Hub Group Inc. research snapshot
HUBG AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Hub Group as the second-largest intermodal marketing company in North America with the second-largest domestic container fleet of over 50,000 units, but the analysis is now dominated by accounting reliability rather than growth. Hub Group announced on February 5, 2026 that its first three quarters of 2025 results were materially misstated and would be restated, and on May 12, 2026 that its 2023 and 2024 annual reports were also materially misstated. The stock fell about 18% after the first announcement and about 13% after the second. The latest public close used here was $46.21 on August 3, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $2.83 billion and shares outstanding near 61 million. Trailing twelve-month revenue was about $3.73 billion with GAAP net income of about $105 million and TTM EPS of $1.74, but these figures come from periods that management has said should not be relied upon until restated. The price sits near the lower end of its recent $44.62 to $51.62 monthly range, below the 20-day moving average but above the rising 200-day average. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$46.21
Market cap
$2.83 billion verified market cap
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
The second-largest North American intermodal marketing company still owns a scaled container fleet and logistics network, but the stock trades near a 26x earnings multiple on financial results that are being restated, with a securities fraud class action pending and freight-cycle headwinds unresolved
Trend status
Price is above the rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages so the long-term trend stays up, but the short-term picture has weakened with price below the 20-day average, MACD below zero and declining, and a bearish double top after the pullback from the $51.62 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hub Group sells intermodal rail service, truck brokerage, dedicated truckload, warehousing, fulfillment, and final-mile delivery to North American shippers that need multi-mode freight options. The business has real scale, but quality assessment is clouded because its reported financials are being restated. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is scale in intermodal: the second-largest domestic container fleet with over 50,000 containers, deep Class I railroad relationships, and a national logistics network. A competitor can buy containers but matching the network, railroad contracts, and shipper trust takes capital and time. | Medium-High |
| Management | Management runs a founder-family business where the current CEO is the founder grandson, but the restatement disclosures and the securities fraud allegations around revenue recognition, cost accounting, and internal controls put the credibility of financial reporting squarely in question. | Low-Medium |
| Financial trend | The last reported quarter remains Q3 2025 (October 30, 2025): revenue ran from $905.65 million to $973.51 million per quarter with net income of $24 to $29 million per quarter. TTM figures of about $3.73 billion revenue, $105 million net income, and $1.74 EPS all come from periods being restated. | Low |
| Valuation | At $46.21, HUBG screens near 26.6x the reported TTM EPS of $1.74, about 1.66x book, 0.75x sales, and 8.84x operating cash flow, with a trailing dividend yield near 1.08%. The ratios look moderate, but they are computed on earnings that may be revised after restatement. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ChartMill showed price at $46.21 above the rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $45.55 and $41.83, but below the rising 20-day average at $48.12. RSI at 46 was neutral, MACD at -0.58 was below zero and declining, and a bearish double top formed after the $51.62 high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Restatement of 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025, a pending securities fraud class action with an August 28, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline, no new reported quarter since Q3 2025, freight-cycle and tariff headwinds, and the possibility of further downward revisions to earnings all weigh on the stock. | High |
| AI confidence | High on quote math, market-cap verification, technical snapshots, and the litigation timeline. Low on reported financials because they are under restatement, and low on any single future outcome given the open legal and accounting questions. | High on market data, Low on financials |
| Investment certainty | Low. Until the restatement is quantified and completed and the litigation outlook clears, the reported earnings, book value, and fair-value math all rest on figures management has said not to rely on. | Low |
HUBG AI stock forecast
The HUBG AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $46.21 cutoff price and the currently reported TTM EPS of $1.74. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $58.20, a base value near $35.10, and a bearish value near $17.90 using recovery growth and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises, and they inherit the risk that restatement changes the reported earnings base.
$52 to $62
More likely if the restatement produces a modest earnings reduction, import demand and intermodal volumes normalize after the 2025 pull-forward, tariffs stabilize, EPS compounds near 15% from the restated base, and investors apply a low-to-mid 20s multiple on recovered profits.
$32 to $40
More likely if restatement reduces reported earnings, intermodal volumes recover only gradually, tariff and import headwinds persist, EPS compounds near 8% from a lower restated base, and investors apply a mid-teens multiple consistent with a moderate cyclical recovery.
$15 to $22
More likely if the restatement reveals a larger earnings reduction, the class action produces material liability, railroad pricing power squeezes margins, EPS stays flat or declines, and the multiple contracts toward a low-teens level.
HUBG AI technical analysis
HUBG AI technical analysis uses ChartMill and Morningstar quote snapshots available during the August 4, 2026 research pass. Price closed at $46.21 on August 3, 2026, above the rising 50-day SMA at $45.55 and 200-day SMA at $41.83, but below the rising 20-day SMA at $48.12. RSI at 46 and MACD at -0.58 point to neutral-to-weak momentum, and a bearish double top formed after the recent high near $51.62.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.21 | Latest public close used for this page, dated August 3, 2026; the after-hours quote was $45.29. |
| Near support | $45.40 to $46.20 | ChartMill listed a support zone formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages in this band, just below the current price. |
| Mid support | $40.92 to $41.42 | A secondary support zone from trend lines sits near the 100-day and 200-day moving average area. |
| Major support | $41.83 | The rising 200-day simple moving average is the main longer-term trend reference and a key invalidation level. |
| Near resistance | $48.12 to $48.18 | The 20-day moving average and the 10-day average cluster near $48 and cap the short-term recovery. |
| Higher resistance | $51.23 to $51.64 | A weekly resistance zone marks the recent high area where a weekly double top formed. |
| Upper resistance | $52.53 to $52.54 | A daily resistance zone near the 52-week high area of $53.26 caps the upside unless sentiment changes. |
| 20-day moving average | $48.12 | Price is below the rising 20-day simple moving average, which keeps the short-term trend neutral. |
| 50-day moving average | $45.55 | Price is above the rising 50-day simple moving average, a constructive sign for the medium-term trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $41.83 | Price is above the rising 200-day simple moving average, so the long-term trend stays up as long as this holds. |
| Momentum | RSI 46, MACD -0.58 | RSI is neutral and MACD is below zero and declining, so near-term momentum favors caution. |
| Volume | About 713,000 shares on August 3, 2026 versus about 788,000 average | Google Finance and Morningstar both show sub-million average daily volume, adequate for most active strategies. |
| Volatility | ATR about 3.8% of price | ChartMill listed ATR near 3.8%, so stops and position size should allow for normal freight-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $41.83 | A decisive break below the rising 200-day moving average would weaken the long-term technical setup; a break below $40.92 would confirm it. |
HUBG AI trading strategy
The HUBG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live restatement and litigation updates, intermodal volume data, railroad pricing, tariff policy, free cash flow, moving averages, and predefined invalidation levels. Earnings and restatement disclosures can move the stock sharply, so position size should be smaller than normal and events should be watched closely.
Use a trend-following framework only if HUBG reclaims the 20-day moving average near $48.12 and then clears the $51.23 to $51.64 resistance zone with volume and improving intermodal data. The weekly trend is up, but the recent double top argues for waiting for a confirmed breakout.
A close back below the $45.40 to $46.20 support zone reduces confidence. A close below the 200-day SMA near $41.83 invalidates the longer-term setup.
If HUBG pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $45.55 or the 200-day moving average near $41.83 while restatement and litigation risk remains open, compare the entry against restated earnings math rather than the pre-restatement peak narrative.
Do not average down on news-driven gaps related to the restatement or class action. Use a hard stop below the $40.92 support zone because legal and accounting headlines can gap the stock.
Track restatement progress and quantification, class action developments and the August 28, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline, the next reported quarter, intermodal volume and pricing, operating ratio, free cash flow, net debt, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence when the price depends mainly on multiple expansion while reported GAAP earnings are still under restatement and segment-level visibility is low.
Investment research summary
Hub Group moves freight for North American shippers through intermodal rail service, truck brokerage, dedicated truckload, warehousing, fulfillment, and final-mile delivery. Customers pay for multi-mode capacity, geographic coverage, service reliability, and supply chain management, but the near-term commercial story is overshadowed by the restatement of its reported results.
The moat is primarily intermodal container fleet scale and railroad relationships rather than pure brand pricing power. A competitor can buy containers, but matching the second-largest domestic container fleet with over 50,000 units, deep Class I railroad contracts, and a national logistics network takes capital, time, and shipper trust.
The thesis fails if the restatement reveals a large earnings reduction, the securities fraud class action produces material liability or damages confidence, import demand stays soft under tariff pressure, railroad pricing power squeezes margins, or the delay in reported financials damages customer and investor trust.
Management runs a founder-family company with long tenure and has built a multi-segment platform through intermodal scale and tuck-in acquisitions. The current test is credibility: the company announced that its 2023 and 2024 annual reports and its first three quarters of 2025 results were materially misstated, disclosed a $77 million understatement of purchased transportation costs and accounts payable, and said it expects to conclude its internal control over financial reporting was not effective for 2023 and 2024.
Intermodal shipping enjoys long-term tailwinds from truck-to-rail conversion driven by driver shortages, fuel costs, and shipper sustainability goals. Near-term trends are muted: Morningstar's March 2026 report described intermodal trends as muted amid tough import pull-forward comparisons, and tariff-related headwinds for consumer goods spending can restrain retailer restocking.
At $46.21, HUBG trades near 26.6x the reported TTM EPS of $1.74, a multiple that only makes sense if earnings recover materially. Margin of safety is thin because the earnings base itself is under restatement, the legal overhang is unresolved, and no new reported quarter has appeared since Q3 2025.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.21 on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance and Morningstar HUBG quote snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.83 billion, verified as $46.21 x 61.15 million shares | Morningstar statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 61.15 million shares (Morningstar); 60.58 million (Google Finance) | Morningstar and Google Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $3.73 billion (Q4 2024 to Q3 2025), periods under restatement | Google Finance income statement quarterly data | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $105.0 million GAAP net income, periods under restatement | Google Finance income statement quarterly data | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.74 | Google Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 26.6x TTM EPS, 1.66x book, 0.75x sales, 8.84x cash flow, dividend yield about 1.08% | financial_rigor.py using Morningstar and Google Finance inputs | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst price targets | Average about $42, with a range from about $27 to $48 | Google Finance analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Quarterly revenue trend | Q4 2024: $973.5M, Q1 2025: $915.2M, Q2 2025: $905.7M, Q3 2025: $934.5M | Google Finance income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Quarterly net income trend | Q4 2024: $24.3M, Q1 2025: $26.9M, Q2 2025: $25.3M, Q3 2025: $28.6M | Google Finance income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Profitability ratios | ROA 3.98%, ROE 6.83%, ROIC 5.43% (normalized) | Morningstar key metrics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet strength | Quick ratio 1.36, current ratio 1.47, interest coverage 11.37x | Morningstar financial strength | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 46, SMA 20 $48.12, SMA 50 $45.55, SMA 200 $41.83, support $45.40 to $46.20, resistance $51.23 to $51.64 | ChartMill technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Restatement disclosure | February 5, 2026: first three quarters of 2025 materially misstated with a $77 million understatement of purchased transportation costs and accounts payable; stock fell about 18% to $41.96 | BFA Law class action notice via GlobeNewswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Second restatement disclosure | May 12, 2026: 2023 and 2024 annual reports materially misstated; stock fell about 13% to $36.62; no quantified amount yet | BFA Law class action notice via GlobeNewswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Class action | Lawler v. Hub Group, Inc., No. 1:26-cv-07596, Northern District of Illinois; lead plaintiff deadline August 28, 2026 | BFA Law class action notice via GlobeNewswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Business model and fleet | Second-largest intermodal marketing company in North America, second-largest domestic container fleet (50,000+ containers), about 60% revenue from intermodal and transportation solutions | Morningstar company profile and company filings | August 4, 2026 |
This HUBG AI stock analysis is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if restatement outcomes, securities litigation developments, financial results, intermodal volumes, tariff policy, railroad pricing, interest rates, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or company-specific risks change. Reported financial figures for 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025 are being restated and should not be relied upon.
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