Imperial Oil Limited research snapshot
IMO AI stock analysis currently views Imperial Oil as a Canadian integrated energy company whose second-quarter 2026 results beat expectations: net income rose to C$2,190 million (C$4.52 per diluted share) from C$949 million a year earlier, helped by crude prices near US$92 per barrel WTI and stronger refining margins. The company holds long-life oil sands assets, refineries, logistics, the Esso and Mobil brands, a growing dividend, and a renewed buyback program, but the shares now trade at a premium valuation with a consensus Sell rating and an average analyst target below the market price. At the July 31, 2026 close of $129.57, reported market capitalization was about $62.65 billion. This page uses scenarios, is for information only, and is not investment advice.
Current price
$129.57
Market cap
About $62.65 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Integrated Canadian energy company with strong second-quarter 2026 earnings, long-life oil sands assets, an accelerated buyback plan, and material commodity-cycle and valuation risk
Trend status
Constructive medium-term trend, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp 52-week gain
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Imperial sells crude, bitumen, refined fuels, lubricants, and chemical products, earning from upstream production and downstream processing, logistics, and marketing margins. Q2 2026 net income more than doubled year over year to C$2,190 million. | High |
| Moat | Long-life oil sands resources, operating know-how, integrated refineries and logistics, the Esso and Mobil brands, and ExxonMobil links support the moat. Global commodity pricing limits direct pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | John Whelan is chairman, president, and CEO. Management emphasized operational reliability, cash flow, a C$0.87 third-quarter dividend, and a renewed buyback of up to 5% of shares, with a plan to accelerate purchases to finish before year end. ExxonMobil owns about 69.6% and controls the company. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income was C$2,190 million (C$4.52 per diluted share), up from C$949 million a year earlier, and six-month net income was C$3,130 million. FY2025 revenue was C$46.92 billion and net income was C$3.27 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $129.57, trailing inputs imply about 21.38x earnings, 3.91x book value, 17.46x free cash flow per share, and a 1.78% dividend yield. The average analyst target of $108.32 sits below the market price. | High |
| Technical trend | The July data show price above the 50-day average near $121.43 and the 200-day average near $111.64. RSI near 65 is positive but approaching overbought after a +53.70% 52-week gain. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include crude and heavy-oil pricing, refining margins and outages, carbon and reclamation costs, capital spending, Canadian policy, reserve assumptions, and minority-shareholder limits under ExxonMobil control. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported facts have high source confidence. Forecast confidence is lower because oil prices, differentials, foreign exchange, policy, and operating events can reprice the shares quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Imperial has durable physical assets and rising capital returns, but medium certainty better reflects cyclical earnings and a valuation premium to analyst targets. | Medium |
IMO AI stock forecast
The IMO AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a fixed target. A reproducible three-year model using $129.57, trailing diluted EPS of $5.97, and selected earnings-multiple assumptions produces about $41.80 in a bear case, $84.80 in a base case, and $142.60 in a bullish case before dividends. The result is a sensitivity exercise, not a price prediction.
$130 to $145 before dividends
More likely if crude prices and refining margins stay supportive, Kearl and Cold Lake volumes improve in the second half of 2026, the accelerated buyback reduces shares, and the market holds a high multiple on strong cash flow.
$75 to $110 before dividends
More likely if earnings moderate toward normalized levels, the market applies a mid-teens multiple to normalized earnings, and shareholder returns offset only part of commodity-cycle volatility. The average analyst target of $108.32 sits in this range.
$40 to $60 before dividends
More likely if crude prices fall, WCS differentials widen, refinery utilization or margins weaken, carbon costs rise, or investors reset the multiple toward lower-cycle earnings.
IMO AI technical analysis
IMO AI technical analysis is constructive but extended after a sharp rally. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, StockAnalysis listed a July 31, 2026 close of $129.57, a 50-day moving average of $121.43, a 200-day moving average of $111.64, RSI of 65.02, beta of 0.82, and 20-day average volume of about 465,808 shares. Price is above long-term support and above short-term trend support.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $129.57 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 NYSE American close at $129.57, up 0.60% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $121 to $123 | This range brackets the 50-day moving average near $121.43. |
| Deeper support | $111 to $114 | The 200-day moving average near $111.64 is the main trend test on any pullback. |
| Near resistance | $130 to $135 | Price action just above the current close is the first upside test. |
| Upper resistance | $135 to $140 | The 52-week high of $139.44 is a chart-monitoring zone, not a guaranteed target. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $121.43, 200-day $111.64 | Price holding above both averages is a constructive medium-term signal. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.02 | Momentum is strong but approaching overbought, so price and volume confirmation still matter. |
| Volume | 20-day average 465,808 shares | Read volume alongside oil prices, quarterly earnings, production, refining, and capital-return announcements. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.82 | Reported beta is below 1, but commodity and policy news can still drive sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $111 | A sustained break below the 200-day area would invalidate the near-term support thesis and require a fresh review of crude prices and fundamentals. |
IMO AI trading strategy
The IMO AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with crude prices, WCS differentials, refinery margins, production, operating reliability, capex, dividends, repurchases, debt, and Canadian policy.
Watch for IMO to hold the $121 to $123 area and reclaim $130 to $135 with supportive crude prices, stable refinery operations, and continued buyback execution. Q2 2026 showed how a strong commodity tape can lift both earnings and the share price.
A failed reclaim followed by a sustained close below $111 should reduce trend confidence, especially if oil prices or operating data also weaken.
If IMO tests $111 to $114, compare price with normalized cash flow, WCS differentials, maintenance capital, debt, carbon obligations, and the durability of the dividend before treating a decline as value.
Do not assume a lower commodity-linked price is attractive if realized prices, refining margins, operating costs, or capital needs worsen.
Track WTI, WCS differentials, Canadian dollar exchange rates, upstream volumes, Kearl and Cold Lake reliability, refinery throughput and utilization, capex, debt, dividends, repurchases, emissions policy, and ExxonMobil related-party exposure.
Position sizing should reflect that Imperial is a cyclical energy equity, not a bond substitute or a guaranteed inflation hedge.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Imperial for energy and fuel products. The company turns oil sands resources, refinery capacity, logistics, brand distribution, and operating execution into commodity-cycle cash flow, with Q2 2026 net income of C$2,190 million.
Long-life oil sands resources, scale, integrated production and refining, technical expertise, logistics, and brand reach are genuine advantages. The company still sells products priced in competitive global and regional markets.
The thesis fails if crude prices fall, WCS differentials widen, refinery outages recur, carbon rules or reclamation costs rise, capital projects disappoint, returns exceed sustainable cash flow, the premium to analyst targets corrects, or minority shareholders face unfavorable controlled-company tradeoffs.
Management is focused on operational reliability, efficiency, capital investment, dividends, and repurchases, and plans to accelerate the renewed buyback. The key question is whether that discipline holds through lower commodity prices and whether related-party governance remains aligned with minority holders.
Energy security and long-life Canadian resources support the industry case. Electrification, emissions policy, methane rules, carbon costs, changing transport demand, and transition capital remain durable counterforces.
The current price reflects a premium to normalized earnings and sits above the average analyst target of $108.32. Margin of safety improves only if normalized cash flow, asset reliability, and capital returns remain resilient after accounting for commodity, policy, and maintenance risks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMO quote reference | $129.57 close on July 31, 2026, up 0.60% on the day; after-hours $130.00 | StockAnalysis IMO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $62.65 billion reported; $62.66 billion calculated from $129.57 x 483.60 million shares, a 0.02% difference | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis IMO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 483.6 million common shares at June 30, 2026 | Imperial Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | C$2,190 million net income, C$4.52 per diluted share, up from C$949 million (C$1.86) in the second quarter of 2025 | Imperial Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Six-month 2026 results | C$3,130 million net income, C$6.46 per diluted share, on C$28,508 million total revenues and other income | Imperial Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating update | 414,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day upstream production, and 331,000 barrels per day refinery throughput at 76% utilization | Imperial Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | C$2,839 million cash and C$3,988 million total debt | Imperial Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | C$46,918 million revenue and C$3,268 million net income, cross-checked between Imperial reporting and StockAnalysis | Imperial 2025 annual financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 corporate guidance update | C$2.0 to C$2.2 billion capex and 441,000 to 460,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day upstream production; refinery throughput guidance updated to 370,000 to 380,000 barrels per day at 85% to 88% utilization | Imperial 2026 corporate guidance and Q2 2026 update | August 2, 2026 |
| Ownership and governance | ExxonMobil owned about 69.6% of Imperial shares and advised it intends to participate in the renewed buyback to maintain that level | Imperial Q2 2026 results and 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Sell consensus from 18 analysts, with an average price target of $108.32, about 16.33% below the current price | StockAnalysis IMO forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $121.43, 200-day moving average $111.64, RSI 65.02, beta 0.82, and 20-day average volume 465,808 shares | StockAnalysis IMO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This IMO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Imperial Oil stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, commodity-price, balance-sheet, operating, regulatory, or geopolitical information changes.
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