The St. Joe Company research snapshot
The St. Joe Company reported record second quarter 2026 results on July 29, 2026, with revenue of $158.9 million, up 23% year over year, and net income of $40.5 million, up 37%, the strongest second quarter in company history. Residential revenue rose 39%, and gross margins improved in every segment (residential 48%, hospitality 42%, commercial 65%). Management repurchased $32.7 million of stock in the quarter and reduced the share count to 56.93 million, the lowest in nearly 30 years. JOE AI stock analysis prices the shares at $63.49 as of August 3, 2026, for a market value of about $3.61 billion, with a trailing P/E near 29x and a dividend yield of 1.01%. The AI score is 63 out of 100, reflecting a high-quality land bank, record profitability, and improving capital allocation against a premium valuation and concentrated Florida exposure. This page uses conditional scenarios for the JOE AI stock forecast and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$63.49
Market cap
$3.61 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Vertically integrated Northwest Florida land developer with record 2026 profitability, expanding margins, and disciplined buybacks, trading at a premium to book value
Trend status
Consolidating near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, in the middle of the yearly price range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | St. Joe is a vertically integrated land developer and operator holding roughly 165,000 acres of mostly entitled land in Northwest Florida, spanning residential lots, commercial development, hospitality, timber, and ancillary services. Q2 2026 revenue of $158.9 million was the strongest second quarter in 20 years. | High |
| Moat | Scarcity of developable land, a low-cost land base held for decades, approved entitlements under the Bay-Walton Sector Plan, and vertical integration across brokerage, title, insurance, and club services create durable advantages that are geographically concentrated. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jorge Gonzalez and CFO Marek Bakun delivered record quarterly results, expanded margins in every segment, repurchased $32.7 million of stock in Q2 and $41 million in 2026, and cut the share count to the lowest level in nearly 30 years. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue reached $547.8 million with net income of $123.1 million. FY2025 revenue grew 27.4% to $513.25 million with net income of $115.63 million. TTM free cash flow is about $212 million per StockAnalysis, and the balance sheet holds $117 million in cash against $551 million of debt. | High |
| Valuation | At $63.49 and a $3.61 billion market cap, JOE trades near 29x trailing earnings, 4.6x book value, and 6.5x sales, with a 1.01% dividend yield. The premium requires sustained growth and multiple maintenance. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The August 3, 2026 price of $63.49 sits near the 50-day moving average of $63.15 and the 200-day moving average of $63.26, in the middle of the $46.37 to $73.54 52-week range, with an RSI near 50 and beta of 1.29. | Medium |
| Risk level | Moderate to high. Key risks include geographic concentration in Northwest Florida, hurricane and climate exposure, mortgage rate sensitivity, rising insurance costs, and thin analyst coverage. | High |
| AI confidence | SEC filings, earnings releases, and the Q2 2026 earnings call support the descriptive analysis and figures. Projections about land absorption, commercial leasing, and hotel demand rely on macro assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | JOE combines a scarce land asset with record profitability and improving shareholder returns, but the valuation leaves limited margin of safety. This page is a research framework, not personal advice. | Low to medium |
JOE AI stock forecast
The JOE AI stock forecast uses conditional scenario ranges. A base case points to the stock trading near current levels as steady growth is offset by a high starting valuation, while upside depends on faster lot absorption, higher recurring income, and buyback-driven per-share earnings growth.
$85 to $105 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if Florida in-migration accelerates, mortgage rates decline, lot sales to builders such as PulteGroup ramp, commercial and hospitality income keeps expanding, and the stock re-rates toward 30x or higher on improved recurring earnings.
$55 to $70 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if population growth and lot sales continue at a steady pace, interest rates stay stable, recurring revenue keeps growing, and the stock holds near its historical 25 to 30x P/E band.
$30 to $45 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if mortgage rates rise sharply, a major hurricane or insurance-cost shock hits Northwest Florida, homebuilder demand contracts, or the market re-rates the stock toward a lower multiple consistent with pure land development.
JOE AI technical analysis
JOE AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 public snapshot of $63.49, a 52-week range of $46.37 to $73.54, a 50-day moving average of $63.15, a 200-day moving average of $63.26, an RSI near 50, and a beta of 1.29. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $63.49 | Intraday quote on August 3, 2026; last confirmed close was $62.24 on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $60 to $61 | The zone around the early-July lows near $59.6 to $60.2. A close below this area would test deeper support. |
| Major support | $55 to $58 | The pre-breakout base that held through 2026. A sustained close below it would open the path toward the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low | $46.37 | Set in October 2025. A retest would represent a full reversion to the prior cycle low. |
| Near resistance | $65 to $66 | The June consolidation zone. A close above it would signal renewed upward momentum. |
| Major resistance | $72 to $74 | The 52-week high of $73.54 from March 2026. A breakout above it would mark a new uptrend leg. |
| 52-week range | $46.37 to $73.54 | The stock trades in the middle of the yearly band near its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $63.15, 200-day $63.26 | Price is roughly flat to these averages, indicating a balanced technical position with no clear trend signal. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50 | Neutral momentum after a pullback from the June high and a partial recovery. Recheck RSI and MACD in a live chart. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 232,000 shares | Liquidity is modest versus large caps, so moves can be amplified on low volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.29 | Moderate market sensitivity; sector, interest rate, and hurricane news can cause larger gaps. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $60 | A sustained close below the near support zone invalidates the constructive outlook until a new base forms. |
JOE AI trading strategy
The JOE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It pairs technical confirmation with lot sales, commercial leasing, hospitality trends, buyback execution, and capital allocation updates.
Watch for JOE to hold $60 to $61, reclaim the area above the 50-day moving average, and then challenge $65 to $66 on above-average volume. Pair price strength with evidence of accelerating lot sales, new builder contracts, or commercial lease signings.
Define risk before entry. A failed recovery or decisive close below $60 can serve as a rules-based invalidation.
If JOE approaches the $55 to $58 major support zone without a thesis-breaking event such as a hurricane loss or homebuilder demand collapse, watch for volume exhaustion and improving price action before considering a position.
Do not average down because the price fell. The setup breaks if the Florida macro narrative or company fundamentals deteriorate.
Track quarterly residential lot closings, segment gross margins, commercial lease-up, hotel RevPAR, free cash flow, debt levels, dividend growth, buyback pace, and Florida panhandle population and employment data.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, hurricanes, interest rate decisions, and material land or capital allocation events.
Investment research summary
St. Joe owns and develops roughly 165,000 acres of mostly entitled land in Northwest Florida, selling residential lots to homebuilders, developing commercial and retail space, operating hotels, golf, beach clubs, and marinas, and providing title, insurance, and brokerage services. Customers pay for access to scarce, high-amenity coastal land in a fast-growing region.
A 50-year Bay-Walton Sector Plan, decades of low-cost land holdings, and vertical integration across development, brokerage, title, insurance, and club services capture more value per acre than a pure land seller. New utility corridors and community infrastructure deepen the development runway.
The thesis fails if Florida migration slows, mortgage rates stay high, a major hurricane or insurance cost shock damages the portfolio, homebuilders cut lot purchases, or commercial tenants vacate. Competing supply from other regional landowners and continued large-shareholder selling are additional failure paths.
Jorge Gonzalez and Marek Bakun have expanded margins in every segment, repurchased $41 million of stock in 2026, reduced shares to 56.93 million, and kept a long-term buyback model while funding growth capex and dividends. Plans to develop two utility corridors and a teaching hospital signal long-horizon investment.
Florida remains one of the fastest-growing US states, and the Panama City metro has ranked near the top for population growth. The shift toward lower-cost coastal living and remote work supports long-term demand. A planned aerospace research and development center in Bay County could broaden the local economy.
At a $3.61 billion market value and $3.98 billion enterprise value, JOE trades near 29x trailing earnings, 4.6x book value, and 6.5x sales. The three-scenario framework brackets the current price, implying limited margin of safety at these levels without faster growth or multiple expansion. The 1.01% dividend yield provides modest income support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOE price | $63.49 intraday on Aug 3, 2026; prior close $62.24 on Jul 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.61 billion, verified as $63.49 x 56.93 million shares with 0.12% deviation | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 56.93 million as of Jul 27, 2026, the lowest in nearly 30 years | Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $547.84 million, up 28.4% | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $123.05 million, up 48.7% | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $158.9 million (+23%), net income $40.5 million (+37%), record second quarter | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment gross margins | Residential 48%, hospitality 42%, commercial 65% | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $117.32 million cash, $551.48 million total debt | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM $212.29 million (per StockAnalysis statistics); FY2025 free cash flow $166.88 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation statistics | $3.61B market cap, $3.98B enterprise value, 29.19x P/E, 4.64x P/B, 6.47x P/S, 16.69x P/FCF, 1.01% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 52-week range $46.37 to $73.54, beta 1.29, 50-day MA $63.15, 200-day MA $63.26, RSI 50.16, 20-day average volume 232,363 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Land holdings and entitlements | Roughly 165,000 acres of mostly entitled land in Northwest Florida under the Bay-Walton Sector Plan | Q2 2026 earnings call and company website | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $513.25 million (+27.4%), net income $115.63 million (+55.9%), diluted EPS $1.99 | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $0.64 (1.01% yield), $0.16 per quarter, ex-dividend date Aug 21, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page | August 4, 2026 |
This JOE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on public data and may be wrong. Prices, technical levels, SEC filings, development plans, interest rates, real estate market conditions, and company plans can change.
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