GCM Grosvenor Inc. research snapshot
GCMG AI stock analysis reads GCM Grosvenor as a solutions-led alternative asset management firm with approximately $91 billion in assets under management as of March 31, 2026, serving institutional and individual clients across private equity, infrastructure, credit, real estate, and absolute return strategies. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, GCMG traded at $13.17, up 5.53% on the trading day, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.66 billion across all share classes, a 3.65% dividend yield, a 26.9x trailing P/E, and a 14.5x forward P/E. The stock sits near the upper end of its 52-week range of $9.30 to $14.38, above both moving averages, supported by double-digit AUM growth, record fundraising including a $1.2 billion inaugural credit secondaries close, and a consensus analyst target near $15.00. This page uses scenario ranges and source-checked figures, not a stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$13.17
Market cap
~$2.66 billion (all share classes)
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Solutions-led alternative asset manager with improving AUM momentum and a constructive technical setup
Trend status
Up 5.53% on the day to $13.17, trading near the upper end of its 52-week range (high $14.38) and above both the 50-day ($12.06) and 200-day ($11.33) moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GCM Grosvenor manages about $91 billion in alternative assets for institutional and individual clients across private equity, infrastructure, credit, real estate, and absolute return strategies. Revenue is mostly recurring management fees plus variable performance fees. TTM revenue is about $552.85 million and TTM net income about $50.38 million as of the March 31, 2026 quarter. Client retention is strong due to long lock-ups and relationship depth, but fee rates face secular compression and the cost base is tied to headcount and compensation. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from more than 50 years of institutional relationships, an open-architecture platform across five asset classes, and expertise in fund selection, co-investment, direct investing, and secondaries. Switching costs are high because pension funds and endowments rarely replace core alternative partners. Competitors such as Hamilton Lane, StepStone, Blackstone, and KKR offer similar solutions, so the moat is moderate and fee pricing power is limited. | Low-medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Michael J. Sacks has led the firm for decades and is deeply tied to its institutional client base; Jon Levin is President and Fred Pollock is Chief Investment Officer. The management team has strong industry credibility and is targeting ambitious 2028 financial goals. Key-person risk exists because the business depends on senior relationship managers, and compensation expense is high relative to revenue. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown from $531.59 million in 2021 to $557.57 million in 2025, and net income jumped from $21.48 million in 2021 to $45.37 million in 2025, with TTM net income near $50.38 million. Q1 2026 net income of $5.47 million was below recent quarters because of lower performance fee recognition. Margins have improved over the past two years, free cash flow is strong at roughly $190 million TTM, and the dividend has grown each year, but Q2 2026 results due August 10, 2026 will test the trajectory. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $13.17, GCMG trades at about 26.9x trailing EPS, 30.6x book value, 4.8x revenue, and 14.5x forward earnings. The forward P/E is moderate relative to asset manager peers and the 3.65% dividend yield provides income. Market cap of about $2.66 billion is small relative to $91 billion in AUM, which highlights the thin fee margin and the small equity base relative to about $422 million of total debt. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | GCMG closed at $13.17 on August 3, 2026, up 5.53% on the day, near the upper end of its 52-week range of $9.30 to $14.38, and above the 50-day moving average of $12.06 and the 200-day moving average of $11.33. RSI near 59 suggests momentum is constructive but not yet overbought, and the stock is approaching the 52-week high of $14.38. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include fee compression across the alternative asset industry, key-person and talent retention, market cycle impact on performance fees and AUM flows, a compensation-heavy cost structure, net debt of roughly $258 million against a small equity base, dilution from share issuance (total shares outstanding up about 5.2% year over year), and competition from larger players such as Blackstone and KKR. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, audited market cap math, and valuation ratios; medium for forward scenarios and chart levels because AUM flows, fee rates, and share count basis are source-dependent. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
GCMG AI stock forecast
The GCMG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $13.17 quote. With TTM EPS of $0.49 and a three-year scenario framework, the bearish case lands near $7 to $9, the base case near $12 to $15, and the bullish case near $17 to $21, depending on AUM growth, fee margin stability, performance fee realization, and share count. Analyst targets range from $12.00 to $17.00 with a consensus Buy and an average near $15.00.
$17.00 to $21.00
More likely if GCMG keeps growing AUM double digits, executes its 2028 financial targets, stabilizes or expands fee margins, realizes consistent performance fees, and the market re-rates the stock toward a 25x forward earnings multiple. Recent signals include the $1.2 billion inaugural credit secondaries close in July 2026 and the Oppenheimer $17.00 target.
$12.00 to $15.00
More likely if GCMG compounds EPS at low double digits, keeps AUM near or above $90 billion, grows the dividend modestly, and trades within a 14x to 16x forward P/E range consistent with a small-cap asset manager. The $15.00 Piper Sandler target and the $14.00 TD Cowen target sit in this range.
$7.00 to $9.00
More likely if AUM declines from institutional redemptions, fee rates compress faster than cost cuts, performance fees dry up in a bear market, key investment professionals leave, the dividend is cut, or share dilution continues. A de-rate toward a 15x trailing multiple on stagnant earnings produces this range.
GCMG AI technical analysis
GCMG AI technical analysis reflects a stock that has broken out of its earlier range and now trades near the top of its 52-week band. As of the August 4, 2026 cutoff, GCMG closed at $13.17 on August 3, 2026, above the 50-day moving average of $12.06 and the 200-day moving average of $11.33, approaching the 52-week high of $14.38.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.17 | Quote snapshot around the August 4, 2026 cutoff placed GCMG at $13.17, up 5.53% on August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $12.00 to $12.60 | The $12.06 50-day moving average and the August 3 opening level of $12.60 form a near-term support zone. |
| Key support | $11.33 (200-day moving average) | The 200-day moving average near $11.33 is the key trend support. A decisive close below it would question the uptrend. |
| 52-week support | $9.30 (52-week low) | The 52-week low of $9.30 is the major downside level. A break below it would signal a new downtrend. |
| Near resistance | $13.29 to $13.40 | The August 3 intraday high of $13.29 is the near-term resistance before the 52-week high. |
| Key resistance | $14.38 (52-week high) | The 52-week high of $14.38 is the key breakout level. A close above it would confirm a new uptrend toward the mid-teens. |
| Momentum | Constructive, RSI near 59 | RSI near 59.32 per stockanalysis.com data reflects momentum that is positive but not overbought. |
| Volume | Average volume near 533,000 shares | The 20-day average volume is near 533,000 shares, with the latest session at about 649,000 shares. |
| Volatility | 52-week range of $9.30 to $14.38 | A 52-week range of about 55% from low to high is moderate for a small-cap asset manager, with a beta of 0.83. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.33 or above $14.38 | A close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the setup. A close above $14.38 would confirm a breakout. |
GCMG AI trading strategy
The GCMG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a small-cap alternative asset manager with a rising dividend and improving technical momentum. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current AUM data, fee rate trends, quarterly earnings, dividend announcements, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for GCMG to close above the $14.38 52-week high on above-average volume, which would confirm a breakout from the current range. A sustained move toward $16.00 to $17.00 would require continued AUM growth, stable fee margins, and positive quarterly results on August 10, 2026.
A close back below the $12.60 to $13.00 area after a failed breakout should invalidate the setup. Stop near $12.00 to manage downside risk.
If GCMG pulls back toward the $12.06 50-day moving average or the $11.33 200-day moving average, evaluate whether the dip is driven by market-wide selling or GCMG-specific news such as a miss in the August 10, 2026 report. The 3.65% dividend yield provides a backstop for income-oriented buyers near support.
Do not add to a losing position without a maximum position size rule. If the stock closes below the $11.33 200-day moving average the setup weakens, and a close below $9.30 invalidates it.
Track quarterly AUM and fee-paying AUM growth, management fee revenue, net flows, performance fee realization, compensation ratio, debt levels, dividend trajectory, and the share count trend. The Q2 2026 earnings release on August 10, 2026 and the 2028 financial targets are the key catalysts.
Reduce confidence if AUM growth slows for two consecutive quarters, fee rates drop meaningfully, the dividend is cut, or the share count keeps rising faster than earnings. Monitor management retention and key-person risk.
Investment research summary
GCM Grosvenor provides alternative investment management solutions to institutional and individual clients. Customers pay management fees for access to private equity, infrastructure, credit, real estate, and hedge fund strategies that are hard to access and evaluate independently, plus performance fees when portfolios perform.
The moat comes from more than 50 years of institutional relationships, an open-architecture multi-asset platform, and expertise in fund selection, co-investment, direct investing, and secondaries. Switching costs are high for pension funds and endowments, but the moat is moderate because fee rates face secular pressure and larger competitors offer similar services.
The thesis fails if AUM declines from institutional redemptions, fee compression outpaces cost reductions, key investment professionals depart, performance fees fail to materialize in a sustained bear market, the share count grows faster than earnings, or debt service costs strain the balance sheet and force a dividend cut.
Management should be judged by AUM and fee-paying AUM growth, fee margin stability, net client flows, performance fee generation, compensation cost control, dividend growth, and capital allocation between reinvestment, debt reduction, and share buybacks rather than dilution.
Alternative asset management benefits from secular growth as institutions increase allocations, with private credit and infrastructure among the fastest-growing segments. GCM Grosvenor is expanding into credit secondaries and individual investor solutions, but the industry also faces fee compression and competition from Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, StepStone, and Hamilton Lane.
At roughly 26.9x trailing earnings and 14.5x forward earnings, GCMG is not cheap on trailing earnings but appears reasonably valued on forward estimates, with a 3.65% dividend yield. The margin of safety is limited given the small market cap relative to AUM, the compensation-heavy cost structure, net debt against a small equity base, and industry fee pressure. A higher margin of safety would require a lower entry price or a clearer earnings growth trajectory.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCMG price | $13.17 | stockanalysis.com quote snapshot | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | ~$2.66 billion, verified as $13.17 x 202.05M total shares (all share classes) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 202.05M total shares; Class A public shares ~60.38M; float ~58.66M | stockanalysis.com statistics / Google Finance | Aug 4, 2026 |
| AUM | ~$91 billion (as of March 31, 2026) | GCM Grosvenor company website | Aug 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $552.85 million | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $50.38 million | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $0.49 | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.92 billion | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $164.39M cash, $422.24M total debt, net debt ~$258M | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.48 per share annual, 3.65% yield | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 14.45 | stockanalysis.com statistics | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Analyst price targets | Average $15.00, range $12.00 to $17.00, consensus Buy | stockanalysis.com / Google Finance analyst ratings | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $5.47 million | Google Finance income statement | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 10, 2026 (Q2 2026) | stockanalysis.com | Aug 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell GCMG stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. GCMG is subject to AUM flow risk, fee compression, key-person risk, market cycle risk, dilution, and debt service risk that can change the investment thesis rapidly. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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