Samsara Inc. research snapshot
IOT AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Samsara as a high-quality connected-operations platform that just crossed into GAAP profitability for the third consecutive quarter, with the stock at $37.27 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $21.72 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $37.27 times 582.71 million shares with 0.01% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q1 FY2027 report, released June 4, 2026, delivered revenue of $478.8 million, up 31% year over year, net new ARR of $100.7 million, up 30%, ending ARR of $1.991 billion, up 30%, GAAP EPS of $0.08, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.17. Management guided Q2 FY2027 revenue to $482 million to $484 million, and full-year FY2027 revenue to $2.005 billion to $2.013 billion, up about 24%, with non-GAAP operating margin of 20%, non-GAAP EPS of $0.70 to $0.72, and expected GAAP profitability. The June 24 Investor Day introduced new products including the 360 Camera, AI Multicam, Tracking Label, and agentic shipment center. Offsetting this is a valuation near 373x trailing GAAP EPS, about 49x forward non-GAAP EPS, 12.6x trailing revenue, and 93x trailing free cash flow, plus hardware and connectivity costs, competition, stock-based compensation, and dual-class voting control. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$37.27
Market cap
$21.72 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
GAAP profitability inflection at a premium growth multiple
Trend status
Bullish above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Samsara sells subscriptions that combine IoT devices, connectivity, cloud applications, APIs, support, and warranties for fleets, equipment, sites, and field operations, with subscription revenue of $1.700 billion in the trailing twelve months. | High |
| Moat | Device deployment, workflow integration, accumulated operational data, safety and compliance use cases, and cross-sell across applications create switching costs. The moat is real but faces telematics, fleet-software, camera, and platform competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founders Sanjit Biswas and John Bicket retain substantial Class B voting power, aligning long-term control with product leadership while increasing key-person and minority-holder governance risk. | High |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 revenue rose 31% to $478.8 million, ending ARR reached $1.991 billion up 30%, and GAAP EPS of $0.08 marked the third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. FY2027 revenue guidance of $2.005 billion to $2.013 billion implies about 24% growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $37.27, verified math gives about 372.7x TTM GAAP EPS, 52.5x the FY2027 consensus non-GAAP EPS of $0.71, 12.6x TTM revenue, and 93.2x TTM free cash flow. The price leaves limited room for a growth or margin reset. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $37.27 sits above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 55 and a Barchart technical opinion of about 80% Buy with a strengthening short-term outlook. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because a premium software multiple, customer budgets, hardware and cellular costs, data security, competition, dual-class control, and stock-based compensation can all affect shareholder returns. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-company data is well documented and cross-validated, but AI cannot know whether physical-operations demand, enterprise sales efficiency, or valuation multiples will persist. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Samsara has an attractive operating model that is now GAAP profitable, but the stock is not a high-certainty bargain at a valuation that still assumes continuing premium growth. | Medium-low |
IOT AI stock forecast
The IOT AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario range built from the July 31, 2026 close of $37.27 and the FY2027 consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate of $0.71. Using the financial_rigor.py model with 30% annual EPS growth and a 60x exit multiple, 20% growth and a 40x exit multiple, and 8% growth and a 25x exit multiple, the framework produced a bearish area near $22, a base area near $49, and a bullish area near $94 before dilution, buybacks, dividends, or changes to the stated growth and terminal-multiple assumptions. The scenario ranges are not a precise prediction, because growth, operating leverage, share dilution, and the valuation multiple can change quickly.
$88 to $98
More likely if revenue sustains growth near the high-20% to low-30% range, ARR continues to compound toward and past $2 billion with durable net retention, agentic and AI products drive adoption, GAAP profitability and operating leverage persist, and investors continue to accept a premium multiple.
$44 to $54
More likely if revenue growth moderates toward the mid-20% range, FY2027 guidance of about $2.01 billion is met, non-GAAP EPS compounds from a consensus near $0.71, free cash flow remains positive, and the valuation multiple compresses toward a still-growth-oriented level.
$20 to $25
More likely if fleet and industrial customers slow spending, competition pressures pricing or sales efficiency, hardware and connectivity costs rise, stock-based compensation remains heavy, margins stall, or the market sharply re-rates premium software valuations.
IOT AI technical analysis
IOT AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $37.27 and market statistics available around the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and Barchart cited a strengthening short-term outlook with a technical opinion near 80% Buy. This static page does not fetch request-time market prices, so confirm support, resistance, moving averages, volume, and momentum on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $37.27 | July 31, 2026 market close used for market-cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $35.99 to $36.36 | Barchart listed a first support level near $35.99, with the 20-day moving average near $36.36. Confirm the zone on a live chart before acting. |
| Deeper support | $33.86 to $34.70 | Barchart cited second and third support levels near $34.70 and $33.86, close to the 50-day moving average near $34.25 and the 200-day moving average near $33.54. |
| Near resistance | $38.11 to $38.95 | Barchart cited first and second resistance levels near $38.11 and $38.95, with a Fibonacci retracement area near $38.27. A breakout needs volume confirmation. |
| Major resistance | $47.47 | Public quote data listed this as the 52-week high. It is a longer-term reference, not a forecast. |
| 50-day moving average | $34.25 | Cited by both StockAnalysis and Barchart near the cutoff. A sustained break would weaken the medium-term setup. |
| 200-day moving average | $33.54 | Cited near the cutoff as the longer-term trend reference. Price is above it, but earnings and software-sector moves can change this quickly. |
| Momentum | RSI about 55, stochastic about 68 | Barchart cited a 14-day RSI near 55 and a stochastic reading near 68, positive but not extreme, with a strengthening short-term outlook. |
| Volume and volatility | Beta 1.35, 14-day ATR about $2.38 | Barchart cited a 14-day average true range near $2.38, about 6.4% of price, so earnings and software-sector moves can create sharp swings. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $33.86 | A sustained loss of the Barchart third support zone, below the 200-day moving average area, would invalidate a bullish continuation setup and trigger a review of business news and risk sizing. |
IOT AI trading strategy
The IOT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It connects chart levels with ARR, revenue growth, customer adoption, gross margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, stock-based compensation, and valuation discipline.
Watch for IOT to hold the $33.86 to $36.36 support zone, continue above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and confirm the move with the next earnings release showing durable ARR and revenue growth, GAAP profitability, and operating leverage.
A failed breakout, a sustained close below $33.86, or a revenue or ARR growth slowdown invalidates this short-term framework. Avoid treating a single earnings gap as a stable trend.
If IOT pulls back toward the $33.86 to $34.70 area without a deterioration in ARR, revenue growth, GAAP profitability, cash flow, or customer demand, compare the new valuation with free cash flow per share and a refreshed earnings scenario.
Do not average down only because the price fell. The setup fails if growth, gross margin, cash conversion, or enterprise demand weakens while valuation remains elevated.
Track ARR, net new ARR, revenue growth, large-customer expansion, gross margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, GAAP versus non-GAAP profitability, sales efficiency, hardware and connectivity costs, stock-based compensation, diluted share count, and competitive positioning.
Refresh assumptions after each quarterly report and at the Investor Day roadmap updates. Position size should reflect that IOT remains sensitive to both execution and premium-software multiple compression.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Samsara for a subscription that turns data from vehicles, cameras, equipment, sites, and field work into safety, compliance, maintenance, efficiency, and workflow decisions.
Samsara benefits from installed devices, connected workflows, operational data, integrations, product breadth, and customer switching costs. The moat can narrow if incumbents bundle comparable tools or customers resist adding more vendors and devices.
The thesis fails if physical-operations budgets slow, a competitor wins through price or bundling, data-security incidents damage trust, device and connectivity economics worsen, dilution persists, or a premium revenue multiple contracts faster than earnings grow.
Co-founders Sanjit Biswas and John Bicket provide product continuity and long-term control. The governance tradeoff is concentrated Class B voting power, which reduces the ability of public Class A holders to change direction if execution falters.
Samsara sits at the intersection of fleet safety, industrial IoT, video, compliance, and operational AI. Digitization of physical operations is a long-term tailwind, although customers have alternatives and adoption can slow with capital and labor cycles.
At about $21.72 billion in verified equity value, the market already expects durable growth, GAAP profitability, and improved margins. Margin of safety improves only if cash flow and earnings grow faster than expected, or if the price resets without damage to the operating thesis.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOT price and 52-week range | $37.27 close on July 31, 2026; $23.38 to $47.47 range | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $21.72 billion from $37.27 x 582.71 million shares; 0.01% variance to reported market cap | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 revenue and ARR | $478.8 million revenue, up 31%; ending ARR of $1.991 billion, up 30%; net new ARR of $100.7 million, up 30% | Samsara Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 GAAP and non-GAAP EPS | GAAP EPS of $0.08 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.17 | Samsara Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | Revenue of $2.005 billion to $2.013 billion, up about 24%; non-GAAP operating margin of 20%; non-GAAP EPS of $0.70 to $0.72 | Samsara Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and GAAP net loss | $1.619 billion revenue and $9.12 million GAAP net loss | StockAnalysis.com financials and Samsara FY2026 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $57.51 million TTM net income and $0.10 TTM GAAP EPS | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $804.32 million cash and short-term investments; $69.02 million total debt | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $234.93 million, or $0.40 per share | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus across 23 analysts, average price target of $44.31, range of $30 to $57.60 | StockAnalysis.com forecast, S&P Global and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels and momentum | Support near $35.99 and $33.86 to $34.70; resistance near $38.11 to $38.95; 50-day MA near $34.25; 200-day MA near $33.54; RSI near 55 | Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 372.7x TTM GAAP EPS, 52.5x FY2027 consensus non-GAAP EPS, 14.4x book value, 93.2x free cash flow per share, and 1.07% free-cash-flow yield | financial_rigor.py valuation check and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 39.92 million shares, 6.85% of shares outstanding and 11.15% of float | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
This IOT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available by August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if revenue growth, ARR, margins, share count, customer demand, competition, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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