Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. research snapshot
GLPI AI stock analysis currently reads Gaming and Leisure Properties as a specialty net-lease REIT that owns casino and related real estate, collects long-term rent from gaming operators, and returns cash through a high dividend. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $44.79 on July 31, 2026, with an independently verified market capitalization of about $13.41 billion. Record Q2 2026 results, a raised 2026 AFFO guidance band, leverage at 4.8x below the stated target, rent coverage between 1.58x and 2.46x at major tenants, and a roughly 7.3% dividend yield support the income case, while tenant concentration, rate-sensitive REIT multiples, equity issuance, and a chart still below key moving averages keep the setup from being automatic. This page uses scenario analysis, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$44.79
Market cap
$13.41 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-yield gaming REIT with record second-quarter results, raised AFFO guidance, and below-target leverage
Trend status
Recovering after a July pullback, trading just below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with neutral momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GLPI owns gaming and related facilities under long-term triple-net style leases, so operators run casinos and GLPI collects rent, escalators, and development-related income. Company materials highlight about 71 properties across 21 states. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce licensed casino real estate, long master leases, operator switching costs, transaction credibility with regional gaming companies, and scale among gaming REITs. Capital can still compete when cap rates and financing spreads are attractive. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Peter Carlino leads a capital-allocation model built on sale-leasebacks, development funding, and balance-sheet discipline. Q2 2026 showed a 5% dividend increase, a forward settlement that raised $351 million, and leverage at 4.8x, below the stated 5.0x to 5.5x target range. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.0% to $430.5 million, AFFO grew 10.1% to $304.0 million, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 12.2% to $405.5 million. Full-year 2026 AFFO guidance was raised to $4.10 to $4.12 per diluted share, with leverage at 4.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.79, GLPI traded near 13.1x TTM EPS, about 10.9x the midpoint 2026 AFFO guidance of $4.11, roughly 2.6x book value, and a verified 7.32% dividend yield on a $3.28 annualized dividend. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 50-day average near $45.57 and the 200-day average near $45.66 after bouncing off the July 8 low near $42.91. RSI near 48.6 is neutral, showing a recovery attempt without a confirmed trend change. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to medium-high for an income REIT. Main risks are tenant concentration, Bally's credit, gaming demand and regulation, interest rates, leverage, equity issuance, iGaming and VGT competition, and multiple compression if REIT yields reprice. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported results, share count, market cap math, dividend yield, and calculated technical averages. Lower for exact price outcomes because REIT multiples move with rates, credit spreads, tenant news, and capital deployment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. GLPI has visible rent streams, raised AFFO guidance, and a 4.8x leverage ratio, but the stock still needs tenant stability, development execution, and rate relief or multiple stability to turn a high yield into a durable margin of safety. | Medium |
GLPI AI stock forecast
The GLPI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $44.79 quote, midpoint 2026 AFFO guidance near $4.11 per share, and REIT income multiples rather than a single deterministic price target. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $63.60, a base area near $51.60, and a bearish area near $38.70 before dividends. Bullish odds rise if AFFO compounds, development funding earns healthy spreads, and multiples expand. Bearish odds rise if rates stay high, tenant credit weakens, iGaming or VGT competition intensifies, or the market compresses gaming REIT multiples.
$60 to $65
More likely if AFFO per share compounds near 6% annually, rent coverage stays healthy, the $750 million to $800 million 2026 development program funds at attractive cap rates, leverage stays near the low end of the target range, and the market pays about a 13x terminal AFFO multiple. The verified bull model produced about $63.60.
$50 to $53
More likely if GLPI delivers near the midpoint of the raised 2026 AFFO guidance of $4.10 to $4.12, dividend coverage remains intact, contractual escalators and completed deals drive mid-single-digit AFFO growth, and investors value the stock near an 11x AFFO multiple. The verified base model produced about $51.60.
$36 to $41
More likely if AFFO stalls, rates stay restrictive, Bally's or another major tenant becomes a credit problem, development funding spreads compress, iGaming or VGT competition weakens regional demand, or the market applies about a 9x AFFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $38.70.
GLPI AI technical analysis
GLPI AI technical analysis is cautious-to-neutral as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close was $44.79, below a 50-day average near $45.57 and a 200-day average near $45.66, but above the July 8 low near $42.91. RSI near 48.6 signals neutral momentum after a recovery from the late-June slide. The stock rallied from about $42.91 on July 8 to about $46.01 on July 29 before pulling back after the Q2 2026 report, so the market is waiting for a clean reclaim of the moving averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.79 | July 31, 2026 close used for market cap, valuation math, and technical context at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $43.89 to $44.22 | This zone covers the July 30 to July 31 session lows and is the first area bulls need to defend after the post-earnings dip. |
| Secondary support | $42.68 to $42.91 | The July 8 to July 10 lows near $42.68 to $42.91 mark the floor of the recent pullback. A break would open the path toward the 52-week low area. |
| Key support | $41.17 | This is the verified 52-week low. A close below it would weaken the medium-term chart and the base case. |
| Near resistance | $45.57 to $46.12 | The 50-day moving average near $45.57 and the July 30 intraday high near $46.12 form the first reclaim zone after the earnings dip. |
| Intermediate resistance | $46.63 to $47.50 | The June highs near $46.63 to $47.50 mark overhead supply from the early-summer range. |
| Higher resistance | $48.40 to $49.95 | The June 11 area high and the roughly $49.95 52-week high zone mark stronger overhead supply. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48.6 | Momentum is neutral after the recovery, so a breakout needs a confirmed move above the moving averages rather than a one-day spike. |
| Volume | About 2.57 million 20-day average shares | July 8 volume jumped above 7 million shares on the decline. The post-earnings dip saw about 3.0 million shares, so follow-through still needs to improve. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.68 | Reported beta is below the broad market, but REIT drawdowns can still be sharp when rates, credit spreads, or tenant headlines move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $41.17 or weaker guidance | A close under the 52-week low, lower 2026 AFFO guidance, tenant credit stress, or a failed reclaim of the 50-day average would weaken the base case. |
GLPI AI trading strategy
The GLPI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-yield gaming REIT with a recovering but still below-average technical setup. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for GLPI to reclaim and hold $45.57 to $46.12, covering the 50-day average and the July 30 high, with volume above the recent 20-day average. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 momentum continues and the $4.10 to $4.12 AFFO guidance band is kept or raised.
A failed reclaim followed by a close back below $44.22, or expanding volume on down days, should invalidate the short-term setup.
If GLPI holds $42.68 to $44.22 without a tenant, leverage, or guidance problem, compare price action with dividend coverage, rent coverage, development funding economics, leverage near 4.8x, and REIT rate moves.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a hard floor. Higher rates, tenant stress, or iGaming and VGT competition can reprice income REITs even when AFFO is stable.
Track AFFO per share, cash rent growth, rent coverage by major tenants, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, the $750 million to $800 million 2026 development program, dividend declarations, equity issuance, forward sale settlements, and guidance revisions.
Reduce confidence if AFFO growth relies mainly on multiple expansion, leverage rises above the 5.0x to 5.5x target range without clear deal spreads, one tenant drives most incremental risk, or share issuance dilutes AFFO per share.
Investment research summary
Customers pay GLPI because casino operators need specialized real estate and often prefer to free capital through sale-leaseback or development funding structures. GLPI converts contractual rent, escalators, and related real-estate income into dividends and new investment capacity.
The moat is strongest in scarce licensed gaming locations, long lease terms, operator relationships, and underwriting know-how for complex regional casino transactions. It weakens if capital costs rise faster than deal yields, if tenant credit deteriorates, or if iGaming and VGT competition pressure regional demand.
The thesis can fail if a major tenant weakens, gaming demand or regulation turns adverse, rates keep compressing REIT multiples, development funding earns thin spreads, leverage rises, equity issuance dilutes AFFO per share, or investors overpay for yield without checking rent coverage.
Peter Carlino and the GLPI team emphasize balance-sheet flexibility, tenant underwriting, and structured funding solutions for operators. Q2 2026 raised the dividend 5%, settled a forward for $351 million, and kept leverage at 4.8x, below target. The key test is whether the 2026 development program lifts AFFO per share without pushing leverage or tenant risk outside the stated framework.
Gaming real estate sits inside a longer consumer-entertainment trend, but near-term results still depend on regional casino health, competition, regulation, iGaming and VGT adoption, financing markets, and REIT income multiples. GLPI is more a rent collector than an operator, yet tenant cash flows remain the ultimate support for the dividend.
At $44.79, verified math shows about 13.1x TTM EPS, roughly 10.9x midpoint 2026 AFFO, and a 7.32% dividend yield. The three-scenario model points to about $63.60 bull, $51.60 base, and $38.70 bear. Margin of safety is moderate because the yield is high and leverage is below target, but tenant concentration, Bally's credit, iGaming competition, and rates still matter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLPI price | $44.79 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance chart data and company historic stock lookup | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.41 billion, verified as $44.79 x 299.39 million shares with 0.00% variance versus reported $13.41 billion | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and S&P Global data | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 299.39 million shares, up 3.01% year over year after the June 1, 2026 forward settlement that issued 7,589,487 shares for $351.0 million in net proceeds | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis and GLPI Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Total revenue $430.5 million, net income $234.9 million, FFO $302.3 million, AFFO $304.0 million, and Adjusted EBITDA $405.5 million | GLPI Q2 2026 results release on GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 AFFO guidance and leverage | Raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $1.219 billion to $1.225 billion, or $4.10 to $4.12 per diluted share and OP/LTIP units; net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 4.8x at June 30, 2026, below the 5.0x to 5.5x target range | GLPI Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | Q2 2026 dividend $0.82 implies $3.28 annualized, up 5.1%; verified yield 7.32%, PE 13.13x on $3.41 TTM EPS, P/AFFO about 10.9x on $4.11 midpoint guidance, and PB about 2.61x on $17.13 book value | GLPI Q2 2026 results release, S&P Global data, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio and rent coverage | About 71 gaming and related facilities in 21 states; 34 operated by PENN, 16 by Bally's, 6 by Caesars, 4 by Boyd, 4 by Strategic Gaming Management, 3 by Cordish, 1 by American Racing, 1 managed by a Hard Rock subsidiary, and 2 under development; master lease rent coverage ranged from 1.58x to 2.46x | GLPI Q2 2026 results release and Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent developments | Funded $216.3 million to complete the $225 million PENN Aurora landside commitment at a 7.75% cap rate, settled a forward for 7.6 million shares and $351 million, raised the dividend 5% to $0.82, and targeted $400 million to $450 million of additional development funding in the second half of 2026 | GLPI Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day SMA about $45.57, 200-day SMA about $45.66, RSI14 about 48.6, 20-day average volume about 2.57 million, 52-week high about $49.95, and 52-week low about $41.17 | S&P Global data via StockAnalysis and one-year daily price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 24 analysts with an average price target near $54.13; recent target changes include Morgan Stanley $55, Barclays $50, Stifel $49, Scotiabank $49, JPMorgan $51, and Wells Fargo $45 | S&P Global data via StockAnalysis and analyst notes | August 3, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Current property-level rent rolls, exact tenant share of cash rent after the 2026 acquisitions, and full debt maturity schedules require the latest supplemental package and SEC filings; summary IR pages do not replace primary exhibits. | GLPI investor relations and SEC filing links | August 3, 2026 |
This GLPI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, tenant credit, gaming demand, iGaming or VGT competition, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, leverage, development pipeline performance, or market conditions change.
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