Pool Corporation research snapshot
POOL AI stock analysis currently reads Pool Corporation as the world’s largest wholesale distributor of pool and outdoor-living products, with a durable maintenance base, a dense sales-center network, and scale advantages, but also with exposure to freight costs, customer mix, housing, weather, discretionary construction, inventory, and debt. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, POOL closed at $185.71 with a market capitalization of about $6.75 billion. Q2 2026 results, reported July 23, 2026, showed sales up 2%, gross margin down 30 basis points on freight and mix, and diluted EPS flat at $5.17, and the stock then fell below its key moving averages. TTM earnings were about $10.85 per share, putting the stock near 17.1x TTM earnings. The central question is whether freight costs and customer mix normalize, maintenance demand stays resilient, and the new CEO stabilizes execution without excessive leverage. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$185.71
Market cap
$6.75 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Quality franchise at a lower multiple, margin and execution unproven
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages after a post-earnings selloff, near the lower end of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Pool Corporation is the world’s largest wholesale distributor of pool and outdoor-living products, serving roughly 125,000 wholesale customers through about 455 sales centers and more than 200,000 products. | High |
| Moat | Scale, local availability, vendor relationships, product breadth, service, and POOL360 create a useful distribution moat. It is stronger than a simple price advantage but weaker than a software network effect, and Q2 2026 showed that freight and mix can still squeeze gross margin. | Medium-high |
| Management | John B. Watwood became President and CEO on May 4, 2026, after Peter D. Arvan stepped down. Q2 2026 included $8.3 million of CEO transition costs, so execution under the new leader is not yet proven. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 sales rose 2% with gross margin down 30 basis points, operating income down 2%, and diluted EPS flat, while H1 2026 adjusted EPS rose 5%. The trend is stable but not clearly growing. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At 17.1x TTM earnings and 22.4x TTM free cash flow with a 2.8% dividend yield, the price is well below its 2021 to 2024 valuation range, but margin of safety depends on margin recovery, normalized earnings, and balance-sheet discipline. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock trades below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, RSI is about 38.7, MACD is negative, and price sits near the lower end of the 52-week range after the post-earnings drop. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because freight and customer mix pressure margins, debt rose to fund buybacks, the CEO transition is recent, discretionary and new-pool demand are muted, and short interest is about 9.6% of shares outstanding. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for the reported business and financial facts, medium for technical levels, and lower for any three-year price scenario. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. A good distribution franchise does not remove the need to test margin recovery, freight costs, debt, and the new CEO before the lower multiple becomes a clear opportunity. | Medium-low |
POOL AI stock forecast
The POOL AI stock forecast uses three-year earnings and valuation scenarios rather than a guaranteed price target. The financial rigor model used $10.85 of current TTM EPS, 8% / 4% / negative 5% annual EPS growth, and 23x / 19x / 14x terminal earnings multiples. Its calculated three-year midpoints were about $314, $232, and $130. The wider ranges below reflect uncertainty around freight costs, gross margin, discretionary demand, leverage, and the new CEO.
$285 to $345
More likely if freight costs normalize, gross margin recovers toward 30%, maintenance demand stays resilient while building materials keep improving, and the new CEO executes without disruption, allowing investors to pay closer to historical multiples for recovered earnings.
$205 to $255
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 is delivered, sales grow in the low single digits, and investors keep valuing POOL near 17x to 19x normalized earnings.
$115 to $150
More likely if freight and mix pressure persists, discretionary and new-pool demand weakens again, interest costs rise, the CEO transition disrupts execution, or the market values the company at a low-teens multiple on lower normalized earnings.
POOL AI technical analysis
POOL AI technical analysis uses daily Yahoo Finance historical bars through the July 31, 2026 close. The stock is below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after the post-earnings selloff, with negative MACD momentum and an RSI near 38.7. RSI, ATR, and moving averages are calculated snapshots, so traders should confirm live levels, volume, and earnings timing before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $185.71 | July 31, 2026 close. Market data is static on this page and is not fetched at request time. |
| Near support | $179 to $181 | Approximate 20-day low near $178.52 and lower Bollinger band near $179.37 at the data cutoff. Holding this zone is the first defense against further downside. |
| Secondary support | $172.68 | The 52-week low. A sustained daily close below this level would reset the broader risk map. |
| Near resistance | $195 to $200 | The 50-day simple moving average near $195.77 and the 20-day moving average near $199.35. Reclaiming this cluster is the first step to repairing the chart. |
| Secondary resistance | $220 to $223 | The recent 20-day high near $220.51 and the 200-day moving average near $223.34, which the stock would need volume to clear. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 about 38.7, MACD negative | Momentum is weak in the calculated daily snapshot. RSI is below neutral and the MACD line is below its signal, so the setup does not favor chasing the bounce. |
| Volume | 1,006,400 shares vs 917,355 20-day average | The July 31 volume snapshot was slightly above the recent average, which is consistent with the post-earnings selling pressure. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $8.56 | The simple daily ATR was about 4.6% of the cutoff price. This is a reference for risk sizing, not a forecast. |
| 52-week range | $172.68 to $336.15 | The stock sat in the lower part of the range, roughly 8% of the way from the low to the high, at the cutoff. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $172.68, or reclaim of $195 to $200 | A close below the 52-week low would reset the risk map lower. A close back above the $195 to $200 cluster would be the first bullish repair signal. |
POOL AI trading strategy
The POOL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines business-cycle evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and explicit invalidation conditions.
Trend-following is not favored while price is below all key moving averages. A confirmed setup would require a daily close back above the $195 to $200 area with volume above the recent average, followed by evidence in the next earnings report that freight and mix headwinds are easing.
A failed reclaim or a close back below the $179 to $181 support reduces confidence. A close below the $172.68 52-week low is a serious invalidation for the broader chart.
If POOL holds the $179 to $181 support and stabilizes near the 52-week low, compare price stabilization with freight costs, gross margin, inventory, and debt. A rebound toward the $195 to $200 resistance cluster would be a reasonable target.
Do not average down only because the stock is near its low. Define a maximum loss, size the position for a cyclical with an ATR near 4.6% of price, and reassess the thesis if $172.68 breaks.
Track the next earnings report, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17, gross margin and freight commentary, maintenance versus discretionary sales, inventory, total debt near $1.3 billion, share repurchases, POOL360 adoption, and John Watwood’s first operating decisions.
Lower confidence if gross margin keeps falling, guidance is cut, debt-funded buybacks outpace operating cash flow, or the new leadership team cannot maintain service levels and operating discipline.
Investment research summary
Pool Corporation aggregates fragmented pool, irrigation, landscape, and outdoor-living supply demand, then sells availability, logistics, product breadth, and local service to trade professionals. The recurring maintenance and repair base is more durable than new construction, but the mix still moves with weather, freight costs, and housing activity.
The moat is built from about 455 sales centers, inventory availability, 200,000-plus products, vendor relationships, customer service, local density, and the POOL360 digital ecosystem. Scale can improve purchasing and logistics, while Q2 2026 showed that freight costs and customer mix can still squeeze gross margin even for the industry leader.
The thesis can fail through a prolonged housing and pool-construction slowdown, persistent freight cost pressure, lower discretionary spending, weather disruption, inventory missteps, a debt load that grows faster than cash generation, or execution lapses during the CEO transition. The most important bear question is whether the Q2 margin compression and soft discretionary demand are temporary or structural.
John B. Watwood became President and CEO on May 4, 2026, after Peter D. Arvan stepped down, and John E. Stokely became Executive Chair. Q2 2026 included $8.3 million of CEO transition costs. Capital allocation discipline, service levels, and margin execution under the new team still require fresh evidence.
The installed base of pools supports maintenance, repair, replacement, and renovation demand, while population shifts toward warmer regions support long-term outdoor-living activity. New construction and discretionary remodeling are more rate-sensitive. The industry trend is favorable over a long horizon, but the earnings path remains cyclical.
At $185.71, the rigor check calculated 17.1x TTM earnings, 22.4x TTM free cash flow, 5.4x book value, and a 2.8% dividend yield, with a $6.75 billion market cap. This is a lower multiple than the 2021 to 2024 range, but the margin of safety is not obvious while debt is about $1.3 billion in the latest quarter, freight and mix pressure margins, and normalized earnings remain uncertain.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| POOL price | $185.71 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot and Yahoo Finance daily history | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.75 billion, verified as $185.71 x 36.34M shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis share count | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.289 billion, down 0.4% year over year | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and StockAnalysis income statement | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $406.4 million net income and $10.85 diluted EPS | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and StockAnalysis income statement | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $365.85 million operating cash flow and $309.52 million free cash flow | POOLCORP 2025 annual results and StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | $1.823 billion sales, 29.7% gross margin, $267.7 million operating income, $5.17 diluted EPS, and $5.38 adjusted diluted EPS | POOLCORP Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 liquidity and leverage | $28.8 million cash, about $1.3 billion reported total debt, and $1.379 billion inventory at June 30, 2026 | POOLCORP Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 earnings guidance | $10.66 to $10.96 GAAP diluted EPS including $0.02 of ASU 2016-09 tax benefits and $0.21 of CEO transition costs; $10.87 to $11.17 adjusted diluted EPS | POOLCORP Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 14 analysts with a $220.36 average price target; post-earnings target cuts included BofA to $191, Deutsche Bank to $185, and Stifel to $189 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA $199.35, 50-day SMA $195.77, 200-day SMA $223.34, RSI 38.7, ATR 14 $8.56 | Yahoo Finance daily historical bars, calculated through July 31, 2026 | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.1x TTM PE, 22.4x TTM P/FCF, 5.4x PB, 4.5% FCF yield, and 2.8% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification using StockAnalysis TTM inputs | July 31, 2026 |
This POOL AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 31, 2026 and can be wrong. Confirm current data independently before making financial decisions.
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