Suncor Energy Inc. research snapshot
SU AI stock analysis currently sees Suncor Energy as an integrated Canadian energy business whose operating turnaround is showing in higher production, refining reliability, and cash returns. The trade-off is that the stock has already rallied roughly 70 percent over 52 weeks, the valuation has expanded toward cycle highs, and earnings, free cash flow, and the SU AI stock forecast still depend on crude prices, Canadian heavy-oil differentials, refining margins, and capital discipline. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest cited close was $67.28 on July 31, 2026, and price multiplied by about 1.18 billion shares produced a market capitalization near $79.2 billion. Suncor reports second-quarter 2026 results on August 4, 2026, after the cutoff. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$67.28
Market cap
$79.23 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Operationally stronger Canadian integrated oil-sands producer trading near cycle-high valuation
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a strong 12-month rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Suncor converts oil sands, offshore production, upgrading, refining, marketing, trading, and the Petro-Canada network into cash flow across the energy value chain, with improving operational reliability. | High |
| Moat | Long-life oil sands resources, integrated upgrading and refining, operating know-how, scale, logistics, and the Petro-Canada network are advantages, though crude remains a globally priced commodity. | Medium-high |
| Management | Richard Kruger and the leadership team have delivered an operational turnaround with better reliability, lower breakevens, debt discipline, dividends, and buybacks. The test is preserving discipline at lower commodity prices. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was C$48.9 billion and net earnings were C$5.9 billion. TTM to Q1 2026, revenue was C$51.1 billion, net earnings C$6.3 billion, and free cash flow C$7.2 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $67.28, trailing P/E was about 17.5 and forward P/E about 9.7, with P/B 2.42, P/FCF 15.4, and a 6.5% free-cash-flow yield, a re-rating from the multiples of the past two years. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The cited $67.28 close was above both the 50-day simple average of $61.13 and the 200-day simple average of $54.95, a constructive setup after a strong multi-quarter advance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Oil-price, WCS-differential, refinery-outage, environmental, policy, foreign-exchange, and capital-allocation shocks can change the earnings base rapidly, and the stock is extended after a large run. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported results and operating data have high confidence. Forecast confidence is lower because no model can reliably anticipate commodity prices, crack spreads, policy actions, or outages. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The asset base and current execution are tangible, while the margin of safety is thinner after the recent rally and depends on normalized cycle assumptions. | Medium |
SU AI stock forecast
The SU AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a point target. A reproducible financial_rigor.py three-year model using $67.28, an approximate forward EPS of about $6.94 implied by the cited forward P/E of 9.69, and selected earnings-multiple assumptions produced mechanical values of about $117 in a bull case, $72 in a base case, and $28 in a bear case before dividends. The model is an earnings-and-multiple sensitivity, not a promise or a complete valuation.
$95 to $117 before dividends
More likely if oil prices and refining margins stay supportive, second-quarter 2026 results on August 4 confirm strong cash flow, production and cost guidance hold, and the market keeps a double-digit forward multiple.
$60 to $75 before dividends
More likely if commodity prices normalize, operations remain reliable, free cash flow covers dividends and buybacks, and the market holds a forward multiple near the current 9 to 10 times.
$30 to $45 before dividends
More likely if oil prices or WCS realizations decline, refining margins compress, major maintenance or outages affect volumes, carbon costs rise, or the market prices a lower normalized earnings base.
SU AI technical analysis
SU AI technical analysis uses the latest cited $67.28 close and technical snapshot available before the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis and ChartExchange listed a 50-day simple moving average of $61.13, a 200-day simple moving average of $54.95, and a 52-week range of $37.77 to $70.29 in late July 2026. These are historical references for a static page, so live chart data should be confirmed before any decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $67.28 | StockAnalysis cited this close on July 31, 2026; ChartExchange showed $67.26 for the same session. |
| Near support | $61 to $63 | The cited 50-day simple moving average was $61.13. This zone is the first support if the rally pauses. |
| Long-term support | About $55 | The cited 200-day simple moving average was $54.95. A sustained move below it would weaken the long-term technical setup. |
| Near resistance | $68 to $71 | The 52-week high was $70.29 and the average analyst target was $68.66, putting overhead resistance in this band. |
| 52-week range | $37.77 to $70.29 | ChartExchange and StockAnalysis both cited this range in late July 2026. The stock is trading near the top of it. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $61.13, 200-day $54.95 | The price reference was above both averages, a constructive trend signal after a multi-quarter advance. |
| Momentum | RSI about 69 | StockAnalysis cited an RSI of 69.08, approaching overbought after the strong run, so momentum alone does not show much room. |
| Volume | About 3.3M to 3.7M average shares | StockAnalysis cited 3.33 million shares for the 20-day average and ChartExchange cited 3.65 million for the 10-day average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.57 | Both sources cited a 5-year beta near 0.57, meaning SU has tended to move less than the broad market. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below about $55 | A sustained loss of the 200-day area should invalidate a long-term technical-support thesis and trigger a review of oil prices and fundamentals. |
SU AI trading strategy
The SU AI trading strategy is a non-personalized monitoring framework for a commodity-linked integrated energy stock. It pairs technical levels with WTI, WCS differentials, crack spreads, production, refinery utilization, free funds flow, net debt, dividends, buybacks, and environmental or regulatory developments.
Monitor whether SU holds the $61 to $63 area and builds on the break toward the $68 to $71 band with oil prices, refining margins, and sector peers supporting the move. Confirm the August 4 earnings release maintains production, refining, and free-funds-flow execution.
A failed hold above the 50-day area followed by a sustained break below about $55, especially alongside weaker oil prices or weaker guidance, invalidates this trend-following framework.
If SU pulls back toward long-term support, compare the price with normalized oil and refining assumptions, net debt, maintenance capital, and capital-return capacity before treating the decline as value.
Do not average down solely because a forward multiple looks low. The stock is near cycle highs, so a pullback may reflect weaker commodity realizations, an outage, rising costs, or a changed regulatory outlook.
Track WTI, WCS differentials, crack spreads, oil-sands production, refinery utilization, turnaround schedules, adjusted funds from operations, free funds flow, net debt, buybacks, dividends, and emissions-policy developments, plus the August 4, 2026 second-quarter report.
Keep position sizing consistent with commodity and policy risk. Suncor is not a bond substitute and reported cash generation should be evaluated across a full cycle.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Suncor for fuels and energy products. The company turns long-life oil sands reserves, upgrading, refining, logistics, wholesale activity, and the Petro-Canada network into production and marketing cash flow.
The moat comes from large-scale oil sands resources, integrated facilities, operational know-how, refinery and retail infrastructure, and scale. It is a cost and integration advantage, not immunity from commodity pricing.
The thesis fails if oil prices or heavy-oil realizations fall, refining margins compress, major outages return, maintenance capital rises, debt or carbon costs increase, or capital returns become less covered by normalized free cash flow. After a large rally, a valuation reset is an added path to disappointment.
Management has executed an operational turnaround with better reliability, lower breakevens, debt discipline, dividends, and buybacks. The key question is whether that allocation remains disciplined at lower commodity prices.
Energy security, refinery constraints, and long-life Canadian resources support the integrated model. Electrification, carbon regulation, emissions costs, pipeline economics, and long-term demand uncertainty remain important offsets.
The forward earnings multiple is below the trailing one, but the stock has rallied roughly 70 percent over 52 weeks and sits near the top of its range. The margin of safety depends on normalized crude prices, differentials, refinery margins, and maintenance needs rather than one strong quarter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU quote reference | $67.28 close on July 31, 2026; $67.26 shown by ChartExchange for the same session | StockAnalysis and ChartExchange | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $79.23 billion reported and $79.44 billion calculated from $67.28 x 1.180745189 billion shares, a 0.27% difference | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis, and ChartExchange | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | C$48.908 billion | Suncor Energy fiscal 2025 reporting via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | C$5.918 billion, with TTM to Q1 2026 at C$6.329 billion | Suncor Energy fiscal 2025 reporting via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | C$7.232 billion to Q1 2026, with free cash flow per share of C$5.99; US-dollar TTM FCF near $5.15 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow data | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating data | C$14.481 billion revenue, C$2.100 billion net earnings, C$1.77 EPS, and C$1.318 billion free cash flow | Suncor Q1 2026 reporting via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet position | C$3.271 billion cash and investments, C$14.812 billion total debt, and C$11.541 billion net debt as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet data | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing P/E 17.48, forward P/E 9.69, P/B 2.42, P/FCF 15.37, and EV/EBITDA 7.83 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical reference levels | 50-day SMA $61.13, 200-day SMA $54.95, RSI 69.08, and 52-week range $37.77 to $70.29 | StockAnalysis and ChartExchange | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 21 analysts with an average target of $68.66, a low of $66.95, and a high of $70.96 | StockAnalysis forecast data (S&P Global and TipRanks) | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $1.71 per share, a 2.55% yield, with the last ex-dividend date on June 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis dividend data | August 2, 2026 |
This SU AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and stated assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, commodity conditions, and your own risk constraints before making any investment decision.
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