Hess Midstream LP research snapshot
HESM AI stock analysis currently reads Hess Midstream LP as a focused, fee-based Bakken midstream operator with long-term Chevron contracts, minimum volume commitments, high cash margins, and a large distribution. At the July 10, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified Class A close was $38.62. The public Class A market cap was about $4.96 billion using 128.35 million Class A shares, while a broader share count including Class B economic interests implies about $7.96 billion of total equity value. The central question is whether stable gas volumes, tariff escalators, lower capital spending, and cash returns can offset Chevron concentration, Bakken production decisions, refinancing risk, and leverage. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$38.62 NYSE close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$4.96 billion Class A market cap; about $7.96 billion including all reported shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Fee-based midstream cash flow with strong contracts, high distribution yield, customer concentration, and material debt
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, above the long-term reference average but below recent resistance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hess Midstream gathers, processes, stores, terminals, and handles oil, natural gas, NGLs, and produced water in the Bakken and Three Forks. Long-term service agreements turn customer volumes into recurring fee revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a connected North Dakota asset network, permits, operating know-how, inflation-linked tariffs, minimum volume commitments, and switching friction for an integrated upstream customer. It is narrower than a diversified pipeline network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jonathan Stein and the team reduced planned 2026 capital spending, raised adjusted free cash flow guidance, completed $60 million of accretive repurchases, and continued distribution growth. Debt reduction remains an important capital-allocation test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2021 to FY2025 revenue rose from about $1.204 billion to $1.621 billion, while net income rose from $617.8 million to $684.6 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $390.1 million and adjusted free cash flow was $237.0 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $38.62, the tool-based check gave about 13.43x TTM EPS, 6.23x TTM free cash flow per Class A share, 3.04x TTM sales, and an 8.08% annualized distribution yield. The public and total-economic share-count definitions must not be mixed. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was above the July 6 50-day moving average reference of $37.82 and above the June 17 200-day reference of $36.50. RSI near 56 was constructive but not overbought, while recent volume did not confirm a decisive breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because Chevron and its affiliates represented about 97% of 2025 revenue, total debt was about $3.77 billion, and volumes depend on sponsor drilling, third-party activity, weather, commodity demand, and regulatory permissions. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence applies to the business map, filings, guidance, and market-cap calculation. Confidence in future price outcomes is lower because the security is sensitive to leverage, interest rates, volumes, and the required yield. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. HESM has visible contracts and cash generation, but a concentrated customer base and leveraged capital structure limit the margin of safety. | Medium |
HESM AI stock forecast
The HESM AI stock forecast uses conditional ranges around the $38.62 July 10 close, not a guaranteed price target. A three-year mechanical model using $2.875 TTM EPS, 10%, 5%, and negative 5% annual growth, and 16x, 13x, and 9x exit multiples produced about $61.20, $43.30, and $22.20. These are sensitivity outputs before distributions, not promises. The bullish case needs volume stability, lower capex, debt reduction, and a steady required yield. The bearish case needs weaker sponsor activity, refinancing pressure, or a higher income-security risk premium.
$52 to $63 before distributions
More likely if gas throughput grows, oil volumes stay near minimum commitments, tariff escalators hold, 2026 free cash flow reaches the upper guidance range, debt falls, and the market accepts a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$37 to $46 before distributions
More likely if Chevron maintains its planned activity, gas growth offsets flat oil volumes, capital spending stays near plan, distributions grow near 5%, and valuation remains close to the current income-oriented range.
$21 to $30 before distributions
More likely if Bakken production declines, Chevron volumes fall below expectations, interest costs rise, debt refinancing becomes harder, or investors demand a much higher yield for concentrated midstream exposure.
HESM AI technical analysis
HESM AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the latest indexed chart readings available before the cutoff. The price was above the $37.82 50-day moving average reference and the $36.50 200-day reference, with RSI at 56.22 on July 6. The chart was constructive but not a standalone signal. The 200-day figure is older than the close, so traders should confirm live data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.62 | Verified July 10, 2026 NYSE close from the historical price record. |
| Near support | $37.80 to $38.00 | The July 1 to July 6 trading area and the July 6 50-day moving average reference form the first support zone. |
| Long-term support | $36.50 | 200-day moving average reference from the June 17 indexed ChartExchange snapshot. A sustained close below it would weaken the current trend framework. |
| Resistance | $39.15 to $39.53 | The July 7 high and the May 5 high area. A breakout needs volume confirmation rather than a single intraday print. |
| Moving averages | SMA50 $37.82; SMA200 $36.50 | SMA50 from Investing.com on July 6; SMA200 from ChartExchange on June 17. Dates matter because this page is static. |
| Momentum and volatility | RSI(14) 56.22; ATR(14) $0.27 | Investing.com July 6 technical snapshot. Momentum was constructive and volatility was moderate in that snapshot. |
| Volume | 682,011 shares on July 10 | The close was accompanied by lower volume than the latest indexed 30-day average, so the resistance test lacked strong confirmation. |
| Invalidation framework | Daily closes below $36.50 | This is a technical risk-control rule for the framework, not a personalized stop-loss instruction. |
HESM AI trading strategy
This HESM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not individualized advice. Because the security combines income, leverage, and a concentrated sponsor relationship, a trader should define the trend, entry trigger, position size, invalidation, distribution dates, and debt or volume data to monitor before placing a trade.
Consider only after a daily close above the $39.15 to $39.53 resistance zone with volume stronger than the recent average, while price remains above the 50-day and 200-day references.
Risk control: a failed breakout or sustained close below the $37.80 support zone weakens the setup. Do not treat the distribution as protection against price loss.
Watch a controlled pullback toward $37.80 to $38.00 only if the price holds the long-term trend reference, operating guidance remains intact, and there is no new Chevron volume or debt headline.
Risk control: a close below $36.50 invalidates the long-term support thesis. Use a predefined risk budget rather than averaging down automatically.
Track the July 29, 2026 earnings date, quarterly distribution coverage, adjusted free cash flow, capex, total debt, minimum volume commitments, and Chevron drilling plans before treating the yield as a thesis.
Risk control: reduce conviction if cash flow after distributions weakens, leverage rises, or the sponsor customer changes nominations. This framework does not set a personal allocation.
Investment research summary
Hess Midstream owns and operates gathering, processing, storage, terminaling, export, and water assets that serve the Bakken and Three Forks. Customers pay for access and throughput, while Chevron contracts and minimum volume commitments provide a base level of demand. In 2025, gathering revenue was about $870.6 million, processing and storage was $620.0 million, and terminaling and export was $130.7 million.
The asset network, permits, interconnections, operating history, and long-term contracts are difficult to reproduce quickly. Tariffs are designed to escalate with inflation and Chevron agreements were extended through 2033 for several services. The moat is narrower than the headline yield suggests because 97% of 2025 revenue was tied to Chevron fee-based agreements.
The thesis can fail through sustained Bakken production decline, Chevron activity below nominations, lower third-party throughput, severe weather, processing or pipeline outages, environmental liabilities, permit changes, cyber incidents, refinancing stress, or a higher required yield. The key question is not whether the assets exist, but whether enough volume and cash flow remain after debt service and distributions.
Jonathan Stein leads a business that completed a $42 million Class A repurchase and an $18 million Class B unit repurchase in Q1 2026, lowered 2026 capex guidance to about $105 million, and raised adjusted free cash flow guidance to $910 million to $960 million. Capital allocation should be judged by per-share cash generation and leverage, not distribution growth alone.
US natural gas processing, oil logistics, produced-water handling, and export infrastructure remain important to North American energy supply. Hess Midstream guides to about 1.5% annual gas-throughput growth and flat oil throughput from 2026 through 2028, so the opportunity is steady infrastructure compounding rather than a high-growth technology transition. Technology and regulatory changes can still alter the value of the Bakken system.
At $38.62, the verified public Class A market cap is about $4.96 billion, while total economic equity value uses a larger share count. The tool calculation produced a 6.23x TTM P/FCF and 8.08% annualized distribution yield. That looks inexpensive on cash flow, but the margin of safety depends on debt reduction, stable volumes, distribution coverage, and the market yield applied to a concentrated midstream issuer.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest Class A close | $38.62 on July 10, 2026 | ChartExchange historical prices | July 10, 2026 |
| Class A shares used for public market cap | 128.350881 million | ChartExchange HESM overview | July 10, 2026 |
| Public Class A market cap | $4.96 billion; price times Class A shares, 0.02% calculation variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and ChartExchange | July 10, 2026 |
| Total reported shares and economic equity value | 206.18 million shares; about $7.96 billion at $38.62 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 6, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.621 billion, cross-validated at 0.00% variance | Hess Midstream 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $684.6 million, cross-validated at 0.00% variance | Hess Midstream 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and operating cash flow | $390.1 million revenue; $253.3 million operating cash flow | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 results | May 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow | $299.8 million EBITDA; $237.0 million adjusted free cash flow | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 results | May 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash and total debt | $1.9 million cash; $3.772 billion total debt | Hess Midstream 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | May 7, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | $650 million to $700 million net income; $910 million to $960 million adjusted free cash flow; $105 million capex | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 results | May 4, 2026 |
| Quarterly distribution and calculated yield | $0.7792 per Class A share; $3.12 annualized; 8.08% at $38.62 | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 results and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | SMA50 $37.82, RSI 56.22, ATR $0.27 on July 6; SMA200 $36.50 on June 17 | Investing.com and ChartExchange technical data | July 6, 2026 |
This HESM page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and selected assumptions. Financial data, technical levels, contract outcomes, and market prices can be wrong, stale, or revised. Verify current filings and live market data before making any decision.
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