Gerdau S.A. research snapshot
GGB AI stock analysis currently sees Gerdau as a diversified steel producer with meaningful North American exposure, a broad mini-mill and mining footprint, and low reported net leverage, but also as a highly cyclical business whose earnings and free cash flow can change sharply with steel prices, imports, currency, and working capital. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the reference close was $4.50 on July 10. Using 1.975 billion outstanding shares, the mechanically calculated market capitalization is about $8.89 billion. A StockAnalysis market-cap snapshot showed $8.19 billion, an 8.52% timing variance that is disclosed rather than treated as a clean cross-check. This GGB AI stock analysis uses scenarios instead of a certain price prediction and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$4.50
Market cap
$8.89 billion calculated market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Cyclical steel producer with improving North American execution, low leverage, and a narrow margin of safety
Trend status
Mixed to constructive: near the 50-day average, above the 200-day average, and up 42.7% over 52 weeks
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Gerdau produces long, special, flat, and structural steel and operates iron ore assets across Brazil, North America, and South America. Customers buy a critical industrial input for construction, automotive, agriculture, energy, distribution, and mining. | High |
| Moat | Scale, mini-mill know-how, regional plants, scrap and iron ore access, customer relationships, and product mix create a useful operating moat. Steel remains a competitive commodity, so switching costs and pricing power are limited. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Gustavo Werneck and the team are balancing cost control, a 2026 capex plan of about R$4.7 billion, dividends, and a buyback program that had repurchased nearly 11.7 million shares by April 10, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4.2% to R$69.859 billion, but GAAP net income fell 69.2% to R$1.418 billion and standardized FCF fell to R$1.306 billion. 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA improved 23.2% year over year to R$2.958 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $4.50, the standardized TTM data implies about 28.12x PE, 0.88x PB, and 18.00x P/FCF. The forward case looks cheaper only if the expected earnings normalization arrives, so the valuation is cycle-dependent rather than clearly deep value. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock was near the 50-day average of $4.52, above the 200-day average of $3.93, with RSI near 53.57 and a 52-week range of $2.83 to $4.98. The setup is constructive but close to overhead resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include steel and scrap prices, Brazilian imports, tariffs and trade remedies, foreign exchange, high maintenance and expansion capex, working-capital swings, emissions rules, and the concentration of earnings in North America. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical facts and audited calculations have high data confidence. Forecast ranges, quote timing, and technical thresholds have lower confidence and should be refreshed after the next earnings release. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. A diversified steel platform and low leverage help, but the investment case depends on a cyclical earnings recovery that is not yet fully proven in cash flow. | Medium-low |
GGB AI stock forecast
The GGB AI stock forecast uses auditable scenarios around the $4.50 reference price. The model starts with an implied 2026 EPS near $0.52, derived from StockAnalysis average 2026 EPS of R$2.69 divided by the 1Q26 ending exchange rate of R$5.2194 per U.S. dollar. The financial rigor tool produced a three-year bullish value of $7.90, base value of $4.80, and bearish value of $2.30. These are scenario outputs, not company guidance or guaranteed targets.
$6.75 to $8.25
More likely if North American shipments and pricing stay strong, the order backlog remains above 90 days, Brazilian imports become less disruptive, normalized EPS grows near 15%, and investors accept about a 10x normalized earnings multiple.
$4.25 to $5.50
More likely if 2026 earnings recover gradually, North America offsets weaker Brazil and South America markets, free cash flow normalizes after working-capital volatility, and the stock trades near an 8x normalized earnings multiple.
$2.00 to $2.75
More likely if steel prices and volumes weaken, imports remain elevated in Brazil, tariffs or FX reduce realized margins, capex and working capital absorb cash, and normalized EPS contracts near 10% with a 6x multiple.
GGB AI technical analysis
GGB AI technical analysis is mixed to constructive at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The July 10 reference close was $4.50, the stock was close to the $4.52 50-day average, and it remained above the $3.93 200-day average. The 52-week gain and proximity to the $4.98 high support momentum, while the price is also close to an overhead decision zone. This is a static snapshot and does not fetch request-time chart data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $4.50 | Public.com reported a $4.50 regular-session close on July 10, 2026. StockAnalysis showed $4.41 as the prior close on its July 10 intraday snapshot, so quote timing is a source gap. |
| Near support | $4.07 to $4.14 | Recent StockAnalysis history showed closes near $4.07 on July 2 and $4.14 on June 25. This is a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $3.90 to $4.00 | The 200-day moving average was about $3.93 in the July 9 technical snapshot. A move into this area would test the longer-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $4.52 to $4.60 | The 50-day moving average was about $4.52. A sustained move above that band would improve the short-term trend if volume and steel fundamentals confirm it. |
| Upper resistance | $4.80 to $4.98 | The upper zone is based on the recent trading area and the 52-week high of $4.98. A break above it would require fresh confirmation rather than assumption. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.57, neutral to positive | StockAnalysis listed a 14-day RSI near 53.57, which is neither oversold nor strongly overbought in the cited snapshot. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 17.38 million shares | The average-volume figure comes from the StockAnalysis July 9 statistics snapshot. Compare any breakout with a fresh completed-session volume reading. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.90 and 52-week change +42.72% | The beta was close to the broad market, but the 52-week move was large for a cyclical steel ADR. Commodity and currency moves can still widen daily risk. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $3.93 | A sustained close below the cited 200-day average would weaken the constructive technical thesis and require a new review of price, volume, and fundamentals. |
GGB AI trading strategy
The GGB AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with fresh chart data, the next earnings release, steel prices, regional shipments, Brazilian import data, exchange rates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation condition.
Watch for GGB to reclaim and hold the $4.52 to $4.60 area, then challenge $4.80 to $4.98 with volume above its recent average. Confirmation improves if North American backlog, pricing, and adjusted EBITDA remain strong.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day average or a close below the selected support zone should invalidate the short-term trend setup.
If GGB pulls back toward $4.07 to $4.14 without a new earnings or trade-policy shock, compare the price action with steel spreads, regional volumes, cash conversion, net leverage, and the Brazilian import environment.
Do not average down without a fixed loss budget because a commodity producer can fall even when long-term assets remain valuable.
Track North America shipments and order backlog, Brazil pricing and imports, South America volumes, adjusted EBITDA margin, standardized and company-defined FCF, capex versus the R$4.7 billion 2026 plan, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, dividends, buybacks, and FX.
Reduce confidence when higher reported EBITDA is not followed by free cash flow, when leverage rises, or when the stock price assumes a normalized cycle before the data confirms it.
Investment research summary
Gerdau turns scrap, iron ore, energy, and operating know-how into long, special, flat, and structural steel. Customers pay because steel is a critical input for construction, vehicles, agriculture, energy, distribution, and industrial equipment. The business is essential but still exposed to commodity pricing.
The moat is operational and regional rather than a network effect. Gerdau benefits from mini-mill scale, a broad plant footprint, scrap and iron ore access, customer relationships, higher-value special steel, and North American trade protection. Competitors can still replicate many products, so pricing power is not permanent.
The thesis fails if steel prices and volumes remain weak, Brazilian imports keep pressuring domestic prices, tariffs or FX reduce realized margins, capex and working capital consume the cash return, or buybacks occur before the cycle and valuation are attractive. The key mistake would be treating a 1Q26 rebound as proof of a full recovery.
Management is allocating capital across maintenance and expansion capex, dividends, and buybacks while trying to preserve a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below its 1.5x long-term policy. The next test is whether the 2026 capex plan, the North American expansion, and shareholder returns create per-share value through a full steel cycle.
Steel demand is supported by infrastructure, construction, energy investment, vehicle production, and decarbonization spending. Gerdau is also investing in lower-carbon products and renewable power. The industry remains mature, capital intensive, emissions exposed, and vulnerable to global oversupply, so long-term demand does not remove cycle risk.
The standardized TTM figures make GGB look expensive on GAAP earnings because 2025 profitability was depressed, while normalized 2026 estimates imply a much lower forward multiple. That spread is the central valuation question. Margin of safety improves only if earnings recovery, cash flow, and capital returns confirm the normalized case.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GGB reference price | $4.50 regular-session close on July 10, 2026; StockAnalysis showed a $4.41 prior close in its intraday snapshot | Public.com and StockAnalysis market overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.89 billion calculated as $4.50 times 1.975143891 billion shares; StockAnalysis reported $8.19 billion, an 8.52% timing variance | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.975143891 billion shares at December 31, 2025, comprising 717,363,819 common shares and 1,257,780,072 preferred shares, excluding treasury stock | Gerdau 2025 SEC Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 financial trend | Revenue R$69.859 billion, net income R$1.418 billion, EBITDA R$7.423 billion, and standardized FCF R$1.306 billion. Revenue rose 4.2%, while net income fell 69.2% year over year. Gerdau reported company-defined 2025 FCF of about R$2.879 billion, so FCF comparisons require a definition check. | Gerdau 4Q25 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year operating trend | Revenue was R$78.345 billion in 2021, R$82.412 billion in 2022, R$68.916 billion in 2023, R$67.027 billion in 2024, and R$69.859 billion in 2025. EBITDA margin declined from 30.23% to 10.63% across the same period. | StockAnalysis standardized annual financials | July 12, 2026 |
| 1Q26 operating results | Net sales R$16.716 billion, adjusted EBITDA R$2.958 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin 17.7%, adjusted net income R$1.013 billion, and free cash flow R$16 million | Gerdau 1Q26 SEC 6-K results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Regional mix and operating signal | North America represented 51.2% of FY2025 net sales. In 1Q26, North America adjusted EBITDA was R$2.2 billion, up 23% from 4Q25, and the order backlog remained above 90 days. | Gerdau 2025 SEC Form 20-F and 1Q26 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | At 1Q26, cash plus short-term investments were about R$5.590 billion. Gerdau reported gross debt of R$13.83 billion and net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.74x. StockAnalysis total debt of R$15.375 billion includes a different debt definition. | Gerdau 1Q26 balance sheet, debt page, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Using $4.50, TTM EPS $0.16, book value per share $5.14, FCF per share $0.25, and dividend $0.11, financial_rigor.py calculated PE 28.12x, PB 0.88x, P/FCF 18.00x, and dividend yield 2.44%. | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $4.52, 200-day moving average $3.93, RSI 53.57, beta 0.90, 20-day average volume 17.38 million shares, and 52-week range $2.83 to $4.98 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bullish $7.90, base $4.80, and bearish $2.30 from a $4.50 price, $0.52 implied 2026 EPS, 15%/5%/-10% annual growth, and 10x/8x/6x target PE over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
This GGB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if Gerdau fundamentals, steel prices, exchange rates, market price, policy, or investor sentiment change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
