Chart Industries, Inc. research snapshot
GTLS AI stock analysis currently reads more like a merger-arbitrage snapshot than a normal long-term industrial stock forecast. Chart Industries designs engineered equipment and services for gas and liquid molecule handling, but its share price is anchored near Baker Hughes' agreed $210 cash consideration. The latest quoted close was $209.60 on July 9, 2026, against a mechanically checked market capitalization of about $10.03 billion using 47.869 million shares. The main upside is limited if the transaction closes, while the main downside is a sharp standalone repricing if regulatory or closing conditions fail. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$209.60 (July 9, 2026 close)
Market cap
$10.03 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Merger-arbitrage priced near the $210 cash offer
Trend status
Event-driven: above the 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Chart sells engineered tanks, heat-transfer systems, specialty equipment, and repair, service, and leasing solutions used across LNG, industrial gases, hydrogen, carbon capture, water, power, and other process markets. | High |
| Moat | Custom engineering, process know-how, customer qualification, installed equipment, lifecycle service, and a global manufacturing and service footprint create switching friction. The moat is technical and relationship-based, not a consumer network effect. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has executed major portfolio transactions, including the Howden integration and the proposed Baker Hughes sale, while FY2025 debt declined modestly. A 2026 leadership transition and merger execution remain important tests. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $1.32 billion in 2021 to $4.26 billion in 2025, but Q1 2026 sales fell 11.7% year over year to $884.8 million and net income attributable to Chart turned into a $17.1 million loss. | High |
| Valuation | At $209.60, the stock trades close to the $210 cash offer. TTM GAAP EPS is negative and TTM free cash flow per share is only about $0.21, so ordinary trailing PE and P/FCF are not reliable standalone valuation anchors. | High data confidence |
| Technical trend | The latest snapshot places GTLS above the 50-day moving average of $207.82 and the 200-day moving average of $205.61, with RSI at 64.42. The $210 merger consideration is a stronger ceiling than a normal chart resistance level. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The primary risk is a delayed or failed Baker Hughes closing. Operating risks include $3.79 billion of long-term debt, tariff and mix pressure, working-capital swings, customer concentration, project execution, and cyclical end-market demand. | High |
| AI confidence | The evidence base is strong for historical results and deal terms. A model cannot reliably assign a closing date or price the immediate market reaction to a failed transaction. | High on facts, medium on scenarios |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low because the event outcome is clearer than the standalone margin of safety. The current quote offers little room for error if the cash consideration is not delivered. | Medium-low |
GTLS AI stock forecast
The GTLS AI stock forecast is event-driven. Baker Hughes agreed to pay $210 in cash per common share, Chart shareholders approved the transaction, and the European Commission conditionally approved it on July 10, 2026. The merger still requires customary closing conditions. A separate three-year calculation using FY2025 adjusted EPS of $9.72 produced $323.40, $225.00, and $106.30 under illustrative standalone assumptions, but those outputs are not a prediction and do not override the current cash-offer anchor.
$209.50 to $210.00
More likely if the remaining regulatory and customary conditions are satisfied and the Baker Hughes merger closes near the expected July 2026 timetable. The cash consideration limits upside to roughly the remaining spread before time value and transaction costs.
$195 to $210
More likely if the merger remains legally intact but closing takes longer, the market demands a wider time and regulatory spread, or the next filing adds uncertainty without changing the $210 consideration.
$105 to $180
More likely if the transaction is terminated or materially impaired and investors revalue Chart on weak Q1 cash flow, debt, tariffs, lower volumes, and the gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings. The lower end is consistent with the illustrative three-year bearish calculation, not a guaranteed floor.
GTLS AI technical analysis
GTLS AI technical analysis uses the latest available quote and statistics around the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The merger consideration dominates normal chart behavior, so the levels below are planning references rather than independent price targets. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $209.60 | Latest quoted close shown by StockAnalysis for July 9, 2026. The price was within 0.40 dollars of the $210 merger consideration. |
| Near support | $207 to $208 | A planning zone around the reported 50-day moving average at $207.82. A move below it would widen the event spread but would not by itself prove the deal is broken. |
| Secondary support | $200 to $205 | A deeper risk zone around the 200-day moving average at $205.61 and the psychological $200 level. Deal status should be checked before interpreting this as a technical dip. |
| Resistance | $210.00 | The Baker Hughes cash consideration is the practical ceiling. A sustained print above it would require a changed transaction, a competing bid, or a revised term. |
| 50-day moving average | $207.82 | StockAnalysis statistic last checked in the July 2026 snapshot. Price was above this average. |
| 200-day moving average | $205.61 | StockAnalysis statistic last checked in the July 2026 snapshot. Price was also above this longer-term average. |
| Momentum | RSI 64.42 | Constructive but not above the common 70 overbought reference. Momentum signals are less useful when an announced cash deal caps the price. |
| Volume | 1.26 million average shares over 20 days | Use volume to confirm whether a spread move reflects ordinary trading or new merger information. Volume alone cannot resolve closing risk. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.53; 52-week change +27.78% | The historical beta suggests above-market volatility, while the current merger anchor can hide gap risk until a deal update arrives. |
| Invalidation | Close below $200 or a material deal-status change | Either signal requires a new review of regulatory approvals, merger terms, debt, cash flow, and standalone valuation before using a chart setup. |
GTLS AI trading strategy
The GTLS AI trading strategy is an event-aware framework, not personalized advice. Because the stock is close to a fixed cash offer, the relevant risk is not missing a normal breakout. It is accepting a small capped upside in exchange for exposure to a much larger gap if the transaction fails.
Treat price above the $207.82 50-day average and the $205.61 200-day average as a trend filter only. Do not treat a move toward $210 as an open-ended breakout because the cash consideration caps the ordinary upside.
Define the maximum acceptable loss before entry and invalidate the setup if the price loses the $200 area or if a filing changes the closing path.
If GTLS trades below $207 while the merger terms and regulatory status remain unchanged, compare the spread with time to closing, financing conditions, and the latest SEC filing rather than assuming a technical bargain.
Do not average down through a regulatory headline. A widening spread may be compensation for real deal risk, not temporary volatility.
Track European Commission remedies, other closing conditions, the expected closing date, $210 cash consideration, Q2 operating results, backlog conversion, gross margin, working capital, long-term debt, and adjusted free cash flow.
Reduce confidence if the transaction is delayed beyond the stated timetable, terms change, cash burn accelerates, or the standalone earnings quality weakens after one-time adjustments.
Investment research summary
Chart makes engineered equipment and provides lifecycle services for customers that handle gases and liquid molecules. Customers pay for design reliability, safety, certification, project execution, and service continuity in applications where an equipment failure can disrupt an industrial process. The Duan Yongping question is whether this remains a good business without the merger headline.
The moat is built from process engineering, product qualification, application knowledge, installed equipment, aftermarket relationships, and scale across 62 manufacturing locations and more than 50 service centers. Technical know-how and switching friction matter more than brand recognition or network effects. Buffett's question is whether that advantage will still matter ten years from now if project cycles, tariffs, or competitors change.
The thesis can fail through a terminated Baker Hughes merger, higher tariffs, lower volumes, unfavorable project mix, poor backlog conversion, cost overruns, working-capital absorption, customer concentration, debt refinancing pressure, or weak returns on clean-energy projects. A large backlog is not the same as realized cash flow. The Munger question is which failure path would make the current $210 anchor disappear first.
Chart has pursued acquisitions and strategic combinations while reducing debt modestly in FY2025. The proposed $210 Baker Hughes sale and the earlier terminated Flowserve transaction show active capital allocation, but transaction costs also drove a large gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings. Gerry Vinci became President in January 2026, making execution through the leadership transition part of the current assessment. The management question is whether the business can preserve its operating discipline if the deal does not close.
LNG, industrial gases, data-center cooling, hydrogen, carbon capture, nuclear, water treatment, and other process applications provide long-term demand opportunities. The trend is real but uneven. Project timing, customer capital spending, policy support, energy prices, tariffs, and technology adoption determine how much of the opportunity becomes revenue. Li Lu's question is whether Chart becomes a durable infrastructure supplier of this transition or a cyclical collection of project markets.
At $209.60, GTLS is priced primarily against the $210 cash consideration. The verified TTM GAAP EPS was negative $1.02, book value per share was $65.95, and TTM free cash flow per share was about $0.21. FY2025 adjusted EPS was $9.72, which implies about 21.56 times adjusted EPS, but that non-GAAP figure excludes substantial transaction and acquisition-related items. The margin of safety therefore depends more on closing certainty than on a conventional standalone multiple. The Buffett and Duan Yongping question is whether you would own the standalone company at this price if the market closed for five years and the merger disappeared.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTLS reference price, shares, and market capitalization | $209.60 July 9, 2026 close, 47.869 million shares outstanding, and about $10.03 billion market capitalization. Price multiplied by shares equals $10,033.36 million versus reported $10,030 million, a 0.03% variance. | StockAnalysis quote and statistics, Macrotrends market capitalization, SEC Q1 2026 share count, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and five-year financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4,264.0 million, up 2.5% from $4,160.3 million in 2024. StockAnalysis shows revenue of $1,318 million in 2021, $1,612 million in 2022, $3,353 million in 2023, $4,160 million in 2024, and $4,264 million in 2025. | Chart Industries 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 profitability, adjusted earnings, and free cash flow | GAAP net income attributable to Chart was $40.7 million, adjusted EPS was $9.72, adjusted EBITDA was $1,014.3 million, and continuing-operations free cash flow was $204.8 million. The reported GAAP result includes a $266.0 million Flowserve termination fee expense. | Chart Industries Q4 and full-year 2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results and backlog | Sales were $884.8 million versus $1,001.5 million in Q1 2025, net loss attributable to Chart was $17.1 million, cash used in continuing operations was $248.0 million, and backlog was $6,282.9 million versus $5,143.6 million a year earlier. | Chart Industries Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and balance-sheet position | March 31, 2026 cash and cash equivalents were $267.9 million, total debt net of issuance costs was $3,786.8 million, and long-term debt was $3,786.7 million. FY2025 cash was $366.0 million and long-term debt was $3,565.0 million. | Chart Industries Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, FY2025 Form 10-K, and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Baker Hughes merger consideration and status | The agreement provides $210.00 in cash per common share. Chart stockholders approved the merger, the European Commission conditionally approved it on July 10, 2026, and customary closing conditions remain as of the data cutoff. | Baker Hughes transaction announcement, Chart SEC filings, and European Commission decision | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference statistics | 50-day moving average $207.82, 200-day moving average $205.61, RSI 64.42, 20-day average volume 1.26 million shares, beta 1.53, and 52-week price change +27.78%. | StockAnalysis GTLS statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | At $209.60, financial_rigor.py calculated negative 205.49x TTM PE on EPS of negative $1.02, 3.18x PB on BVPS of $65.95, 998.10x P/FCF on FCF per share of $0.21, and a 0.10% FCF yield. These ratios are distorted by merger-related and working-capital effects. | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py exact valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
This GTLS AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Merger terms, regulatory status, market prices, and financial results can change. Verify current information and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
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