Hayward Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
HAYW AI stock analysis reads Hayward Holdings as a pool equipment OEM whose earnings are anchored by the replacement needs of a large installed base of residential and commercial pools, not just by new pool construction. At the August 4, 2026 research cutoff, the latest close was $15.30 on August 3 and market capitalization was about $3.28 billion. Hayward reported a strong second quarter on July 29, 2026: net sales rose 6% to $318 million and adjusted EPS increased 8% to $0.26, both above consensus, and management confirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.84 to $0.87. Net leverage fell to 1.5x, the lowest since the 2021 IPO, the company refinanced term debt to 2033 at a lower spread, and it repurchased about $64 million of stock in the first half. The stock trades near a forward multiple of roughly 18x and remains below the 52-week high of $17.73. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$15.30 (August 3, 2026 close)
Market cap
$3.28 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Quality pool equipment franchise with resilient aftermarket demand and improving balance sheet
Trend status
Recovered from the mid-July selloff and holding above the 50-day average, still below the 52-week high of $17.73
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hayward sells pumps, filters, heaters, heat pumps, salt chlorine generators, cleaners, lighting, and connected automation for pools. The aftermarket replacement cycle of the installed base provides a recurring demand base, with about 90% of US-sold products made or assembled in domestic centers of excellence. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand recognition among pool builders and service professionals, distribution relationships, a connected OmniX platform, and short domestic lead times. Management reports new product vitality near 23% and continued share gains against Pentair. | Medium |
| Management | The team has delivered sales growth and margin protection through price realization, nearshoring, dual sourcing, and cost actions. It refinanced term debt to 2033 at a lower spread, cut net leverage to 1.5x, and accelerated buybacks, pointing to disciplined capital allocation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue near $1.17 billion with net income of about $161 million and a 13.8% profit margin. First half 2026 net sales rose 9%, adjusted EBITDA rose 9%, and adjusted EPS rose 18%. Gross margin of 48.7% in Q2 2026 was the second highest since the IPO. | High |
| Valuation | At $15.30, HAYW trades near 21x trailing EPS, about 18x forward adjusted earnings, 2.8x trailing revenue, and roughly 12x EV/EBITDA. The valuation is below its own recent history but not cheap for a cyclical stock. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price held above the 50-day average near $15.00 after the mid-July drop and closed at $15.30 on August 3. The stock remains within the $12.93 to $17.73 52-week range, below the late-June highs. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include housing and new pool construction cycles, channel inventory adjustments, commodity inflation and tariffs, geopolitical disruption in Europe and Rest of World, the LBO-era debt load, and competition from Pentair and Fluidra. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
HAYW AI stock forecast
The HAYW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $15.30 close and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.84 to $0.87. A three-year framework produced a bearish area near $11.50, a base area near $18.50, and a bullish area near $27.50 before any dividends.
$25 to $30
More likely if the aftermarket stays resilient, new pool construction starts to recover, Hayward keeps taking share from Pentair, margins hold near record levels, and Europe and Rest of World stabilize. A forward PE near 22x to 25x on growing earnings could support this range.
$18 to $20
If net sales keep growing around 5%, adjusted EPS reaches the $0.84 to $0.87 guidance this year and moves toward the roughly $0.97 consensus for 2027, and the multiple holds near 18x to 19x. This case implies modest upside from the current price.
$10 to $13
More likely if a housing downturn reduces new pool construction, distributors destock, competition forces price concessions, and inflation or tariffs compress margins. A forward PE near 13x to 15x on flat to declining EPS would put the stock in this area.
HAYW AI technical analysis
HAYW technical analysis on an August 2026 timeframe shows the stock in the lower half of its 52-week range after a sharp mid-July drop. Price has stabilized above the 50-day average near $15.00, but momentum is mixed and resistance overhead is close.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Support (near) | $14.00 to $14.40 | The May, June, and late-July area where buyers repeatedly stepped in. A close below this zone would point back toward the 52-week low. |
| Support (strong) | $12.93 | The 52-week low. A break below this level would signal a new downtrend and open the path to single-digit prices. |
| Resistance (near) | $15.90 to $16.40 | The mid-July breakdown zone where selling pressure appeared. A close above this area would be the first sign of a trend reversal. |
| Resistance (52-week high) | $17.73 | The 52-week high reached in the pool season ramp. A break above would open the path toward the $19 to $20 area. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $15.00, 200-day estimated near $14.90 to $15.10 | Price is holding just above the 50-day average after the July decline, a neutral to slightly positive short-term signal. The 200-day figure is an estimate from the trailing 12-month trading range. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI near 50, average volume near 2.9 million shares | Momentum recovered from the mid-July oversold reading to neutral. Volume spiked to 6.9 million on the July 29 earnings day and 7.3 million on the July 15 drop, so watch for volume on any breakout or breakdown. |
HAYW AI trading strategy
The HAYW AI trading strategy provides a framework for monitoring entries and exits using trend following and mean reversion setups with clear risk controls. This is not personalized advice.
Look for a sustained close above $16.40 on above-average volume as a trend confirmation. Trail a stop below the 50-day moving average near $15.00. The first target is the $17.70 to $19.00 zone.
If price falls back below $15.80 within five sessions, exit the trend position. Do not add to a losing position.
If price pulls back toward the $14.00 to $14.40 support zone with declining volume, consider a mean-reversion entry with a target back to the $15.50 to $16.00 range.
Place a stop below $13.80. If the broader market or the pool sector weakens, defer the mean-reversion trade.
Limit position size to a small percentage of total portfolio. Monitor quarterly earnings for new pool construction trends, channel inventory, gross margin, and net leverage.
If Hayward reports a quarter with declining organic revenue or cuts guidance, exit all positions and re-evaluate after the next earnings call. The next scheduled report is around October 27, 2026.
Investment research summary
Hayward sells equipment and automation for residential and commercial pools. Customers pay for reliable water circulation, cleaning, heating, sanitation, and convenience. Replacement demand from the aging installed base, rather than discretionary upgrades, provides a base level of recurring revenue that makes the model more defensive than pure new pool construction.
Hayward has a recognized brand among pool owners, builders, and service professionals. Distribution agreements with specialty distributors and retailers create barriers for new entrants. The installed base of pumps, filters, and heaters drives pull-through demand, and the connected OmniX platform adds switching costs. Management reports new product vitality near 23% and continued share gains against a struggling Pentair.
The thesis fails if a sustained housing downturn reduces new pool construction, distributors destock aggressively, Pentair or Fluidra responds with aggressive pricing, commodity and tariff costs outpace price increases, or geopolitical conflict keeps weighing on Europe and Rest of World. The question is whether the installed base is large enough to carry earnings through a multi-year industry trough.
Hayward was taken public by CCMP Capital Advisors in 2021 and is led by CEO Kevin Holleran, who joined in 2019. Management has prioritized pricing discipline, nearshoring and dual sourcing, product innovation, and debt reduction. In Q2 2026 it refinanced the Term Loan B to a 2033 maturity at a lower spread, cut net leverage to 1.5x, and accelerated share repurchases to about $64 million in the first half.
The pool equipment industry is mature and cyclical, tied to housing turnover and outdoor living spending. New pool construction is sensitive to interest rates, while the replacement market for pumps, filters, heaters, and energy-efficient products is more stable. Energy efficiency, connected automation, and water conservation are secular drivers. Hayward generated roughly $1.1 billion of revenue in 2025 with about 90% of US-sold products made or assembled domestically.
At $15.30 with trailing EPS near $0.72, the stock trades around 21x earnings, about 18x forward adjusted earnings, and roughly 12x EV/EBITDA. The three-year scenario range is $11.50 (bearish) to $27.50 (bullish), with a base case near $18.50 that implies about 20% upside. The margin of safety is limited at current prices unless one has conviction that new pool construction recovers and margins hold.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.30 | StockAnalysis.com historical data (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.28 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $3.77 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 21.0x to 21.3x | Yahoo Finance / StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward PE | About 18x on FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings release / Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM, GAAP) | $0.72 | Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.17 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $161.4 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Profit margin (TTM) | 13.8% | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales | $318 million, up 6% | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.26, up 8% | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $0.84 to $0.87 | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Total cash and short-term investments | $483 million | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Net leverage | 1.5x (lowest since the 2021 IPO) | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (first half 2026) | $154 million; FY2026 outlook near $200 million | Hayward Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and mean target | Buy rating, $17.79 mean target (range $15 to $19.50) | StockAnalysis.com / S&P Global | July 30, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $12.93 to $17.73 | Yahoo Finance / StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This page provides AI-generated stock analysis for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any kind. All forecasts, technical levels, and trading frameworks are based on publicly available data as of the cutoff date and are subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You should consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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