Independent Bank Corp (Massachusetts) research snapshot
INDB AI stock analysis currently reads Independent Bank Corp as an improving Massachusetts-based community bank operating through its Rockland Trust subsidiary across Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and, since the July 1, 2025 Enterprise Bancorp acquisition, parts of northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, INDB traded at $84.73 with a market capitalization near $4.03 billion. The INDB AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit quality, deposit competition, and New England economic conditions. Second quarter 2026 results showed net income of $81.8 million, a 1.34% return on assets, a 3.76% core net interest margin that improved four basis points, and over $300 million of non-time deposit growth. The stock trades at about 15.4x trailing earnings, a 3.02% dividend yield, and a 0.77 to 0.79 beta, with seven sell-side analysts holding a Buy consensus and a $92.71 average price target. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$84.73
Market cap
$4.03 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Improving Massachusetts community bank with expanding margins, growing core deposits and a consensus Buy rating
Trend status
Above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, trading just below the 52-week high of $87.50, with RSI near 53.6 (neutral), a weak ADX near 12.4, and a beta of 0.77 to 0.79
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | INDB operates through Rockland Trust, a Massachusetts-based community bank with commercial lending, retail banking, wealth management, and insurance services. The bank has a long operating history since 1907 and completed the Enterprise Bancorp acquisition on July 1, 2025, which expanded its footprint into northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire and raised total assets to roughly $25.0 billion as of June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship deposits, local lending relationships, branch coverage across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, long-standing community presence, a trusted brand, and regulated banking licenses. It is a useful deposit moat, but weaker than a large national bank or a software-based network. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeffrey Tengel leads Rockland Trust and is in remission after completing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma disclosed in a February 2026 8-K. CFO Mark Ruggiero has overseen disciplined capital return including a new $200 million buyback program announced in May 2026. The key questions are whether the October 2026 FIS core conversion goes smoothly and whether organic growth and credit discipline sustain returns after the Enterprise integration. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue through June 2026 is approximately $948.7 million and TTM net income is about $271.4 million, supporting about a $5.52 TTM EPS. Q2 2026 delivered a 1.34% return on assets, a 9.24% return on equity, a 14.05% return on tangible common equity, and a 28.6% net margin, with profitability and the core margin improving. | High |
| Valuation | At $84.73, financial_rigor.py calculates about 15.35x TTM EPS, 1.15x book value, 11.88x free cash flow, a 6.51% earnings yield, and a 3.02% dividend yield. That is a reasonable valuation for a Massachusetts community bank with a sub-1.0 beta, a 15-year dividend growth record, and improving profitability. | High |
| Technical trend | INDB was above its 50-day moving average near $82.62, its 100-day moving average near $79.84, and its 200-day moving average near $77.51 based on the $84.73 quote. RSI was near 53.6, neutral and not overbought, while the ADX near 12.4 indicated a weak trend rather than a strong directional move, and the stock sits just below the $87.50 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are commercial real estate and office credit losses, New England economic sensitivity, deposit repricing pressure, a net interest margin that could slip if the Fed cuts, core systems conversion disruption in October 2026, integration of the Enterprise acquisition, and competition from larger national and regional banks in the Massachusetts market. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit quality, deposit competition, and Massachusetts economic conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise and deposits are solid and profitability is improving, but CRE and office concentration, margin risk, a one-time systems conversion, and the possibility of slower loan growth mean ordinary-looking credit data can deteriorate in a downturn. | Medium |
INDB AI stock forecast
The INDB AI stock forecast uses the $84.73 reference price and $5.52 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 12%, 7%, and 2% annual EPS growth with 18x, 15x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $140, $101, and $59. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events. Seven sell-side analysts carry a Buy consensus with an average price target of $92.71.
$130 to $145
More likely if the core net interest margin keeps expanding, C&I loan growth stays in the double digits, deposits grow without a large rise in funding cost, Massachusetts and Rhode Island economic activity supports credit quality, office and CRE losses stay contained, the October core conversion goes smoothly, and the market values INDB near 18x forward earnings.
$95 to $110
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, the margin holds near the 3.90% to 3.95% fourth quarter guidance range, deposits remain sticky, CRE and office losses stay manageable, the Massachusetts economy holds steady, the buyback continues, and the stock holds a 15x earnings multiple.
$50 to $62
More likely if CRE or office losses rise meaningfully in New England, deposit costs reprice sharply higher, the Fed cuts and compresses NIM, the core conversion causes operational disruption, integration costs exceed estimates, or the market reprices INDB near 10x reduced earnings.
INDB AI technical analysis
INDB AI technical analysis was mildly constructive at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis and Google Finance reported a 52-week high of $87.50 and a 52-week low near $61.55 to $62.07, with beta near 0.77 to 0.79 and 20-day average volume near 409,000 to 411,000 shares. Price held above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 53.6, while the ADX near 12.4 pointed to a weak, choppy trend rather than a strong breakout, keeping the stock just below the prior high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.73 | StockAnalysis quote for August 3, 2026, the latest available trading session before the August 4 research date. |
| Near support | $82.00 to $83.00 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $82.62 and is the first short-term support level to watch. |
| Secondary support | $79.50 to $80.50 | This zone surrounds the 100-day moving average near $79.84 and would be the primary trend test for a moderate pullback. |
| Deep trend support | $77.00 to $78.00 | The 200-day moving average near $77.51 defines the deeper trend support area after the 2026 rally. |
| Near resistance | $85.00 to $87.50 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance listed a 52-week high near $87.50. A breakout needs price acceptance above $85.00 and a push through the prior high on above-average volume. |
| 50-day moving average | $82.62 | Barchart and StockAnalysis showed the 50-day moving average near $82.62. Price was above this level at the data cutoff, supporting a positive near-term bias. |
| 200-day moving average | $77.51 | Barchart and StockAnalysis showed the 200-day moving average near $77.51. Price was above this long-term trend measure, supporting a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.56 (14-day) | Barchart reported RSI near 53.6, which is neutral and not overbought. The stock is below the 52-week high, so momentum could accelerate on a breakout above resistance. |
| Volume | About 409,000 to 411,000 shares average (20-day) | StockAnalysis listed 20-day average volume near 409,392 and Barchart near 411,103. A breakout above $87.50 is more convincing when weekly volume expands above this average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.77 to 0.79, low bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes INDB a lower-volatility holding, though earnings, rates, Massachusetts CRE and office loans, and the core conversion can still produce sharp moves on a percentage basis. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82.00, then below $77.50 | A sustained break below the 50-day zone weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage for this community bank stock. |
INDB AI trading strategy
The INDB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a Massachusetts community bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit trends, net interest margin, New England economic data, CRE and office disclosures, credit metrics, capital ratios, the core conversion schedule, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for INDB to hold the $82.00 to $83.00 support zone and then close above $87.50 on stronger volume, with confirmation from a continued NIM expansion, stable-to-lower deposit costs, steady C&I growth, contained CRE and office losses, and a clean October core conversion.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone or a sharp rise in Massachusetts CRE or office problem loans should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If INDB pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving average zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, Massachusetts credit data, CRE and office non-accruals, or capital ratios, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and dividend case.
Do not assume one quarter of low charge-offs is permanent. Bank CRE and office losses can surface with a lag, especially in a Massachusetts-focused portfolio.
Track the $0.64 quarterly dividend ($2.56 annual), payout ratio near 46%, dividend history, CET1 ratio, deposit growth and mix, loan portfolio mix by CRE and commercial, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, the efficiency ratio, and the $200 million buyback execution.
Lower confidence if the payout ratio exceeds 50% of EPS on a sustained basis, CRE or office non-accruals rise quickly, deposits leave or reprice faster, capital ratios decline, or the core conversion disrupts customer-facing operations.
Investment research summary
INDB earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits from Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and now parts of New Hampshire customers through Rockland Trust and making commercial, CRE, C&I, consumer, and small business loans, alongside wealth management with about $9.5 billion in assets under administration. The customer pays for access to local credit, a regional branch network, relationship banking, and long-standing community presence.
The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits, a branch footprint across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island expanded by the Enterprise Bank deal, underwriting discipline, a trusted brand, and regulated banking licenses. INDB has no obvious technology or network-effect advantage, so the franchise depends on service quality, funding stability, credit discipline, and regional economic growth.
The thesis fails if Massachusetts CRE or office losses rise materially, deposit competition forces funding costs sharply higher, the net interest margin compresses faster than expected, the October 2026 core conversion disrupts operations, Enterprise integration costs exceed projections, or organic loan growth slows below expense growth. The roughly 1.15x price-to-book ratio provides some asset coverage but limited protection if credit losses spike.
CEO Jeffrey Tengel leads Rockland Trust with a strategic focus on organic growth supplemented by acquisitions such as the Enterprise Bank deal that closed on July 1, 2025. CFO Mark Ruggiero has prioritized capital return with a new $200 million buyback. The key governance question is whether organic profitability, credit discipline, and a smooth core conversion keep pace with the larger balance sheet.
Banking is not a high-growth industry, but demand for deposits, commercial credit, and local banking services is persistent. INDB benefits from the Massachusetts and Rhode Island economies, which include healthcare, education, technology, and financial services sectors. The long-term ceiling is set by funding, credit quality, regional economic conditions, and competition from larger national and regional banks.
At about 15.35x TTM EPS and 1.15x book value, INDB is priced as a stable Massachusetts community bank with a sub-1.0 beta, a 3% dividend yield, a 15-year dividend growth record, and an improving margin. The margin of safety improves if the stock returns toward the moving average zones while deposits, CRE and office credit, and capital remain healthy. At the August 3 price, the market is pricing a continuation of steady performance plus the recent momentum without a credit event.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.73 | StockAnalysis INDB quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.03 billion, verified as $84.73 x 47.62M shares (0.12% deviation) | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 47.62 million (StockAnalysis); roughly 15% higher year over year from the Enterprise Bancorp acquisition stock issuance and buybacks | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $5.52 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 15.35x trailing, 10.96x forward (calculated by financial_rigor.py) | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (four quarters) | Approximately $948.7 million (Sep 2025 $205.2M, Dec 2025 $249.2M, Mar 2026 $247.2M, Jun 2026 $247.1M) | Google Finance quarterly income statement and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $271.4 million (four quarters) | Google Finance quarterly income statement and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $73.76 (reported), about 1.15x price-to-book and 1.73x price-to-tangible-book | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.56 annual, 3.02% yield, quarterly $0.64, about 46% payout, 15 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.77 (Google Finance) to 0.79 (StockAnalysis 5-year) | Google Finance and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $61.55 to $87.50 (StockAnalysis); $62.07 to $87.50 (Google Finance) | StockAnalysis and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | Net income $81.8M, diluted EPS $1.70, ROA 1.34%, ROE 9.24%, ROTCE 14.05%, core NIM 3.76% up 4 bps, reported July 17, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital and credit | CET1 12.8%, tangible capital ratio 9.7%, non-performing assets $103.8M (56 bps of assets), net charge-offs $0.9M or 2 bps in Q2, ALLL 1.06% of loans, CRE concentration 278% | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy (7 analysts), average price target $92.71, range $82 to $100; KBW $96, Raymond James $97, Hovde $95, Piper Sandler $90, Barclays $82 | StockAnalysis forecast and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day MA $82.62, 100-day MA $79.84, 200-day MA $77.51, RSI 53.56, ADX 12.38, beta 0.77 to 0.79, 20-day average volume near 409,000 to 411,000 shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Branches and footprint | Branch network across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, expanded by the Enterprise Bank acquisition into northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire | Wikipedia, Rockland Trust, and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Company history | Rockland Trust founded 1907 in Rockland, Massachusetts. Holding company Independent Bank Corp (INDB) publicly traded on Nasdaq. Enterprise Bancorp acquisition closed July 1, 2025. | Wikipedia and SEC filing | August 3, 2026 |
| Employees | Approximately 2,294 | StockAnalysis company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This INDB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Independent Bank Corp. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, deposit costs, CRE or office credit losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, the core conversion, Massachusetts and Rhode Island economic conditions, or market sentiment change.
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