Hamilton Lane Incorporated research snapshot
HLNE AI stock analysis currently reads Hamilton Lane Incorporated as a high-quality private markets investment management and advisory firm that crossed a $1 trillion total asset footprint in fiscal 2026, with $142 billion in assets under management and $82 billion in fee-earning assets under management as of March 31, 2026. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available Nasdaq close was $88.91 on July 31, market capitalization was about $4.96 billion, and the stock had rebounded roughly 24% from its 52-week low of $71.88 while still sitting about 45% below its 52-week high of $161.13. The stock trades at 15.0x trailing earnings with a 2.70% dividend yield and an AI score of 67/100, with price now above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average. Q1 fiscal 2027 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026. This page uses scenario analysis rather than a certain price prediction and is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$88.91
Market cap
About $4.96 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality private markets manager recovering from a deep correction with improving momentum and an earnings catalyst ahead
Trend status
Rebounding off the 52-week low, above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day, with Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings on August 4
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hamilton Lane is a high-margin, high-ROE private markets manager earning management and advisory fees plus carried interest across private equity, credit, real assets, and infrastructure. TTM revenue is $758.99M, TTM net income $249.18M, operating margin 42.81%, and ROE 32.44%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from 30+ years of GP relationships, institutional client trust, 22-office global distribution, the proprietary Cobalt data platform, and the complexity of switching private markets advisors. Fee compression and passive alternatives are slow erosive forces. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mario Giannini and Chairman Hartley Rogers have deep industry tenure and aligned incentives. Capital allocation has been disciplined, with an 11% dividend increase, share repurchases, and a $3.8 billion final close of the sixth direct equity fund. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue grew 6.5% to $758.99M, net income grew 14.6% to $249.18M, and EPS rose 9.4% to $5.92. Fee-earning AUM grew 13% year over year to $82B as of March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $88.91, financial_rigor.py verifies 15.02x TTM EPS, about 4.2x book value, 11.84x free cash flow, and a 2.70% dividend yield. The three-scenario model projects a base target of about $107. | Medium |
| Technical trend | HLNE has rebounded about 24% from its 52-week low of $71.88 and now trades above the 50-day moving average near $82.86 but below the 200-day moving average near $108.91, with RSI near 61.79. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Private markets activity can slow in downturns, carry income can vary, fee rates face secular pressure, and a roughly 785-employee firm managing about $1 trillion depends on key investment professionals. The August 4 earnings report is the near-term catalyst. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the financial data and technical snapshot are verifiable. Forward-return confidence is medium because the stock depends on private markets cycle timing, AUM growth pace, carry realizations, and the August 4 earnings outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business model is clear and durable, valuation is below historical multiples, and momentum has improved. Certainty remains medium because the recovery needs confirmation from AUM growth and the August 4 report to extend. | Medium |
HLNE AI stock forecast
The HLNE AI stock forecast should be read as a scenario range, not a point target. Using the July 31, 2026 price of $88.91, TTM diluted EPS of $5.92, and financial_rigor.py three-year assumptions of 14%, 9%, and 0% EPS growth with 16x, 14x, and 10x exit multiples, the tested outputs are about $59 bearish, $107 base, and $140 bullish. Consensus analysts still target about $126.86 with a Buy rating, but the earnings report on August 4, 2026 is the near-term catalyst.
$125 to $150
More likely if Q1 fiscal 2027 results on August 4, 2026 confirm AUM and fee-earning AUM momentum, private markets deployment accelerates, carried interest realizations stay healthy, the dividend keeps growing, and the market re-rates HLNE closer to its historical multiple of roughly 20x earnings.
$95 to $115
More likely if Hamilton Lane grows earnings at a steady high-single-digit to low-double-digit pace, AUM expands gradually, the dividend is maintained or raised modestly, and the multiple holds near the current 14x to 15x level while private markets sentiment improves slowly.
$52 to $68
More likely if private markets activity contracts, clients slow commitments or redeem, fee income declines, carried interest dries up, the August 4 earnings report disappoints, or a broader economic downturn pressures alternative asset valuations.
HLNE AI technical analysis
HLNE AI technical analysis turned constructive but incomplete as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The latest available quote was $88.91 on July 31. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $82.86, a 200-day moving average near $108.91, RSI near 61.79, and average 20-day volume near 695,683 shares. The stock has rebounded from a $71.88 52-week low and now trades above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average, with Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings scheduled for August 4, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.91 | Nasdaq close on July 31, 2026 used for the static page and market-cap verification around the August 3 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $82 to $84 | The 50-day moving average near $82.86 and the recent breakout zone. A close back below this area would signal the rebound is fading. |
| Deeper support | $76 to $78 | Planning zone between the breakout area and the 52-week low. This is a reference range, not a prediction. |
| 52-week low | $71.88 | The July 2026 52-week low. A sustained break below this level would mean the recovery framework is invalidated. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $100 | Psychological and prior supply zone above the current price. This is the first hurdle for the rebound to extend. |
| Major resistance | $108 to $112 | The 200-day moving average near $108.91 sits in this band and is the main overhead supply for the recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | About $82.86 | StockAnalysis reported price above this average, which has flipped from resistance into near-term support. |
| 200-day moving average | About $108.91 | StockAnalysis reported price below this longer-term average, keeping the broad trend under pressure until reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61.79 | Momentum has improved from oversold levels and is above 50 but below the overbought threshold of 70. |
| Volume | About 695,683 shares average | The August 4 earnings release is the key volume catalyst. Confirm any breakout or breakdown with volume expansion. |
| Volatility | Elevated with beta near 1.17 | The stock can gap around earnings, AUM updates, dividend announcements, and private markets news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average and near support would invalidate the rebound framework. |
HLNE AI trading strategy
The HLNE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for scenario planning and risk control, not personal advice. It connects price action with AUM trends, fee income, carry realizations, dividend policy, and the August 4, 2026 earnings catalyst.
Watch for HLNE to hold above the 50-day moving average near $82.86 and reclaim the $95 to $100 area with expanding volume after the August 4 earnings report. Pair the signal with quarterly AUM and fee-earning AUM growth, stable or improving management fees, and carried interest realizations.
Define risk before entry. A failed push at $95 to $100 or a close back below $82 can be used as a rules-based invalidation point.
Treat the August 4, 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 release as the timing trigger rather than pre-positioning. If results confirm AUM momentum and guidance supports mid-teens earnings growth, a post-earnings break above $95 to $100 on above-average volume supports continuation.
Do not chase the print blindly. If earnings disappoint and the stock breaks below $82, respect the invalidation and step aside.
Track quarterly AUM, fee-earning AUM, management fee margins, incentive and carry income, new fund closes, evergreen product flows, dividend and buyback activity, and analyst target revisions. HLNE operates on a March fiscal year, so compare results year over year rather than sequentially.
Refresh the forecast after each quarterly report and AUM update. A sustained AUM decline, a dividend cut, or a carry income collapse would change the valuation picture.
Investment research summary
Hamilton Lane sells access and expertise in private markets. Institutions and high-net-worth clients pay management and advisory fees plus carried interest for the firm to source, evaluate, monitor, and exit private equity, credit, real assets, and infrastructure investments on their behalf. Its total asset footprint reached $1 trillion in fiscal 2026.
The moat rests on three decades of GP relationships, institutional trust, 22-office global distribution, proprietary data and analytics in the Cobalt platform, and the operational complexity of replacing a private markets advisor. Fee compression and passive alternatives are gradual erosive forces.
The thesis fails if private markets enter a prolonged downturn that reduces deployment, fee income, and carry; if clients shift to passive or in-house alternatives; if key investment professionals depart; or if the August 4, 2026 earnings report resets expectations for AUM and fee-earning AUM growth.
CEO Mario Giannini and Chairman Hartley Rogers have deep industry tenure and meaningful ownership stakes. Capital allocation has been disciplined, with an 11% dividend increase, share repurchases, and a $3.8 billion final close of the sixth direct equity fund. Key-person dependence remains a factor.
Private markets enjoy a secular growth trend as institutions and high-net-worth investors keep raising allocations to alternatives, and democratization through RIAs and wealth platforms broadens demand. The cycle can still pause when liquidity tightens or public markets offer cheaper access.
At about $4.96 billion in verified market value and 15.0x trailing earnings, HLNE trades well below its historical multiple and below the roughly $127 consensus price target. Margin of safety depends on whether AUM growth, fee income, and carry can normalize without a fundamental deterioration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HLNE price | $88.91 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 31, 2026 close, checked August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.96 billion, verified from $88.91 x about 55.79 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM / FY2026) | $758.99 million, up 6.5% year over year | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM / FY2026) | $249.18 million, up 14.6% year over year | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $5.92 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Assets under management | $1 trillion total asset footprint; AUM $142B and fee-earning AUM $82B as of March 31, 2026, up 3% and 13% | Hamilton Lane Q4 FY2026 earnings release (May 21, 2026) via StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $419.07 million, FCF per share $7.51 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $360.96 million | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 2.70% ($2.40 annual, about 8 years of growth) | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.02x EPS, about 4.2x book value, 11.84x FCF, 32.44% ROE | financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $126.86 from 7 analysts | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This HLNE AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, regulation, or market sentiment change. Hamilton Lane is scheduled to report Q1 fiscal 2027 results on August 4, 2026, which may move the stock materially.
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