Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. research snapshot
UCTT AI stock analysis currently reads Ultra Clean Holdings as a structurally positioned semiconductor capital equipment supply chain company riding the AI-driven WFE investment cycle, but one that has corrected sharply from an extreme June peak while its earnings remain loss-making on a GAAP basis. At the July 31, 2026 close, the latest verified price was $83.31, market capitalization was about $3.73 billion, and the stock was still up roughly 229% year to date despite sitting about 42% below its June 30, 2026 high of $144.22. Ultra Clean provides critical subsystems, components, gas delivery systems, and chamber parts cleaning and coating services to wafer fab equipment makers including Applied Materials and Lam Research. Q1 2026 revenue of $533.7 million beat the midpoint of guidance, Q2 2026 guidance points to $565 million to $605 million, and analysts polled by S&P Global hold a Strong Buy consensus with a $116.40 average price target. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$83.31
Market cap
$3.73 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Improving fundamentals with extended valuation risk
Trend status
Corrective pullback within a longer uptrend; below the 50-day average, above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ultra Clean provides critical subsystems, components, gas delivery products, and chamber parts cleaning and coating services for semiconductor capital equipment makers such as Applied Materials and Lam Research. Revenue depends on the WFE cycle. Switching costs are moderate because parts must be engineered and qualified to exacting fab specifications. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from engineering qualifications, long-term supply relationships with top OEMs, and scale in precision manufacturing and cleaning operations. Customer concentration and cyclical demand limit moat durability. | Medium |
| Management | CEO James Xiao leads the company and has been guiding it through the AI-driven upcycle. CFO Sheri Savage is retiring and Michael Keogh joins as CFO effective August 5, 2026. Management is executing a UCT 3.0 strategy aimed at a larger addressable market while managing a down-cycle cost base. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue TTM is about $2.07 billion with a net loss of roughly $194 million TTM, heavily weighted by a Q2 2025 write-down. Q1 2026 revenue of $533.7 million beat the midpoint of guidance, with a GAAP loss of $17.9 million but positive non-GAAP net income of $14.5 million. Q2 2026 guidance implies revenue of $565 million to $605 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | Forward P/E of about 24.6x, Price/Sales of about 1.80x, and EV/Revenue of about 2.03x. Even after the correction, the stock prices in a sharp earnings recovery. The margin of safety is thin for a cyclical name with negative TTM GAAP earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | UCTT corrected sharply from the $144.22 June high to $83.31, breaking below the 50-day moving average near $99 while holding above the 200-day moving average near $61. RSI has reset from overbought to neutral near 43. Volatility is extreme, with daily moves above 10%. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are a WFE spending pullback, customer concentration with Applied Materials and Lam Research, debt-to-equity around 111%, negative TTM GAAP earnings and free cash flow, short interest near 8% of shares outstanding, and beta of 1.83. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for business model understanding, market data, and major risk categories. Lower confidence for near-term price direction given the sharp correction and the binary August 3 earnings catalyst. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. The business is cyclical and the stock has repriced dramatically in both directions in 2026. Further progress requires durable WFE spending, margin recovery, and confirmation from Q2 2026 results. | Low to medium |
UCTT AI stock forecast
The UCTT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $83.31 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires Q2 2026 results to confirm the guidance of $565 million to $605 million, durable AI-driven WFE spending, and margin recovery. The base case assumes normal cyclical expansion with continued volatility. The bearish case assumes a WFE spending slowdown, customer concentration pressure, or an inability to restore GAAP profitability.
$105 to $125
More likely if Q2 2026 results meet or beat guidance, global WFE spending stays elevated on AI-driven capacity expansion, Ultra Clean sustains revenue growth with non-GAAP operating margins expanding, and the market applies a forward multiple closer to the higher analyst targets near $130.
$75 to $95
More likely if revenue grows in line with guidance, margins improve but remain below peak levels, and the stock consolidates between the 200-day and 50-day moving averages while investors keep a cautious multiple on a cyclical with negative GAAP earnings.
$50 to $70
More likely if WFE demand decelerates, customer concentration becomes a headwind, margins stay compressed, or a broader semiconductor cycle turns down, pushing the stock back toward and below the 200-day moving average near $61.
UCTT AI technical analysis
UCTT AI technical analysis starts from the $83.31 close on July 31, 2026, used for this August 3, 2026 static page. The stock peaked at $144.22 on June 30, 2026, then corrected about 42%, breaking below the 50-day moving average near $99 while holding above the 200-day moving average near $61. RSI reset from overbought to neutral near 43. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.31 | Latest verified close on July 31, 2026, used as the price basis for this page. |
| Near support | $75 to $78 | The July 28 to 30 lows ahead of the late-month rebound. A break below this zone would pressure the July 29 swing low. |
| Secondary support | $69.57 | The July 29, 2026 swing low. A close below it would point toward the 200-day moving average. |
| 200-day moving average | About $61 | The longer-term trend reference. Price is above it, which keeps the structural uptrend intact for now. |
| Near resistance | $92 to $100 | The July 24 to 27 breakdown zone and the round $100 level. Reclaiming this area would signal a shorter-term recovery. |
| Secondary resistance | $106 to $115 | The mid-July trading zone before the selloff accelerated. This area also overlaps the low end of analyst price targets. |
| 52-week high | $144.22 | Reached on June 30, 2026. The stock corrected about 42% from this level into the July 31 close. |
| Momentum | RSI neutral near 43 | RSI reset from overbought to neutral during the correction. MACD momentum has cooled, consistent with a pullback phase. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.83 | High beta means UCTT moves more than the market in both directions. July included daily swings above 10% in both directions. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.4M shares | Volume spiked during the July correction, confirming active distribution and repositioning. Earnings on August 3 will be a major volume catalyst. |
UCTT AI trading strategy
The following frameworks are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not personalized financial advice. UCTT is a high-beta, cyclical name that tripled in early 2026 and then corrected about 42% in a few weeks. Any strategy should account for the cyclical nature of semiconductor capital equipment demand, valuation sensitivity, and the possibility of large daily swings.
Wait for a confirmed reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $99 on rising volume, or for a base to form above the 200-day moving average near $61 with a reversal candle. Enter on confirmation and trail stops using 1.5x ATR or the 200-day MA, whichever is tighter. Take partial profits at resistance near $92 to $100 and again near $106 to $115.
High beta means position size should be smaller than for a lower-volatility name. Use a stop at 2x ATR below entry or 15% to 20% below entry, whichever is lower. The August 3 earnings report is a gap-risk event that should be sized for.
After the sharp correction, fade moves back toward the 200-day moving average near $61 only with a clear rejection candle and volume confirmation, targeting a bounce toward the 50-day MA. Alternatively, wait for an oversold reading after an earnings gap and trade the recovery toward the first resistance zone.
Counter-trend trades in a high-beta stock require tight stops. Place the stop below the 200-day MA or the recent swing low, and keep size small because the stock has shown daily moves above 10% in both directions.
Investment research summary
Ultra Clean designs, engineers, and manufactures critical subsystems, components, gas delivery products, and assemblies for semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment, and provides chamber parts cleaning and coating services for fabs. Customers include top OEMs such as Applied Materials and Lam Research. Revenue is cyclical and tied to global WFE investment.
Barriers to entry include the engineering qualification process required to become an approved supplier, long-standing OEM relationships, and the capital needed for precision manufacturing and cleanroom operations. However, customer concentration and limited pricing power during downturns cap moat durability.
The thesis fails if: (1) WFE spending peaks and enters a cyclical decline as AI investment expectations moderate; (2) Ultra Clean loses share to lower-cost competitors; (3) the company cannot convert revenue growth into sustainable GAAP and free cash flow profitability; or (4) customer concentration leads to order volatility or pricing pressure.
CEO James Xiao has positioned UCT as a beneficiary of the AI-driven expansion while managing a cost base built for the down-cycle. CFO Sheri Savage is retiring and Michael Keogh joins as CFO effective August 5, 2026, a transition that will bring a new set of financial disciplines. The UCT 3.0 strategy targets a larger addressable market across products and services.
The semiconductor industry is in an AI-driven capital spending cycle. WFE spending is projected to stay elevated as chipmakers build capacity for AI accelerators, HBM memory, and advanced nodes. Ultra Clean sits inside this trend through its OEM customer base, but results remain tied to the capital spending cycle rather than to its own secular growth alone.
At $83.31, UCTT trades at about 1.80x TTM revenue, 5.94x book value, and 24.6x forward earnings estimates. With negative TTM GAAP earnings and free cash flow, the current price still embeds a recovery to profitability. Relative to its own history and to analyst targets, the margin of safety has widened after the correction but remains thin for a high-beta cyclical.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.31 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.73 billion | StockAnalysis / Yahoo Finance | July 31, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.19 billion | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.07 billion | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | -$194.1 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | -$4.29 | StockAnalysis / Yahoo Finance | July 31, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | About 24.6x | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | About 1.80x | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| Price/Book | About 5.94x | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash & equivalents | $323.5 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| Total debt | $780.4 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | About 111% | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| YTD total return | +228.90% | Yahoo Finance | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $21.28 - $144.22 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy, average target $116.40 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global / TipRanks) | July 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $533.7 million | Ultra Clean press release | April 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue guidance | $565 million to $605 million | Ultra Clean press release | April 28, 2026 |
This UCTT AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any kind. All analyses, forecasts, and scenarios are based on publicly available data as of the stated cutoff date and involve inherent uncertainty. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing in stocks involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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