Graco Inc. research snapshot
GGG AI stock analysis currently reads Graco as a high-quality specialty industrial machinery franchise with strong margins, a fortress net-cash balance sheet, durable free cash flow, and a century-long fluid handling brand, tempered by soft organic demand and a stock that has already retraced toward multi-year support. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, GGG closed at $74.00 on July 10 with a verified market capitalization near $12.28 billion. The page uses scenario ranges and source checks rather than a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$74.00
Market cap
$12.28 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality fluid handling franchise, near-term organic softness and valuation discipline required
Trend status
Pullback near 52-week lows after a multi-month decline, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Graco designs and sells systems that move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray fluids and powders across contractor painting, industrial process, lubrication, and expansion end markets. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand trust, installed equipment, distributor relationships, application know-how, aftermarket parts and accessories, and high gross margins near 52%, but product categories remain competitive and cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mark Sheahan has guided for low single-digit organic growth in 2026 while using cash for dividends, buybacks, and bolt-on deals such as the planned Valco Melton acquisition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 5.8% to $2.237 billion and net earnings rose 7.4% to $521.8 million, but Q1 2026 organic sales fell 6% even as reported sales rose 2% on acquisitions and currency. | High |
| Valuation | At $74.00, GGG traded near 24.2x trailing EPS of $3.06, about 23.3x forward earnings, 4.5x book, and roughly 19x free cash flow, with a 1.59% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots were weak: price near the 52-week low of $72.51, below the StockAnalysis 50-day average near $75.84 and 200-day average near $82.95, with RSI around the mid-40s. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include contractor and industrial cycle weakness, organic sales misses, acquisition integration, Asia Pacific demand, competitive pressure on sprayers and pumps, and multiple compression if growth stays low single digits. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels into the next earnings print. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
GGG AI stock forecast
The GGG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $74.00 quote and an implied forward EPS near $3.17 from the roughly 23.3x forward PE. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $54, a base area near $87, and a bullish area near $118 before dividends.
$110 to $125
More likely if organic sales return to solid mid single digits, Valco Melton and other acquisitions add accretive growth, operating margins hold near the high 20% area, and investors re-rate GGG toward the high 20x earnings zone.
$80 to $95
More likely if Graco compounds EPS around mid single digits, keeps free cash flow conversion strong, continues dividends and buybacks, and trades near a mid-20x multiple in line with current forward PE.
$50 to $58
More likely if organic demand stays negative, contractor or industrial end markets weaken further, acquisition returns disappoint, or the stock is repriced closer to 16x earnings.
GGG AI technical analysis
GGG AI technical analysis is defensive as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $74.00 on July 10 after falling about 16% over the prior 52 weeks, sits just above the $72.51 52-week low, and remains below widely watched moving averages on StockAnalysis.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.00 | StockAnalysis reported GGG closed at $74.00 on July 10, 2026, up 1.11% on the day on about 826 thousand shares. |
| Near support | $72.50 to $73.00 | The 52-week low at $72.51 and StockInvest short-term support zones near the low $72s mark the first downside shelf. |
| Deeper support | $69.80 to $72.00 | Prior June 2026 commentary cited a critical support area near $69.80 if the multi-month decline resumes after a failed bounce. |
| Near resistance | $75.00 to $76.00 | StockInvest listed overhead resistance near $75 to $76, while StockAnalysis placed the 50-day moving average near $75.84. |
| Upper resistance | $82.95 to $95.69 | StockAnalysis listed a 200-day average near $82.95 and a 52-week high of $95.69, both well above the current quote. |
| Momentum | RSI neutral to soft | StockAnalysis listed 14-day RSI near 43.3 and Investing.com listed RSI near 47.6, both in a neutral band after a long drawdown from the highs. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.4 million shares | July 10 volume near 0.83 million was below the roughly 1.4 million average volume, so the bounce lacked strong participation. |
| Volatility | About 23% below 52-week high | The large drawdown from $95.69 means mean-reversion setups and trend breakdowns both matter more than breakout chasing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $72.51 | A decisive close under the 52-week low would invalidate the near-term support thesis and raise the risk of a deeper industrial re-rating. |
GGG AI trading strategy
The GGG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-quality industrial after a large drawdown. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, the July 22, 2026 earnings release, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for GGG to reclaim the $75 to $76 zone and then the $80 to $83 area on volume above the 20-day average. Confirmation improves if Q2 results show organic sales stabilization and backlog or bookings strength.
A close below $72.51 or a failed reclaim of the 50-day average after earnings should invalidate the near-term repair setup.
If GGG holds the $72.50 to $74 area without a negative guidance reset, compare price action with contractor demand, industrial orders, cash conversion, and acquisition commentary before treating the bounce as durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because quality industrials can still re-rate lower when organic growth and order visibility stay weak.
Track organic sales by segment and region, Contractor versus Industrial trends, Asia Pacific demand, free cash flow, net cash after Valco Melton, dividend and buyback pace, gross and operating margins, and order or backlog comments.
Reduce confidence if reported growth depends mainly on acquisitions and currency while organic volumes, margins, and cash conversion weaken.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Graco to move and apply hard-to-handle fluids and coatings more accurately, productively, and cleanly. The one-line essence is premium fluid handling equipment and aftermarket parts sold through strong channel relationships.
The moat is brand, distributor density, installed base, application engineering, and recurring parts and accessories rather than a single monopoly product. Gross margins near 52% and operating margins near 27% support that claim, but the moat can narrow if contractor demand or competitive pricing worsens.
The thesis fails if organic sales stay negative, contractor and industrial cycles deepen, acquisitions like Valco Melton fail to earn attractive returns, Asia Pacific remains soft, or investors stop paying mid-20x earnings for low single-digit growth.
Management should be judged by organic growth recovery, pricing versus cost, acquisition returns, capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and M&A, and whether the net-cash balance sheet is used to widen per-share value over a full cycle.
Graco sits inside long-duration needs for construction coatings, industrial process fluids, lubrication, adhesives, and automation-friendly dispensing, but those end markets are cyclical and exposed to housing, industrial production, and regional manufacturing trends.
At roughly 24x trailing earnings and 23x forward earnings after a large price drawdown, GGG is less expensive than many of its own peak multiples, yet not a deep value stock. Margin of safety improves if price holds support while organic growth and free cash flow stabilize.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GGG price | $74.00 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis market overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.28 billion, verified as $74.00 x 165.97 million shares (0.01% variance) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 165.97 million shares; 10-Q listed 165,968,177 shares as of April 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Graco Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.237 billion, up 5.83% year over year; company release $2,236.6 million | Graco FY2025 results release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $521.8 million, up 7.4% year over year; diluted EPS $3.08 | Graco FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and earnings | Sales $540.1 million (+2% reported, -6% organic); net earnings $118.5 million; diluted EPS $0.70 | Graco Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $712.17 million and total debt $52.89 million at Q1 2026; net cash about $659 million | StockAnalysis statistics and company Q1 disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | FY2025 free cash flow about $649 million on Macrotrends; TTM free cash flow about $631 million on StockAnalysis | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 24.18x, forward PE 23.33x, PB 4.48x, FCF yield about 5.1% to 5.3%, dividend yield 1.59% | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA near $75.84, 200-day MA near $82.95, RSI near 43.3, 52-week range $72.51 to $95.69 | StockAnalysis statistics and Investing.com technicals | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $118, base $87, bearish $54 using $3.17 forward EPS base | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
This GGG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if Gracos fundamentals, market price, rates, or investor sentiment change.
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