Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc research snapshot
JAZZ AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc as a high-quality rare-disease biopharma with strong Q1 2026 execution, a 19% revenue increase, a cheap forward valuation near 10x non-GAAP earnings, and a major binary catalyst in front of it: the zanidatamab supplemental Biologics License Application in first-line HER2-positive gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma has a PDUFA date of August 25, 2026. At the cutoff, JAZZ closed at $252.86 on July 31, 2026, down 2.14% on the day and about 3% below its 52-week high of $261.30, with a market capitalization near $15.88 billion, re-verified during this refresh as $252.86 times 62.82 million shares with a 0.03% deviation across StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py. The positive case rests on Xywav growing 18% in Q1 2026 with 425 net patient adds, Epidiolex up 15%, Modeyso ramping, and 2026 revenue guidance of $4.25 billion to $4.50 billion reaffirmed. The offsetting risks are the Phase 3 LAGOON trial failure for Zepzelca in second-line small cell lung cancer announced June 12, 2026, which Reuters said potentially risks its current regulatory status, the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report on August 3, 2026, the binary zanidatamab PDUFA, roughly $5.4 billion of debt, and a stock that has risen about 118% over 52 weeks. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$252.86
Market cap
$15.88 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality rare-disease platform, binary catalyst ahead
Trend status
Uptrend intact but pulling back from the 52-week high near $261
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Jazz is a global biopharma focused on rare and serious diseases, with a diversified neuroscience and oncology portfolio, more than $4.4 billion in trailing revenue, strong gross margins, and growing free cash flow. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from orphan-drug exclusivity, patent protection, specialist commercial teams, and patient access programs. Xywav has defended its position against generic Xyrem, and zanidatamab is positioned to become the HER2-targeted agent of choice in first-line gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma if approved. | Medium-high |
| Management | Renee Gala became CEO in August 2025 after serving as CFO, President, and COO. The team delivered 19% revenue growth in Q1 2026, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, managed the LAGOON disclosure, and continued disciplined capital allocation including a priority review voucher sale. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 total revenues grew 19% year over year to $1.07 billion, GAAP diluted EPS was $4.43, and non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $6.34. TTM free cash flow is about $1.27 billion, while TTM GAAP net income of $29.45 million is distorted by a large 2025 charge and is not representative of the run rate. | High |
| Valuation | At the cutoff, JAZZ traded near 10.3x forward non-GAAP earnings and about 12.5x trailing free cash flow, with a 8.0% free cash flow yield. The TTM GAAP PE near 539 is distorted and not useful. The valuation is low for success, but the margin of safety has narrowed after the 52-week rally. | Medium |
| Technical trend | JAZZ closed at $252.86 on July 31, 2026, above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day average, with RSI near 58 and the stock about 3% below the 52-week high of $261.30 after a pullback from that level. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are the zanidatamab PDUFA and launch execution, the Zepzelca LAGOON failure and its regulatory and commercial consequences, Xyrem and oxybate generic pressure, pipeline trial outcomes, pricing and payor pressure, and about $5.4 billion of debt. | High |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for reported financials, market data, product facts, and cross-checked math. Lower confidence for the zanidatamab approval outcome, Zepzelca franchise recovery, and future price targets. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The business is strong and the forward valuation is low, but the stock has already moved a long way and the next few weeks hold a binary FDA event and an earnings report. | Medium |
JAZZ AI stock forecast
The JAZZ AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $252.86 July 31, 2026 close, not a guaranteed price. The bullish case depends on zanidatamab approval on or before August 25, 2026, a strong launch, continued Xywav and Epidiolex growth, and the market holding a double-digit forward multiple. The base case assumes 2026 guidance is met, consensus non-GAAP EPS near $25.31 for 2026 is delivered, and the stock keeps a roughly 10x forward multiple. The bearish case assumes zanidatamab delay or rejection, Zepzelca franchise damage from the LAGOON failure, or a reset in the forward multiple.
$300 to $330
More likely if zanidatamab is approved on or before the August 25, 2026 PDUFA date and the first-line gastroesophageal launch starts strong, Xywav keeps growing above guidance, Modeyso ramps, and the market assigns a 12x to 13x forward earnings multiple, in line with the higher analyst targets such as the $307 BofA target.
$255 to $285
More likely if Jazz delivers 2026 revenue of $4.25 billion to $4.50 billion, consensus non-GAAP EPS near $25.31 for 2026 is met, zanidatamab is approved and launches on plan, and the stock continues to trade near 10x forward earnings, close to the average analyst target of $266.90 and the median of $272.50.
$170 to $195
More likely if zanidatamab is delayed or rejected, the LAGOON failure accelerates Zepzelca revenue decline and draws regulatory or commercial consequences, Xywav growth stalls, generic oxybate pressure returns, or the market resets the multiple toward 7x to 8x forward earnings, near the lowest analyst targets.
JAZZ AI technical analysis
JAZZ AI technical analysis starts from the $252.86 July 31, 2026 close. The stock is above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day average near $255.91, after pulling back from the 52-week high of $261.30 reached around July 28, 2026. RSI near 58 is neutral and volume is light. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $252.86 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, down 2.14% on July 31, 2026 with an after-hours print near $250. |
| Near support | $248.50 to $249 | The 20-day moving average near $248.57 is the first support zone for the current pullback. |
| Secondary support | $239 to $241 | The 50-day moving average near $239.47 and the late June to early July congestion area. A sustained break would weaken the near-term setup. |
| Key support | $219 to $220 | The 100-day moving average near $219.72. A close below this level would shift the medium-term bias. |
| Near resistance | $259 to $261.30 | The recent swing highs and the 52-week high of $261.30. Breakout attempts need volume confirmation. |
| 5-day moving average | $255.91 | Barchart showed JAZZ trading below its 5-day average after the July 31 pullback. |
| 20-day moving average | $248.57 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both show the short-term trend line near $248.57. |
| 50-day moving average | $239.47 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both show the 50-day trend line near $239.47, roughly 5% below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $191.36 | The long-term trend line near $191.36, well below price, supports the uptrend thesis. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58, stochastic in overbought territory | 14-day RSI near 57.78 is neutral. The 14-day stochastic %K near 80 is elevated after the rally, which fits the recent pullback. |
| Volume | About 698,000 average shares | The 20-day average volume is near 698,000 shares and the July 31 session traded about 573,000, so the pullback came on light volume. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $6.99 | Barchart reports a 14-day average true range near $6.99, about 2.8% of price, so position sizing should allow normal daily movement. |
| Invalidation | Close below $248.50, then $239 | A close below the 20-day moving average would deepen the short-term pullback. A close below the 50-day area would weaken the uptrend setup. |
JAZZ AI trading strategy
The JAZZ AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with the August 25, 2026 zanidatamab PDUFA and the August 3, 2026 earnings report as the main calendar risks.
Look for JAZZ to hold above the 20-day and 50-day area and to reclaim the $259 to $261.30 zone with above-average volume before treating momentum as confirmed.
A failed breakout or a daily close below the 50-day area near $239.47 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If JAZZ pulls back toward $248.50 or $239 to $241 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the August 3, 2026 earnings report and the August 25, 2026 zanidatamab PDUFA date.
Do not average down solely because the forward valuation looks low. Define maximum loss and review the binary regulatory and earnings calendar first.
Track the zanidatamab PDUFA and first-line gastroesophageal launch execution, 2026 revenue guidance of $4.25 billion to $4.50 billion, Xywav and Epidiolex growth, Zepzelca revenue after the LAGOON failure, Modeyso ramp, and debt reduction.
Lower the rating if zanidatamab is delayed or rejected, if Zepzelca revenue drops faster than expected, or if the stock rises faster than the underlying earnings power.
Investment research summary
Jazz develops and commercializes medicines for rare and serious diseases, focused on neuroscience and oncology. Its largest products are Xywav for narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia, Epidiolex for severe epilepsies, and a growing oncology portfolio that includes Zepzelca, Modeyso, and zanidatamab. Customers are patients, physicians, and payors, and revenue comes from product sales, royalties, and milestone payments.
The moat combines orphan-drug exclusivity, patent protection, specialist commercial teams, and patient access programs. Xywav has defended its low-sodium position against generic Xyrem, and zanidatamab showed durable survival benefit in the Phase 3 HERIZON-GEA-01 trial published in NEJM. The moat is stronger when Jazz owns scarce therapies and weaker when it depends on products facing generic or trial-related competition.
The thesis can fail if zanidatamab is delayed or rejected at the August 25, 2026 PDUFA date, if the Zepzelca LAGOON failure accelerates second-line revenue decline and leads to regulatory consequences, if Xywav growth stalls, if generic oxybate erodes pricing, or if the market pays a lower multiple for mid-single digit growth after a 118% 52-week gain.
Renee Gala became CEO in August 2025 after serving as CFO, President, and COO. The leadership team has delivered 19% revenue growth in Q1 2026, reaffirmed guidance, managed a major negative trial disclosure, and kept executing capital allocation including a priority review voucher sale with gross proceeds of $200 million.
Rare-disease and specialty biopharma is a long-term trend driven by unmet medical need, orphan-drug incentives, personalized medicine, and aging populations. Jazz is positioned in neuroscience and oncology, but it faces pricing scrutiny, regulatory risk, and competition from generics and larger biopharma, with the Zepzelca LAGOON result as a reminder that pipeline risk is real.
At $252.86, JAZZ trades at roughly 10.3x forward non-GAAP earnings and 12.5x trailing free cash flow, with an 8.0% free cash flow yield. The TTM GAAP PE near 539 is distorted and not useful. The three-scenario model points to a base case near $279 if the company meets 2026 guidance and holds a 10x multiple, close to the analyst consensus target of $266.90. The margin of safety is narrower than it was a year ago because the stock has rallied and the zanidatamab decision is binary.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAZZ price | $252.86 close on July 31, 2026, down 2.14% on the day | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot and price history | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.88 billion, verified as $252.86 x 62.82M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, 0.03% deviation | August 1, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 62.82 million, down 5.13% year over year | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenues | $1,068.9 million, up 19% year over year | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Q1 2026 earnings release attached to Form 8-K and SEC 10-Q XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS | $4.43 | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Q1 2026 SEC 10-Q XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS | $6.34 | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenues | $4,267.6 million | Jazz Pharmaceuticals 2025 Form 10-K XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income and diluted EPS | Net loss of $356.1 million and diluted EPS of -$5.84 | Jazz Pharmaceuticals 2025 Form 10-K XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 revenue guidance | $4.25 billion to $4.50 billion, reaffirmed in Q1 2026 | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.44 billion | StockAnalysis.com and SEC XBRL cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.27 billion, free cash flow per share $20.21 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $2.9 billion at March 31, 2026 | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Q1 2026 earnings release and 10-Q XBRL, cross-validated with StockAnalysis at 0.00% deviation | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $5.4 billion principal at March 31, 2026 | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Q1 2026 earnings release, with $4,324.2M noncurrent and $1,030.5M current per 10-Q XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward PE | 10.28x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $266.90 across 20 analysts, range $196 to $307, median $272.50 | StockAnalysis.com stock forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Consensus FY2026 estimates | Revenue $4.51 billion, non-GAAP EPS $25.31 | StockAnalysis.com stock forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA $239.47, 200-day MA $191.36, RSI 57.78, 20-day average volume near 698,000 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull $328.0, base $279.0, bear $182.2 from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
This JAZZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool for education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, earnings releases, and third-party data as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff and can be wrong, especially around the August 25, 2026 zanidatamab PDUFA and the August 3, 2026 earnings report.
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