The Carlyle Group Inc. research snapshot
CG AI stock analysis currently reads The Carlyle Group as a scaled alternative-asset manager whose recurring management fees, growing fee-earning AUM, Carlyle AlpInvest franchise, and available capital can support earnings over a cycle. Q1 2026 fee-related earnings were $300 million and total AUM was $475 billion, but GAAP common-stock loss was $132.2 million as unrealized performance allocations reversed. At the July 10 close of $44.71, CG is not a simple buy signal because realization activity, fundraising, credit conditions, private-asset marks, compensation, and the earnings multiple can all change the outcome. This is informational analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$44.71
Market cap
$16.09 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Scaled alternative-asset manager with fee-bearing growth, realization sensitivity, and valuation risk
Trend status
Neutral momentum below the 50-day and 200-day moving-average references
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Carlyle earns management fees, performance-related revenue, and investment income across Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. The fee stream is more durable than realized performance income, but it still depends on fundraising and retained client capital. | High |
| Moat | Institutional relationships, investment teams, global distribution, a multi-decade track record, product breadth, and AlpInvest’s secondary and portfolio-finance capabilities create real switching friction. Alternative managers still compete intensely for capital and talent. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Harvey M. Schwartz is executing a plan centered on inflows, fee-related earnings, realizations, and wealth and institutional distribution. The relevant test is disciplined growth without diluting economics through compensation or balance-sheet risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 fee-related earnings were $300 million and distributable earnings were $327 million, while total AUM reached $475 billion and fee-earning AUM reached $333 billion. GAAP common-stock results were volatile, with a $132.2 million Q1 loss after performance-allocation reversals. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.71, CG had a $16.09 billion market cap from price times 359.97 million shares. The snapshot showed about 30.2x trailing GAAP EPS, 3.0x book, and a 3.13% indicated dividend yield, so the valuation depends on future earnings normalization. | High |
| Technical trend | The $44.71 July 10 close was below the reported 50-day average of $45.85 and 200-day average of $53.39. RSI near 49.87 is neutral, so the chart has not confirmed a durable recovery. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because realization timing, private-market marks, fundraising, fee pressure, compensation, interest rates, credit losses, debt, and lower valuation multiples can all affect reported and distributable earnings. | High |
| AI confidence | Public reported data support a high confidence in the factual snapshot. Return confidence is lower because a material part of the economics depends on fund performance, valuation marks, exits, and investor appetite that are not directly predictable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The fee platform and AUM are tangible, but a margin of safety requires evidence that fee-related earnings can grow, realizations can normalize, and shareholder economics can improve without relying on favorable marks or a higher multiple. | Medium-low |
CG AI stock forecast
The CG AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price promise. A mechanical three-year model using $1.48 trailing GAAP EPS, 0% to 18% EPS growth, and 10x to 18x exit multiples produced about $14.80 to $43.80. That model is intentionally conservative because Carlyle reports both volatile GAAP earnings and non-GAAP distributable earnings. It highlights the current price dependence on a recovery in earnings quality and realized performance revenue rather than predicting a required price decline.
$52 to $65
More likely if fundraising and fee-earning AUM accelerate, Global Credit and AlpInvest retain momentum, realizations improve, fee-related earnings expand, repurchases remain disciplined, and the market values distributable earnings at a stronger multiple.
$38 to $52
More likely if management fees and fee-related earnings grow steadily, realizations recover unevenly, private-asset marks remain stable, and the shares trade around the current earnings and dividend framework.
$28 to $38
More likely if exits remain slow, private-asset valuations fall, fundraising weakens, fee pressure or compensation rises, credit conditions deteriorate, or investors assign a lower multiple to volatile GAAP and distributable earnings.
CG AI technical analysis
CG AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 10 close of $44.71, a 50-day moving average of $45.85, a 200-day moving average of $53.39, RSI of 49.87, average 20-day volume near 3.69 million shares, and a 52-week range of $39.60 to $69.85. These are reference levels, not predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.71 | StockAnalysis listed this July 10, 2026 closing price. |
| Immediate support | $43 to $44 | This band is a nearby reference area below the July 10 close and should be assessed with volume and broader market conditions. |
| Major support | $39.60 to $40.00 | This area aligns with the reported 52-week low and is a key downside reference. |
| Near resistance | $45.85 to $46.00 | This area aligns with the reported 50-day moving average. |
| Major resistance | $53.39 to $54.00 | This area aligns with the reported 200-day moving average. |
| Upper resistance | $69.85 | This was the reported 52-week high and a long-range reference. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $45.85; 200-day $53.39 | Price below both averages indicates that the longer trend needs confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI 49.87 | Momentum was neutral at the data cutoff rather than overbought or oversold. |
| Volume | 20-day average 3.69 million shares | Watch volume during earnings, fundraising updates, major realizations, and moves through moving-average resistance. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.83 | The reported beta indicates above-market historical sensitivity. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $39.60 | A break below the 52-week-low reference would weaken the setup and require a fresh review of earnings, credit, and realization assumptions. |
CG AI trading strategy
This CG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price behavior to fee-earning AUM, inflows, fee-related earnings, distributable earnings, realized performance revenue, accrued performance revenue, cash and debt, buybacks, and the macro backdrop for private-equity exits and credit.
Watch for CG to regain and hold the $45.85 to $46.00 area with volume, then assess whether fee-related earnings, inflows, and realization commentary support the move. A recovery through the 200-day reference near $53.39 would provide a stronger technical confirmation.
A failed move above the 50-day average followed by a sustained close below $43 should lower trend confidence. A break below $39.60 is a stronger invalidation signal.
If CG approaches $39.60 to $43, compare the price with fee-related earnings, distributable earnings, cash, debt, AUM flows, and realized performance revenue before treating a lower price as value.
Do not assume a falling alternative-manager share price is attractive if private marks weaken, exits slow, fee-earning AUM declines, compensation rises, or credit conditions deteriorate.
Track Q2 2026 results, total and fee-earning AUM, inflows, deployment, realizations, fee-related earnings, distributable earnings, net accrued performance revenues, balance-sheet cash and debt, dividend, and repurchase activity.
Position sizing should account for CG’s high historical beta and the possibility that market conditions change realized performance revenue and valuation before reported management fees respond.
Investment research summary
Clients pay Carlyle to source, underwrite, manage, and realize private investments across private equity, credit, and secondaries. The durable economic engine is management fees on fee-earning AUM, with additional but more variable performance and investment income.
Carlyle benefits from institutional relationships, investment talent, a global platform, product breadth, and operating history. Carlyle AlpInvest adds scale in secondaries and portfolio finance. The moat depends on ongoing investment performance and retention rather than exclusive control of the market.
The thesis fails if fundraising slows, exits remain constrained, portfolio marks fall, performance allocations reverse, credit losses rise, fee pressure or compensation absorbs economics, debt becomes restrictive, or investors stop assigning a premium to alternative-asset managers.
Harvey M. Schwartz leads the current plan. Management reported a path focused on inflows, fee-related earnings, realizations, and shareholder capital management. The key question is whether these goals translate into sustainable per-share distributable earnings rather than only higher AUM or adjusted measures.
Private credit, secondaries, wealth distribution, insurance-related capital, and institutional demand can expand the alternative-asset industry. The same industry is exposed to interest rates, liquidity, regulation, fundraising competition, and a delayed or weak exit market.
At the reference price, the market appears to value a recovery in distributable earnings and realizations. The mechanical trailing-GAAP model is below the reference price, so a margin of safety depends on verified fee earnings growth, realized rather than accrued performance revenue, and stable balance-sheet economics.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price, shares, and market cap | $44.71 close on July 10, 2026; 359.97 million shares; $16.09 billion market cap. Price times shares equals $16.09 billion with 0.03% variance. | StockAnalysis CG overview and statistics; Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and common-stock net income | $4.780 billion revenue and $808.7 million net income attributable to common stockholders. Company reporting and StockAnalysis agree on both figures. | Carlyle 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP results | $254.0 million total revenue and a $132.2 million net loss attributable to common stockholders, or $0.37 diluted loss per share. The loss included reversals of unrealized performance allocations. | Carlyle Q1 2026 results and Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 fee-related and distributable earnings | $300 million fee-related earnings and $327 million distributable earnings, or $0.89 after-tax distributable earnings per common share. | Carlyle Q1 2026 financial results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 AUM and activity | $475 billion total AUM, $333 billion fee-earning AUM, $13.0 billion quarterly inflows, $10.0 billion deployment, $12.2 billion realized proceeds, and $96 billion available capital. | Carlyle Q1 2026 financial results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Carlyle shareholder balance sheet | $1.673 billion cash and cash equivalents, $2.648 billion debt obligations, $2.588 billion net accrued performance revenues, and $3.247 billion investments attributable to Carlyle shareholders. Company-level balance-sheet figures exclude certain consolidated-fund amounts. | Carlyle Q1 2026 results and Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | The calculation gives 30.21x trailing PE using $1.48 EPS, 2.98x book using $15.02 book value per share, and a 3.13% indicated dividend yield. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day average of $45.85, a 200-day average of $53.39, RSI 49.87, and a 52-week range of $39.60 to $69.85. | StockAnalysis CG statistics; Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
This CG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of July 11, 2026 and may be wrong if fundraising, private-asset marks, realizations, performance allocations, credit conditions, earnings, balance-sheet economics, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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