion, verified as the ADR price times the ADR-adjusted share base and matching CompaniesMarketCap and Nasdaq; StockAnalysis reports $15.54 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Earnings recovery and a low multiple, offset by policy, fuel, currency, leverage, a June 2026 Morgan Stanley downgrade, and an ADR premium to Korean-market value
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with neutral momentum after a sharp pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | KEPCO is South Korea’s central electricity transmission and distribution utility and owns generation subsidiaries, giving it essential-system scale but a policy-constrained return profile. | High |
| Moat | Regulated infrastructure, nationwide grid assets, operating scale, and statutory role create a strong operating moat. The shareholder moat is narrower because tariffs and investment returns are politically influenced. | High |
| Management | Management execution matters in fuel procurement, grid and nuclear investment, balance-sheet repair, safety, and regulatory engagement, but government ownership constrains purely shareholder-led capital allocation. Kim, Dong-Cheol has been President and CEO since September 2023. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Audited FY2025 consolidated sales rose 4.3% to KRW 96.57 trillion, operating profit rose 65.6% to KRW 14.01 trillion, and net income attributable to owners reached KRW 8.54 trillion. Q1 2026 revenue was KRW 24.39 trillion, operating profit KRW 3.78 trillion, and net income KRW 2.51 trillion, up 6.7%. | High |
| Valuation | At $11.95, Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated about 2.72x trailing earnings, 0.45x book value, 4.33x free cash flow, a 23.10% FCF yield, and a 3.43% dividend yield using source-backed market-data inputs. These ratios are low, but utility earnings are not fully market-controlled. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $11.95 was below the reported $12.37 50-day average and $15.86 200-day average, with RSI 48.60. The stock sits just above its $11.25 52-week low in a weak-to-neutral technical phase. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high for a regulated utility ADR because total debt was about $86.31 billion in current market-data statistics, while fuel, FX, tariff, policy, nuclear, grid, a June 2026 Morgan Stanley downgrade to Underweight, and a potential ADR premium to Korean-market value can affect cash flow and valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | Published financial and ownership data are extensive and were re-verified during this refresh, but static AI research cannot know the next tariff decision, fuel shock, currency move, or government financing choice. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Recent earnings make KEP screen cheaply, but investment certainty is lower than the data confidence because minority shareholders do not control the regulated-return framework and analysts have recently turned more cautious. | Medium-low |
KEP AI stock forecast
The KEP AI stock forecast uses three scenarios anchored to the July 31, 2026 ADR close of $11.95 and a mechanical three-year earnings sensitivity. The Pineify calculation produced approximately $21.60 in a bullish case, $14.40 in a base case, and $7.30 in a bearish case. These are scenario outputs, not targets or promised returns, and policy, fuel, currency, debt funding, and the ADR-to-local-share relationship can make actual results differ materially.
$18 to $21
More likely if tariff policy supports cost recovery, fuel and LNG costs stay manageable, the won stabilizes, nuclear availability and grid execution improve, debt metrics continue to repair, and investors accept a modestly higher multiple on sustainable earnings.
$11 to $15
More likely if profitability remains positive but normalizes, regulatory decisions broadly balance affordability and cost recovery, capital spending stays heavy, and the market retains a policy, leverage, and analyst-ratings discount.
$7 to $10
More likely if fuel costs or the dollar rise, tariffs lag cost recovery, power demand or nuclear availability disappoints, financing needs increase, the ADR premium to Korean-market value narrows, or policy again prioritizes consumer prices over shareholder returns.
KEP AI technical analysis
KEP AI technical analysis uses the latest available July 31, 2026 ADR statistics. The $11.95 close sat below the reported $12.37 50-day moving average and $15.86 200-day moving average; RSI was 48.60 and 20-day average volume was 1.19 million shares. The stock set a fresh 52-week low of $11.25 on July 17, 2026. These are reference levels, not a trading signal, and should be checked against a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $11.95 | NYSE ADR close reported by StockAnalysis for July 31, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $11.25 to $11.95 | The $11.25 52-week low set on July 17, 2026 and the July 31 close define the first downside reference zone. |
| Near resistance | $12.37 | Reported 50-day moving average as of the data cutoff. |
| Major resistance | $15.86 | Reported 200-day moving average as of the data cutoff. |
| Upper range reference | $23.41 | Reported 52-week high. It is a historical range marker, not a forecast target. |
| Momentum | RSI 48.60 | Near the midpoint, consistent with neutral rather than oversold or strongly bullish momentum. |
| Volume | 1.19 million 20-day average shares | Use live ADR and Korean-market volume to test whether a move has broad participation. |
| Volatility | Policy, fuel, FX, and rates sensitive | Monitor LNG and coal prices, KRW/USD, electricity-tariff news, Korean rates, analyst actions, and KEPCO funding disclosures. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below $11.25 | A persistent move below the reported 52-week low would invalidate this range reference and calls for a fresh policy, earnings, and balance-sheet review. |
KEP AI trading strategy
The KEP AI trading strategy is a general research framework for a Korean utility ADR, not personal advice. It combines technical confirmation with policy, fuel, currency, analyst, and credit monitoring because these fundamentals can overwhelm a chart pattern.
Wait for the ADR to reclaim and hold the 50-day average near $12.37 with stable or improving fuel and currency conditions. Then check whether tariff, earnings, and analyst updates support the move before treating it as a durable trend.
Treat failure back below the 50-day average, or a sustained break below $11.25, as a reason to reassess. Do not assume a low PE alone will reverse a weak trend.
Near the lower end of the range, compare the current ADR price with live Korean ordinary-share pricing, FX, recent tariff decisions, fuel costs, analyst ratings, debt issuance, and the latest financial release before concluding that the discount is attractive.
Set an invalidation condition below the range low and avoid averaging down through a policy or fuel-cost shock without revisiting earnings and funding assumptions.
Track quarterly earnings, electricity-sales pricing, LNG and coal costs, KRW/USD, nuclear generation and outages, transmission investment, debt and interest expense, dividends, government ownership, analyst actions such as the June 2026 Morgan Stanley downgrade, and Korean energy-policy announcements.
Size any position for ADR, currency, regulatory, and leverage risk. A static page cannot assess an investor’s tax position, risk capacity, or local-market access.
Investment research summary
KEPCO earns from delivering electricity across South Korea through generation subsidiaries, a national transmission and distribution network, and related power projects such as the $1.4 billion Aramco Jafurah cogeneration deal won in June 2026. Customers pay because electricity is essential, but retail economics are shaped by policy as well as demand.
Grid infrastructure, regulated service responsibility, engineering capability, generation relationships, and national scale are difficult to replicate. The important distinction is that a strong operating moat does not guarantee a high or stable return to minority shareholders.
The thesis fails if fuel costs or the dollar rise faster than tariffs, regulation delays cost recovery, debt and interest expense crowd out cash flow, capital projects overrun, nuclear or grid execution disappoints, the ADR premium to Korean-market value narrows, or public policy prioritizes affordability over returns.
Management should be judged on reliable power supply, fuel and FX risk discipline, nuclear and grid execution, debt reduction, transparent reporting, and capital allocation. Government ownership creates alignment with national energy policy but can reduce direct shareholder influence.
Electrification, data-center load, nuclear policy, renewable integration, transmission investment, and energy security can expand the need for KEPCO infrastructure. Vietnam has discussed KEPCO as a partner for its second nuclear plant, which could add overseas optionality. These opportunities also require capital, approvals, and cost recovery, so growth in assets is not automatically growth in per-share value.
At the $11.95 July 31 ADR close, financial_rigor.py verified 2.72x trailing earnings, 0.45x book value, 4.33x free cash flow, and a 23.10% FCF yield using available market-data inputs. The apparent margin of safety must be discounted for leverage, earnings cyclicality, ADR and FX effects, a June 2026 Morgan Stanley downgrade to Underweight, and the government-set return framework.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | Audited consolidated sales were Won 96,568 billion (KRW 96.57 trillion), up 4.3% year over year. Pineify cross-validation uses the audited consolidated income statement as primary; the 20-F segment table total of KRW 97.43 trillion reflects the segment reporting basis. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F consolidated statements and MD&A | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating profit and net income | Audited operating profit was Won 14,011 billion (KRW 14.01 trillion), up 65.6% year over year. Net income attributable to owners was Won 8,545 billion (KRW 8.54 trillion), with total profit for the year of Won 8,667 billion (KRW 8.67 trillion). | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F consolidated statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 performance | Revenue was KRW 24.39 trillion, operating profit was KRW 3.78 trillion, and net income was KRW 2.51 trillion, up 6.7% year over year and above the KRW 2.47 trillion consensus estimate. | Yonhap report citing KEPCO regulatory filing | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | FY2025 cash and cash equivalents were Won 2,241 billion. The Form 20-F reported Won 120,005 billion of total long-term debt including the current portion. StockAnalysis current market statistics show cash of $3.99 billion, total debt of $86.31 billion, and net debt of $82.32 billion. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow | FY2025 net cash provided by operating activities was Won 20,880 billion, compared with Won 15,876 billion in FY2024 and Won 1,522 billion in FY2023. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F | August 2, 2026 |
| Government ownership and operating role | The Republic of Korea held 18.20% directly in the 2025 Form 20-F disclosure and Korea Development Bank held 32.90%, for combined public-sector control above 50%. KEPCO operated 26 nuclear units with 26,050 MW of installed capacity at an 84.6% average capacity factor as of December 31, 2025. | KEPCO 2025 Form 20-F | August 2, 2026 |
| ADR price, market-cap, and technical references | The July 31 close was $11.95. Pineify financial_rigor.py verified $11.95 times the ADR-adjusted share base equals $15.34 billion with 0.02% variance against CompaniesMarketCap and Nasdaq, which both report $15.34 billion; StockAnalysis reports $15.54 billion. StockAnalysis reported a $12.37 50-day average, $15.86 200-day average, RSI 48.60, and 20-day average volume of 1.19 million shares, with a 52-week range of $11.25 to $23.41. | StockAnalysis, CompaniesMarketCap, Nasdaq, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation arithmetic | Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated 2.72x PE, 0.45x PB, 16.69% ROE, 4.33x P/FCF, 23.10% FCF yield, and 3.43% dividend yield using the $11.95 price and source-backed inputs of $4.39 trailing EPS, $26.30 book value per ADR, $2.76 FCF per ADR, and $0.41 dividend per ADR. | Pineify financial_rigor.py using source-backed market-data inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst action | In June 2026 Morgan Stanley downgraded Korea Electric Power to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of KRW 29,000, down from KRW 50,000, citing the ADR premium and policy and fuel-cost exposure. | StockAnalysis news feed citing Morgan Stanley via TheFly | August 2, 2026 |
This KEP page is an informational research tool, not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and can be wrong. Korea Electric Power Corporation is exposed to government policy, regulated tariffs, fuel costs, foreign exchange, debt, capital spending, analyst ratings, and ADR-market risks. Verify live quotes, Korean-market data, filings, and your own risk constraints before acting.
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