Gerdau S.A. research snapshot
GGB AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Gerdau as a cyclical steel producer whose North American franchise, share buybacks, and recovering earnings estimates pushed the ADR to a 52-week high. The reference close was $4.96 on July 31, 2026, up about 23% from the $4.02 close on July 1, and within about 1% of the $5.02 intraday high. Using 1.975 billion shares from the 2025 Form 20-F, the calculated market capitalization is about $9.80 billion, while StockAnalysis.com shows $9.17 billion on its statistics page and $9.92 billion in its market-cap history, differences that come from share-count basis and timing. 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA rose to about R$3.0 billion, up 25% from 4Q25, with North America contributing 75% of consolidated adjusted EBITDA. Consensus 2026 adjusted EPS is near R$2.75, which implies a forward PE of about 8.6x at the current price, while trailing GAAP earnings still imply a much higher multiple. 2Q26 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, one day after this data cutoff. This GGB AI stock analysis uses scenarios instead of a certain price prediction and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$4.96
Market cap
$9.80 billion calculated market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Improving cyclical steel producer with strong North American execution, low leverage, and a thinner margin of safety after a 23% July rally
Trend status
Constructive: above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, up 64.8% over 52 weeks, and within about 1% of the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Gerdau produces long, special, flat, and structural steel and operates iron ore and renewable energy assets across Brazil, North America, and South America. Customers buy a critical industrial input for construction, automotive, agriculture, energy, distribution, and mining. | High |
| Moat | Scale, mini-mill know-how, regional plants, scrap and iron ore access, customer relationships, product mix, and renewable self-generation create a useful operating moat. Steel remains a competitive commodity, so switching costs and pricing power are limited. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Gustavo Werneck and the team are executing a R$4.7 billion 2026 capex plan, returning cash through dividends and buybacks, and closed the R$154 million Dona Francisca Energética hydro acquisition on July 20, 2026 to expand renewable self-generation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4.2% to R$69.859 billion, but GAAP net income to common fell about 69% to R$1.387 billion. 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA rose about 23% year over year and 25% from 4Q25 to about R$3.0 billion, and consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of R$2.75 implies a strong recovery. | High |
| Valuation | At $4.96, the standardized TTM data implies about 31.0x PE, 0.96x PB, and 19.1x P/FCF, while the forward multiple near 8.6x is cheap only if the consensus earnings recovery arrives. The valuation is cycle-dependent rather than clearly deep value. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock was above its 50-day average of $4.55 and its 200-day average of $4.06, up 64.8% over 52 weeks, with RSI near 67.05 and a 52-week range of $2.85 to $5.02. Momentum is strong but extended near the high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks include steel and scrap prices, Brazilian imports, tariffs and trade remedies, foreign exchange, high maintenance and expansion capex, working-capital swings, emissions rules, and the concentration of earnings in North America. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical facts and audited calculations have high data confidence. Forecast ranges, quote timing, and technical thresholds have lower confidence and should be refreshed after the August 4, 2026 earnings release. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. A diversified steel platform and low leverage support the case, but the recent rally has narrowed the margin of safety, and the investment case still depends on a cyclical earnings recovery that is not yet proven in cash flow. | Medium |
GGB AI stock forecast
The GGB AI stock forecast uses auditable scenarios around the $4.96 reference price. The model uses an implied 2026 EPS near $0.58, derived from the StockAnalysis.com forward PE of 8.57 at the $4.96 price, which embeds the consensus adjusted 2026 EPS estimate of about R$2.75. The three-year framework produced a bullish value of $8.80, a base value of $5.40, and a bearish value of $2.50. These are scenario outputs, not company guidance or guaranteed targets.
$7.50 to $9.30
More likely if North American shipments and pricing stay strong, the order backlog remains above 90 days, Brazilian imports become less disruptive, consensus earnings growth near 15% per year is delivered, and investors accept about a 10x normalized earnings multiple.
$4.60 to $6.20
More likely if 2026 earnings recover gradually, North America offsets weaker Brazil and South America markets, free cash flow normalizes after working-capital volatility, and the stock trades near an 8x normalized earnings multiple.
$2.00 to $2.90
More likely if steel prices and volumes weaken, imports remain elevated in Brazil, tariffs or FX reduce realized margins, capex and working capital absorb cash, and normalized EPS contracts near 10% with a 6x multiple.
GGB AI technical analysis
GGB AI technical analysis is constructive but extended at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31 reference close was $4.96, above the 50-day average of $4.55 and the 200-day average of $4.06, up 64.8% over 52 weeks, and within about 1% of the $5.02 intraday high. RSI near 67 points to strong momentum that is approaching overbought. This is a static snapshot and does not fetch request-time chart data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $4.96 | StockAnalysis.com listed a $4.96 regular-session close on July 31, 2026, with an intraday range of $4.88 to $5.02. |
| Near support | $4.72 to $4.77 | The July 22 to July 24 closes of $4.77 to $4.81 form a nearby breakout base. This is a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $4.55 to $4.64 | The 50-day moving average was about $4.55 and the July 21 close was $4.64. A move into this area would test the short-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $5.00 to $5.02 | The stock tagged $5.02 intraday on July 31 and the round $5.00 level is psychological resistance. A sustained close above it would confirm new highs. |
| Upper extension | Above $5.02 | A break above the 52-week high would open the next leg higher, but any extension should be confirmed by volume and steel fundamentals rather than assumed. |
| Momentum | RSI 67.05, strong but near overbought | StockAnalysis.com listed a 14-day RSI near 67.05, which is strong momentum approaching the 70 overbought threshold. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 15.46 million shares | The average-volume figure comes from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page. Compare any breakout with a fresh completed-session volume reading. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.90 and 52-week change +64.78% | The beta was close to the broad market, but the 52-week move was large for a cyclical steel ADR. Commodity and currency moves can still widen daily risk. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $4.55 | A sustained close below the cited 50-day average would weaken the constructive thesis; a close below the 200-day average near $4.06 would require a full review. |
GGB AI trading strategy
The GGB AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with fresh chart data, the August 4, 2026 earnings release, steel prices, regional shipments, Brazilian import data, exchange rates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation condition.
Watch for GGB to hold above the $4.72 to $4.77 area and then confirm a sustained close above $5.02 with volume above its recent average. Confirmation improves if the August 4, 2026 2Q26 report and the North American backlog support the earnings recovery.
A failed hold of the selected support zone or a close below the 50-day average near $4.55 should invalidate the short-term trend setup.
If GGB pulls back toward $4.55 to $4.64 without a new earnings or trade-policy shock, compare the price action with steel spreads, regional volumes, cash conversion, net leverage, and the Brazilian import environment.
Do not average down without a fixed loss budget because a commodity producer can fall even when long-term assets remain valuable.
Track North America shipments and order backlog, Brazil pricing and imports, South America volumes, the August 4, 2026 2Q26 report, adjusted EBITDA margin, standardized and company-defined FCF, capex versus the R$4.7 billion 2026 plan, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, dividends, buybacks, and FX.
Reduce confidence when higher reported EBITDA is not followed by free cash flow, when leverage rises, or when the stock price assumes a normalized cycle before the data confirms it.
Investment research summary
Gerdau turns scrap, iron ore, energy, and operating know-how into long, special, flat, and structural steel. Customers pay because steel is a critical input for construction, vehicles, agriculture, energy, distribution, and industrial equipment. The business is essential but still exposed to commodity pricing.
The moat is operational and regional rather than a network effect. Gerdau benefits from mini-mill scale, a broad plant footprint, scrap and iron ore access, customer relationships, higher-value special steel, North American trade protection, and renewable self-generation that lowers energy costs. Competitors can still replicate many products, so pricing power is not permanent.
The thesis fails if steel prices and volumes weaken, Brazilian imports keep pressuring domestic prices, tariffs or FX reduce realized margins, capex and working capital consume the cash return, or buybacks occur after the rally has already narrowed the discount. The key mistake would be treating the 1Q26 rebound and the July rally as proof of a full recovery before the August 4, 2026 2Q26 report confirms it.
Management is allocating capital across maintenance and expansion capex, dividends, buybacks, and a small renewable acquisition, while keeping net debt to adjusted EBITDA below its 1.5x long-term policy. The next test is the August 4, 2026 2Q26 report and whether the North American expansion and shareholder returns create per-share value through a full steel cycle.
Steel demand is supported by infrastructure, construction, energy investment, vehicle production, and decarbonization spending. Gerdau is investing in lower-carbon products, solar power, and renewable generation. The industry remains mature, capital intensive, emissions exposed, and vulnerable to global oversupply, so long-term demand does not remove cycle risk.
The standardized TTM figures make GGB look expensive on GAAP earnings because 2025 profitability was depressed, while consensus 2026 estimates imply a much lower forward multiple. That spread is the central valuation question. After a 23% July rally the margin of safety is thinner, and it improves only if the August 4, 2026 report and cash flow confirm the normalized case.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GGB reference price | $4.96 regular-session close on July 31, 2026, with a day range of $4.88 to $5.02 | StockAnalysis.com market overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.80 billion calculated as $4.96 times 1.975143891 billion shares; StockAnalysis.com shows $9.17 billion on the statistics page and $9.92 billion in the market-cap history, so share-count basis and timing differ | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.975143891 billion shares at December 31, 2025, comprising 717,363,819 common shares and 1,257,780,072 preferred shares, excluding treasury stock. StockAnalysis.com lists 1.97 billion shares with a 4.12% one-year decline. | Gerdau 2025 SEC Form 20-F and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 financial trend | Revenue R$69.859 billion, net income to common R$1.387 billion, EBITDA R$7.423 billion, and standardized FCF R$1.306 billion. Revenue rose 4.2% while net income to common fell about 69% year over year. | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Five-year operating trend | Revenue was R$78.345 billion in 2021, R$82.412 billion in 2022, R$68.916 billion in 2023, R$67.027 billion in 2024, and R$69.859 billion in 2025. Standardized profit margin fell from 19.86% to 2.03% across the same period. | StockAnalysis.com standardized annual financials | August 3, 2026 |
| 1Q26 operating results | Adjusted EBITDA about R$3.0 billion, up 25% from 4Q25 and about 23% year over year, with North America contributing 75% of consolidated adjusted EBITDA. Capex was R$1.1 billion, 27% below 4Q25 and in line with the R$4.7 billion 2026 guidance. | Gerdau 1Q26 results release and SEC 6-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Regional mix | North America represented 51.2% of FY2025 net sales at R$35.787 billion of R$69.859 billion. On a trailing twelve-month basis North America was about 52.6% of revenue. | StockAnalysis.com segment data and Gerdau 2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | At March 31, 2026, cash plus short-term investments were about R$5.590 billion. StockAnalysis.com total debt was R$15.375 billion, while the company reported gross debt of R$13.83 billion and net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.74x in 1Q26. | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Gerdau 1Q26 disclosures | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Using $4.96, TTM EPS $0.16, book value per share $5.14, FCF per share $0.26, and dividend $0.11, financial_rigor.py calculated PE 31.0x, PB 0.96x, P/FCF 19.1x, and dividend yield 2.2%. StockAnalysis.com lists PE 29.19, PB 0.90, P/FCF 18.03, and a 2.26% yield on slightly different per-share inputs. | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $4.55, 200-day moving average $4.06, RSI 67.05, beta 0.90, 20-day average volume 15.46 million shares, and 52-week range $2.85 to $5.02 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy from 5 analysts with an average price target of $5.57, low $5.28, median $5.50, and high $6.00, last updated June 25, 2026. JPMorgan raised its target to $6.00 and BTG Pactual upgraded to Buy in 2026. | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward estimates | Consensus FY2026 revenue of R$70.32 billion and adjusted EPS of R$2.75, implying about 8.6x forward earnings at the $4.96 price. 2Q26 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026. | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Dona Francisca Energética acquisition | Gerdau closed on July 20, 2026 the acquisition of the 23.03% equity stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A. held by CELESC for a total cash outlay of about R$154 million, expanding renewable self-generation in line with its decarbonization strategy. | Gerdau 6-K filed July 20, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bullish $8.80, base $5.40, and bearish $2.50 from a $4.96 price, $0.58 implied 2026 EPS, 15%/5%/-10% annual growth, and 10x/8x/6x target PE over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This GGB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if Gerdau fundamentals, steel prices, exchange rates, market price, policy, or investor sentiment change.
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