Ingram Micro Holding Corporation research snapshot
INGM AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Ingram Micro Holding Corporation as a large global IT distributor whose operating momentum improved sharply in the first half of 2026 even as the market sold the stock after the Q2 report. The stock closed at $28.21 on July 31, 2026, down 7.20% on the day, with a pre-market print of $29.60 on August 3, 2026, and a market capitalization near $6.51 billion, computed as $28.21 times 230.66 million shares outstanding and matching the StockAnalysis.com quote page. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, delivered record results that exceeded the high end of guidance on every metric: net revenue of $14.53 billion up 13.6% in U.S. dollars and 12.6% on an FX neutral basis, gross profit of $959 million, adjusted income from operations of $280 million up 40% year over year, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.82 up 34% against a $0.73 consensus. Growth was broad across all three lines of business and all four regions, with cloud up 44% FX neutral, Advanced Solutions up 13%, Client and Endpoint Solutions up 12%, Asia-Pacific up 28%, and Latin America up 19%, while consolidated GPU and AI infrastructure sales more than doubled. Management guided Q3 2026 net sales of $13.55 billion to $13.95 billion, gross profit of $910 million to $955 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.72 to $0.82, a midpoint below the $0.82 just delivered, and the quarter carried an adjusted free cash flow outflow of $527 million tied to inventory build ahead of expected ASP increases and memory supply constraints. The stock fell about 7% on July 31 despite the beat, which market participants read as guidance caution and cash flow timing, while analysts held or raised targets near $33. The stock now trades below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages but above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 45.61. The INGM AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because distributor margins, working capital, IT spending, and vendor terms can shift quickly. This page is an informational research tool and not investment advice.
Current price
$28.21 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 7.20%, with $29.60 pre-market on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$6.51 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Improving operating leverage at a low forward multiple, with working capital and cash conversion as the swing factors
Trend status
Short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, still above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | INGM distributes IT products, cloud services, and enterprise solutions to about 165,000 reseller and end-customer accounts across 57 countries, with TTM revenue near $55.98 billion, a record Q2 2026 with net revenue up 13.6% and adjusted operating income up 40%, but a net margin near 0.8% that reflects the low value add of traditional distribution. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat combines global scale, decades of vendor relationships including the HPE Global Distributor designation, a broad product catalog, reseller credit services, and the Xvantage digital platform, which create switching costs for resellers but do not translate into strong pricing power, as the 6.65% TTM gross margin shows. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Paul Bay and CFO Mike Zilis delivered a record Q2 with adjusted income from operations up 40%, non-GAAP EPS up 34% to $0.82, a 2.4% sequential dividend increase, and a net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 2.0x, while executing the Xvantage rollout into 22 countries and the Enable AI program. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net revenue rose 13.6% to $14.53 billion, gross profit was $959 million, adjusted income from operations was $280 million up 40%, non-GAAP EPS was $0.82 up 34%, and Q3 guidance points to more than 9% year-over-year revenue growth at the midpoint, but the quarter carried a $527 million adjusted free cash flow outflow and TTM free cash flow is negative $231.59 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $28.21, INGM trades at about 15.42x trailing GAAP EPS, 8.04x forward earnings, 0.87x PEG, 0.12x sales, 1.52x book value, and an EV to EBITDA of 8.35x, with a 1.22% dividend yield and an earnings yield near 6.62%. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | INGM closed at $28.21 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day average near $29.59, 20-day near $28.93, and 50-day near $28.55, but above its 100-day near $27.29 and 200-day near $24.46, with 14-day RSI near 45.61 and a 20-day ADX near 13.59 signaling a weak, non-trending market after the post-earnings drop. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are negative TTM free cash flow, thin margins, working capital intensity, IT spending cyclicality, GPU and AI infrastructure mix pressure on gross margin, net debt near 2.0x net debt to EBITDA, and the overhang of Platinum Equity reducing its ownership by 13% since March 2026. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call. Lower for forward return estimates because free cash flow swings and multiple assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
INGM AI stock forecast
The INGM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $28.21 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $3.32. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $24, a base area near $37, and a bullish area near $60, using adjusted EPS growth of 4%, 12%, and 20% and exit multiples of 6.5x, 8x, and 10.5x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$52 to $70
More likely if cloud and AI infrastructure demand keeps cloud growth near 40% FX neutral, margins expand as Xvantage scales, free cash flow turns positive and debt falls, IT spending stays healthy, and the market re-rates the stock toward a 10x forward multiple.
$31 to $44
More likely if Ingram compounds adjusted EPS at a low double-digit rate near the consensus 12.96% three-year growth forecast, working capital normalizes after the inventory build, and the stock holds near an 8x forward multiple.
$18 to $28
More likely if IT spending fades, GPU and AI infrastructure mix keeps gross margins thin, free cash flow stays negative, working capital demands more debt, Platinum Equity keeps selling, or the multiple compresses toward 6x.
INGM AI technical analysis
INGM AI technical analysis turned cautious as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $28.21 on July 31, 2026, down 7.20%, below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages but above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 14-day RSI near 45.61 is neutral, the 20-day ADX near 13.59 shows a weak non-trending market, and elevated July 31 volume near 1.61 million shares confirms real selling interest, while the $29.60 pre-market print on August 3 suggests buyers stepped back in at the open.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $28.21 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 230.66 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $27.25 to $27.50 | The July 31 intraday low was $27.25 and the 100-day moving average was near $27.29, forming a first support zone. |
| Next support | $24.00 to $24.50 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $24.46, the last major support above the 2026 lows. |
| Near resistance | $28.90 to $29.60 | The 20-day moving average was near $28.93 and the 5-day near $29.59, with the $29.60 pre-market print on August 3 sitting at the upper edge of this zone. |
| Upper resistance | $30.40 to $31.69 | The July 30 close was $30.40 and the 52-week high is $31.69, so a full recovery needs a breakout through $30 to $31. |
| 50-day moving average | $28.55 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $28.55 on July 31, 2026, now just above the close. |
| 100-day moving average | $27.29 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $27.29, which lines up with the July 31 intraday low as support. |
| 200-day moving average | $24.46 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $24.46, well below price and consistent with a longer-term uptrend that has not been violated. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.6, ADX near 13.6 to 17.6 | 14-day RSI was near 45.61, neutral, and ADX was near 17.64 on 14 days and 13.59 on 20 days on Barchart, indicating weak trend intensity after the drop. |
| Volume | About 986,000 to 997,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 996,775 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 986,557 on July 31, 2026, while the July 31 session traded about 1.61 million shares, roughly 60% above average. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 44.48% and 20-day near 43.79%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27.25 | A decisive close below the $27.25 to $27.50 support zone would weaken the medium-term uptrend; a close below the 200-day near $24.46 would turn the longer-term picture bearish. |
INGM AI trading strategy
The INGM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the distributor. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for INGM to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $28.93 and then its 5-day near $29.59, followed by a volume-confirmed move toward the $30.40 to $31.69 zone, with the 200-day trend line near $24.46 still rising.
A daily close back below the $27.25 to $27.50 support zone or a failed attempt near $30 should trigger a stop and review.
If INGM holds the $27.25 to $27.50 zone and then the 200-day near $24.46 without new fundamental damage, compare the price reaction with Q3 results, free cash flow, inventory sell-through, and vendor news before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a negative free cash flow and inventory build can turn a support zone into a value trap if IT spending fades.
Track net revenue growth by line of business, gross margin excluding GPU and AI infrastructure deals, adjusted income from operations, non-GAAP EPS, adjusted free cash flow, net working capital days, inventory, net debt to EBITDA, Xvantage and IDA adoption, and Platinum Equity ownership changes.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow stays negative, working capital keeps consuming cash, or growth depends on supply-constraint price effects that fade.
Investment research summary
Ingram Micro earns fees and margin spreads by sourcing, warehousing, configuring, financing, and delivering IT hardware, software, cloud, and services from hundreds of vendors to roughly 165,000 reseller and enterprise customers across 57 countries. Customers pay for reach, logistics, credit terms, and vendor relationship management rather than a proprietary product.
The moat comes from global scale, long-standing vendor relationships including the HPE Global Distributor designation, a broad catalog, reseller credit services, and the Xvantage digital platform with its IDA assistant and MCP connections. These create switching costs but the near 0.8% net margin shows limited pricing power.
The thesis fails if IT spending contracts, GPU and AI infrastructure mix keeps gross margins thin, working capital demands absorb cash so free cash flow stays negative, Platinum Equity keeps reducing ownership, vendors sell direct or consolidate distribution, or the low forward multiple proves to be a value trap rather than a bargain.
CEO Paul Bay and CFO Mike Zilis are running an operating leverage and platform agenda. Q2 2026 delivered adjusted income from operations up 40%, non-GAAP EPS up 34% to $0.82, a 2.4% sequential dividend increase, net debt to EBITDA of 2.0x, and Xvantage now live in 22 countries, with Q3 guidance pointing to continued year-over-year growth.
IT distribution is mature and cyclical, but AI infrastructure, cloud adoption, and the PC refresh cycle are reshaping demand. Cloud grew 44% FX neutral in Q2, consolidated GPU and AI infrastructure sales more than doubled, AI PCs accounted for more than 30% of revenue, and vendors like HPE are consolidating distribution toward fewer global partners.
At about 8x forward earnings, 0.87x PEG, and 0.12x sales, the market prices in continued execution but not a major margin expansion. Margin of safety depends on free cash flow conversion and multiple re-rating, not on the low earnings multiple alone, because the working capital cycle is large.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| INGM price | $28.21 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 7.20%, with $29.60 pre-market on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.51 billion, computed as $28.21 x 230.66 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $14.53 billion, up 13.6% in U.S. dollars and 12.6% on an FX neutral basis, matching StockAnalysis.com quarterly data, the earnings release, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profitability | Gross profit of $959 million with a 6.60% gross margin up 4 basis points, adjusted income from operations of $280 million up 40% year over year, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.82 up 34% against a $0.73 consensus | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net income of $110.9 million and operating income of $235.97 million for the quarter ended June 27, 2026, with first-half net income of $209.7 million and operating income of $458.9 million | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Net sales of $13.55 billion to $13.95 billion, gross profit of $910 million to $955 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.72 to $0.82, assuming about 231.9 million weighted average shares, a 27% non-GAAP tax rate, and a 2% to 3% net revenue benefit from supply constraints | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Segment growth in Q2 2026 | Cloud up 44% FX neutral, Advanced Solutions up 13%, and Client and Endpoint Solutions up 12%, with consolidated GPU and AI infrastructure sales more than doubled and AI PCs above 30% of revenue | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Regional growth in Q2 2026 | Asia-Pacific up 28% FX neutral, Latin America up 19%, North America up 6% to $5.28 billion, and EMEA up 5% to $3.75 billion, with North America 36%, Asia-Pacific 30%, EMEA 26%, and Latin America 8% of net revenue | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Xvantage and IDA metrics | Xvantage live in 22 of 57 countries with about 75% of revenue in those countries through the platform, time spent up 40% year over year, average order value up 12%, IDA generated about $1 billion of net revenue in Q2 or about 7% of revenue, Email-to-Order up 43% with about $1.4 billion processed, and MCP adoption up 50% in June | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and working capital | Adjusted free cash flow outflow of $527 million in Q2, net working capital of $4.9 billion at 26 days or 3 days better year over year, inventory up about 16% sequentially on ASP inflation and strategic procurement, and management guidance that the inventory build sells through as the year progresses | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash of $808.97 million and long-term debt of $2.559 billion as of June 27, 2026, with total debt of $4.24 billion and net cash of negative $3.43 billion per StockAnalysis.com, while the earnings call cites debt of $3.8 billion and net debt to EBITDA of 2.0x | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Total assets and total equity | Total assets of $21.526 billion and total stockholders equity of $4.280 billion as of June 27, 2026, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $55.98 billion up 11.5%, gross profit of $3.72 billion, operating income of about $1.07 billion, EBITDA of $1.19 billion, net income of $430.60 million, EPS of $1.83, and a 0.77% net margin | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of negative $96.58 million, capital expenditures of negative $135.02 million, and free cash flow of negative $231.59 million over the trailing twelve months, reflecting the first-half 2026 working capital build | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $52.56 billion up 9.53%, net income of $327.88 million, operating cash flow of $916.13 million, and free cash flow of $785.37 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 15.42x trailing PE, 8.04x forward PE, 0.87x PEG, 0.12x sales, 1.52x book value, 2.35x tangible book, EV to EBITDA of 8.35x, 6.62% earnings yield, and negative 3.56% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial position | Current ratio of 1.31, quick ratio of 0.81, debt to equity of 0.99, debt to EBITDA of 3.56, interest coverage of 3.29, ROE of 10.34%, ROIC of 9.33%, and ROCE of 13.47% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $32.92 across 14 analysts, low $29, high $37, median $33 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 14 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC Capital Buy at $33 maintained July 31, J.P. Morgan Hold at $33 maintained July 31, Morgan Stanley Hold at $33 maintained July 31, William Blair Buy maintained July 31, and Goldman Sachs raised to $33 from $30 with a Hold on July 31 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TheFly news feed | July 31, 2026 |
| Consensus financial estimates | FY2026 revenue of $57.53 billion up 9.47% with adjusted EPS of $3.32, FY2027 revenue of $59.55 billion with adjusted EPS of $3.74, and a three-year EPS growth forecast of 12.96% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.96 million shares short, 2.15% of shares outstanding, 9.73% of float, 3.16 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder structure | 230.66 million shares outstanding up 1.59% year over year and down 1.13% sequentially, float of 50.98 million shares, insider ownership of 0.95%, and institutional ownership of 16.91% | StockAnalysis.com statistics share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.34 per share with a 1.22% yield and an 18.15% payout ratio, paid quarterly with an ex-dividend date of August 11, 2026, after a 2.4% sequential increase announced with Q2 results | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $18.09 to $31.69, up 38.08% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta not meaningful given the October 2024 re-IPO | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $29.59, 20-day SMA near $28.93, 50-day SMA near $28.55, 100-day SMA near $27.29, 200-day SMA near $24.46, 14-day RSI near 45.61, 20-day ADX near 13.59, 14-day historic volatility near 44.48%, and average volume near 986,000 to 997,000 shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Platinum Equity ownership reduction | Platinum Equity ownership reduced by 13% since the beginning of March 2026 through two secondary offerings including a May 2026 offering of 14.5 million shares with a concurrent 1.2 million share repurchase, plus a June 2026 Rule 144 sale | Ingram Micro Q2 2026 earnings call and Business Wire press releases | July 30, 2026 |
| HPE global distribution | In May 2026, HPE named Ingram Micro one of two global distribution partners, giving it full portfolio access and a strategic territory expansion, alongside TD SYNNEX | Ingram Micro press release and Q2 2026 earnings call | May 14, 2026 |
| Company profile | 22,200 employees, NYSE listing, October 24, 2024 re-IPO, industry of information technology services, and about 165,000 customer accounts served in 57 countries | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This INGM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, guidance, cash flow, market moves, or macro conditions.
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