Hess Midstream LP research snapshot
HESM AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Hess Midstream LP as a focused, fee-based Bakken midstream operator with long-term Chevron contracts, minimum volume commitments, high cash margins, and a large distribution. At the cutoff, the latest verified Class A close was $40.83 on July 31, 2026, after an after-hours print of $40.99. StockAnalysis reported a total market cap of $8.42 billion using 206.18 million total shares, while the price times 128.35 million Class A shares from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover gives about $5.24 billion of public Class A market cap. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 3, 2026 before the market open, so they were not yet available for this snapshot. The central question is whether stable gas volumes, the higher $0.7888 per share distribution, lower capital spending, and debt reduction can offset Chevron concentration, Bakken production decisions, and the fact that the average analyst price target of $37.33 now sits below the price. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$40.83 NYSE close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$8.42 billion total reported market cap; about $5.24 billion using Class A shares only
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Strong fee-based cash flow and distribution yield, but the stock trades above the average analyst target
Trend status
Constructive and above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the upper end of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hess Midstream gathers, processes, stores, terminals, and handles oil, natural gas, NGLs, and produced water in the Bakken and Three Forks. Long-term service agreements and minimum volume commitments turn customer volumes into recurring fee revenue, with roughly 85% of revenue fixed fee. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a connected North Dakota asset network, permits, operating know-how, inflation-linked tariffs, minimum volume commitments through 2028, and switching friction for an integrated upstream customer. It is narrower than a diversified pipeline network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jonathan Stein and CFO Mike Chadwick reduced 2026 capital spending guidance by roughly a third, raised adjusted free cash flow guidance to $910 million to $960 million, completed a $60 million accretive repurchase, and increased the quarterly distribution to $0.7888. Debt reduction and leverage near 3x remain important capital-allocation tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from about $1.204 billion in FY2021 to $1.621 billion in FY2025, and net income attributable to Hess Midstream LP rose from $46.4 million to $352.9 million. TTM revenue through Q1 2026 was about $1.629 billion with TTM net income attributable of $368.9 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $40.83, the tool-based check gave about 14.18x TTM EPS, 10.58x TTM free cash flow, 5.17x TTM sales, and a 7.63% dividend yield per StockAnalysis, with an EV to EBITDA ratio near 9.81. The public Class A and total economic share-count definitions must not be mixed. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $40.83 was above the 50-day moving average of $38.86 and the 200-day moving average of $36.83, with RSI near 61.74. Volume on July 31 was about 1.59 million shares versus a 20-day average near 822,000, so the move had above-average participation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because Chevron and its affiliates remain the dominant customer, total debt was about $3.77 billion, and volumes depend on sponsor drilling, third-party activity, weather, commodity demand, and regulatory permissions. Interest coverage near 4.5x limits but does not remove refinancing sensitivity. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence applies to the business map, filings, guidance, market-cap calculation, and published technical data. Confidence in future price outcomes is lower because the security is sensitive to leverage, interest rates, volumes, the required yield, and analyst sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. HESM has visible contracts, strong cash generation, and a growing distribution, but a concentrated customer base, leveraged capital structure, and a price above the average analyst target limit the margin of safety. | Medium |
HESM AI stock forecast
The HESM AI stock forecast uses conditional ranges around the $40.83 July 31 close, not a guaranteed price target. A three-year mechanical model using $2.88 TTM EPS, 10%, 5%, and negative 5% annual growth, and 16x, 13x, and 9x exit multiples produced about $61.30, $43.30, and $22.20 before distributions. These are sensitivity outputs, not promises. The bullish case needs volume stability, lower capex, debt reduction, and a steady required yield. The bearish case needs weaker sponsor activity, refinancing pressure, or a higher income-security risk premium. The average analyst target is $37.33 with a low of $32 and a high of $40.
$52 to $61 before distributions
More likely if gas throughput grows, oil volumes stay near minimum commitments, tariff escalators hold, 2026 adjusted free cash flow reaches the upper guidance range, debt falls toward 2.5x, and investors accept a mid-teens earnings multiple for a growing distribution.
$37 to $46 before distributions
More likely if Chevron maintains its planned activity, gas growth offsets flat oil volumes, capital spending stays near the reduced plan, distributions keep growing near 5% a year, and valuation stays close to the current income-oriented range.
$22 to $30 before distributions
More likely if Bakken production declines, Chevron volumes fall below minimum commitments, interest costs rise, debt refinancing becomes harder, or investors demand a much higher yield for concentrated midstream exposure and push the stock toward the $32 low target.
HESM AI technical analysis
HESM AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $40.83 and the StockAnalysis statistics snapshot updated August 2, 2026. The price was above the 50-day moving average of $38.86 and the 200-day moving average of $36.83, with RSI near 61.74 and a beta of 0.51. The chart is constructive but the stock sits in the upper part of its $31.63 to $44.14 52-week range, so the setup is more about breakout confirmation than a fresh base. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level and volume reading in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $40.83 | Verified July 31, 2026 NYSE close from the historical price record, with an after-hours print of $40.99. |
| Near support | $39.65 to $40.10 | The July 27 low of $39.67 and the July 31 session range form the first support zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $38.86 | From the StockAnalysis statistics snapshot updated August 2, 2026. A sustained close below it would weaken the short-term trend. |
| Long-term support | $36.83 | 200-day moving average from the same snapshot. A sustained close below it would challenge the current uptrend framework. |
| Resistance | $41.00 to $41.29 | The July 24 high of $41.29 and the July 31 high of $40.96 form the first overhead zone. A breakout needs volume confirmation. |
| Upper reference | $44.14 | The 52-week high is the broader upside reference, not a forecast that price must reach it. |
| Moving averages | SMA50 $38.86; SMA200 $36.83 | Both from the StockAnalysis statistics snapshot updated August 2, 2026. Dates matter because this page is static. |
| Momentum and volatility | RSI(14) 61.74; beta 0.51 | From the August 2, 2026 snapshot. Momentum was constructive but approaching overbought territory, while beta indicates below-market volatility. |
| Volume | 1,590,293 shares on July 31 | Above the 20-day average volume near 821,867 shares, so the recent move had above-average participation. |
| Invalidation framework | Daily closes below $38.86 | This is a technical risk-control rule for the framework, not a personalized stop-loss instruction. A close below the 200-day average of $36.83 would be a stronger warning. |
HESM AI trading strategy
This HESM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not individualized advice. Because the security combines income, leverage, a concentrated sponsor relationship, and a price above the average analyst target, a trader should define the trend, entry trigger, position size, invalidation, distribution dates, and debt or volume data to monitor before placing a trade.
Consider only after a daily close above the $41.00 to $41.29 resistance zone with volume above the recent average, while price remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Risk control: a failed breakout or sustained close below the $39.65 to $40.10 support zone weakens the setup. Do not treat the distribution as protection against price loss.
Watch a controlled pullback toward the $39.65 to $40.10 zone or the $38.86 moving average only if operating guidance remains intact, there is no new Chevron volume or debt headline, and the long-term trend reference holds.
Risk control: a close below $38.86 invalidates the short-term support thesis, and a close below $36.83 challenges the longer trend. Use a predefined risk budget rather than averaging down automatically.
Track the August 3, 2026 Q2 2026 results and conference call, quarterly distribution coverage, adjusted free cash flow, capex, total debt, minimum volume commitments, and Chevron drilling plans before treating the yield as a thesis.
Risk control: reduce conviction if cash flow after distributions weakens, leverage rises, the sponsor customer changes nominations, or the price moves well above analyst targets. This framework does not set a personal allocation.
Investment research summary
Hess Midstream owns and operates gathering, processing, storage, terminaling, export, and water assets that serve the Bakken and Three Forks. Customers pay for access and throughput, while Chevron contracts and minimum volume commitments provide a base level of demand through 2028. In FY2025, gathering revenue was about $870.6 million, processing and storage was $620.0 million, and terminaling and export was $130.7 million.
The asset network, permits, interconnections, operating history, and long-term contracts are difficult to reproduce quickly. Tariffs are designed to escalate with inflation, terminaling and water agreements are cost-of-service through 2033, and roughly 85% of revenue is fixed fee. The moat is narrower than the headline yield suggests because the sponsor-customer relationship still drives most volumes.
The thesis can fail through sustained Bakken production decline, Chevron activity below nominations, lower third-party throughput, severe weather, processing or pipeline outages, environmental liabilities, permit changes, cyber incidents, refinancing stress, or a higher required yield. The key question is not whether the assets exist, but whether enough volume and cash flow remain after debt service and distributions.
Jonathan Stein and Mike Chadwick reduced 2026 capex guidance to roughly $105 million, raised adjusted free cash flow guidance to $910 million to $960 million, guided to no material cash taxes until after 2028 under the corporate alternative minimum tax guidance, completed a $60 million accretive repurchase in March, and increased the quarterly distribution to $0.7888. Capital allocation should be judged by per-share cash generation and leverage near 3x, not distribution growth alone.
US natural gas processing, oil logistics, produced-water handling, and export infrastructure remain important to North American energy supply. Chevron targets about 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of Bakken plateau production, and Hess Midstream expects about 1.5% annual gas-throughput growth with flat oil throughput through 2028. The opportunity is steady infrastructure compounding rather than a high-growth technology transition.
At $40.83, StockAnalysis reports a total market cap of $8.42 billion, while the public Class A market cap is about $5.24 billion using the 128.35 million Class A shares from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover. The tool calculation produced a 14.18x TTM PE, 10.58x P/FCF, and a 7.63% dividend yield. Cash flow supports the security, but the stock now trades above the average analyst target of $37.33, so the margin of safety depends on debt reduction, stable volumes, distribution coverage, and the market yield applied to a concentrated midstream issuer.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest Class A close | $40.83 on July 31, 2026, with $40.99 in after hours | StockAnalysis historical prices | August 3, 2026 |
| Class A shares and public market cap | 128,350,881 Class A shares as of April 30, 2026; $40.83 x 128.35 million calculates to about $5.24 billion with 0.01% deviation | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Total reported market cap | $8.42 billion; $40.83 x 206.18 million total shares calculates to $8.42 billion with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.621 billion, cross-validated against the 2025 Form 10-K | Hess Midstream 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Hess Midstream LP | $352.9 million, distinct from the $684.6 million consolidated net income that includes noncontrolling interests | Hess Midstream 2025 Form 10-K XBRL and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $1.629 billion TTM revenue through Q1 2026; $368.9 million TTM net income attributable | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 Form 10-Q XBRL and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $390.1 million revenue; $157.7 million consolidated net income; about $300 million adjusted EBITDA; about $237 million adjusted free cash flow; $10 million capex | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 results and Q1 2026 earnings call | May 4, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $4.6 million cash and $3.772 billion total debt at March 31, 2026, per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | Net income of $650 million to $700 million; adjusted EBITDA of $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion; adjusted free cash flow of $910 million to $960 million; capex of about $105 million | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 results and earnings call | May 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance and results schedule | Net income of $150 million to $160 million and adjusted EBITDA of $295 million to $305 million expected for Q2; Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 3, 2026 before market open and not yet available at this cutoff | Hess Midstream Q1 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis earnings calendar | August 3, 2026 |
| Quarterly distribution and calculated yield | $0.7888 per Class A share for Q2 2026, up from $0.7792; $3.12 annualized per StockAnalysis for a 7.63% yield at $40.83 | Hess Midstream distribution announcement and StockAnalysis dividends | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | SMA50 $38.86, SMA200 $36.83, RSI 61.74, beta 0.51, 20-day average volume 821,867 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Sell from 7 analysts with an average target of $37.33, a low of $32, a median near $38, and a high of $40 | StockAnalysis forecast and S&P Global analyst data | August 3, 2026 |
This HESM page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and selected assumptions. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 3, 2026 and were not yet available for this snapshot. Financial data, technical levels, contract outcomes, and market prices can be wrong, stale, or revised. Verify current filings and live market data before making any decision.
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