Hexcel Corporation research snapshot
HXL AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Hexcel Corporation as a high-quality aerospace composites leader riding a strong commercial and defense upcycle at a premium valuation. The stock closed at $102.95 on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $103.03 and a market capitalization near $7.77 billion, computed as $102.95 times 75.43 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, and SEC EDGAR XBRL, which lists 75,623,452 shares as of July 27, 2026. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, beat expectations with sales of $529.3 million up 8.0% (8.1% in constant currency), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.64 up from $0.17, adjusted EPS of $0.66 up 32% from $0.50, and adjusted operating margin of 13.9% versus 11.1%, driven by commercial aerospace sales up 18.3% on the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 widebodies. Management raised full-year 2026 sales guidance to $2.025 billion to $2.125 billion, lifted adjusted EPS guidance to $2.30 to $2.40, kept free cash flow guidance above $195 million, and reiterated a path to 18% adjusted operating margin before the end of the decade, backed by about $500 million of incremental annual commercial sales at peak OEM build rates and about $200 million of incremental defense and space sales. The stock hit a 52-week high of $111.74 on July 24, 2026, then cooled to the $102.95 close on July 31, still above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $97.62, $91.88, and $84.89 but below its 5-day and 20-day averages near $106.24 and $104.03. The AI score sits at 58 out of 100 with a rating of quality composites leader in a strong aerospace upcycle, but premium valuation and cycle risk temper conviction.
Current price
$102.95
Market cap
$7.77 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Quality composites leader in a strong aerospace upcycle, but premium valuation and cycle risk temper conviction
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, but short-term momentum cooled below the 5-day and 20-day averages after the post-earnings spike
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hexcel is a leading maker of advanced lightweight composites for aerospace, selling carbon fiber, reinforcements, prepregs, honeycomb, and engineered structures through two segments, Composite Materials (about 80% of Q2 sales) and Engineered Products (about 20%), with TTM revenue near $1.98 billion, Q2 2026 gross margin of 26.1%, and a first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 21%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat combines certification and qualification barriers that take years, long-term agreements with Airbus and Boeing, vertical integration from carbon fiber to composite structures, proprietary process technology, and a global manufacturing footprint, which together create high switching costs. | Medium-high |
| Management | Tom Gentile, the former Spirit AeroSystems CEO who joined in April 2025, is executing on the aerospace ramp with visible results: Q2 adjusted EPS up 32%, full-year guidance raised, a path to 18% adjusted operating margin, and a new CFO, Jamie Coogan, focused on paying down debt and returning leverage toward the 1.5x to 2.0x target. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 sales of $529.3 million grew 8.0%, GAAP EPS rose to $0.64 from $0.17, adjusted EPS rose 32% to $0.66, first-half free cash flow turned positive to $51.8 million from a $46.6 million use a year ago, and 2026 guidance was raised for both sales and adjusted EPS. | High |
| Valuation | At about 51.98x trailing GAAP EPS, 38.76x forward earnings, 30.38x trailing free cash flow, and 5.99x book value, the market already prices in sustained execution, leaving a thin margin of safety. | Medium |
| Technical trend | HXL closed at $102.95 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day and 20-day averages near $106.24 and $104.03 after a 7.7% pullback from the 52-week high of $111.74, with 14-day RSI near 50. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are a downturn or stall in the commercial aerospace cycle, customer concentration with Airbus (about 40% of sales) and Boeing, a premium valuation, oil and acrylonitrile input cost inflation, foreign exchange headwinds from a weaker dollar, and execution or supply chain slippage in the production ramp. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across Macrotrends, StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because cycle timing, input costs, foreign exchange, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
HXL AI stock forecast
The HXL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $102.95 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $2.28, versus management guidance of $2.30 to $2.40. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $31, a base area near $90, and a bullish area near $150 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 20%, 12%, and -5% and exit multiples of 38x, 28x, and 16x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$140 to $160
More likely if commercial aerospace build rates keep ramping toward peak, the A350 and 737 programs beat the guided trajectory, margins climb toward the 18% adjusted operating margin target, and investors hold the stock near a 30x-plus forward multiple.
$80 to $100
More likely if Hexcel compounds adjusted EPS at a mid-teens rate, keeps the raised 2026 guidance on track, and the market normalizes the multiple toward the 25x to 30x area while the stock consolidates after the 52-week high.
$26 to $38
More likely if the aerospace cycle stalls, build rates slip, defense and space growth fades, oil and acrylonitrile costs compress margins, the company loses content on next-generation platforms, or the market compresses the multiple toward the mid-teens.
HXL AI technical analysis
HXL AI technical analysis is bullish on the multi-month timeframe but short-term corrective as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $102.95 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $97.62, $91.88, and $84.89, but below its 5-day and 20-day averages near $106.24 and $104.03 after hitting a 52-week high of $111.74 on July 24. Momentum is neutral with 14-day RSI near 50, and 14-day ADX near 26 still confirms a trending regime.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $102.95 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 75.43 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $106.24 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $106.24, above the July 31 close and confirming the short-term pullback from the July 24 high near $110.28. |
| 20-day moving average | $104.03 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $104.03, just above the close and acting as the first overhead supply zone. |
| Near support | $97 to $98 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 50-day moving average near $97.62 as of July 31, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $91 to $92 | The 100-day moving average was near $91.88 on July 31, 2026, forming the second support shelf below the 50-day. |
| Key support | $84 to $85 | The 200-day moving average was near $84.89, the last major trend support, and a close below it would break the multi-month uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $104 to $112 | The immediate upside is the 20-day average near $104.03, then the 52-week high of $111.74, with a closing high of $110.28 set July 24, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50, ADX near 26 | 14-day RSI was near 50.33 on both StockAnalysis.com and Barchart, neutral, while 14-day ADX near 26.06 still marked a trending regime with the negative directional index above the positive one on a short-term basis. |
| Volume | About 1.2 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.20 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.20 million on July 31, 2026, useful for checking the quality of any breakout toward the 52-week high. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 32.74% and a 14-day average true range near $3.80, so position sizing should account for larger daily swings around reports and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $97 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $97.62 would weaken the short-term uptrend; a close below the 200-day near $84.89 would turn the medium-term trend bearish. |
HXL AI trading strategy
The HXL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the aerospace composites cycle. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for HXL to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $104.03 and its 5-day average near $106.24, then to challenge the 52-week high of $111.74 with above-average volume, with the 200-day trend line near $84.89 still rising.
A daily close back below the 50-day moving average near $97.62, or a failed attempt at the 52-week high, should trigger a stop and review.
If HXL pulls back toward the $91 to $98 support cluster without new cycle damage, compare the price reaction with Q3 results, build-rate updates from Airbus and Boeing, and any 2027 guidance before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because valuation and aerospace cycle headlines can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track commercial build rates on the A350, 787, 737 MAX, and A320 family, defense and space program timing, adjusted operating margin progress toward 18%, free cash flow conversion, leverage toward the 1.5x to 2.0x target, oil and acrylonitrile input costs, foreign exchange, and long-term agreement renegotiations.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or one-time items rather than organic volume, operating leverage, and cash flow.
Investment research summary
Hexcel sells lightweight advanced composites that make aircraft lighter, stronger, and more fuel-efficient, and customers pay because certified materials are required on modern airframes and switching suppliers takes years of qualification.
The moat is certification and qualification cycles measured in years, long-term agreements with Airbus and Boeing, vertical integration from carbon fiber to composite structures, proprietary process technology, and a global manufacturing footprint.
The thesis fails if the aerospace cycle turns down or build rates stall, if the A350 or 737 ramps disappoint, if customer concentration with Airbus and Boeing becomes a negotiating problem, if oil and acrylonitrile cost inflation outruns pricing, or if the premium multiple compresses on any execution slip.
Tom Gentile, the former Spirit AeroSystems CEO, is running the aerospace recovery with visible results, and the new CFO, Jamie Coogan, has prioritized paying down debt, refinancing maturities, and returning leverage toward the 1.5x to 2.0x target.
Hexcel sits in a long-duration shift toward composite materials in aerospace, driven by fuel efficiency, lightweighting, a commercial aircraft backlog above 18,000 units, and growing defense and space demand, which management frames as about $500 million of incremental commercial sales at peak build rates plus about $200 million in defense and space before the end of the decade.
The stock no longer trades as a recovery play. At about 52x trailing earnings and near 39x forward earnings, margin of safety is thin, and the base scenario in this page prices the stock below the current level unless the multiple holds up.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HXL price | $102.95 at the July 31, 2026 close, $103.03 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.77 billion, computed as $102.95 x 75.43 million shares outstanding, matching the reported $7.77 billion | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 75.43 million shares outstanding, with 75,623,452 listed in SEC EDGAR XBRL as of July 27, 2026, and shares down 4.66% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $529.3 million sales up 8.0% (8.1% constant currency), GAAP diluted EPS $0.64 up from $0.17, adjusted diluted EPS $0.66 up 32% from $0.50 | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K) | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 margins | Gross margin of 26.1% versus 22.8%, adjusted operating income of $73.6 million or 13.9% of sales versus 11.1%, and GAAP operating income of $72.6 million up 142% | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 market detail | Commercial aerospace sales of $346.6 million up 18.3%, led by the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787, other commercial up 3.7% on regional jets, and defense, space and other of $182.7 million down 7.2% on the Austrian industrial divestment | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raise | Sales of $2.025 billion to $2.125 billion, raised from $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.30 to $2.40, raised from $2.10 to $2.30, free cash flow above $195 million, and capital spending under $100 million, both unchanged | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Sales of $1,030.8 million up 8.9%, adjusted EPS of $1.25 up 43.7%, adjusted operating income of $141.1 million or 13.7% of sales versus 10.5%, and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.13 up 117.3% | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $96.7 million versus a $5.2 million use a year ago, free cash flow of $51.8 million versus a $46.6 million use, and working capital a $72.2 million cash use | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Refinancing | $400 million of 4.9% unsecured senior notes due May 2031 issued in Q2 2026, with proceeds used to redeem $400 million of 3.95% notes due February 2027, leaving the earliest debt maturity in 2031 | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Leverage | Net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.3x at June 30, 2026, down from just under 2.7x at December 31, 2025, with a target of 1.5x to 2.0x during 2026 | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | First-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $216 million or 21% of sales, versus $173 million or 18.2% a year ago, and trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA of $390 million through June 30, 2026 | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Margin path | About $500 million of incremental annual commercial sales when OEMs reach peak build rates, about $200 million of incremental defense and space sales this decade, and a path to 18% adjusted operating margin and about 25% adjusted EBITDA margin before the end of the decade | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| A350 outlook | At least 80 A350 ship sets guided for 2026 with firm orders through the end of the year, Airbus producing 8 to 9 aircraft per month, and capacity that supported 13 per month in 2018 and 2019 | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Capital returns | No shares repurchased in Q2 2026 while paying down debt, remaining repurchase authorization of about $380.6 million as of June 30, 2026, and a quarterly dividend of $0.18 declared | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Capacity restart | Restarting a third idle carbon fiber line in Salt Lake City during 2026 instead of 2027 to prepare for the 2027 rate ramp, with about 300 of 400 planned new hires already made | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Segment margins | Composite Materials represented about 80% of Q2 sales with adjusted operating margin of 16.8% versus 14.1%, and Engineered Products about 20% of sales with adjusted operating margin of 15% versus 10.9% | Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.978 billion for the twelve months ending June 30, 2026, up 5.41%, cross-checked across Macrotrends and StockAnalysis.com | Macrotrends revenue and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | TTM net income of $153.5 million, up 74.4%, and TTM EPS of $1.98, cross-checked across Macrotrends and StockAnalysis.com | Macrotrends net income and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | FY2025 revenue of $1.894 billion, down 0.48%, net income of $109.4 million, and diluted EPS of $1.37, cross-checked across Macrotrends and StockAnalysis.com | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash of $62.2 million and total debt of $959.4 million as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, with no short-term debt | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Total assets and equity | Total assets of $2.731 billion, shareholders equity of $1.298 billion, and book value per share near $16.69 as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 51.98x trailing GAAP EPS, 3.93x sales, 30.38x free cash flow, 5.99x book value, 0.70% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 38.76x forward PE, PEG 1.34, EV/EBITDA 24.76, EV/FCF 33.89 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $104.00 across 16 analysts, low $88 and high $126, median $105 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell out of 16 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Jefferies $105 to $110 on August 2, RBC Capital $105 to $115 on July 31, Morgan Stanley $97 to $110 on July 31, UBS $113 to $126 on July 31, Wolfe Research downgraded to Peer Perform on valuation, and TD Cowen $85 to $100 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.20 million shares short, 5.57% of shares outstanding, 3.89 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $332.4 million, capital expenditures of $76.8 million, and free cash flow of $255.6 million over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share declared, $0.72 annualized with a 0.70% yield, ex-dividend date August 10, 2026, and 4 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Hexcel earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $2.08 billion with adjusted EPS $2.28, and FY2027 revenue estimate $2.33 billion with adjusted EPS $3.20 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $58.20 to $111.74, up 68.77% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.06, with a 2026 year-to-date gain near 39% | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $106.24, 20-day SMA near $104.03, 50-day SMA near $97.62, 100-day SMA near $91.88, 200-day SMA near $84.89, 14-day RSI near 50.33, 14-day ADX near 26.06, 14-day historical volatility near 32.74% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This HXL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, production rate changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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