Ichor Holdings, Ltd. research snapshot
ICHR AI stock analysis reads Ichor Holdings as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $80.14 on August 3, 2026, up 4.79 or 6.36% from the $75.27 July 31 close, within a session range near $71.78 to $82.79, carrying a market capitalization near $2.79 billion verified as $80.14 times about 34.87 million shares outstanding. Ichor designs and manufactures gas delivery, chemical delivery, and precision component subsystems used inside semiconductor wafer fabrication tools. Revenue rose 11.6% in fiscal 2025 to $947.65 million and TTM revenue reached $959.26 million, but TTM GAAP net income was still negative at -$50.69 million with TTM EPS of -$1.48. Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $256.07 million rose 4.7% year over year and non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 beat the $0.13 consensus, and management guided Q2 revenue to $290 million to $310 million with non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 to $0.35. The stock rallied about 510% off the $13.12 low to a $113.58 high in early July and then corrected roughly 29%, with StockAnalysis.com carrying a Strong Buy consensus and an average price target of $92.29 across seven analysts. Q2 fiscal 2026 results were scheduled for release after the market close on August 3, 2026 and are not incorporated into this page. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$80.14 at the August 3, 2026 close, up 4.79 or 6.36% from the $75.27 July 31 close, within a session range of $71.78 to $82.79 after opening at $73.52
Market cap
About $2.79 billion verified as $80.14 times 34.87 million shares outstanding
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Cyclical semiconductor equipment supplier with a Strong Buy analyst consensus, but extreme price volatility, still-negative earnings, and a large year-to-date run leave limited near-term conviction
Trend status
Correcting after a 29% drawdown from the July 1 all-time high near $113.58; ICHR now chops between roughly $62 and $83 with very high volatility ahead of the Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ichor is a niche but essential supplier of gas and chemical delivery subsystems and precision components for semiconductor capital equipment. TTM revenue reached $959.26 million, but TTM net income was still -$50.69 million, so the business is not yet profitable on a GAAP basis. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from qualification cycles, engineering relationships with major equipment OEMs, and manufacturing scale in precision components. Switching costs are real but the products are not proprietary IP that competitors cannot replicate over time. | Low-medium |
| Management | Management has navigated a deep cyclical downturn and maintained operational capacity. Insider ownership is low near 1.70% to 2.29%, and the CEO and other insiders have been net sellers recently, which is a caution flag against the share price run. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue troughed in fiscal 2023 and has recovered. Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 11.6% to $947.65 million. Q1 FY26 revenue rose 4.7% year over year to $256.07 million with non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 beating consensus, and management guided Q2 FY26 revenue to $290-310 million with non-GAAP EPS of $0.25-0.35. | High |
| Valuation | At $80.14, price to sales is about 2.9x, price to book is about 4.1x, and forward PE is roughly 58x based on the FY2026 consensus EPS of $1.38. The multiple requires a strong profit recovery and offers little traditional margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock corrected about 29% from the $113.58 July 1 high to $80.14 and now trades below its 50-day moving average near $84.44 while staying well above its 200-day moving average near $49.24. RSI near 47 signals neutral momentum after the correction. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. The stock is deeply cyclical, depends on WFE capital spending, is extremely volatile with single-day swings of 10% or more in July, carries rising short interest, and trades well above its 200-day moving average after a rapid run. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for historical financials, share count, price math, and market data. Medium confidence for forward scenarios and consensus estimates. Low confidence for the Q2 2026 report because it had not been released at the data cutoff. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Lower than the AI data confidence. The verified data set confirms a cyclical recovery is underway, but the stock remains expensive on forward earnings, extremely volatile, and dependent on the Q2 report and sustained WFE demand to justify the current multiple. | Medium-low |
ICHR AI stock forecast
The ICHR AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise prediction. The stock already rallied more than 500% off its low and corrected 29%, and the FY2026 consensus EPS of $1.38 still leaves the stock near 58x forward earnings at current prices, so the outcome depends heavily on WFE demand and the August 2026 earnings reports.
$100 to $125
More likely if Ichor beats Q2 guidance of $290-310 million revenue, WFE spending accelerates on AI-driven fab builds, gross margins recover toward historical averages, and the stock reclaims the 50-day moving average near $84 and the $100 area with volume. Analyst price targets near $115 to $125 from Stifel, TD Cowen, and B. Riley frame the upper bound.
$62 to $95
More likely if WFE recovery proceeds at a moderate pace, Ichor meets or slightly beats guidance, margins improve gradually, and the stock keeps chopping in the $62 to $95 range that has contained trading since late June while the cycle plays out.
$40 to $62
More likely if Q2 results disappoint, the AI-driven capex cycle peaks sooner than expected, Ichor faces margin pressure from customer concentration or raw material costs, or the stock resumes its correction toward the 200-day moving average near $49 after the volatile July drawdown.
ICHR AI technical analysis
ICHR AI technical analysis uses the $80.14 August 3, 2026 closing reference. The stock rallied from $13.12 to a $113.58 high on July 1, 2026 and then corrected roughly 29% to $80.14. StockAnalysis.com listed beta at 1.78, a 50-day moving average near $84.44, a 200-day moving average near $49.24, and RSI near 47.31. Momentum is neutral after the correction and volatility is extreme, with single-day moves of more than 10% seen in late July.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $80.14 | StockAnalysis.com listed the August 3, 2026 close at $80.14 with an intraday range of $71.78 to $82.79. This is the quote used for the page. |
| Near support | $74 to $76 | The July 30-31 close zone near $74.97 to $75.27. A break below this area would point back toward the July 28 low of $68.10. |
| Major support | $62 to $68 | The July 28-29 low cluster between $61.75 and $68.10. This zone held after the sharp July drawdown and is the first major shelf below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $82.79 to $84.44 | The August 3 intraday high of $82.79 and the 50-day moving average near $84.44. A clean break above this zone with volume would signal a resumption of the uptrend. |
| Upper resistance | $94 to $98 | The July 15-23 trading area near $93 to $98. This is the next supply zone if the stock clears the 50-day moving average. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $84.44 | StockAnalysis.com listed the 50-day moving average at $84.44. The stock needs to reclaim this level to restore short-term bullish momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $49.24 | StockAnalysis.com listed the 200-day moving average at $49.24. The stock remains well above this level, so the long-term uptrend is still intact unless price falls through the $62 zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 47.31 | StockAnalysis.com listed the 14-day RSI at 47.31, neutral after the late-July correction. This reflects a market that is no longer overbought but has not yet confirmed a new up leg. |
| Volume | About 977,550 average | StockAnalysis.com listed average 20-day volume near 977,550 shares. Volume spiked above 1.4 million shares during the July volatility, so sustained above-average volume is needed to confirm trend changes. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.78 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance listed a five-year beta of 1.78. The stock moves significantly more than the market and showed daily moves above 10% in late July, requiring wide risk controls. |
| Invalidation | Close below $62 | A close below the $61.75 to $62.25 support zone would invalidate the corrective base and open the path toward the 200-day moving average near $49, given the elevated beta and extreme volatility. |
ICHR AI trading strategy
The ICHR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research. It is not a personalized buy, sell, or hold recommendation. Given the extreme volatility, traders should pair any setup with position sizing, stop logic, the August 2026 earnings dates, WFE industry data, and news checks.
Wait for ICHR to reclaim and hold the 50-day moving average near $84.44 on rising volume after the July correction, then enter on a follow-through day. Use a trailing stop and position size that accounts for beta of 1.78 and single-day moves above 10%.
A close back below the $74 to $76 support zone, or a failed rally at the 50-day moving average, should invalidate the trend-following setup. Earnings-driven gaps in August make stops wider than normal.
If ICHR spikes toward the $94 to $98 resistance without fundamental confirmation, or breaks below the $62 support on a closing basis, consider that the move is extended. Wait for a volume climax or a lower-high pattern before considering counter-trend entries.
Do not short a strong cyclical uptrend without a clear invalidation signal. Mean-reversion in a high-beta stock with positive analyst momentum carries risk of sustained continuation, so size small and define invalidation before entry.
Track the Q2 FY26 report, WFE spending data, Ichor revenue guidance versus actual results, gross margin trajectory, operating leverage, customer concentration among top OEMs, short interest changes, and insider selling trends.
Reduce confidence if results disappoint the $290-310 million Q2 guidance or if margin recovery is slower than expected. Rising short interest near 5.4% of float and continued insider selling should also lower conviction.
Investment research summary
Ichor is paid to design and manufacture the gas delivery, chemical delivery, and precision component subsystems that control process gases and liquid chemistries inside semiconductor wafer fabrication tools. Customers are equipment OEMs building etch, deposition, cleaning, and other process chambers.
The moat comes from years-long qualification cycles with OEMs, precision manufacturing expertise, and global engineering support in key semiconductor hubs. The weak point is that the products, while critical, are not proprietary intellectual property that competitors cannot replicate over time.
The thesis fails if the WFE recovery is weaker than expected, if AI-related fab buildouts slow, if Ichor loses share to competitors such as Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT), or if margin recovery is limited by customer pricing pressure and raw material costs. The stock could also extend its 29% correction from the July high.
Management has preserved the business through a deep cyclical downturn without major restructuring. Insider ownership is low near 1.70% to 2.29%, and recent insider and CEO selling has been reported, which is a caution against the share price run. Capital allocation includes capacity expansion and bolt-on activities.
WFE spending is driven by AI chip demand, advanced-node geopolitical investments, and the technology upgrade cycle. Ichor sits in the equipment supply chain that benefits directly from fab buildouts. The risk is that WFE remains cyclical and the current upcycle may be shorter or shallower than expected.
At about $2.79 billion market value and still-negative TTM net income, ICHR offers no conventional margin of safety. The forward PE near 58x based on FY2026 consensus EPS of $1.38 requires earnings to grow dramatically. The stock essentially offers a wide range of outcomes that depend on the WFE cycle and August earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $80.14 at the August 3, 2026 close, intraday range $71.78 to $82.79 | StockAnalysis.com ICHR stock price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.79 billion, verified as $80.14 times 34.87 million common shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $959.26 million, up 7.52% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue | $947.65 million, up 11.62% from $849.04 million in fiscal 2024 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | -$50.69 million, TTM EPS of -$1.48 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 FY26 revenue and non-GAAP EPS | $256.07 million revenue, $0.15 non-GAAP EPS versus $0.13 consensus | MarketBeat earnings history and StockAnalysis.com filings | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 FY26 guidance | Revenue of $290-310 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25-0.35 | MarketBeat earnings guidance and Q1 2026 transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents of $89.09 million, total debt of $158.67 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation math | P/S about 2.9x, P/B about 4.1x, forward PE about 58x on FY2026 consensus EPS of $1.38 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 7 analysts with an average price target of $92.29 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Beta 1.78, 50-day MA near $84.44, 200-day MA near $49.24, RSI near 47.31, average volume near 977,550 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $13.12 to $113.58 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.87 million shares short, about 5.37% of shares outstanding, up 11.26% month over month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Ownership | Insider ownership near 1.70% to 2.29%, institutional ownership near 94.8% | MarketBeat ownership data and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This ICHR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Ichor Holdings shares. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the stated cutoff and can be wrong.
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