HealthEquity, Inc. research snapshot
HQY AI stock analysis currently reads HealthEquity as a high-quality, technology-enabled HSA and consumer-directed benefits platform with recurring account economics, a large custodial asset base, and improving operating leverage. At the July 10, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $94.40 and the market capitalization was about $7.89 billion using 83.60 million shares. The core investment question is whether HSA account growth, higher member engagement, custodial assets, and technology efficiency can compound faster than the effects of lower interest rates, regulatory change, cyber risk, competition, and a valuation near 35 times trailing GAAP earnings. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$94.40 NASDAQ close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$7.89 billion based on $94.40 and 83.60 million shares outstanding
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Scaled HSA custodian with recurring account economics, strong cash generation, and meaningful rate, regulatory, and technology risk
Trend status
Constructive but extended, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive but not overbought momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HealthEquity administers HSAs and complementary consumer-directed benefits for employers, partners, and members. Service, custodial, and interchange revenue scale with accounts, HSA cash, investments, and payment activity. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from HSA scale, employer and benefits-partner distribution, more than 200 network integrations, bundled CDB products, proprietary technology, and switching friction around a regulated benefits workflow. Fidelity, Optum, banks, and benefits providers remain serious competitors. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Scott Cutler and the team raised fiscal 2027 guidance, repurchased $123.0 million of stock in Q1, authorized another $1.0 billion repurchase program, and paid down $15.0 million of debt in the quarter. The next test is whether buybacks and technology spending create more per-share value than acquisitions and stock compensation consume. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2022 to FY2026 revenue increased from $756.6 million to $1.313 billion, while GAAP net income moved from a $44.3 million loss to $215.2 million of profit. FY2026 free cash flow was $455.1 million, and Q1 FY2027 revenue and net income grew 7% and 29% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $94.40, tool-verified TTM valuation was about 35.36x GAAP EPS, 3.87x book value, 16.19x free cash flow per share, and 5.90x sales. The forward earnings multiple is lower, but the price still assumes continued execution and a durable HSA growth runway. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was above the published 50-day moving average of $86.52 and 200-day moving average of $88.12. RSI was 63.41, which supports positive momentum without being an overbought signal, while daily volume of 623,612 was below the 20-day average of 1,006,716. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because nearly all revenue depends on tax-advantaged healthcare accounts, custodial revenue depends partly on interest rates and partners, the platform handles sensitive financial and healthcare data, competition is strong, and debt includes a variable-rate revolving facility. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical financial and operating facts and medium for scenario ranges. The model cannot observe future tax policy, interest rates, partner behavior, security incidents, or changes in investor multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The business has visible account and asset drivers, but the current price requires sustained growth, healthy custodial economics, and successful technology execution. | Medium |
HQY AI stock forecast
The HQY AI stock forecast uses conditional ranges around the $94.40 July 10 close, not a guaranteed target. A three-year mechanical sensitivity using TTM GAAP EPS of $2.67, annual EPS growth of 16%, 10%, and 0%, and exit multiples of 30x, 24x, and 18x produced point outputs of $125.0, $85.3, and $48.1. These calculations exclude dividends because HealthEquity does not currently pay one and are not promises. The bullish case needs continued HSA asset growth, stable custodial yields, operating leverage, and productive buybacks. The bearish case needs lower rates, weaker account economics, regulatory pressure, a security event, or multiple compression.
$115 to $135 over a three-year scenario horizon
More likely if HSA assets and investment adoption continue to grow, revenue reaches or exceeds the $1.410 billion to $1.420 billion fiscal 2027 guide, adjusted EBITDA margin expands, technology modernization avoids disruption, and the market supports a premium earnings multiple.
$75 to $100 over a three-year scenario horizon
More likely if revenue grows near the current guide, GAAP earnings improve gradually, interest income normalizes without a sharp shock, buybacks offset dilution, and the valuation settles near the low-to-mid 20s on forward earnings.
$45 to $60 over a three-year scenario horizon
More likely if HSA tax benefits are weakened, custodial yields fall faster than account and asset growth can offset, a cyber or service event damages trust, integrations disappoint, or investors re-rate the stock toward a high-teens earnings multiple.
HQY AI technical analysis
HQY AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the latest published statistics available by the cutoff. Price was above the $86.52 50-day moving average and the $88.12 200-day moving average, while RSI at 63.41 indicated positive but not extreme momentum. Volume was 623,612 shares versus a 20-day average of 1,006,716, so a move through recent resistance should be confirmed rather than assumed. Technical levels are reference zones, not individualized trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.40 | Verified July 10, 2026 NASDAQ close from the daily price history. |
| Near support | $90.30 to $92.30 | The July 1 close and June 30 to July 2 trading area form the first reference support zone. |
| Long-term support | $86.00 to $88.12 | This zone combines the late May to mid-June trading area with the published 200-day moving average of $88.12. |
| Resistance | $95.15 to $98.34 | The July 10 high and July 7 high define the immediate breakout area. A sustained move above it needs stronger volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | SMA50 $86.52; SMA200 $88.12 | StockAnalysis statistics last updated July 9, 2026. Moving averages lag price and can change after the static page cutoff. |
| Momentum and volatility | RSI(14) 63.41; beta 0.21; 52-week range $72.76 to $105.96 | The readings suggest positive momentum and lower market beta, but a low beta does not remove company-specific risk. |
| Volume | 623,612 shares versus 1,006,716 20-day average | July 10 volume was below the published average, so the resistance test lacked broad participation in that session. |
| Invalidation framework | Sustained closes below $86.00 | A technical risk-control reference for this framework. It is not a personalized stop-loss instruction. |
HQY AI trading strategy
This HQY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not individualized advice. Because HQY combines a strong operating story with rate and valuation sensitivity, any plan should define the trend, entry trigger, position size, invalidation level, and fundamental data that would change the thesis before a trade is placed.
Consider only after a daily close above the $95.15 to $98.34 resistance zone with volume stronger than the recent average, while price remains above the 50-day and 200-day references.
Risk control: a failed breakout or close back below the $90.30 to $92.30 support area weakens the setup. Do not treat analyst targets or a high score as confirmation.
Watch a controlled pullback toward $88.00 to $92.00 only if the 200-day reference holds, HSA asset growth remains healthy, and the next filing does not show a sharp decline in custodial yield or account engagement.
Risk control: a sustained close below $86.00 invalidates the long-term support framework. Use a predefined risk budget rather than averaging down automatically.
Track HSA assets, HSA investment adoption, total accounts, custodial yield, service revenue per account, adjusted EBITDA margin, technology modernization, cash flow, debt, repurchases, and regulatory developments before treating the trend as durable.
Risk control: reduce conviction if lower rates compress custodial revenue, buybacks are funded with rising leverage, partner losses increase, or a security incident damages member trust. This framework does not set a personal allocation.
Investment research summary
HealthEquity is a financial and benefits infrastructure company for healthcare spending. Employers, benefits partners, and members pay for administration, payments, investing, and related consumer-directed benefits. Revenue comes from service fees, custodial income on HSA cash and client-held funds, and interchange. As of April 30, 2026, HealthEquity administered 10.6 million HSAs and 17.8 million total accounts, with $37.1 billion of HSA Assets.
The moat is the combination of scale, employer and broker distribution, more than 200 network integrations, bundled HSA and CDB products, proprietary technology, data, and compliance know-how. The company reported an HSA asset share of about 20% as of June 2025 and described itself as the largest HSA provider by account count. The moat is real but not absolute because Fidelity, Optum, banks, insurers, payroll providers, and benefits administrators can compete with more resources or existing relationships.
The thesis can fail if tax advantages for HSAs are reduced, lower rates compress custodial revenue, HSA cash or client-held funds are affected by a partner failure, cyber or fraud incidents damage trust, technology modernization disrupts service, or network partners shift to competitors. The key question is not whether account counts grow, but whether growth still creates attractive per-share cash earnings after service costs, technology spending, debt, stock compensation, and compliance costs.
Scott Cutler is President and CEO. The fiscal 2026 10-K shows a business that has used acquisitions to add HSA portfolios, while the Q1 FY2027 release shows a $123.0 million repurchase and a new $1.0 billion authorization. Management also paid down $15.0 million of long-term debt in Q1. The capital allocation test is whether repurchases at the prevailing valuation and continued technology investment produce more value than acquisition integration, dilution, and debt costs consume.
HealthEquity sits within the long-term shift toward consumer responsibility for healthcare costs, tax-advantaged saving, high-deductible health plans, and digital benefits administration. The 2025 federal tax law expanded HSA eligibility to some Bronze and Catastrophic plan users and broadened eligible services, which may expand the addressable market. The counterweight is policy uncertainty because substantially all revenue depends on healthcare tax and regulatory rules.
At $94.40, HQY traded around 35.36 times TTM GAAP EPS and 16.19 times TTM free cash flow per share using the tool-verified inputs. The lower forward multiple reflects the company guidance for fiscal 2027 GAAP EPS of $2.88 to $2.95 and non-GAAP EPS of $4.66 to $4.73, but non-GAAP adjustments include material amortization and stock compensation. Margin of safety improves only if GAAP earnings, cash flow, asset growth, and balance-sheet discipline continue to compound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HQY closing price | $94.40 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical price data, S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7.89 billion calculated from $94.40 x 83.602157 million shares, within 0.04% of the $7.895 billion reported input | Pineify financial_rigor.py and HealthEquity Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 83,602,157 shares as of May 20, 2026 | HealthEquity Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $1.313 billion, including $485.0 million service, $636.8 million custodial, and $191.6 million interchange revenue | HealthEquity FY2026 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis and Fiscal.ai | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and free cash flow | $215.2 million GAAP net income and $455.1 million free cash flow | HealthEquity FY2026 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 operating results | $354.6 million revenue, $69.4 million net income, $164.5 million adjusted EBITDA, and 20% net income margin | HealthEquity Q1 FY2027 results release | May 28, 2026 |
| FY2027 company guidance | $1.410 billion to $1.420 billion revenue, $2.88 to $2.95 GAAP EPS, and $625 million to $633 million adjusted EBITDA | HealthEquity Q1 FY2027 results release | May 28, 2026 |
| HSA asset and account metrics | $37.1 billion HSA Assets, 10.6 million HSAs, and 17.8 million Total Accounts as of April 30, 2026 | HealthEquity Q1 FY2027 results release | May 28, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $265.4 million cash and $942.7 million long-term debt net of issuance costs on the April 30, 2026 balance sheet; StockAnalysis reports $984.7 million total debt on its latest basis | HealthEquity Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical reference data | SMA50 $86.52, SMA200 $88.12, RSI 63.41, 20-day average volume 1,006,716 shares, beta 0.21 | StockAnalysis statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 9, 2026 |
| Competition and market position | HealthEquity reported about 20% HSA asset share as of June 2025 and identified Fidelity, Optum, Webster Bank, insurers, payroll providers, and benefits administrators as competitors | HealthEquity FY2026 Form 10-K | July 10, 2026 |
This HQY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and stated assumptions and may be wrong. Technical levels are dated reference points, not personalized instructions. Verify current prices, filings, tax rules, and company disclosures before making any financial decision.
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