Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. research snapshot
KNX AI stock analysis currently reads Knight-Swift as the largest full truckload operator in North America, with growing less-than-truckload, logistics, and intermodal segments that give shippers scale and multi-mode capacity. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest public close used here was $75.19 on July 10, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $12.22 billion. FY2025 GAAP earnings stayed depressed at about $65.9 million of net income on $7.47 billion of revenue, while adjusted EPS was $1.26 and free cash flow was about $763 million. The stock has re-rated sharply from the 52-week low near $38.63, so the KNX AI stock forecast uses recovery scenarios rather than a certain price target. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$75.19
Market cap
$12.22 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Largest North American full truckload platform with LTL expansion, but recovery optimism is already priced after a sharp re-rating
Trend status
Long-term trend is constructive above the 50-day and 200-day averages, while short-term momentum is neutral after a pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Knight-Swift sells truckload capacity, LTL network service, brokerage logistics, and intermodal moves to large shippers that need reliable North American freight coverage. | High |
| Moat | The moat is scale: one of the largest company tractor fleets, dedicated and irregular-route density, an expanding LTL terminal footprint, and multi-mode options that smaller carriers struggle to match. | Medium-High |
| Management | Management has expanded into LTL and integrated large truckload assets while returning cash through dividends. The current test is margin recovery, U.S. Xpress gap closure, and capital allocation after convertible-note activity. | Medium-High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $7.47 billion with GAAP net income of about $65.9 million and adjusted EPS of $1.26. Q1 2026 revenue rose 1.4% to $1.85 billion, but GAAP results swung to a $1.3 million loss after claims, weather, and fuel headwinds. | High |
| Valuation | At $75.19, KNX screens near 59.7x FY2025 adjusted EPS, about 1.7x book, about 1.6x sales, and roughly 16x FY2025 free cash flow per share, with a forward dividend yield near 1.1%. | High |
| Technical trend | ChartMill showed price above the rising 50-day and 200-day averages, RSI near 49, short-term neutral momentum, and a support zone around $72 to $74 after the pullback from $82.86. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because freight cycles, fuel spikes, claims development, industrial demand, and multiple compression can reverse the re-rating even if scale remains intact. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, quote math, and published technical snapshots. Lower for freight-cycle timing, peak-cycle EPS durability, and any single technical outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the business is scaled and useful to shippers, but the current price already embeds a strong recovery path versus still-depressed GAAP earnings. | Medium-Low |
KNX AI stock forecast
The KNX AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $75.19 cutoff price and FY2025 adjusted EPS of $1.26. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $86.40, a base value near $44.30, and a bearish value near $17.50 using recovery growth and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises, and the base case sits below the current price because the stock has already re-rated hard.
$80 to $95
More likely if truckload rates and bid awards keep tightening, LTL claims and weather noise fade, adjusted EPS compounds near 40% annually from the depressed base, operating ratios improve, and the market keeps a mid-20s earnings multiple on recovered profits.
$40 to $50
More likely if freight recovers only gradually, adjusted EPS compounds near the mid-20% range from $1.26, net debt stays manageable, and investors apply a mid-cycle trucking multiple near 18x rather than a full boom multiple.
$15 to $25
More likely if industrial demand stalls, fuel and claims costs re-expand, LTL margins stay weak, the 50-day and then 200-day averages fail, or valuation compresses toward a low-teens multiple on still-depressed earnings.
KNX AI technical analysis
KNX AI technical analysis uses ChartMill and public quote snapshots available during the July 12, 2026 research pass. Price closed at $75.19 on July 10, 2026, above the 50-day SMA near $72.72 and far above the 200-day SMA near $57.81, while the 20-day SMA near $76.58 and RSI near 49 pointed to short-term consolidation after a 52-week high near $82.86.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $75.19 | Latest public close used for this page, dated July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $71.90 to $74.15 | ChartMill listed a support zone formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages in this band. |
| Major support | $57.81 | The 200-day simple moving average is the key longer-term trend reference after the 2025-2026 re-rating. |
| Near resistance | $75.55 to $76.58 | A resistance zone sits just above the July 10 close around the 10-day and 20-day moving-average area. |
| Higher resistance | $82.86 | The 52-week high marks the upper resistance reference if freight sentiment strengthens again. |
| 50-day moving average | $72.72 | ChartMill listed the 50-day simple moving average at $72.72, with price still above that rising average. |
| 200-day moving average | $57.81 | Price remains well above the 200-day simple moving average, keeping the long-term trend constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI 49.33, MACD -0.47 | RSI was neutral. Daily MACD was slightly negative, which fits a short-term pause after a large advance rather than a clean breakout. |
| Volume | About 3.4 million shares on July 10, 2026 versus roughly 4.2 to 4.5 million average | Yahoo and ChartMill both show multi-million share average daily volume, so liquidity is adequate for most active strategies. |
| Volatility | ATR about 3.6% of price | ChartMill listed ATR near 3.57%, so stops and position size should allow for normal freight-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $57.81 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average would weaken the long-term technical setup built during the re-rating. |
KNX AI trading strategy
The KNX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live truckload tender data, revenue per loaded mile, LTL tonnage and claims trends, fuel costs, operating ratio, free cash flow, moving averages, and predefined invalidation levels.
Use a trend-following framework only if KNX reclaims the $75.55 to $76.58 resistance band, holds above the 50-day average near $72.72, and confirms strength with volume plus improving freight bid and rate data.
A close back below the $71.90 to $74.15 support zone reduces confidence. A close below the 200-day average near $57.81 invalidates the longer-term trend setup.
If KNX pulls back toward the 50-day or deeper long-term support while free cash flow, liquidity, and contract bid momentum remain intact, compare the entry with adjusted EPS recovery math rather than peak-cycle narrative alone.
Do not average down if loaded miles, revenue per mile, LTL claims, or operating ratio show structural deterioration rather than normal weather or fuel noise.
Track truckload revenue excluding fuel surcharge, revenue per loaded mile, LTL tonnage and revenue per hundredweight, adjusted operating ratio, free cash flow, net debt, dividend coverage, and competitor capacity exits.
Reduce confidence when price strength depends mainly on multiple expansion while GAAP profitability and segment margins remain weak.
Investment research summary
Knight-Swift moves freight for large North American shippers across truckload, LTL, logistics brokerage, and intermodal. Customers pay for capacity access, geographic coverage, service reliability, and the ability to shift modes when rates or service needs change.
The moat is primarily scale and network breadth rather than pure brand pricing power. A competitor can buy tractors, but matching fleet size, dedicated contract density, terminal expansion, multi-mode options, and shipper relationships takes capital and time.
The thesis fails if freight demand stays soft, capacity re-enters too fast, fuel and claims costs erase margin gains, LTL integration stalls, leverage rises after capital market activity, or investors stop paying a recovery multiple for still-depressed earnings.
Management has built a multi-brand platform through truckload scale, LTL expansion, and integration of acquired fleets such as U.S. Xpress. Capital allocation includes dividends, equipment replacement, terminal investment, and recent convertible-note financing. Continuity around the CEO team and founder-level leadership transitions remains a watch item.
Truckload and LTL freight sit inside the broader industrial and consumer goods economy. Near-term signals include tighter truckload bid activity and capacity attrition after a long downcycle, while the long-term industry remains cyclical, capital intensive, and exposed to fuel, labor, insurance, and regulation.
At $75.19, KNX is priced more like a mid-cycle recovery story than a deep-value trucker. Margin of safety depends on sustained rate recovery, adjusted EPS expansion from $1.26, free cash flow durability, and whether the multiple compresses as optimism cools.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $75.19 on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Morningstar KNX quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.22 billion, verified as $75.19 x 162.49 million shares | Morningstar statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 162.49 million shares | Morningstar and Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $7.47 billion | Knight-Swift 2025 Form 10-K summary coverage | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $65.9 million GAAP net income attributable to Knight-Swift | Company 10-K summary and Macrotrends net income series | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EPS and free cash flow | Adjusted EPS $1.26 and free cash flow about $763.2 million | Knight-Swift Q4 2025 earnings release and 10-K summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.850 billion | Knight-Swift Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | GAAP net loss $1.3 million, adjusted net income $14.3 million, adjusted EPS $0.09 | Knight-Swift Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and net debt | About $1.1 billion unrestricted cash and available liquidity, stockholders equity about $7.1 billion, net debt about $2.1 billion | Knight-Swift Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt (mrq snapshots) | Cash about $222.8 million and total debt about $2.66 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 59.7x FY2025 adjusted EPS, 1.73x book, 1.61x sales, 16.0x FY2025 FCF per share, dividend yield about 1.06% | financial_rigor.py using company and Yahoo or Morningstar inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 49.33, 50-day SMA $72.72, 200-day SMA $57.81, support $71.90 to $74.15, resistance $75.55 to $76.58 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Business model mix | Largest full truckload fleet in North America, with material LTL, logistics, and intermodal segments; about 37,100 employees | Morningstar company profile and company filings | July 12, 2026 |
This KNX AI stock analysis is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, freight demand, fuel costs, claims, interest rates, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or company-specific risks change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
