Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. research snapshot
GLPI AI stock analysis currently reads Gaming and Leisure Properties as a specialty net-lease REIT that owns casino and related real estate, collects long-term rent from gaming operators, and returns cash through a high dividend. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $43.18 on July 10, 2026, with an independently verified market capitalization of about $12.23 billion. Record Q1 2026 results, raised 2026 AFFO guidance, rent coverage above 1.8x at major tenants, and a roughly 7.6% dividend yield support the income case, while tenant concentration, leverage near 5.0x, interest-rate sensitivity, and a weak technical trend keep the setup from being automatic. This page uses scenario analysis, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$43.18
Market cap
$12.23 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-yield gaming REIT with durable triple-net leases, tenant concentration, and rate-sensitive valuation
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after a pullback
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GLPI owns gaming and related facilities under long-term triple-net style leases, so operators run casinos and GLPI collects rent, escalators, and development-related income. Company materials highlight about 71 properties across 21 states. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce licensed casino real estate, long master leases, operator switching costs, transaction credibility with regional gaming companies, and scale among gaming REITs. Capital can still compete when cap rates and financing spreads are attractive. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Peter Carlino leads a capital-allocation model built on sale-leasebacks, development funding, and balance-sheet discipline. The test is whether the nearly $1.8 billion pipeline funds at attractive spreads while leverage stays near the 5.0x to 5.5x target range. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $1.595 billion and net income about $850.4 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $420.0 million, FFO was $304.0 million, AFFO was $297.1 million, and full-year 2026 AFFO guidance was raised to $4.08 to $4.12 per diluted share. | High |
| Valuation | At $43.18, GLPI traded near 13.5x TTM EPS, about 10.5x midpoint 2026 AFFO, roughly 2.6x book value, and a verified 7.60% dividend yield on a $3.28 annualized dividend. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages after sliding from the mid-$40s. RSI near 40.7 shows weak momentum without deep oversold conditions. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to medium-high for an income REIT. Main risks are tenant concentration, gaming demand and regulation, interest rates, leverage near 5.0x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, equity issuance, and multiple compression if REIT yields reprice. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported results, share count, market cap math, dividend yield, and calculated technical averages. Lower for exact price outcomes because REIT multiples move with rates, credit spreads, tenant news, and capital deployment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. GLPI has visible rent streams and AFFO guidance, but the stock still needs tenant stability, pipeline discipline, and rate relief or multiple stability to turn a high yield into a durable margin of safety. | Medium |
GLPI AI stock forecast
The GLPI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $43.18 quote, midpoint 2026 AFFO guidance near $4.10 per share, and REIT income multiples rather than a single deterministic price target. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $63.50, a base area near $50.00, and a bearish area near $34.90 before dividends. Bullish odds rise if AFFO compounds, funding spreads stay attractive, and multiples expand. Bearish odds rise if rates stay high, tenant credit weakens, or the market compresses gaming REIT multiples.
$60 to $65
More likely if AFFO per share compounds near 6% annually, rent coverage stays healthy, the $1.8 billion pipeline funds at attractive cap rates, leverage stays near the low end of the target range, and the market pays about a 13x terminal AFFO multiple. The verified bull model produced about $63.50.
$48 to $52
More likely if GLPI delivers near the midpoint of 2026 AFFO guidance of $4.08 to $4.12, dividend coverage remains intact, contractual escalators and completed deals drive mid-single-digit AFFO growth, and investors value the stock near an 11x AFFO multiple. The verified base model produced about $50.00.
$33 to $36
More likely if AFFO stalls, rates stay restrictive, tenant concentration becomes a credit problem, funding costs compress acquisition spreads, or the market applies about an 8.5x AFFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $34.90.
GLPI AI technical analysis
GLPI AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close was $43.18, below a 20-day average near $44.93, a 50-day average near $46.42, and a 200-day average near $45.75. RSI near 40.7 signals soft momentum after a multi-week pullback from the high $40s. Volume spiked on the July 8 decline, so a recovery needs better follow-through rather than a one-day bounce.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.18 | July 10, 2026 close used for market cap, valuation math, and technical context at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $42.70 to $43.00 | This zone covers the July 8 to July 10 lows near $42.68 to $42.91 and is the first area bulls need to defend. |
| Secondary support | $41.20 to $41.50 | This area lines up with the lower end of the recent 52-week range near about $41.33. A break would weaken the medium-term chart. |
| Near resistance | $44.90 to $45.00 | The 20-day moving average near $44.93 is the first reclaim zone after the pullback. |
| Intermediate resistance | $45.70 to $46.50 | This band includes the 200-day average near $45.75 and the 50-day average near $46.42. Holding above it would improve the trend. |
| Higher resistance | $48.00 to $49.95 | The March 2026 area high and the roughly $49.82 to $49.95 52-week high zone mark stronger overhead supply. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.7 | Momentum is weak but not deeply oversold, so a bounce without reclaiming moving averages may fade. |
| Volume | About 2.86 million 20-day average shares | July 8 volume jumped above 7 million shares on the decline. A durable recovery should show expanding volume on up days. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.69 | Reported beta is below the broad market, but REIT drawdowns can still be sharp when rates, credit spreads, or tenant headlines move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $41.20 or lower AFFO guide | A close under the 52-week low area, weaker 2026 AFFO guidance, tenant credit stress, or a failed reclaim of the 20-day average would weaken the base case. |
GLPI AI trading strategy
The GLPI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-yield gaming REIT with soft short-term technicals. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for GLPI to reclaim and hold $44.90 to $46.50, covering the 20-day, 200-day, and 50-day averages, with volume above the recent 20-day average. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results keep or raise the $4.08 to $4.12 AFFO guidance band.
A failed reclaim followed by a close back below $43.00, or expanding volume on down days, should invalidate the short-term setup.
If GLPI holds $41.20 to $43.00 without a tenant, leverage, or guidance problem, compare price action with dividend coverage, rent coverage, pipeline funding economics, and REIT rate moves.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a hard floor. Higher rates or tenant stress can reprice income REITs even when AFFO is stable.
Track AFFO per share, cash rent growth, rent coverage by major tenants, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, pipeline funding of the roughly $1.8 billion commitments, dividend declarations, equity issuance, and guidance revisions.
Reduce confidence if AFFO growth relies mainly on multiple expansion, leverage rises above the 5.0x to 5.5x target range without clear deal spreads, or one tenant drives most incremental risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay GLPI because casino operators need specialized real estate and often prefer to free capital through sale-leaseback or development funding structures. GLPI converts contractual rent, escalators, and related real-estate income into dividends and new investment capacity.
The moat is strongest in scarce licensed gaming locations, long lease terms, operator relationships, and underwriting know-how for complex regional casino transactions. It weakens if capital costs rise faster than deal yields or if tenant credit deteriorates.
The thesis can fail if a major tenant weakens, gaming demand or regulation turns adverse, rates keep compressing REIT multiples, pipeline funding earns thin spreads, leverage rises, equity issuance dilutes AFFO per share, or investors overpay for yield without checking rent coverage.
Peter Carlino and the GLPI team emphasize balance-sheet flexibility, tenant underwriting, and structured funding solutions for operators. The key test is whether the growth pipeline raises AFFO per share without pushing leverage or tenant risk outside the stated framework.
Gaming real estate sits inside a longer consumer-entertainment trend, but near-term results still depend on regional casino health, competition, regulation, financing markets, and REIT income multiples. GLPI is more a rent collector than an operator, yet tenant cash flows remain the ultimate support for the dividend.
At $43.18, verified math shows about 13.5x TTM EPS, roughly 10.5x midpoint 2026 AFFO, and a 7.60% dividend yield. The three-scenario model points to about $63.50 bull, $50.00 base, and $34.90 bear. Margin of safety is moderate because the yield is high, but tenant concentration and rates still matter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLPI price | $43.18 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance chart data and company historic stock lookup | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.23 billion, verified as $43.18 x 283.22 million shares with 0.00% variance versus reported $12.23 billion | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 283.22 million shares, cross-validated against StockTitan near 283.2 million | Morningstar quote page and StockTitan overview | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.5948 billion company-reported, cross-validated against Macrotrends annual revenue of $1.595 billion | GLPI Q4 2025 results release and Macrotrends revenue page | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and FFO | Net income $850.4 million and FFO $1.1142 billion for full-year 2025 | GLPI Q4 2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $420.0 million, net income $239.4 million, FFO $304.0 million, and AFFO $297.1 million | GLPI Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 AFFO guidance and leverage | Raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $1.212 billion to $1.223 billion, or $4.08 to $4.12 per diluted share and OP/LTIP units; net debt to adjusted EBITDA 5.0x at March 31, 2026 | GLPI Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | Q2 2026 dividend $0.82 implies $3.28 annualized; verified yield 7.60%, PE 13.54x on $3.19 TTM EPS proxy, P/AFFO about 10.53x on $4.10 midpoint guidance, and PB about 2.64x on $16.36 book value | Company dividend announcement, REITNotes book value context, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio and rent coverage | About 71 properties in 21 states; management has cited five major tenants as roughly 97% of cash rent with rent coverage over 1.8x on a per-tenant basis in 2025 commentary | Company website overview and Q3 2025 earnings commentary | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day SMA about $44.93, 50-day SMA about $46.42, 200-day SMA about $45.75, RSI14 about 40.7, 20-day average volume about 2.86 million, 52-week high about $49.82, 52-week low about $41.33 | Yahoo Finance one-year daily chart calculations | July 12, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Current property-level rent rolls, exact tenant share of cash rent after 2026 acquisitions, and full debt maturity schedules require the latest supplemental package and SEC filings; summary IR pages do not replace primary exhibits. | GLPI investor relations and SEC filing links | July 12, 2026 |
This GLPI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, tenant credit, gaming demand, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, leverage, pipeline funding performance, or market conditions change.
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