Hub Group Inc. research snapshot
HUBG AI stock analysis currently reads Hub Group as the second-largest intermodal marketing company in North America, with the second-largest domestic container fleet of over 50,000 containers and growing logistics, truck brokerage, warehousing, and final-mile delivery segments that give shippers multi-mode capacity. At the July 13, 2026 data cutoff, the latest public close used here was $46.20 on July 10, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $2.83 billion and shares outstanding near 61 million. Trailing twelve-month revenue was about $3.73 billion with GAAP net income of about $105 million and TTM EPS of $1.74. The stock has rallied from the 52-week low near $32.46 but faces headwinds from import pull-forward comparisons, potential tariff impacts, and a securities class action lawsuit. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$46.20
Market cap
$2.83 billion verified market cap
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Second-largest North American intermodal marketing company with container fleet scale and logistics diversification, but tariff headwinds, import pull-forward comparisons, and a securities class action lawsuit cloud the near-term outlook
Trend status
Price is above the rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages with constructive long-term trend, while RSI near 60 and MACD declining suggest short-term consolidation after the rally from the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hub Group sells intermodal rail service, truck brokerage, dedicated truckload, warehousing, fulfillment, and final-mile delivery to North American shippers that need multi-mode freight options and supply chain management. | High |
| Moat | The moat is scale in intermodal: the second-largest domestic container fleet with over 50,000 containers, deep relationships with Class I railroads, a national logistics network, and multi-mode options that smaller competitors struggle to match. | Medium-High |
| Management | Management has expanded the logistics and brokerage segments through tuck-in acquisitions while maintaining the intermodal franchise. The current test is navigating tariff headwinds, import pull-forward comparisons, the securities class action, and margin recovery after a down cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $3.73 billion with TTM GAAP net income of about $105 million and TTM EPS of $1.74. Revenue ran at about $900-934 million per quarter in the latest four quarters, with net income ranging from $24-29 million per quarter. | Medium-High |
| Valuation | At $46.20, HUBG screens near 26.6x TTM EPS, about 1.66x book, 0.75x sales, and 8.81x operating cash flow, with a trailing dividend yield near 1.08%. The P/S and P/CF multiples look reasonable, but the P/E reflects a still-depressed earnings base. | High |
| Technical trend | ChartMill showed price above SMA 20 at $44.85, SMA 50 at $43.00, and SMA 200 at $40.70. RSI at 60.33 was neutral, MACD at 0.14 was positive but declining, and a support zone exists around $44.85 to $46.05. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because freight cycles, tariff policy changes, import demand swings, Class I railroad pricing, claims costs, integration risk from acquisitions, and the securities class action lawsuit can affect earnings and multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, quote math, and published technical snapshots. Lower for freight-cycle timing, tariff policy impact, class action outcome, and any single technical outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the intermodal franchise and container fleet are valuable but cyclical, and the current price already reflects a recovery that may take longer to materialize given tariff and legal headwinds. | Medium-Low |
HUBG AI stock forecast
The HUBG AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $46.20 cutoff price and TTM EPS of $1.74. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $58.20, a base value near $35.10, and a bearish value near $17.40 using recovery growth and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$52 to $65
More likely if import demand normalizes after the pull-forward cycle, tariffs stabilize, intermodal volumes and pricing improve, EPS compounds near 15% annually from the depressed base, and investors apply a mid-20s earnings multiple on recovered profits.
$32 to $38
More likely if intermodal volumes recover only gradually, tariff and import headwinds persist, EPS compounds near 8% from $1.74, and investors apply a mid-to-high teens multiple consistent with a moderate cyclical recovery.
$15 to $22
More likely if tariff-related demand destruction deepens, the class action results in material liability, railroad pricing power squeezes margins, EPS stays flat or declines, and the multiple contracts toward a low-teens level.
HUBG AI technical analysis
HUBG AI technical analysis uses ChartMill and Morningstar quote snapshots available during the July 13, 2026 research pass. Price closed at $46.20 on July 10, 2026, above the rising 20-day SMA at $44.85, 50-day SMA at $43.00, and 200-day SMA at $40.70. RSI at 60.33 and MACD at 0.14 point to neutral-to-positive momentum after a rally from $32.46.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.20 | Latest public close used for this page, dated July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $44.85 to $46.05 | ChartMill listed a support zone formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages in this band. |
| Major support | $40.70 | The 200-day simple moving average is the key longer-term trend reference after the 2025-2026 recovery. |
| Near resistance | $47.59 | A horizontal resistance line in the weekly time frame sits near $47.59. |
| Higher resistance | $53.26 | The 52-week high marks the upper resistance reference if intermodal sentiment strengthens. |
| 20-day moving average | $44.85 | ChartMill listed the 20-day simple moving average at $44.85, with price above this near-term average. |
| 50-day moving average | $43.00 | ChartMill listed the 50-day simple moving average at $43.00, with price above this rising average. |
| 200-day moving average | $40.70 | Price remains above the 200-day simple moving average, keeping the long-term trend constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.33, MACD 0.14 | RSI was neutral but leaned bullish. Daily MACD was slightly positive but declining, which fits a pause after the rally rather than a breakout. |
| Volume | About 463,000 shares on July 10, 2026 versus roughly 756,000 average | Morningstar and Google Finance both show sub-million average daily volume, adequate for most active strategies. |
| Volatility | ATR about 3.0% of price | ChartMill listed ATR near 3%, so stops and position size should allow for normal freight-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40.70 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average would weaken the long-term technical setup built during the recovery. |
HUBG AI trading strategy
The HUBG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live intermodal volume data, railroad pricing, import/export trends, tariff policy, claims costs, operating ratio, free cash flow, moving averages, and predefined invalidation levels.
Use a trend-following framework only if HUBG breaks above the $47.59 resistance, holds above SMA 50 near $43.00, and confirms strength with volume plus improving intermodal volume and pricing data.
A close back below the $44.85 to $46.05 support zone reduces confidence. A close below SMA 200 near $40.70 invalidates the longer-term trend setup.
If HUBG pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving averages while intermodal demand, railroad pricing, and free cash flow remain intact, compare the entry with EPS recovery math rather than peak-cycle narrative alone.
Do not average down if intermodal volumes, pricing, or operating ratio show structural deterioration rather than normal freight-cycle noise.
Track intermodal revenue and volume trends, logistics segment revenue, adjusted operating ratio, free cash flow, net debt, dividend coverage, class action developments, and competitor capacity and pricing moves.
Reduce confidence when price strength depends mainly on multiple expansion while GAAP profitability and segment margins remain under pressure from tariff and import headwinds.
Investment research summary
Hub Group moves freight for North American shippers through intermodal rail service, truck brokerage, dedicated truckload, warehousing, fulfillment, and final-mile delivery. Customers pay for multi-mode capacity, geographic coverage, service reliability, and supply chain management that smaller logistics providers cannot replicate at scale.
The moat is primarily intermodal container fleet scale and railroad relationships rather than pure brand pricing power. A competitor can buy containers, but matching the second-largest domestic container fleet with over 50,000 units, deep Class I railroad contracts, and a national logistics network takes capital, time, and shipper trust.
The thesis fails if import demand stays soft under tariff pressure, railroad pricing power squeezes intermodal margins, the securities class action produces material liability, logistics segment growth stalls, or investors stop paying a recovery multiple for still-depressed earnings.
Management has built a multi-segment platform through intermodal scale, logistics expansion, and tuck-in acquisitions. Capital allocation includes container investment, logistics technology, dividends, and share repurchases. The current CEO is the founder's grandson, which provides continuity but also key-person risk. The pending class action adds a legal overhang.
Intermodal shipping enjoys long-term secular tailwinds from truck-to-rail conversion driven by driver shortages, fuel costs, and shipper sustainability goals. However, the near-term outlook is clouded by tough import pull-forward comparisons in first-half 2026 and potential tariff-related headwinds for consumer goods spending that affect retailer restocking.
At $46.20, HUBG is priced more like a mid-cycle recovery story than a distressed intermodal operator. Margin of safety depends on sustained volume and pricing recovery, EPS expansion from $1.74, free cash flow durability, and whether the multiple can hold if tariff, class action, or margin headwinds persist.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.20 on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance and Morningstar HUBG quote snapshots | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.83 billion, verified as $46.20 x 61.15 million shares | Morningstar statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 61.15 million shares (Morningstar) | Morningstar and Google Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $3.73 billion (Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 trailing) | Google Finance income statement quarterly data | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $105.0 million GAAP net income | Google Finance income statement quarterly data | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.74 | Google Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 26.6x TTM EPS, 1.66x book, 0.75x sales, 8.81x cash flow, dividend yield about 1.08% | financial_rigor.py using Morningstar and Google Finance inputs | July 13, 2026 |
| Quarterly revenue trend | Q4 2024: $973.5M, Q1 2025: $915.2M, Q2 2025: $905.7M, Q3 2025: $934.5M | Google Finance income statement | July 13, 2026 |
| Quarterly net income trend | Q4 2024: $24.3M, Q1 2025: $26.9M, Q2 2025: $25.3M, Q3 2025: $28.6M | Google Finance income statement | July 13, 2026 |
| Profitability ratios | ROA 3.98%, ROE 6.83%, ROIC 5.43% (normalized) | Morningstar key metrics | July 13, 2026 |
| Balance sheet strength | Quick ratio 1.36, current ratio 1.47, interest coverage 11.37x | Morningstar financial strength | July 13, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 60.33, SMA 20 $44.85, SMA 50 $43.00, SMA 200 $40.70, support $44.85 to $46.05, resistance $47.59 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 13, 2026 |
| Business model and fleet | Second-largest intermodal marketing company in North America, second-largest domestic container fleet (50,000+ containers), about 60% revenue from intermodal and transportation solutions | Morningstar company profile and company filings | July 13, 2026 |
This HUBG AI stock analysis is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, intermodal volumes, tariff policy, railroad pricing, class action outcomes, interest rates, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or company-specific risks change.
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