Graham Holdings Company research snapshot
GHC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Graham Holdings Company as a diversified holding company with improving cash generation trading at a full rather than distressed valuation. The stock closed at $1,203.54 on July 31, 2026, up about 26% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a market capitalization near $5.10 billion, re-verified during this refresh as $1,203.54 times 4,251,268 shares outstanding per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, showed revenue up 7% to $1.30 billion, operating income of $83.6 million, and adjusted operating cash flow of $119.8 million, while GAAP earnings of $64.86 per share were flattered by a $137.0 million pension settlement gain, $101.9 million of marketable securities gains, and a $69.6 million U.S. income tax benefit tied to the Kaplan Languages Group sale. Excluding those items, Q2 net income attributable to common shares was $84.2 million, or $19.46 per share, up from $14.33 a year earlier. The stock traded at 9.74x trailing earnings, a multiple that flatters normalized power, and 17.70x forward earnings near the top of its recent range. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$1,203.54
Market cap
$5.10 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Diversified holding company with improving healthcare and education franchises, solid cash generation, and a reasonable but not bargain valuation
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 5-day average, with neutral RSI near 57 and low ADX near 13
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Graham Holdings is a diversified holding company anchored by Kaplan education, a fast-growing CSI Pharmacy home infusion business in healthcare, local TV broadcasting, manufacturing, automotive dealerships, and smaller retail and media businesses. Q2 2026 revenue rose 7% to $1.30 billion and adjusted operating cash flow rose 8% to $119.8 million. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is narrow and mostly confined to the Kaplan brand in test preparation and licensed education, local broadcast licenses at Graham Media Group, and the infrastructure and payer relationships built by CSI Pharmacy. No segment has a wide or durable competitive advantage. | Low-medium |
| Management | Tim O'Shaughnessy continues a conservative capital allocation record: Q1 2026 buybacks near $1,061 per share, the Kaplan Languages Group sale closed May 1, 2026, a $113.9 million pension annuity purchase that settled $124.3 million of obligation, and an AI push that includes an AI tutor across more than 70 courses and KapAdvisor with 100,000 cumulative enrollments. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $1.30 billion up 7%, operating income was $83.6 million, and adjusted operating cash flow was $119.8 million up 8%. First-half adjusted operating cash flow rose 17% to $232.7 million, while adjusted EPS excluding one-time items was $19.46 in Q2 and $36.19 for the first half, both up year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $1,203.54, financial_rigor.py calculates 9.74x trailing GAAP EPS, 17.70x forward earnings, 1.07x book value, 20.56x trailing free cash flow, and a 4.86% free cash flow yield. The trailing multiple flatters normalized power, so the forward multiple is the more relevant check. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | GHC closed at $1,203.54 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day average near $1,211, with 14-day RSI near 57.44 and 14-day ADX near 12.86, a combination that reads as a developing trend rather than a strong breakout. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are the persistent conglomerate discount, thin liquidity near 20,000 shares a day, the Q2 education revenue decline and Pathways pressure from international student policy, automotive weakness tied to the D.C. metro area, broadcast advertising seasonality after the 2026 election cycle, and reliance on one-time gains for reported EPS. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data and market math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and Barchart. Medium for forward assessment because one-time items and segment swings make normalized earnings estimates less certain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. GHC is not overvalued on forward earnings, but the holding company structure, thin coverage, low liquidity, and mix of one-time income items create a wide range of potential outcomes. | Medium-low |
GHC AI stock forecast
The GHC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $1,203.54 and a normalized EPS basis near $68 per share, which is implied by the 17.70 forward PE and the first-half 2026 adjusted EPS of $36.19. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $768, a base area near $1,181, and a bullish area near $1,720 before dividends, using EPS growth of -2%, 5%, and 10% and exit multiples of 12x, 15x, and 19x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and the stock already trades above the base output, which means much of the upside is priced in unless growth beats the base assumptions.
$1,650 to $1,780
More likely if CSI Pharmacy keeps scaling in biologics and IVIG, education stabilizes despite Pathways pressure, manufacturing momentum continues, political advertising boosts broadcasting through 2026, buybacks continue, and the market narrows the conglomerate discount.
$1,100 to $1,250
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid single-digit rate, education holds despite international student policy headwinds, automotive recovers from the D.C. slowdown, and the stock holds near a 15x forward multiple.
$700 to $820
More likely if international student restrictions deepen the Pathways and Kaplan Business School pressure, automotive stays weak, healthcare growth slows as CSI reinvests, broadcasting fades after the election cycle, or the conglomerate discount widens.
GHC AI technical analysis
GHC AI technical analysis shows a stock above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day average as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart reported GHC closing at $1,203.54 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day average near $1,211.07, with 14-day RSI near 57.44 and 14-day ADX near 12.86. The stock made a 52-week high near $1,262.35 on July 30, 2026, before pulling back, so the chart reads as a developing uptrend with overhead supply rather than a fresh breakout.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1,203.54 | StockAnalysis.com close at the July 31, 2026 market close; market cap math uses 4.251268 million shares from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover. |
| 5-day moving average | $1,211.07 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $1,211.07, slightly above the July 31 close, which signals near-term momentum cooled after the 52-week high test. |
| Near support | $1,151 to $1,177 | The 50-day moving average near $1,151.53 and the 20-day moving average near $1,177.39 define the first pullback support zone. |
| Secondary support | $1,107 to $1,125 | The 200-day moving average near $1,107.50 and the 100-day moving average near $1,125.32 form a deeper support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $1,226 to $1,262 | The July 30 close near $1,225.52 and the 52-week high near $1,262.35 cap the immediate upside. |
| 50-day SMA | $1,151.53 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $1,151.53 on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day SMA | $1,107.50 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day moving average near $1,107.50, below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57, ADX near 13 | 14-day RSI was near 57.44, neutral by the common 30/70 thresholds, and 14-day ADX near 12.86 on Barchart, which signals a developing rather than strong trend. |
| Volume | About 19,500 to 19,900 shares per day | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 19,880 and StockAnalysis.com near 19,523 on July 31, 2026, so large orders can move the stock noticeably. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR $38.68 | Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $38.68, about 3.21% of price, with 14-day historical volatility near 23.60%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,151, then $1,107 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $1,151.53 would weaken the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day moving average near $1,107.50 would signal broader trend damage. |
GHC AI trading strategy
The GHC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a diversified holding company with thin liquidity. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, quarterly segment results, KLG transition updates, buyback announcements, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for GHC to reclaim its 5-day average near $1,211 and then clear the $1,226 to $1,262 resistance zone on above-average volume, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages still rising.
A daily close back below the 50-day moving average near $1,151, or a failed attempt at the 52-week high on below-average volume, should invalidate the trend setup.
If GHC pulls back toward the $1,151 to $1,177 support zone or the $1,107 to $1,125 cluster without new segment damage, compare the price move with the forward PE near 17.70 and the adjusted cash flow trajectory.
Do not use the conglomerate discount argument as a substitute for stop discipline, because a low-liquidity stock can gap on earnings, tax, or portfolio news.
Track Kaplan revenue and Pathways enrollment, CSI Pharmacy revenue and ramp in biologics and IVIG, Graham Media Group advertising revenue through the 2026 election cycle, manufacturing momentum, automotive results, buyback pace, and balance sheet cash and borrowings.
Reduce confidence if education revenue keeps declining for multiple quarters, healthcare growth slows as CSI reinvests, broadcasting revenue drops after the election cycle, or the company increases leverage for acquisitions.
Investment research summary
Graham Holdings is a collection of businesses where Kaplan education and the fast-growing CSI Pharmacy healthcare operation are the main value drivers, supported by local TV broadcasting, manufacturing, automotive dealerships, and smaller retail and media businesses. It operates as a holding company rather than a single integrated enterprise.
The moat is narrow and mostly confined to the Kaplan brand in test preparation and licensed education, Graham Media Group local broadcast licenses, and the payer relationships and infrastructure of CSI Pharmacy. None of these advantages are wide or durable against determined competitors.
The thesis fails if international student restrictions deepen the Pathways and Kaplan Business School pressure, education revenue keeps declining, CSI Pharmacy growth stalls during its reinvestment phase, automotive stays weak, broadcasting fades after the election cycle, or the market keeps the conglomerate discount wide.
Tim O'Shaughnessy and the team have kept a conservative capital allocation record: Q1 buybacks near $1,061, the Kaplan Languages Group sale closed May 1, a pension annuity purchase that settled $124.3 million of obligation, and an AI program across Kaplan products. The open question is whether deployed capital can compound per-share cash flow without relying on one-time gains.
Education, healthcare, home infusion, broadcasting, and automotive are large markets, but each faces structural change. International student policy, digital media referral declines, election-cycle advertising swings, and healthcare reimbursement scrutiny all shape the segments Graham Holdings owns.
At about 17.70x forward earnings and 20.56x trailing free cash flow, GHC is not cheap after a 26% 52-week run, and the 9.74x trailing PE flatters normalized power. Margin of safety improves below $1,100 where the forward multiple compresses toward the lower end of its recent range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GHC price | $1,203.54 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 1.79% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.10 billion on StockAnalysis.com, re-verified as $1,203.54 x 4.251268 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 4,251,268 shares outstanding at June 30, 2026, per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1,302.5 million, up 7% from $1,215.8 million in Q2 2025, with gains at television broadcasting, healthcare, manufacturing, automotive, and other businesses offset by an education decline | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating income | $83.6 million, up from $72.8 million in Q2 2025, with Q2 adjusted operating cash flow of $119.8 million versus $111.3 million a year earlier | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Revenue of $2,538.5 million up 7%, operating income of $141.5 million, and adjusted operating cash flow of $232.7 million up 17% from $199.4 million | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | Net income attributable to common shares of $281.1 million, or $64.86 per diluted share, flattered by a $137.0 million pension settlement gain, $101.9 million of net gains on marketable equity securities, and the KLG related U.S. income tax benefit | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | Excluding items, net income attributable to common shares was $84.2 million, or $19.46 per share, versus $63.1 million, or $14.33 per share, in Q2 2025 | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Kaplan Languages Group sale | The KLG transaction closed on May 1, 2026; the company recorded a $19.0 million pre-tax impairment in Q1 2026, a $5.2 million loss on sale in Q2 2026, and a $69.6 million U.S. income tax benefit during the first six months of 2026 | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Pension annuity purchase | In June 2026 the company purchased an irrevocable group annuity for $113.9 million to settle $124.3 million of defined benefit pension obligation for about 1,080 retirees, recording a $137.0 million pre-tax noncash settlement gain in Q2 2026 | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash, marketable equity securities, and other investments of $1,297.4 million and borrowings of $900.4 million at an average interest rate of 5.7% as of June 30, 2026 | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 30, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | 110,471 Class B shares repurchased at a cost of $122.0 million in the first half of 2026, with 352,011 shares of remaining authorization at June 30, 2026 | Graham Holdings Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.91 billion, up 2.52% from $4.79 billion in FY2024, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financial summary | TTM revenue approximately $5.07 billion, TTM net income approximately $540 million, and TTM EPS near $123.55, with the trailing figures influenced by Q2 2026 one-time gains | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Segment revenue, TTM | Education $1,741 million, automotive $1,136 million, healthcare $896 million, manufacturing $500 million, television broadcasting $437 million, specialty $167 million, retail $122 million, and media $69 million | StockAnalysis.com segment data | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 9.74x trailing PE, 17.70x forward PE, 1.07x price to book, 20.56x price to FCF, 11.39x EV/EBITDA, and a 4.86% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet detail | Cash and short-term investments of $1,246 million, total debt of $1,339 million, net debt near $93 million, book value of $4,762 million, and tangible book value of $2,941 million as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $326.79 million, capital expenditures of $78.83 million, and free cash flow of $247.96 million, with first-half 2026 adjusted operating cash flow of $232.7 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $1.88 per share declared in May 2026, annual rate of $7.52, yield near 0.62%, with the ex-dividend date on July 16, 2026 and the payment on August 6, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividends and Graham Holdings press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 128,147 shares short, 3.03% of shares outstanding, 4.50% of float, and 5.70 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.72, lower than the broader market, reflecting the holding company structure and low trading volume | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | No analyst price target or consensus is available on StockAnalysis.com, a coverage gap that lowers confidence in forward estimates | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 5-day SMA $1,211.07, 20-day SMA $1,177.39, 50-day SMA $1,151.53, 100-day SMA $1,125.32, 200-day SMA $1,107.50, 14-day RSI 57.44, 14-day ADX 12.86, 14-day ATR $38.68 | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bearish near $768, base near $1,181, and bullish near $1,720 over three years, based on financial_rigor.py using a normalized EPS of $68 with -2%, 5%, and 10% growth and 12x, 15x, and 19x exit multiples | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This GHC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, segment results, tax or pension items, portfolio gains, market moves, or macro conditions. The trailing valuation ratios on this page are flattered by one-time gains and should be read alongside the normalized earnings discussion.
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