KB Home research snapshot
KBH AI stock analysis reads KB Home as a U.S. homebuilder that targets the affordable segment of the housing market, with about half of sales to first-time buyers. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, KBH closed at $57.38 on July 10, 2026. The company delivered 12,902 homes in fiscal 2025 with revenue of $6.21 billion and an average selling price of $481,400. TTM financials show revenue of about $5.5 billion, net income of $269.45 million, and EPS of $4.11. The stock trades at 13.96x TTM earnings and 0.91x book value, with a 1.74% dividend yield. As a cyclical homebuilder, KB Home faces headwinds from mortgage rates, housing affordability, incentives, and land costs, while benefiting from demographic demand and limited existing-home inventory. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$57.38
Market cap
$3.52 billion verified (Yahoo Finance: $3.518B)
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Cyclical homebuilder with affordable product focus, offset by mortgage rate and incentive risk
Trend status
Near the middle of the 52-week range ($44.03 to $68.71), with mixed Barchart signals (8% Sell) and analyst consensus at Hold with a $58.25 average target
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | KB Home builds and sells single-family homes primarily for first-time and first move-up buyers across nine states. Revenue is cyclical and driven by home deliveries, ASP, and community count. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from local land positions, national purchasing scale, relationships with suppliers and lenders, and a brand built over 65 years. The moat is narrower than larger peers because KBH competes more on price and incentives in a fragmented industry. | Medium |
| Management | Management aims to grow community count, manage inventory and land spending, control incentives, and allocate capital between buybacks and land investment. Key person risk is manageable given the size and team depth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY25 revenue of $6.21 billion with net income of about $344 million for the fiscal year. TTM revenue through May 2026 is approximately $5.5 billion with net income of $269.45 million, reflecting margin pressure from incentives. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $57.38, KBH trades at 13.96x TTM EPS, 0.91x book value, and offers a 1.74% dividend yield. The three-year scenario model produced bearish near $35, base near $62, and bullish near $88, compared to the current price of $57.38. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart shows an 8% Sell overall with mixed moving average signals. Short-term indicators are mixed, medium-term show a 50-day MA buy but sell on crossovers, and long-term show buys on 100 and 150-day MA with sell on 200-day MA. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include rising mortgage rates reducing affordability, higher incentives compressing margins, land and labor cost inflation, cancellation rate increases, regional economic concentration, and potential home price declines in a downturn. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, SEC-filed financials, operating metrics, and audited calculations. Medium for future price ranges because homebuilder earnings depend on mortgage rate direction, housing supply, buyer sentiment, and incentive trends. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. KBH has a viable niche in affordable housing and benefits from demographic demand, but cyclical earnings risk, incentive pressure, and the current valuation near the midpoint of the 52-week range leave limited margin of safety. | Medium-low |
KBH AI stock forecast
The KBH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $57.38 close, the TTM EPS of $4.11, and estimated EPS growth consistent with homebuilding cycles. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $35, a base area near $62, and a bullish area near $88.
$80 to $95
More likely if mortgage rates decline, housing demand improves, KBH grows community count and deliveries at healthy pace, incentives stabilize or decline, gross margins improve, and the market values KBH around 16x forward earnings.
$56 to $68
More likely if EPS grows near 5%, housing conditions remain stable but unexciting, incentive levels persist near current rates, deliveries hold steady, and the market values KBH around 13x forward earnings.
$30 to $40
More likely if mortgage rates rise further, affordability deteriorates, incentives increase and compress margins, cancellation rates rise, home prices decline, or a broader economic slowdown reduces housing demand.
KBH AI technical analysis
KBH AI technical analysis shows mixed signals as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. KBH closed at $57.38 on July 10, 2026, near the middle of its 52-week range. Barchart technical indicators show a weak 8% Sell signal with conflicting moving average signals across timeframes.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $57.38 | KBH closed at $57.38 on July 10, 2026, with a previous close of $56.35 and a day range of $56.20 to $57.43. |
| Near support | $55.71 | Barchart listed first support (S1) near $55.71 based on pivot point calculations after the July 10 close. |
| Secondary support | $55.11 | Barchart listed second support (S2) near $55.11, representing a moderate pullback level. |
| Structural support | $53.96 | Barchart listed third support (S3) near $53.96. A close below this level would weaken the current neutral-to-bearish setup. |
| Near resistance | $57.47 | Barchart listed first resistance (R1) near $57.47, just above the current close and a key near-term obstacle. |
| Secondary resistance | $58.62 to $59.22 | Barchart listed second and third resistance at $58.62 (R2) and $59.22 (R3), representing the next hurdles for upside momentum. |
| 52-week high | $68.71 | KBH reported a 52-week high of $68.71. Breaking above this level would require a significant catalyst in housing demand or rates. |
| 52-week low | $44.03 | The 52-week low of $44.03 represents the lower bound of the trading range during market stress in the past year. |
| Momentum | 8% Sell on Barchart | Barchart composite indicator shows 8% Sell with mixed crossovers: 20-day MA is sell, 50-day MA is buy, 100 and 150-day MA are buy, 200-day MA is sell. |
| Volume | 225,153 vs ~1.24M average | Yahoo Finance reported volume of 225,153 against an average volume of about 1.24 million shares, suggesting below-average participation. |
| Volatility | Beta of 1.33 | The 1.33 beta is typical for a cyclical homebuilder, indicating higher volatility than the broader market. Earnings reports, housing data, and rate decisions can create outsized moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $53.96 | A decisive close below the $53.96 structural support would weaken the current setup and shift attention toward the lower end of the trading range. |
KBH AI trading strategy
The KBH AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a cyclical homebuilder. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, mortgage rate trends, housing data reports, earnings calendars, position sizing, and a predefined invalidation level.
Watch for KBH to hold above the $55.71 support level and break above the $57.47 resistance on above-average volume. Confirmation should include stabilizing or declining mortgage rates, improving builder sentiment data, and constructive earnings or order trends.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $55.71, or a rejection at resistance with declining volume, should reduce confidence in the near-term trend setup.
If KBH pulls back toward the $53 to $55 zone without a guidance cut or rate shock, evaluate the risk-reward based on order trends, cancellation rates, incentive levels, and housing data before assuming support will hold.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. Homebuilder stocks can gap lower when rate changes or economic data surprises the market.
Track quarterly earnings for net orders, cancellation rates, community count, ASP, incentives as a percentage of revenue, gross margins, SG&A leverage, and land spend. Monitor housing starts, existing home sales, mortgage rates, and builder confidence indices.
Reduce confidence if orders decline sequentially, cancellations rise above historical norms, incentives cut deeply into gross margins, or land spending outpaces demand visibility.
Investment research summary
KB Home is paid to build and sell single-family homes to first-time and first move-up buyers across nine U.S. states. Customers pay for a home they can afford in a community they choose, with KBH managing the land acquisition, development, construction, and sales process.
KBH has a modest moat from local land expertise, supplier relationships, brand recognition over 65 years, and purchasing scale. The moat is narrower than larger peers because homebuilding remains fragmented, entry barriers are low for well-capitalized competitors, and site-specific land positions are replicable.
The thesis fails if mortgage rates stay elevated and crush affordability, incentives spiral higher to move inventory, land costs rise faster than selling prices, cancellations increase, the economy enters a recession that reduces housing demand, or new home supply floods the market.
Management should be judged by community count growth, net order trends, incentive discipline, gross margin stability, land pipeline management, inventory turns, share buyback timing and volume, and the ability to navigate the housing cycle without overpaying for land.
KBH operates in the long-duration housing market supported by demographic demand from millennials and Gen Z forming households. Offsetting factors include affordability constraints from elevated home prices versus incomes, mortgage rate sensitivity, and competition from existing home supply when rates stabilize.
At 13.96x TTM EPS and 0.91x book value, KBH prices in a moderate housing environment. The margin of safety improves if the price retreats toward the $53 to $55 support zone while orders and margins remain stable. The current valuation leaves limited room for rate or demand deterioration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| KBH price | $57.38 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance KBH summary page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.52 billion verified as $57.38 x 61.31 million shares, versus $3.518B reported by Yahoo Finance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.22 billion | Yahoo Finance KBH key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.5 billion | Yahoo Finance KBH financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $269.45 million | Yahoo Finance KBH financials | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $4.11 | Yahoo Finance KBH statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 13.96x, verified by financial_rigor.py as 57.38 / 4.11 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Price/book | 0.91x, verified by financial_rigor.py as 57.38 / 63.05 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $63.05 | Calculated from Price/Book 0.91x | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $1.00 annual dividend, 1.74% yield verified by financial_rigor.py | Yahoo Finance KBH summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 61.31 million as of May 31, 2026 | YCharts KBH shares outstanding | July 12, 2026 |
| Total cash and debt | $199.82 million cash, 51.85% debt/equity ratio | Yahoo Finance KBH statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Profit margin and ROE | 4.90% profit margin, 6.99% ROE verified by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward PE | 17.33x | Yahoo Finance KBH statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Barchart 8% Sell, support at $55.71/$55.11/$53.96, resistance at $57.47/$58.62/$59.22 | Barchart KBH opinion page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bearish ~$35 (-2% growth, 9x PE), Base ~$62 (5% growth, 13x PE), Bullish ~$88 (10% growth, 16x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | $58.25 average, $43 low, $77 high. Barclays: Overweight, PT raised from $56 to $57 on June 25, 2026 | Yahoo Finance KBH analysis page | July 12, 2026 |
This KBH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, mortgage rates, housing data, incentives, land costs, cancellations, economic conditions, or market sentiment changes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
