Pool Corporation research snapshot
POOL AI stock analysis currently reads Pool Corporation as a high-quality specialty distributor with a durable maintenance base, a dense sales-center network, and meaningful scale advantages, but also with exposure to housing, weather, discretionary pool construction, inventory, and debt. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, POOL closed at $210.44 with a market capitalization of about $7.67 billion. TTM earnings were about $10.92 per share, putting the stock near 19.27x TTM earnings. The central question is whether maintenance demand and a gradual discretionary recovery can restore earnings growth without excessive leverage. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$210.44
Market cap
$7.67 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality distributor, cyclical recovery required
Trend status
Short-term recovery above the 20-day and 50-day averages, below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Pool Corporation is the largest wholesale distributor of pool and outdoor-living products, serving roughly 125,000 wholesale customers through about 455 sales centers and more than 200,000 products. | High |
| Moat | Scale, local availability, vendor relationships, product breadth, service, and POOL360 create a useful distribution moat. It is stronger than a simple price advantage but weaker than a software network effect. | Medium-high |
| Management | The historical team built a strong operating network and returned capital consistently. John B. Watwood became CEO on May 4, 2026, so execution under the new leader is not yet proven. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was essentially flat and net income fell 6.4%, while Q1 2026 sales rose 6% and operating income rose 7%. Recovery is visible, but not yet a multi-year growth trend. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At 19.27x TTM earnings and 24.53x TTM free cash flow, the price is below its cycle peak valuation, but margin of safety depends on normalized earnings and balance-sheet discipline. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock was above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages but below its 200-day average. Momentum had improved, while volume remained below its recent average. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because demand is seasonal and housing-sensitive, inventory is elevated, debt increased to fund repurchases, and a CEO transition is underway. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for the reported business and financial facts, medium for technical levels, and lower for any three-year price scenario. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. A good distribution franchise does not remove the need to normalize earnings and test debt, margins, and management execution. | Medium-low |
POOL AI stock forecast
The POOL AI stock forecast uses three-year earnings and valuation scenarios rather than a guaranteed price target. The financial rigor model used $10.92 of current TTM EPS, 8% / 4% / negative 5% annual EPS growth, and 23x / 19x / 14x terminal earnings multiples. Its calculated three-year midpoints were about $316, $233, and $131. The wider ranges below reflect uncertainty around the pool construction cycle, maintenance demand, leverage, and the new CEO.
$285 to $345
More likely if maintenance demand stays resilient, discretionary construction and renovation recover, gross margin holds near the 2025 level, operating expenses gain leverage, and debt-funded repurchases do not impair flexibility.
$205 to $255
More likely if sales recover gradually, EPS grows near the low single digits, 2026 guidance is delivered, and investors keep valuing POOL near the current high-teens earnings multiple.
$120 to $155
More likely if housing and new-pool activity weaken again, inventory converts slowly, interest costs rise, margins compress, or the market values the company near a mid-teens multiple on lower normalized earnings.
POOL AI technical analysis
POOL AI technical analysis uses daily Yahoo Finance historical bars through the July 10, 2026 close. The stock was recovering above its short-term averages, but the 200-day average remained overhead. RSI and ATR are calculated snapshots, so traders should confirm live levels, volume, and earnings timing before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $210.44 | July 10, 2026 close. Market data is static on this page and is not fetched at request time. |
| Near support | $204 to $205 | Approximate 20-day simple moving average at the data cutoff. Holding this zone would preserve the short-term recovery structure. |
| Secondary support | $193 to $195 | Approximate 50-day simple moving average. A sustained close below this band would weaken the recovery setup. |
| Near resistance | $221 to $223 | Recent 20-session high area. A breakout would need stronger participation than the latest below-average volume snapshot. |
| 200-day moving average | About $233.68 | The longer-term trend reference and a potential resistance zone because price remained below it at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 about 61.4 | Positive but not extreme in the calculated daily snapshot. It does not establish a durable trend by itself. |
| Volume | 460,800 shares vs 1.16 million 20-day average | The July 10 volume snapshot was below the recent average, so a resistance break needs confirmation. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $7.22 | The simple daily ATR was about 3.4% of the cutoff price. This is a reference for risk sizing, not a forecast. |
| 52-week range | $172.68 to $345.00 | The stock remained well below its 52-week high and above its 52-week low at the cutoff. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $193, then $172.68 | A break below the 50-day area weakens the recovery thesis. A break below the 52-week low would reset the broader risk map. |
POOL AI trading strategy
The POOL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines business-cycle evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and explicit invalidation conditions.
Watch for a close above the $221 to $223 resistance area with volume above the recent average, then check whether the next earnings report supports the move with maintenance growth, improving discretionary demand, and stable gross margin.
A failed breakout or a close back below the $204 to $205 20-day area reduces confidence. A close below the 50-day area is a more serious invalidation.
If POOL pulls back toward the $193 to $205 support band without a change in guidance or credit conditions, compare price stabilization with inventory, debt, gross margin, and upcoming seasonal demand.
Do not average down only because the stock is below its prior high. Define a maximum loss, avoid concentrating in a cyclical name, and reassess the thesis if support fails.
Track the July 23, 2026 earnings report, 2026 EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17, maintenance versus discretionary sales, gross margin, inventory, debt, share repurchases, POOL360 adoption, and John Watwood’s first operating decisions.
Lower confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on buybacks while debt and inventory rise, or if the new leadership team cannot maintain service levels and operating discipline.
Investment research summary
Pool Corporation aggregates fragmented pool, irrigation, landscape, and outdoor-living supply demand, then sells availability, logistics, product breadth, and local service to trade professionals. The recurring maintenance and repair base is more durable than new construction, but the mix still moves with weather and housing activity.
The moat is built from 455 sales centers, inventory availability, 200,000-plus products, vendor relationships, customer service, local density, and the POOL360 digital ecosystem. Scale can improve purchasing and logistics, while the network makes it harder for a smaller distributor to match service breadth in every market.
The thesis can fail through a prolonged housing and pool-construction slowdown, lower discretionary spending, weather disruption, supplier pressure, excess inventory, margin compression, or a debt burden that makes buybacks look better than underlying cash generation. The most important bear question is whether recent earnings are below mid-cycle because of temporary demand or because the market changed.
The company has a long record of sales-center expansion, technology investment, dividends, and repurchases. However, Peter Arvan stepped down on May 4, 2026, and John B. Watwood became President and CEO after joining POOLCORP in January 2026. Succession depth and capital allocation under the new CEO require fresh evidence.
The installed base of pools supports maintenance, repair, replacement, and renovation demand, while population shifts toward warmer regions support long-term outdoor-living activity. New construction and discretionary remodeling are more rate-sensitive. The industry trend is favorable over a long horizon, but the earnings path remains cyclical.
At $210.44, the rigor check calculated 19.27x TTM earnings, 24.53x TTM free cash flow, 6.77x book value, and a 2.38% dividend yield. This is a more reasonable price than the 2021 to 2022 peak, but the margin of safety is not obvious while debt is about $1.25 billion in the latest 10-Q and normalized earnings remain uncertain.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| POOL price | $210.44 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot and Yahoo Finance daily history | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.67 billion, verified as $210.44 x 36,443,003 shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and SEC Q1 2026 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.289 billion, essentially flat year over year | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and Macrotrends | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $406.4 million net income and $10.85 diluted EPS | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and StockAnalysis | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $365.85 million operating cash flow and $309.52 million free cash flow | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 balance sheet | $104.96 million cash and about $1.20 billion reported debt; StockAnalysis standardized total debt was about $1.535 billion | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and StockAnalysis balance sheet; debt definitions differ | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.138 billion sales, 29.0% gross margin, $82.6 million operating income, and $1.45 diluted EPS | POOLCORP Q1 2026 earnings release and SEC 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and leverage | $64.46 million cash, $1.248 billion reported debt, and $25.74 million operating cash flow at March 31, 2026 | POOLCORP Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| 2026 earnings guidance | $10.87 to $11.17 diluted EPS including the Q1 ASU 2016-09 tax benefit | POOLCORP Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA $204.69, 50-day SMA $193.79, 200-day SMA $233.68, RSI 61.4, ATR 14 $7.22 | Yahoo Finance daily historical bars, calculated through July 10, 2026 | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 19.27x TTM PE, 24.53x TTM P/FCF, 6.77x PB, 4.08% FCF yield, and 2.38% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification using StockAnalysis TTM inputs | July 10, 2026 |
This POOL AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 10, 2026 and can be wrong. Confirm current data independently before making financial decisions.
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