IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. research snapshot
IDYA AI stock analysis currently reads IDEAYA Biosciences as a clinical-stage precision oncology company whose lead asset, darovasertib, targets uveal melanoma, while a broader synthetic lethality platform (IDE892, IDE397, IDE161, IDE705) provides pipeline optionality backed by blue-chip partners. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available price was $38.25 and the implied market capitalization was about $3.68 billion using approximately 96.2 million shares. The company held $671.2 million in cash with minimal debt, partially offsetting a TTM net loss of about $140 million. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$38.25
Market cap
About $3.68 billion by price times shares
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Clinical-stage precision oncology company with darovasertib lead, synthetic lethality platform, and partner validation from GSK, Roche, Pfizer, and Novartis; binary pipeline risk offsets strong cash position
Trend status
Supported by recent darovasertib Phase 2/3 progress and Roche IDE892 partnership; dilution from $300M June 2026 offering and binary readout risk remain overhangs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | IDEAYA discovers and develops targeted cancer therapies for patients with specific molecular alterations. The business model combines internal drug discovery (darovasertib, IDE397, IDE892, IDE161) with partnered programs (IDE705 with GSK, clinical collaborations with Roche and AstraZeneca). | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary synthetic lethality platform technology, IP around specific targets (PKC, MAT2A, PARG, POLQ, PRMT5, WRN), and deep partnership relationships with large pharma. The moat is unproven until drugs reach approval and commercial adoption. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO and founder Yujiro S. Hata was recently elected Chairman. The team has built a credible platform, secured blue-chip pharma partnerships, and maintained a strong cash position. The key test is executing clinical trials on time and converting platform science into approved drugs. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $225.27 million (from partnership milestones) and TTM net loss was $140.06 million. The company held $671.2 million cash with minimal debt at March 31, 2026. A $300 million public offering closed in June 2026 added cash but diluted existing holders. | High |
| Valuation | At $38.25, the local audit calculated 16.35x TTM sales and 3.90x book value. P/E is not meaningful due to negative earnings. Enterprise value of about $2.98 billion implies the market is assigning significant pipeline value beyond the net cash position. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock has rallied from a 52-week low of $21.33 to near the $38-$40 range, showing strong upward momentum. Biotech stocks are driven more by clinical catalysts than technical patterns, making levels less reliable than for mature companies. | Low-medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high for a pre-profit biotech. Clinical trial failure, regulatory setback, competitive displacement, equity dilution, cash burn, and binary pipeline outcomes can produce rapid large-magnitude price moves in either direction. | High |
| AI confidence | The evidence base is strong for financial position and partnership facts, but AI cannot predict the outcome of ongoing clinical trials, regulatory interactions, or competitive pipeline developments that determine IDYA enterprise value. | Medium for financial data |
| Investment certainty | IDYA is a high-risk, high-uncertainty biotech investment. A strong cash position and pharma partnerships provide a floor, but the upside case depends on positive clinical data, regulatory approval, and commercial execution that may take years to play out. | Low |
IDYA AI stock forecast
The IDYA AI stock forecast uses a pipeline-probability framework rather than a traditional earnings model, since IDEAYA has negative EPS. At the $38.25 cutoff price, the three scenarios reflect different clinical and regulatory outcomes over a 3-year horizon. These are model scenarios, not price targets.
$55 to $70
More likely if darovasertib shows positive Phase 3 data and advances toward regulatory filing in uveal melanoma, IDE892 (PRMT5 inhibitor) delivers strong early efficacy in MTAP-deleted pancreatic cancer, partnership milestones accelerate, and the company avoids major dilution. Additional pipeline assets (IDE397, IDE161, IDE275) contributing positive data would further support the case.
$30 to $45
More likely if darovasertib progresses but data are mixed or incremental, IDE892 shows acceptable but not transformative early results, the partnership pipeline generates steady milestone revenue but no blockbuster news, and the company uses some of the June 2026 offering proceeds for ongoing R&D without major new dilution.
$12 to $22
More likely if a pivotal darovasertib trial misses its endpoint or shows insufficient differentiation, IDE892 or IDE397 encounter safety or efficacy issues, a competitor advances a superior mechanism, cash burn accelerates without partnership backstop, or further significant dilution is needed to fund operations.
IDYA AI technical analysis
IDYA AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 price data from Yahoo Finance. Biotech stock technical levels are less reliable than for mature companies because clinical catalyst dates, not gradual fundamentals, drive most price moves. Confirm all levels in a live chart because this page uses a static data cutoff.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | About $38.25 | Latest available pre-market indication as of July 12, 2026. The July 8 close was $37.96. |
| Near support | $35 to $37 | June-July 2026 consolidation zone. A hold above this area suggests the post-offering digestion is constructive. |
| Key support | About $30 to $32 | Pre-offering support from May-June 2026 before the darovasertib and Roche partnership news. |
| Major support | About $21.33 | The 52-week low. A move toward this level would likely require a significant clinical or financing setback. |
| Near resistance | $39 to $40.60 | The 52-week high area near $40.58. A breakout above this range on high volume and positive news would be technically constructive. |
| Next resistance | $45 to $48 | Prior resistance from early 2026 and an analyst target area. A catalyst-driven move above this would open a test of higher levels. |
| Momentum | Strong uptrend from 52-week low | IDYA has rallied roughly 80% from its $21.33 low. The trend is positive but extended, and biotech stocks can reverse sharply on bad news. |
| Volume | About 1.4 million shares average | Yahoo Finance average volume. Volume typically spikes around clinical data releases and equity offerings. |
| Volatility | Very high for a clinical-stage biotech | IDYA has a beta of -0.09 (Yahoo), which reflects its low correlation with broad market returns. Individual stock volatility is driven by company-specific clinical catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $30 | A confirmed break below $30 on negative clinical or financing news should trigger a fresh assessment of pipeline probability and cash runway. |
IDYA AI trading strategy
The IDYA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Given the binary nature of biotech catalysts, position sizing and invalidation rules are more important than entry timing. Pair with live clinical trial calendars, updated cash runway data, and current partnership news.
Identify upcoming clinical data readouts (darovasertib, IDE892, IDE397) and regulatory milestones. Research the expected data quality, competitive landscape, and partnership implications before the event. Do not trade on anticipation alone.
Define a maximum loss before the catalyst. Biotech stocks can gap 30-50% on clinical data, so position size must match the risk tolerance. Do not average down after a trial failure.
If IDYA sells off sharply after a financing, pipeline delay, or mixed data but the core platform thesis remains intact, monitor for stabilization volume and insider buying before considering a position.
Do not buy a falling biotech solely because the cash balance looks attractive. A setback in one program can signal broader platform risk. Wait for clinical clarity or insider conviction signals.
IDYA is a high-conviction-only position that should be sized as a small fraction of a diversified portfolio. Monitor cash runway, share count, partnership milestones, and clinical trial enrollment updates each quarter.
Reduce or exit if key partnership interest wanes, if a competitor shows clearly superior data in the same indication, if insider selling accelerates, or if the cash runway shortens without a financing plan.
Investment research summary
IDEAYA discovers cancer drugs for patients with specific genetic changes, using a synthetic lethality platform. Its most advanced asset, darovasertib, targets uveal melanoma through PKC inhibition, while the pipeline includes MAT2A (IDE397), PARG (IDE161), POLQ (IDE705 with GSK), MTA-cooperative PRMT5 (IDE892 with Roche), WRN (IDE275), and DLL3 ADC (IDE849) programs. Revenue comes from partnership milestones rather than product sales.
IDEAYA moat rests on its proprietary synthetic lethality discovery platform (DECIPHER, INQUIRE, HARMONY), a growing IP estate around specific cancer targets, and deep partnerships with GSK, Roche, Pfizer, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Gilead, and Servier. The moat is unproven until drugs pass clinical trials and reach patients. Platform value will be tested as competitors develop similar synthetic lethality approaches.
The investment thesis fails if darovasertib misses its primary endpoint in a pivotal trial, if IDE892 or IDE397 show insufficient differentiation from competitors, if partnership support weakens, or if the platform fails to generate additional drug candidates. A prolonged cash burn without corresponding value creation would force dilutive financing. Competitors advancing faster to market with similar mechanisms is another failure path.
CEO Yujiro S. Hata, recently elected Chairman, has led IDEAYA since founding in 2015, building a 145-person organization with blue-chip pharma partnerships. The team has demonstrated capital discipline (raising only when terms were favorable) and scientific credibility. The key test is whether management can convert platform science into approved, commercially successful drugs.
Precision oncology and synthetic lethality represent a long-duration trend in cancer treatment. The ability to match drugs to patients with specific genetic alterations is becoming standard of care. IDEAYA operates at the intersection of several promising areas: PKC inhibition in uveal melanoma, MAT2A in MTAP-deleted cancers, MTA-cooperative PRMT5 inhibition, and WRN helicase inhibition. However, the competitive landscape is intensifying as large biopharma and other biotechs pursue similar targets.
At $38.25, IDYA trades at 16.35x TTM revenue and 3.90x book value, with an enterprise value of about $2.98 billion against $671.2 million cash and minimal debt. The market is ascribing significant pipeline value above net cash. Margin of safety is low for a binary-outcome biotech: a single clinical failure could reduce enterprise value by 50% or more, while a successful approval could multiply it.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest available price | $38.25 as of July 12, 2026 (pre-market); last close $37.96 on July 8 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 96.2 million shares (pre-offering), with $300 million June 2026 offering adding dilution | Yahoo Finance statistics and SEC filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization audit | $3.6794 billion calculated from $38.25 x 96.2M shares; 0.01% variance against the $3.68B reported input | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $225.27 million, cross-validated from Yahoo Finance ($225.27M) and StockAnalysis ($225M) | Yahoo Finance financials and StockAnalysis revenue | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | -$140.06 million net loss and -$1.57 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $671.2 million cash and minimal debt with 3.05% debt/equity ratio | Yahoo Finance balance sheet statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $2.98 billion at the cutoff date | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/S 14.81x (Yahoo), P/B 3.87x (Yahoo), negative P/E. Local calculation: P/S 16.35x, P/B 3.90x | Yahoo Finance and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Profitability | Profit margin -62.17%, ROE -14.28%, ROA -10.76% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow | -$57.25 million TTM | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash from June 2026 offering | $300 million public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants, closed late June 2026 | IDYA SEC Form 8-K and PR Newswire | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 1-year price target $52.29 (average), range $36-$66; RBC Capital maintained Outperform with target lowered to $48 | Yahoo Finance analysis page | July 12, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market cap, P/S, P/B, revenue cross-validation were calculated locally with exact decimal arithmetic | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | July 12, 2026 |
This IDYA AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if clinical trial results, regulatory decisions, competitive developments, partnership terms, financing needs, equity dilution, cash burn rates, analyst sentiment, or market conditions change.
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