Independent Bank Corp (Massachusetts) research snapshot
INDB AI stock analysis currently reads Independent Bank Corp as a well-capitalized Massachusetts-based community bank operating through its Rockland Trust subsidiary across roughly 85 branches in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, INDB closed at $83.71 with a market capitalization near $4.05 billion. The INDB AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit quality, deposit competition, and New England economic conditions. The stock is above all its key moving averages but trades below its 52-week high, offering a 3.06% dividend yield with a 0.77 beta and a 16.6x P/E ratio. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$83.71
Market cap
$4.05 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Well-capitalized Massachusetts community bank, dividend income and value holding
Trend status
Above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, trading below the 52-week high of $87.00, with RSI near 55.6 (neutral) and a beta of 0.77
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | INDB operates through Rockland Trust, a Massachusetts-based community bank with roughly 85 branches, commercial lending, retail banking, wealth management, and insurance services. The bank has a long operating history since 1907 and has grown through consistent acquisitions including East Boston Savings Bank in 2021. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship deposits, local lending relationships, branch coverage across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, long-standing community presence, a trusted brand, and regulated banking licenses. It is a useful deposit moat, but weaker than a large national bank or a software-based network. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeffrey Tengel leads Rockland Trust. The management team has overseen a series of acquisitions that expanded the branch network into Boston, Cape Cod, and Rhode Island. The key question is whether organic growth and credit discipline can sustain returns as the bank integrates past acquisitions. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue through March 2026 is approximately $876.2 million and TTM net income is about $240.6 million, supporting a $5.04 EPS. The bank has maintained profitability with net profit margins near 27 to 30%. | High |
| Valuation | At $83.71, financial_rigor.py calculates about 16.61x TTM EPS, 1.69x book value, 18.60x free cash flow, a 6.02% earnings yield, and a 3.06% dividend yield. That is a reasonable valuation for a Massachusetts community bank with a 0.77 beta and consistent dividend history. | High |
| Technical trend | INDB was above its 50-day moving average near $80.23, its 100-day moving average near $79.06, and its 200-day moving average near $76.27 based on the $83.71 close. The beta of 0.77 is below market, and RSI was near 55.6, neutral and not overbought, while the stock remains below the $87.00 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are commercial real estate losses, New England economic sensitivity, deposit repricing pressure, net interest margin compression, acquisition integration risk, regulatory changes, rate sensitivity, and competition from larger national and regional banks in the Massachusetts market. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit quality, deposit competition, and Massachusetts economic conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise and deposits are solid, but CRE concentration, margin compression risk, and the possibility of slowing loan growth mean ordinary-looking credit data can deteriorate in a downturn. | Medium |
INDB AI stock forecast
The INDB AI stock forecast uses the $83.71 reference price and $5.04 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 10%, 6%, and 2% annual EPS growth with 20x, 16x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $134, $96, and $53. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events.
$125 to $140
More likely if loan growth accelerates, the NIM expands, Massachusetts and Rhode Island economic activity supports loan demand and credit quality, credit losses stay minimal, deposit costs remain stable, and the market values INDB near 20x earnings.
$90 to $105
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, the NIM stays near current levels, deposits remain sticky, CRE losses stay manageable, the Massachusetts economy holds steady, and the stock holds a 16x earnings multiple.
$45 to $55
More likely if CRE losses rise meaningfully in New England, deposit costs reprice higher, provisions absorb operating income, rates fall too quickly and compress NIM, acquisition integration costs rise, or the market reprices INDB near 10x reduced earnings.
INDB AI technical analysis
INDB AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 10, 2026 cutoff. Google Finance reported a 52-week high of $87.00 and a 52-week low of $61.55, with beta near 0.77 and average volume near 394,860 shares. Barchart showed the stock above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 55.64. The ADX near 19.48 indicated a mildly trending environment rather than a strong directional move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.71 | Google Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $80.00 to $81.00 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $80.23 and is the first short-term support level to watch. |
| Secondary support | $78.00 to $79.50 | This zone surrounds the 100-day moving average near $79.06 and would be the primary trend test for a moderate pullback. |
| Deep trend support | $75.50 to $76.50 | The 200-day moving average near $76.27 defines the deeper trend support area after the 2026 rally. |
| Near resistance | $84.50 to $87.00 | Google Finance listed a 52-week high near $87.00. A breakout needs price acceptance above $84.50 and a push through the prior high on above-average volume. |
| 50-day moving average | $80.23 | Barchart showed the 50-day moving average near $80.23. Price was above this level at the data cutoff, supporting a positive near-term bias. |
| 200-day moving average | $76.27 | Barchart showed the 200-day moving average near $76.27. Price was above this long-term trend measure, supporting a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI 55.64 (14-day) | Barchart reported RSI near 55.6, which is neutral and not overbought. The stock is below the 52-week high, so momentum could accelerate on a breakout above resistance. |
| Volume | About 394,860 shares average | Google Finance listed average volume near 394,860. A breakout above $87.00 is more convincing when weekly volume expands above this average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.77, low bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes INDB a lower-volatility holding, though earnings, rates, Massachusetts CRE loans, and acquisition integration headlines can still produce sharp moves on a percentage basis. |
| Invalidation | Close below $80.00, then below $76.00 | A sustained break below the 50-day zone weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage for this community bank stock. |
INDB AI trading strategy
The INDB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a Massachusetts community bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit trends, net interest margin, New England economic data, CRE disclosures, credit metrics, capital ratios, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for INDB to hold the $80.00 to $81.00 support zone and then close above $87.00 on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable Massachusetts bank-sector data, flat-to-improving NIM, steady deposits, and contained CRE losses.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone or a sharp rise in Massachusetts CRE problem loans should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If INDB pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving average zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, Massachusetts credit data, CRE non-accruals, or capital ratios, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and dividend case.
Do not assume one quarter of low charge-offs is permanent. Bank CRE and credit losses can surface with a lag, especially in a Massachusetts-focused portfolio.
Track the $0.64 quarterly dividend ($2.56 annual), payout ratio, dividend history, CET1 ratio, deposit growth and mix, loan portfolio mix by CRE and commercial, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, and the efficiency ratio.
Lower confidence if the payout ratio exceeds 50% of EPS on a sustained basis, CRE non-accruals rise quickly, deposits leave or reprice faster, or capital ratios decline.
Investment research summary
INDB earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits from Massachusetts and Rhode Island customers through Rockland Trust and making commercial, CRE, consumer, and small business loans. The customer pays for access to local credit, a regional branch network, relationship banking, and long-standing community presence.
The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits, an 85-branch footprint across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, underwriting discipline, a trusted brand, and regulated banking licenses. INDB has no obvious technology or network-effect advantage, so the franchise depends on service quality, funding stability, credit discipline, and regional economic growth.
The thesis fails if Massachusetts CRE losses rise materially, deposit competition forces funding costs sharply higher, the net interest margin compresses faster than expected, acquisition integration costs exceed projections, or organic loan growth slows below expense growth. The 1.69x price-to-book ratio provides some asset coverage but limited protection if credit losses spike.
CEO Jeffrey Tengel leads Rockland Trust with a strategic focus on organic growth supplemented by acquisitions. The management team has executed a series of acquisitions that expanded the branch network. The key governance question is whether organic profitability and credit discipline keep pace with the larger balance sheet.
Banking is not a high-growth industry, but demand for deposits, commercial credit, and local banking services is persistent. INDB benefits from the Massachusetts and Rhode Island economies, which include healthcare, education, technology, and financial services sectors. The long-term ceiling is set by funding, credit quality, regional economic conditions, and competition from larger national and regional banks.
At about 16.61x TTM EPS and 1.69x book value, INDB is priced as a stable Massachusetts community bank with a below-market beta and a 3% dividend yield. The margin of safety improves if the stock returns toward the moving average zones while deposits, CRE credit, and capital remain healthy. At the July 10 price, the market is pricing a continuation of steady performance without a credit event.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.71 | Google Finance INDB quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.05 billion, verified as $83.71 x 48.33M shares | Google Finance and manual verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 48.33 million | Google Finance shares data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $5.04 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 16.61x (calculated by financial_rigor.py) | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (four quarters) | Approximately $876.2 million (Jun 2025 $174.6M, Sep 2025 $205.2M, Dec 2025 $249.2M, Mar 2026 $247.2M) | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $240.6 million (four quarters) | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | ~$49.54 (estimated from P/B ratio) | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.56 annual, 3.06% yield, quarterly $0.64 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.77 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $61.55 to $87.00 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 16.61x P/E, 1.69x P/B, 18.60x P/FCF, 6.02% earnings yield, 5.38% FCF yield, and 10.17% ROE using financial_rigor.py | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day MA $80.23, 100-day MA $79.06, 200-day MA $76.27, RSI 55.64, ADX 19.48, beta 0.77, average volume 394,860 shares | Barchart and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Branches and footprint | Roughly 85 banking offices across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island | Wikipedia and Rockland Trust | July 12, 2026 |
| Company history | Rockland Trust founded 1907 in Rockland, Massachusetts. Holding company Independent Bank Corp (INDB) publicly traded on Nasdaq. | Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| Employees | Approximately 2,000 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This INDB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Independent Bank Corp. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, deposit costs, CRE credit losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, Massachusetts and Rhode Island economic conditions, or market sentiment change.
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