Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. research snapshot
KNX AI stock analysis currently reads Knight-Swift as the largest full truckload operator in North America, with growing less-than-truckload, logistics, and intermodal segments that give shippers scale and multi-mode capacity. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest public close used here was $69.53 on July 31, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $11.32 billion. FY2025 GAAP net income was about $65.9 million on $7.47 billion of revenue, while adjusted EPS was $1.26. The Q2 2026 report showed improving pricing and margins, with revenue up about 12.6% year over year to $2.096 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.63, up roughly 80% year over year. The stock still sits far below the 52-week high near $82.86, so the KNX AI stock forecast uses recovery scenarios rather than a certain price target. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$69.53
Market cap
$11.32 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Largest North American full truckload platform with growing LTL scale, now showing early freight-cycle recovery in pricing and margins, though the stock trades ahead of still-depressed GAAP earnings
Trend status
Long-term trend is constructive above the 200-day average, while short-term trend has turned down after a pullback from the 52-week high, with price below its 20-day and 50-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Knight-Swift sells truckload capacity, LTL network service, brokerage logistics, and intermodal moves to large shippers that need reliable North American freight coverage. | High |
| Moat | The moat is scale: one of the largest company tractor fleets, dedicated and irregular-route density, an expanding LTL terminal footprint, and multi-mode options that smaller carriers struggle to match. | Medium-High |
| Management | Management has expanded into LTL and integrated large truckload assets while returning cash through dividends. The current test is sustaining margin recovery, U.S. Xpress gap closure, and capital allocation after convertible-note activity. | Medium-High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $7.47 billion with GAAP net income of about $65.9 million and adjusted EPS of $1.26. Q2 2026 revenue rose about 12.6% to $2.096 billion, with adjusted EPS of $0.63 and operating margin near 5%, helped by truckload pricing gains. | High |
| Valuation | At $69.53, KNX screens near 257x trailing GAAP EPS, about 30x forward adjusted EPS on consensus, about 1.6x book, about 1.5x sales, and near 23x trailing free cash flow per share, with a forward dividend yield near 1.2%. | High |
| Technical trend | ChartMill showed price at $69.53 below the falling 20-day and 50-day averages, RSI near 37, short-term downtrend, long-term uptrend, and support around $69.52 plus $64.88 after the pullback from $82.86. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because freight cycles, fuel spikes, claims development, industrial demand, and multiple compression can reverse the re-rating even if scale remains intact. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, quote math, Q2 2026 results, consensus estimates, and published technical snapshots. Lower for freight-cycle timing, peak-cycle EPS durability, and any single technical outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because the business is scaled and useful to shippers and pricing is improving, but the current price already embeds a strong recovery path versus still-depressed GAAP earnings. | Medium |
KNX AI stock forecast
The KNX AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $69.53 cutoff price and consensus FY2026E adjusted EPS near $2.31. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $101, a base value near $60, and a bearish value near $23 using recovery growth and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises, and the base case sits near or below the current price because the stock has already re-rated hard.
$90 to $105
More likely if truckload and intermodal pricing keep tightening, bid awards and rates keep improving, adjusted EPS compounds near 30% annually from the $2.31 consensus base, operating ratios improve, and the market keeps a near-20x earnings multiple on recovered profits. Strong-buy analysts with targets near $98 to $100 sit in this zone.
$55 to $70
More likely if freight recovers only gradually, adjusted EPS compounds near 20% annually from the consensus base toward the $4 area by FY2027, net debt stays manageable, and investors apply a mid-cycle trucking multiple near 15x rather than a boom multiple.
$20 to $35
More likely if industrial demand stalls, fuel and claims costs re-expand, truckload pricing gains reverse, LTL margins stay weak, the 50-day and then 200-day averages fail, or valuation compresses toward a low-teens multiple on earnings that stay near the $2 range.
KNX AI technical analysis
KNX AI technical analysis uses ChartMill and public quote snapshots available during the August 3, 2026 research pass. Price closed at $69.53 on July 31, 2026, above the 200-day SMA near $60.22 but below the 20-day SMA near $73.91 and the 50-day SMA near $75.47, while RSI near 37 and stochastics near 18 pointed to a short-term downtrend and oversold conditions after the 52-week high near $82.86.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.53 | Latest public close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $69.52 | ChartMill listed a support zone at $69.52 formed by multiple trend lines in multiple time frames. |
| Secondary support | $64.88 to $62.16 | Trend-line supports from the daily and weekly time frames sit in this band. |
| Major support | $60.22 | The 200-day simple moving average is the key longer-term trend reference after the 2025-2026 re-rating. |
| Near resistance | $69.85 | A daily trend-line resistance sits just above the July 31 close. |
| Higher resistance | $73.91 to $78.18 | Two resistance zones formed by moving averages and trend lines span this band, capped by the 52-week high area near $82.86. |
| 20-day moving average | $73.91 | ChartMill listed the 20-day simple moving average at $73.91, with price below the falling average. |
| 50-day moving average | $75.47 | Price is below the rising 50-day average, which fits a short-term pullback inside a longer-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $60.22 | Price remains well above the 200-day simple moving average, keeping the long-term trend constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI 37.32, MACD -0.70 | RSI was near oversold. Daily MACD was negative, which fits a short-term pullback after a large advance rather than a clean breakout. |
| Volume | About 4.1 million shares on July 31, 2026 versus roughly 4.4 to 4.6 million average | Yahoo and ChartMill both show multi-million share average daily volume, so liquidity is adequate for most active strategies. |
| Volatility | ATR about 4.1% of price | ChartMill listed ATR near 4.14%, so stops and position size should allow for normal freight-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $60.22 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average would weaken the long-term technical setup built during the re-rating. |
KNX AI trading strategy
The KNX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live truckload tender data, revenue per loaded mile, LTL tonnage and claims trends, fuel costs, operating ratio, free cash flow, moving averages, and predefined invalidation levels.
Use a trend-following framework only if KNX reclaims the $69.85 resistance, then the $73.91 to $78.18 band, holds above the 50-day average near $75.47, and confirms strength with volume plus improving freight bid and rate data.
A close back below the $69.52 support zone reduces confidence. A close below the 200-day average near $60.22 invalidates the longer-term trend setup.
If KNX continues to fall toward the $64.88 to $62.16 supports while free cash flow, liquidity, and contract bid momentum remain intact, compare the entry with adjusted EPS recovery math rather than peak-cycle narrative alone. Oversold readings near 18 on stochastics make a bounce attempt plausible but not certain.
Do not average down if loaded miles, revenue per mile, LTL claims, or operating ratio show structural deterioration rather than normal weather or fuel noise.
Track truckload revenue excluding fuel surcharge, revenue per loaded mile, LTL tonnage and revenue per hundredweight, adjusted operating ratio, free cash flow, net debt, dividend coverage, and competitor capacity exits. Consensus FY2026E adjusted EPS of about $2.31 and FY2027E of about $4.00 are useful reference points.
Reduce confidence when price strength depends mainly on multiple expansion while GAAP profitability and segment margins remain weak.
Investment research summary
Knight-Swift moves freight for large North American shippers across truckload, LTL, logistics brokerage, and intermodal. Customers pay for capacity access, geographic coverage, service reliability, and the ability to shift modes when rates or service needs change.
The moat is primarily scale and network breadth rather than pure brand pricing power. A competitor can buy tractors, but matching fleet size, dedicated contract density, terminal expansion, multi-mode options, and shipper relationships takes capital and time.
The thesis fails if freight demand stays soft, capacity re-enters too fast, truckload pricing gains reverse, fuel and claims costs erase margin gains, LTL integration stalls, leverage rises after capital market activity, or investors stop paying a recovery multiple for still-depressed earnings.
Management has built a multi-brand platform through truckload scale, LTL expansion, and integration of acquired fleets such as U.S. Xpress. Capital allocation includes dividends, equipment replacement, terminal investment, and recent convertible-note financing. Founder Kevin Knight announced retirement in 2026, so continuity around the executive team and founder-level leadership transitions remains a watch item.
Truckload and LTL freight sit inside the broader industrial and consumer goods economy. Near-term signals point to a tightening market, with truckload pricing rebounding and capacity attrition after a long downcycle. The long-term industry remains cyclical, capital intensive, and exposed to fuel, labor, insurance, and regulation.
At $69.53, KNX is priced more like a mid-cycle recovery story than a deep-value trucker. Margin of safety depends on sustained rate recovery, adjusted EPS expansion toward consensus FY2026E of about $2.31, free cash flow durability, and whether the multiple compresses as optimism cools.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.53 on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis KNX quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.32 billion, verified as $69.53 x 162.76 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 162.76 million shares | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $7.47 billion, up about 0.8% year over year | Knight-Swift 2025 Form 10-K summary coverage and Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $65.9 million GAAP net income attributable to Knight-Swift, with GAAP EPS of $0.41 | Company 10-K summary and Macrotrends net income series | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EPS | Adjusted EPS of $1.26 | Knight-Swift Q4 2025 earnings release and consensus history | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $2.096 billion, up about 12.6% year over year | Knight-Swift Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | GAAP net income about $43.2 million, GAAP EPS $0.26, adjusted EPS $0.63, operating margin near 5% | Knight-Swift Q2 2026 earnings release, Zacks, and Stifel | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue about $7.73 billion, TTM GAAP net income about $42.9 million, TTM EPS $0.26, TTM free cash flow about $496 million | StockAnalysis financials and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt and leverage | Cash and investments about $260.8 million, total debt about $2.69 billion, net debt about $2.42 billion, total debt/equity about 38% | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | About $42.96 as of June 30, 2026 | Macrotrends book value per share series | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 257x trailing GAAP EPS, about 30x forward adjusted EPS, 1.62x book, about 1.5x sales, about 23x TTM free cash flow per share, dividend yield about 1.15% | financial_rigor.py using company, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy with average target about $88.63, range $57 to $100, from about 20 analysts; FY2026E adjusted EPS about $2.31 and FY2027E about $4.00 | StockAnalysis forecast page using S&P Global consensus | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 37.32, 20-day SMA $73.91, 50-day SMA $75.47, 200-day SMA $60.22, support $69.52 and $64.88, resistance $69.85 and $73.91 to $78.18 | ChartMill technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Business model mix | TTM segment revenue mix of about 65% truckload, 20% LTL, 7% logistics, 5% intermodal, and the remainder other services; about 37,100 employees | StockAnalysis segment financials and Morningstar company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This KNX AI stock analysis is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, freight demand, fuel costs, claims, interest rates, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or company-specific risks change.
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