Graphic Packaging Holding Company research snapshot
GPK AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Graphic Packaging as a deep-value turnaround in progress that still carries unresolved legal, balance sheet, and demand risks. The stock closed at $11.35 on August 3, 2026, up 0.62 or 5.78% from the $10.73 close on July 31, after opening at $11.12 and trading in a session range of $10.96 to $11.41, with an after-hours quote of $11.42, up 0.07 or 0.62%, carrying a market capitalization near $3.36 billion that matches the $11.35 price times 295.89 million shares outstanding. The price sits above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages of roughly $11.20, $10.81, $10.74, and $10.24 but below the 200-day moving average near $12.58, with a 14-day RSI near 57.35, so the short-term trend is improving while the longer trend remains below its 200-day line. The last reported quarter, Q1 2026 released May 5, 2026, showed net sales up 2% to $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $232 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.09, and management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $700 million to $800 million of adjusted free cash flow while cutting about 500 roles, divesting the Croatia business, and planning about $500 million of debt paydown. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026 before the market opens, so this page uses the August 3 close for price and valuation data and the reported Q1 2026 quarter for financials. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, and the scenarios below are possibilities, not guarantees.
Current price
$11.35 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.62 or 5.78% from the $10.73 July 31 close, after opening at $11.12 and trading in a session range of $10.96 to $11.41, with an after-hours quote of $11.42, up 0.07 or 0.62%, on volume near 7.67 million shares versus a 20-day average near 4.94 million
Market cap
$3.36 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $11.35 price times 295.89 million shares outstanding
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Deep-value turnaround with visible cost and cash flow actions but unresolved litigation, leverage, and demand risk
Trend status
Improving above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $11.20, $10.81, $10.74, and $10.24 but still below the 200-day line near $12.58 ahead of the August 4 Q2 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Graphic Packaging is a leading integrated paperboard packaging producer serving food, beverage, foodservice, and household brands, with FY2025 revenue of $8.617 billion and a leading Americas position, but TTM net income of $274 million and a TTM profit margin near 3.2% are far below the 2023 peaks. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes mainly from capital-intensive integrated mills, food-grade certification, customer relationships, scale, and sustainability-driven paperboard demand, while pricing power is limited by third-party index prices and competitive industry pricing that lowered prices about 2% in Q1 2026. | Medium |
| Management | New CEO Robbert Rietbroek is executing a clear turnaround with roughly 500 roles cut, the Croatia divestiture, capex cut to about $450 million, a $40 million write-off of cancelled automation projects, and about $500 million of planned debt paydown, but credibility still needs to be rebuilt after the FY2025 guidance miss that triggered a securities class action. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 2.16% to $8.617 billion and net income fell to $444 million, TTM net income is $274 million with EPS of $0.92, and Q1 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.09, while management guides 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $700 million to $800 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $11.35, GPK trades near 12.3x trailing GAAP EPS, about 0.98x book value, 0.39x sales, and a 3.88% dividend yield, which look cheap on historical earnings but less compelling on weak trailing free cash flow and an EV/EBITDA near 7.8x. | Medium |
| Technical trend | GPK closed at $11.35 on August 3, 2026, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $11.20, $10.81, $10.74, and $10.24 but below its 200-day average near $12.58, with a 14-day RSI near 57.35 and a 52-week range of $8.79 to $23.47. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated risk from the securities class action filed May 7, 2026, net debt near $5.6 billion at roughly 4.4x leverage, weak demand and pricing power, the August 4 Q2 earnings event, and execution risk on the 2026 free cash flow target. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, and Macrotrends during the August 4, 2026 refresh. Lower for forward return estimates because litigation, demand, pricing, and free cash flow execution are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the cheap multiples do not by themselves confirm a floor. | Low-medium |
GPK AI stock forecast
The GPK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price target. Based on the $11.35 August 3, 2026 close, the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $0.82, and the FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus of $1.16, the framework points to a bearish area near $8 to $9, a base area near $12 to $13, and a bullish area near $16 to $18 over roughly two to three years, before dividends, depending on earnings recovery, boxboard pricing, free cash flow delivery, and the exit multiple. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$16 to $18 before dividends
More likely if packaging demand recovers, the $60 per ton boxboard price increases and other pricing actions stick, Waco ramps fully, free cash flow of $700 million to $800 million is delivered, debt is paid down, and the market applies a 12x to 13x multiple to a recovered EPS near $1.40 to $1.50, consistent with the analyst high target of $18.
$12 to $13 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS recovers toward the FY2027 consensus of $1.16, the multiple holds near 10x to 11x, and the 2026 guidance is confirmed, which is broadly consistent with the analyst average target of $11.80 and the median of $11.
$8 to $9 before dividends
More likely if demand and pricing stay weak, adjusted EPS stagnates near $0.80 to $0.90, securities litigation or balance sheet concerns build, or the 2026 free cash flow target slips, pushing the multiple toward 9x to 10x, consistent with the Wells Fargo target of $9.
GPK AI technical analysis
GPK AI technical analysis shows a recovering but still incomplete trend as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $11.35 on August 3, 2026, up 5.78% on volume near 7.67 million shares versus a 20-day average near 4.94 million, reclaiming its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $11.20, $10.81, $10.74, and $10.24 while remaining below its 200-day moving average near $12.58. The 14-day RSI is near 57.35 and historic volatility is elevated near 42% to 46%, so the short-term momentum is constructive but the move remains below the long-term downtrend line and ahead of the August 4 Q2 report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.35 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.62 or 5.78% from the $10.73 July 31 close after opening at $11.12 and trading in a range of $10.96 to $11.41; the after-hours quote was $11.42 up 0.07 or 0.62%, volume was near 7.67 million shares versus a 20-day average near 4.94 million, and the implied market cap near $3.36 billion matches the price times 295.89 million shares. |
| 5-day moving average | $11.20 | Barchart technical analysis listed a 5-day moving average near $11.20 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, confirming short-term momentum after the 5.78% advance. |
| 20-day moving average | $10.81 | Barchart technical analysis listed a 20-day moving average near $10.81 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and acting as the first pullback support reference. |
| 50-day moving average | $10.74 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $10.74 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the medium-term upturn. |
| 100-day moving average | $10.24 | Barchart technical analysis listed a 100-day moving average near $10.24 on August 3, 2026, part of the support cluster below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.58 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day moving average near $12.58 on August 3, 2026. This is the key overhead resistance and the long-term downtrend line that price must reclaim to confirm a broader reversal. |
| Near support | $10.73 to $10.96 | The July 30 and July 31 closes form the first support zone below the current price; a move below it would return price toward the consolidation base. |
| Deeper support | $10.15 to $10.33 | The July 8 to July 14 lows plus the 100-day moving average near $10.24 form a deeper support cluster in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history. |
| Psychological support | $10.00 | The round $10.00 level is a psychological reference; a close below it would open the path toward the 52-week low of $8.79. |
| Immediate resistance | $11.65 to $11.82 | The July 28, 2026 swing high close of $11.65 and intraday high of $11.82 form the immediate upside barrier before the 200-day moving average. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57.35 | The 14-day RSI was near 57.35 on StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart on August 3, 2026, constructive but not overbought. |
| Volume | Elevated on August 3 | August 3 volume near 7.67 million shares was well above the 20-day average near 4.94 million on StockAnalysis.com, with Barchart listing a 20-day average near 4.98 million, so the bounce had volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart listed 14-day historic volatility near 46% and 20-day near 42% on August 3, 2026, with beta near 0.68, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 4 report and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.60 to $10.73 | A daily close back below the $10.60 to $10.73 zone would weaken the short-term uptrend; a close below $10.00 would make the bounce look like a bear-market rally and shift attention toward the 52-week low of $8.79. |
GPK AI trading strategy
The GPK AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal investment advice. It connects price action with the August 4 Q2 2026 earnings report, 2026 guidance, free cash flow delivery, debt reduction, litigation developments, and boxboard pricing.
Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026 before the market opens, and the stock already moved up 5.78% into the report. Watch whether Q2 adjusted EBITDA lands in the guided $230 million to $250 million range and whether the 2026 guidance of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA is confirmed or changed.
Position size for binary earnings risk. A guidance cut or weak Q2 could erase the August 3 gain and retest the $10.00 to $10.30 support zone.
If GPK closes above the July 28 swing high near $11.65 to $11.82 on above-average volume, the next target is the 200-day moving average near $12.58, with the rising 5-day and 20-day moving averages as the short-term trend floor.
A close back below $10.60 to $10.73 would invalidate the short-term breakout setup and signal a return to the lower trading range.
If GPK pulls back toward the $10.00 to $10.40 support cluster, which includes the 100-day moving average near $10.24 and the psychological $10.00 level, compare the price with Q2 results, 2026 free cash flow guidance, debt paydown progress, and litigation news before acting.
Do not treat low multiples as an automatic floor. A close below $9.94 to $10.00 with elevated volume would point toward the 52-week low of $8.79, and the securities litigation adds event gap risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Graphic Packaging for paperboard cartons, cups, and containers that protect food, beverages, and household products through the supply chain. It is a scale-driven, contract-based packaging business with recurring demand from consumer brands, not a subscription or platform business.
The moat comes mainly from capital-intensive integrated mills, food-grade certification, customer relationships, scale, and sustainability-driven demand for paperboard over plastic. Pricing power is limited because much of the paperboard price is set by third-party index prices and competitive industry pricing.
The thesis fails if demand stays soft and competitive pricing persists, the securities class action filed May 7, 2026 results in a large settlement or an adverse finding, net debt near $5.6 billion at roughly 4.4x leverage becomes harder to service, or the 2026 free cash flow target of $700 million to $800 million is not delivered.
New CEO Robbert Rietbroek has moved fast: roughly 500 roles cut, the Croatia business divested, capital spending cut to about $450 million, a $40 million write-off of cancelled automation projects, and a plan to pay down about $500 million of debt while keeping the dividend. Execution is visible, but the FY2025 guidance miss that triggered the class action means credibility is still being rebuilt.
Graphic Packaging operates in a mature industry that grows with consumer and food and beverage spending. The long-term tailwind is the plastic-to-paper conversion opportunity in a roughly $15 billion paperboard packaging market, while the near-term headwinds are a value-seeking consumer, private label growth, and competitive pricing.
At $11.35, GPK trades near 12.3x trailing GAAP EPS, about 0.98x book value, 0.39x sales, and a 3.88% dividend yield. The margin of safety depends on delivering the 2026 free cash flow guidance, paying down debt, and confirming demand stabilization, not just on cheap headline multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPK price | $11.35 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.62 or 5.78% from the $10.73 July 31 close, after opening at $11.12 and trading in a session range of $10.96 to $11.41, with an after-hours quote of $11.42 up 0.07 or 0.62% on volume near 7.67 million shares | StockAnalysis.com GPK quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.36 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 market close and matching the $11.35 price times 295.89 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com GPK quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 295.89 million shares, down about 1.8% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM revenue | FY2025 revenue of $8.617 billion down 2.16% from $8.807 billion, and TTM revenue near $8.65 billion, matching across StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends revenue | August 4, 2026 |
| Five-year revenue trend | FY2021 $7.156B, FY2022 $9.440B, FY2023 $9.428B, FY2024 $8.807B, FY2025 $8.617B, showing a peak in 2022 to 2023 followed by two years of decline | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends revenue | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | TTM net income of $274 million down 55.8% and EPS of $0.92 down 55.1%, compared with FY2025 net income of $444 million and FY2023 net income of $723 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Net sales up 2% to $2.2 billion, volumes up 1%, adjusted EBITDA of $232 million with a 10.8% margin, adjusted EPS of $0.09, and adjusted cash flow of negative $183 million, improved from negative $442 million a year earlier | Graphic Packaging Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Q4 and FY2025 guidance miss | Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 missed consensus by $0.06, and the stock fell $2.36 or 15.97% to close at $12.42 on February 3, 2026, after the company guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA down with inventory reduction and cost headwinds, per the class action filing | Robbins LLP class action notice | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $700 million to $800 million, capital spending of about $450 million, about $500 million of debt paydown, Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $230 million to $250 million, and a reaffirmed dividend, per the Q1 2026 call | Graphic Packaging Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $190 million, total debt of $5.79 billion, net cash of negative $5.60 billion or negative $18.92 per share, equity book value of $3.25 billion, and book value per share of $10.97, with net leverage near 4.4x per the Q1 2026 call | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Trailing cash flow | Operating cash flow of $902 million, capital expenditures of negative $749 million, and free cash flow of $153 million over the trailing twelve months, with FCF per share of $0.52 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.44 per share, a 3.88% yield, quarterly payments of $0.11, next ex-dividend date September 15, 2026, payout ratio near 47.84%, and a dividend declared on July 29, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and company news | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | PE ratio of 12.34, forward PE of 12.76, price-to-sales of 0.39, price-to-book of 0.98, price-to-FCF of 21.94, EV/EBITDA of 7.81, and an earnings yield near 8.16% at the August 3 close | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $11.80 across 12 analysts, low of $9.00 and high of $18.00, median of $11, with 1 Strong Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell in July 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst updates | Truist reiterated Hold at $11 on August 3, Wells Fargo raised its target to $9 from $8 with an Underweight on July 15, BofA initiated Hold at $12 on July 14, RBC maintained Hold at $11 on July 9, and UBS reiterated Hold at $11 on July 6 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Consensus financial forecast | FY2026 revenue of $8.62 billion, FY2026 adjusted EPS of $0.82 down 54.4%, FY2027 adjusted EPS of $1.16 up 41.2%, and FY2026 free cash flow near $705 million | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 28.10 million shares short, 9.50% of shares outstanding, and 5.42 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $8.79 to $23.47, down 47.16% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a beta near 0.68 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $11.20, 20-day near $10.81, 50-day near $10.74, 100-day near $10.24, and 200-day near $12.58, with a 14-day RSI near 57.35 and 20-day historic volatility near 42%, matching Barchart and StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026 | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Securities litigation | A securities class action filed May 7, 2026 covers purchases between February 4, 2025 and February 2, 2026 and alleges undisclosed inventory management issues, reduced demand and volumes, increased costs, and unreliable FY2025 guidance, with a lead plaintiff deadline of July 6, 2026 | Robbins LLP class action notice | August 4, 2026 |
| Insider buying | Directors Jeffrey Stafeil and Robert Hagemann bought about $200,000 and $154,000 of common stock on May 7 to 8, 2026, per regulatory filings | StockAnalysis.com GPK news and TheFly | August 4, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026 before the market opens; results were not yet reported at the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, so this page uses the August 3 close and the Q1 2026 quarter | StockAnalysis.com quote and earnings calendar | August 4, 2026 |
This GPK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available at the stated cutoff date, including the August 3, 2026 close and the reported Q1 2026 quarter. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, litigation developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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