Greif, Inc. research snapshot
GEF AI stock analysis currently reads Greif, Inc. as a global industrial packaging company that used the sale of its Containerboard Business and timberlands assets to cut leverage from 3.1x to about 1.1x, raise its dividend by 10.7%, and start share repurchases, with Class A shares near $87.08 at the August 4, 2026 data cutoff giving a market capitalization near $4.95 billion. The July 28, 2026 Q3 fiscal 2026 report showed adjusted EPS of $1.61 versus a $1.13 consensus, adjusted EBITDA up 24.7% to $183.4 million, and guidance for fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA raised to $615 million to $635 million. The headline trailing P/E of about 4.7x is a mirage: TTM GAAP EPS of $18.42 is inflated by one-time divestiture gains, and the market is really paying about 20x the $4.33 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus, which is above the average analyst target near $78 to $83. The GEF AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a single price prediction, because the recent re-rating already prices in continued self-help improvement while global industrial demand remains subdued. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$87.08
Market cap
$4.95 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Improved industrial packaging business with stronger margins, a rebuilt balance sheet, and a 2.85% dividend, but the stock has run well above analyst targets and now trades near 20x forward adjusted earnings with overbought momentum
Trend status
Trading near the 52-week high of $88.50 after a strong Q3 fiscal 2026 report, well above the 50-day moving average near $71.91 and the 200-day near $68.35, with 14-day RSI near 79.60 in overbought territory
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Greif is a global leader in industrial packaging across four segments: Customized Polymer Solutions, Durable Metal Solutions, Sustainable Fiber Solutions, and Innovative Closure Solutions, serving chemicals, food and beverage, agriculture, pharma, and industrial customers in about 35 countries. Q3 fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 24.7% with margins up over 260 basis points on cost optimization and better price cost, despite subdued demand. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Narrow moat from scale, a global manufacturing network, long-standing customer relationships in regulated end markets, and proprietary closure and fiber technologies. Competitive pressure in commodity grades and customer consolidation keep pricing power limited, but the Envaplast acquisition and new logo wins in flavor and fragrance and pharma show commercial execution improving. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Ole Rosgaard has driven structural cost reduction, portfolio reshaping, and balance sheet repair since taking over in April 2022. The team achieved the $90 million run-rate cost savings target early, cut leverage to 1.1x, raised the dividend 10.7%, completed the $150 million buyback, approved a new $150 million repurchase plan, and closed the Envaplast bolt-on, with a target of at least $120 million in run-rate savings by fiscal 2027. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue TTM is near $4.30 billion, roughly flat on a continuing operations basis. Q3 fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA grew 24.7% to $183.4 million, net income excluding adjustments rose 87% to $93.3 million, and management guided fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $615 million to $635 million and adjusted free cash flow to $305 million to $325 million. Total debt fell to $1,030.4 million and leverage dropped to 1.1x from 3.1x. | High for reported results, medium for forward estimates |
| Valuation | At $87.08, the GAAP P/E of about 4.7x is meaningless because TTM GAAP EPS of $18.42 includes divestiture gains. On the $4.33 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus, the forward P/E is about 20x, the price to book is about 1.65x, and the price to sales is about 1.15x, all above the average analyst price target of $78 to $83. The dividend yield near 2.85% provides some income support. | Medium-high for math, medium for forward earnings |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis showed GEF near $87.08, above the 50-day moving average near $71.91 and the 200-day moving average near $68.35, with 14-day RSI near 79.60 in overbought territory and the stock near the 52-week high of $88.50 after a 40% gain over the last 52 weeks. Momentum is strong but extended. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are a prolonged industrial and chemical demand downturn, Middle East conflict disruptions to supply chains and demand, resin and fiber raw material cost inflation, the timing of URB price recognition versus the RISI index, acquisition integration, and the risk that the recent re-rating already prices in more self-help improvement than the company can deliver. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, price, market cap, dividend, guidance, and technical levels that were cross-validated across StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, the Q3 earnings release, and the earnings call. Medium for normalized earnings and forward scenarios because divestiture adjustments and cycle timing require judgment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The business has genuinely improved and the balance sheet is the strongest in years, but the stock trades above consensus analyst targets at about 20x forward adjusted earnings with overbought momentum, so the margin of safety is thin for a cyclical industrial packaging company. A better entry would come after a pullback toward the moving averages. | Low-medium |
GEF AI stock forecast
The GEF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $87.08 quote and the fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $4.33. A three-year model produced a bullish value near $110, a base value near $74, and a bearish value near $37. Because the current price already sits above the base-case anchor, the market is pricing in better-than-consensus execution. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$95 to $115
More likely if adjusted EPS grows about 12% a year from the $4.33 consensus, industrial and chemical demand recovers, URB price increases are recognized, bolt-on acquisitions like Envaplast compound, cost savings reach the $120 million run-rate target, and the market keeps the stock near 18x forward earnings, which the three-scenario model valued near $110.
$65 to $80
More likely if adjusted EPS grows about 7% a year, industrial demand stays subdued but stable, cost optimization and buybacks support per-share earnings, the dividend keeps growing, and the multiple settles near 14x forward earnings, which the model valued near $74. This sits below the current price and near the consensus analyst target of $78 to $83.
$35 to $45
More likely if a prolonged industrial and chemical downturn compresses volumes and prices, resin and fiber costs outrun pricing, Middle East disruption persists, or the market de-rates the stock toward 10x forward earnings on weaker profitability, which the model valued near $37.
GEF AI technical analysis
GEF AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed GEF near $87.08, above the 50-day moving average near $71.91 and the 200-day moving average near $68.35, with 14-day RSI near 79.60 in overbought territory, within a 52-week range of $55.75 to $88.50. The stock is testing the 52-week high after a strong Q3 fiscal 2026 report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.08 | StockAnalysis real-time quote for August 3, 2026, cross-validated with Yahoo Finance near $85.95 and MarketBeat near $87.15. |
| Near resistance | $87.99 to $88.50 | The August 3 session high near $87.99 and the 52-week high near $88.50 are the first upside levels. A sustained close above $88.50 would confirm a breakout to new highs. |
| Key resistance | $90.00 to $95.00 | Round numbers above the 52-week high define the broader resistance zone, though no consensus technical data is available at these levels from the sources used. |
| Near support | $83.98 to $84.00 | The August 3 session low near $83.98 is the first short-term support level after the post-earnings run. A break below it would signal momentum fading. |
| Key support | $71.91 to $75.00 | The 50-day moving average near $71.91 and the round $75 level are the first major downside reference. A close back below the 50-day would break the short-term uptrend. |
| 50-day SMA | $71.91 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average near $71.91, well below the current price, confirming strong short-term momentum. |
| 200-day SMA | $68.35 | StockAnalysis reported the 200-day moving average near $68.35, below the current price, confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 79.60 | RSI near 79.60 is in overbought territory above 70, which historically raises the chance of a short-term pullback or consolidation even in a strong uptrend. |
| Volume | About 250,000 to 260,000 shares | August 3 volume near 260,000 was in line with the 20-day average near 249,500. Above-average volume on a breakout above $88.50 would add conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.78 | The 5-year beta near 0.78 is below the market, but the stock still moved sharply on the Q3 report, so position sizing should account for earnings-driven gaps. |
| Trend strength | Price above all major moving averages | With price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the longer-term trend is up, but RSI above 79 suggests the move is stretched in the short term. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $83.98 | A close below the August 3 low near $83.98 would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 50-day moving average near $71.91 would signal a larger pullback. |
GEF AI trading strategy
The GEF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a mid-cap industrial packaging company that just delivered a strong quarter. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter report expected in late October 2026, industrial production data, URB and resin pricing trends, and clear invalidation levels.
GEF is in a strong uptrend with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A trend-following approach would wait for a breakout and hold above the $88.50 52-week high on volume, or for a pullback toward the $83.98 to $84.00 area that holds and resumes the trend, with RSI cooling from the overbought zone.
A close below the $83.98 August low would invalidate the short-term trend view. A close below the 50-day moving average near $71.91 would signal a deeper correction. Position size should account for the 40% run over the last 52 weeks.
With RSI near 79.60, chasing the stock here carries elevated short-term risk. A mean-reversion approach would watch for a pullback toward the $83.98 to $84.00 area, or toward the 50-day moving average near $71.91, and would only consider entry if Q3 momentum is confirmed by subsequent guidance or order flow.
The mean-reversion setup is invalidated if GEF closes below the 50-day moving average near $71.91 decisively, if industrial or chemical demand data turns negative, or if the market broadly de-rates packaging and materials stocks.
Track the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $615 million to $635 million and adjusted free cash flow guidance of $305 million to $325 million, the pace of the new $150 million buyback, dividend growth, URB price recognition, resin cost pass-throughs, Envaplast integration, and progress toward the $120 million cost savings run-rate target.
Reduce conviction if guidance is cut, if the buyback is paused, if RSI stays above 80 while the stock fails to clear $88.50, if analyst targets keep moving below the price, or if industrial demand indicators deteriorate further.
Investment research summary
Greif is paid to safely package and transport industrial essentials such as chemicals, food and beverage ingredients, pharma, and agricultural products in steel drums, plastic containers, fiber drums, IBCs, and closures across a global network of manufacturing and service sites.
The moat comes from a global manufacturing footprint in about 35 countries, long-standing relationships in regulated industries, proprietary fiber and polymer technologies, and scale in steel and plastic drums. It is narrow because commodity-grade segments face intense competition and customer consolidation, though the focus on new logos in flavor and fragrance, pharma, and agrochemicals is widening the defensible core.
The thesis fails if the recent margin and EBITDA improvement turns out to be mostly price-driven and unwinds when resin or fiber costs reset, if the long-awaited industrial recovery keeps being pushed out, if the stock loses the re-rating it earned on the divestiture and buyback story, or if acquisitions like Envaplast fail to compound at the stated criteria.
CEO Ole Rosgaard and CFO Larry Hilsheimer have reshaped the portfolio by selling the Containerboard Business and timberlands, cut leverage from 3.1x to about 1.1x, raised the dividend 10.7%, completed a $150 million buyback, approved another $150 million, and delivered the $90 million cost savings milestone early while guiding to at least $120 million of run-rate savings by fiscal 2027.
Industrial packaging demand moves with global industrial production, chemicals, food and beverage, and agriculture, and has been in a multi-year soft patch compounded by Middle East conflict disruption. Secular trends favor consolidation, sustainability, and a shift toward polymer-based and high-value closure solutions, which is where Greif is investing.
At about 20x the $4.33 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus, GEF trades above the average analyst target near $78 to $83 and above the base-case scenario value near $74 from the three-scenario model. The 2.85% dividend yield and a 1.1x leverage balance sheet are real positives, but the margin of safety is limited at the current price given the cyclical exposure and the extended technical position.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GEF price | $87.08 on August 3, 2026, up $0.53 or 0.61% on the day | StockAnalysis real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.95 billion, verified as $87.08 x 56.85 million total shares with 0.01% deviation; cross-validated with Yahoo Finance near $4.886 billion at 0.65% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 56.85 million total shares across classes; current Class A share class near 24.81 million | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue TTM | $4.30 billion, cross-validated with Yahoo Finance at 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 results | Net sales $1,165.6 million; net income excluding adjustments $93.3 million or $1.61 per diluted Class A share versus a $1.13 consensus; adjusted EBITDA $183.4 million, up 24.7%; reported net income $78.8 million or $1.37 per diluted share | Greif Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings release, July 28, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA raised to $615 million to $635 million from at least $610 million; adjusted free cash flow raised to $305 million to $325 million from at least $315 million; free cash flow conversion expected near 50% | Greif Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| GAAP and adjusted EPS | TTM GAAP EPS near $18.42, inflated by one-time divestiture gains; fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus near $4.33, fiscal 2027 near $4.68 | StockAnalysis statistics and forecast pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | GAAP P/E near 4.7x (distorted), forward P/E near 19x to 20x, price to sales near 1.15x, price to book near 1.65x, EV/EBITDA near 14.6x; financial_rigor.py verified forward P/E near 20.1x, P/B near 1.65x, P/S near 1.15x | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash near $288.5 million, total debt near $1.03 billion to $1.23 billion depending on basis, net debt near $741.9 million, leverage ratio 1.1x versus 3.1x a year earlier, debt to equity near 0.39 | Greif Q3 fiscal 2026 release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.48 annualized dividend for a 2.85% yield; quarterly dividend raised 10.7% to $0.62 per Class A share; payout ratio near 13.5%; ex-dividend date June 17, 2026 | StockAnalysis dividend page and Greif release | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | $55.75 to $88.50; beta near 0.78 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day SMA near $71.91, 200-day SMA near $68.35, 14-day RSI near 79.60, 20-day average volume near 249,500 shares | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | StockAnalysis: Hold from 6 analysts, average target $83.40, range $74 to $100. MarketBeat: Reduce from 5 analysts, average target $78.25, range $70 to $90. Recent actions include Wells Fargo to $90, BofA downgrade to Underperform at $70, Truist Hold at $78. | StockAnalysis forecast and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | Near 304,306 shares, about 0.54% of shares outstanding and 1.77% of float, about 1.29 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Employees and founding | About 12,000 employees, founded in 1877 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | financial_rigor.py using $87.08 and $4.33 adjusted EPS consensus produced about $110 bullish (12% growth, 18x), $74 base (7% growth, 14x), and $37 bearish (5% decline, 10x) over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 4, 2026 |
This GEF AI stock analysis is an informational tool based on public filings, earnings releases and calls, market data, technical indicators, and scenario math available at the stated data cutoff of August 4, 2026. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges can be wrong, and Greif stock can move sharply after quarterly earnings, industrial production data, packaging industry developments, raw material cost changes, or shifts in market sentiment toward industrial and materials stocks.
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