Hayward Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
HAYW AI stock analysis currently reads Hayward Holdings as a well-known pool equipment supplier with a large installed base that drives recurring aftermarket demand for pumps, filters, heaters, cleaners, sanitizers, and automation systems. At the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, the latest regular-session quote was $15.92 on July 10 and market capitalization was about $3.45 billion. The stock has recovered from a 52-week low of $12.93 and trades at a forward PE of 18.9x, reflecting cautious market expectations for pool construction spending and housing turnover. Hayward reported Q1 2026 revenue of $255.2 million and net income of $29.8 million, with operating cash flow generation typical of the seasonal pool business. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$15.92 (July 10, 2026 close)
Market cap
$3.45 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Quality pool equipment franchise, cyclical housing exposure
Trend status
Recovered from 52-week low of $12.93, near the midpoint of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hayward makes pool pumps, filters, heaters, heat pumps, salt chlorine generators, cleaners, lighting, automation controls, and safety equipment. The recurring aftermarket replacement cycle is a structural advantage. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand recognition among pool owners and builders, distribution relationships with specialty distributors and retailers, and an installed base that drives parts and equipment replacement demand. | Medium |
| Management | Management has navigated the post-IPO transition, managed debt from the LBO structure, invested in new product development, and maintained distribution relationships. Capital allocation focus includes deleveraging and organic investment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of about $1.15 billion with net income of $160.6 million and a profit margin near 14%. Free cash flow generation has been modest at $31.8 million TTM, partly due to working capital needs in the seasonal pool business. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $15.92, HAYW trades at 21.8x TTM GAAP EPS, 18.9x forward earnings, 3.1x TTM revenue, and 2.1x book value. The EV/EBITDA ratio is approximately 13.4x. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price near the middle of the $12.93 to $17.73 range. The stock has recovered from 2025 lows but remains below the upper end of the range. Volume has been moderate. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include housing and pool construction cycles, distributor inventory adjustments, raw material costs, interest rate sensitivity, debt from the LBO capital structure, and competition from Pentair and Fluidra. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
HAYW AI stock forecast
The HAYW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $15.92 quote and TTM GAAP EPS of $0.73. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $11.60, a base area near $18.40, and a bullish area near $27.80 before dividends.
$25 to $30
More likely if new pool construction recovers, interest rates decline, replacement demand stays strong, Hayward gains market share with new products, and margins expand as revenue scales. A forward PE near 22x to 25x on growing earnings.
$17 to $20
If pool construction stabilizes at moderate levels, replacement demand provides a steady base, input costs are manageable, and Hayward executes on product and distribution. A forward PE near 18x to 20x on mid-single-digit earnings growth.
$10 to $13
More likely if housing and pool construction decline, distributors destock, raw material costs compress margins, and the market applies a lower multiple to cyclical earnings. A forward PE near 13x to 15x on flat to declining EPS.
HAYW AI technical analysis
HAYW technical analysis on a July 2026 timeframe shows the stock trading in a broad range between support near $13 and resistance near $17.70. Price has recovered from the 52-week low but momentum remains mixed.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Support (strong) | $12.90 to $13.50 | The 52-week low area. A break below this level would suggest a fresh downtrend and potential test of single-digit prices. |
| Resistance (near) | $16.50 to $17.00 | Near overhead supply from prior failed rallies. A close above this area would signal improving momentum. |
| Resistance (52-week high) | $17.73 | The 52-week high. A break above would open the path toward the $19 to $20 area. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $15.20, 200-day near $14.80 | Price near the 50-day average suggests neutral to slightly positive short-term momentum. |
| RSI (14-day) | Near 50 | Neutral momentum. Not overbought or oversold, suggesting room for movement in either direction. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 2.7 million shares | Typical liquidity for a mid-cap stock. Watch for volume spikes on breakouts or breakdowns. |
HAYW AI trading strategy
The HAYW AI trading strategy provides a framework for monitoring entries and exits. It uses trend following and mean reversion setups with clear risk controls. This is not personalized advice.
Look for a sustained close above $16.50 on above-average volume as a trend confirmation. Trail a stop below the 50-day moving average. The target area is the $17.70 to $19.00 zone.
If price falls back below $16.00 within five sessions, exit the trend position. Do not add to a losing position.
If price pulls back toward the $14.00 to $14.50 area (near the 200-day average) with declining volume, consider a mean-reversion entry with a target back to the $15.50 to $16.00 range.
Place a stop below $13.80. If the broader market or pool sector weakens, defer the mean-reversion trade.
Limit position size to a small percentage of total portfolio. Monitor quarterly earnings for pool construction trends, channel inventory, and margin guidance.
If Hayward reports a quarter with declining organic revenue or cuts guidance, exit all positions and re-evaluate on the next earnings call.
Investment research summary
Hayward sells equipment and automation for residential and commercial pools. Customers pay for reliable water circulation, cleaning, heating, sanitation, and convenience. The replacement cycle is driven by equipment aging rather than discretionary upgrades, which provides a base level of recurring demand.
Hayward has a recognized brand name among pool owners, builders, and service professionals. Distribution agreements with specialty distributors and retailers create barriers for new entrants. The installed base of pumps, filters, and heaters generates pull-through demand for replacement parts and upgrades. Scale in manufacturing and a broad product portfolio are moderate advantages.
The thesis fails if a sustained housing downturn reduces new pool construction to historically low levels, distributors destock aggressively, Hayward loses shelf space to Pentair or Fluidra, commodity costs outpace pricing power, or the debt structure limits financial flexibility in a downturn. The question is whether the installed base is large enough to carry earnings through a multi-year trough.
Hayward was taken public by CCMP Capital Advisors in 2021. Management has focused on new product development, digital automation platforms, and improving operational efficiency. Capital allocation priorities include debt reduction, organic investment, and selective M&A. Key-person risk is moderate given the corporate rather than founder-led structure.
The pool equipment industry benefits from long-term trends in outdoor living, home improvement, and aging pool infrastructure. New pool construction is cyclical and sensitive to interest rates and housing turnover. The replacement market (pumps, filters, heaters) tends to be more stable. Energy-efficient products (variable-speed pumps, heat pumps) are a growth driver.
At $15.92 with $0.73 in TTM EPS, the stock trades at 21.8x earnings and 3.1x sales. The three-year scenario range is $11.60 (bearish, 2% growth, 15x PE) to $27.80 (bullish, 15% growth, 25x PE). The base case of $18.40 (8% growth, 20x PE) implies about 15% upside. The margin of safety is limited at current prices unless one has conviction that pool construction will recover.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.92 | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.45 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.19 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 21.81x | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Forward PE | 18.94x | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $0.73 | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.15 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $160.6 million | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 13.98% | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $235.5 million | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Debt/Equity (mrq) | 62.84% | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $31.8 million | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Analyst target (mean) | $17.21 | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 217 million | Yahoo Finance / Market cap verification | July 10, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $12.93 to $17.73 | Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
This page provides AI-generated stock analysis for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any kind. All forecasts, technical levels, and trading frameworks are based on publicly available data as of the cutoff date and are subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You should consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
