Bullish case
$25 to $28 before dividends
More likely if FNB compounds EPS near 5% annually, credit stays clean, net interest margin expands, fee income grows, the bank executes strategic acquisitions well, and the market applies a P/E closer to 14x.
F.N.B. Corporation research snapshot
FNB AI Stock Analysis
FNB AI stock analysis reads F.N.B. Corporation as a solidly capitalized regional bank serving the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. Founded in 1864 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, FNB has built a diversified franchise across community banking, wealth management, and insurance. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, FNB traded near $18.62 with an independently verified market capitalization of approximately $6.63 billion. The setup is constructive: the stock carries a 2.79% dividend yield, trades at book value (P/B of 1.00x), and benefits from a lower P/E (11.49x) than both the sector and market averages. However, elevated short interest near 8.87% and the cyclical nature of regional bank earnings warrant caution. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$18.62
Market cap
$6.63 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Well-capitalized regional bank with growing fee income, improving NIM, and attractive valuation, offset by elevated short interest and credit-cycle uncertainty
Trend status
Constructive, trading near 52-week highs with price above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. FNB is a long-established NYSE-listed bank with decades of SEC filings, current earnings releases, analyst coverage from 6+ firms, and accessible data from Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat.
- bias Check
- The main AI research bias is overweighing the current near-52-week high and low P/E while underweighting the elevated short interest, regional bank sector headwinds from commercial real estate, net interest margin sensitivity, and the risk that valuation multiples stay compressed.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap, shares outstanding, TTM revenue, TTM net income, EPS, dividend yield, P/E, P/B, and basic valuation ratios. Medium for forward scenarios because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit costs, deposit competition, and regulatory capital rules.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. FNB has transparent public data and a solid capital position, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because the stock is a leveraged financial with macro sensitivity, elevated short interest, and earnings tied to the economic cycle.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FNB generates spread income and fee income through community banking (deposits, loans, mortgages), wealth management (trust, brokerage, advisory), and insurance (commercial, personal, reinsurance). | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing local relationships, core deposit funding, a 160+ year brand history, regulatory licensing, and switching costs in treasury and trust services, but customers can still shop rates and credit terms. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Vincent J. Delie Jr. has led FNB since 2013, emphasizing digital innovation, strategic acquisitions, talent development, and balanced capital allocation. Insiders have sold small amounts recently, which is common but worth monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $450 million with EPS of $0.38. TTM net income is $585 million. Net margin is 34.08% and ROE is 8.85%, broadly in line with peer regional banks. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.62, FNB trades at 11.49x TTM EPS, 1.00x book value, 12.41x FCF, with a 2.79% dividend yield. These multiples are below sector averages and near the low end of the bank valuation range. | High |
| Technical trend | Price near $18.62 is above the 52-week midpoint of $14.45 to $19.58. The stock is near resistance at the 52-week high, and the trend has been positive with YTD return of about 9.63%. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are commercial real estate credit exposure, net interest margin compression from deposit competition, elevated short interest at 8.87%, insider selling, and sector-wide regulatory pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because current facts are public and cross-checked via financial_rigor.py. Return confidence is lower because rates, credit, deposits, and sentiment can move bank stocks quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FNB has an attractive valuation, a sustainable dividend, and a solid capital base, but a buy decision depends on credit stability, deposit trends, NIM outlook, and whether the elevated short interest reflects fundamental concerns. | Medium |
FNB AI stock forecast
FNB AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FNB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because regional bank earnings depend on NIM, loan growth, deposit costs, credit losses, and capital management. Using the $18.62 reference price, $1.62 EPS, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $14.60 in a bear case, $21.20 in a base case, and $26.30 in a bullish case before dividends.
Base case
$20 to $23 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near 3% annually, credit remains manageable, NIM holds steady, deposits stay stable, and the market values FNB near 12x earnings.
Bearish case
$13 to $16 before dividends
More likely if credit losses rise, commercial real estate stress deepens, deposit costs squeeze NIM, short interest stays elevated, or the market applies a P/E near 9x to stressed earnings.
FNB AI technical analysis
FNB AI Technical Analysis
FNB AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, but the stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range. The 52-week range is $14.45 to $19.58. At $18.62, FNB is closer to resistance than support, so risk control matters for shorter-term positioning.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.62 | July 12, 2026 market price used for all valuation math at the data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $17.00 to $17.50 | This area near the July 2026 lows acts as the first support zone before the stock revisits the $16 levels. |
| Deeper support | $15.50 to $16.00 | This zone represents the lower part of the consolidation range and would test the resilience of the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $19.50 to $19.60 | This area brackets the 52-week high. A clean break above it with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| Upper resistance | $21.00 to $22.00 | This range aligns with the consensus analyst target. Reaching it likely requires earnings momentum and stable credit. |
| Moving averages | 50-day likely near $18.00, 200-day near $17.00 (estimated) | Price above both averages supports a constructive trend. The gap between them is narrowing, which can precede a directional move. |
| Momentum | RSI in neutral-to-slightly-warm territory | Trend momentum is positive but not overextended, meaning the stock has room to run if catalysts align. |
| Volume | Average volume near 5.2 million shares per day | Liquidity is sufficient for retail and institutional positioning. Watch for volume spikes around the July 16 earnings date. |
| Volatility | Watch July 16, 2026 earnings | The next confirmed earnings date is July 16, 2026, making Q2 results the main near-term catalyst for volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $16.00, then below $14.50 | A sustained break below $16.00 would reduce trend confidence. A break below the 52-week low of $14.45 would signal a bearish reversal. |
FNB AI trading strategy
FNB AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FNB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NIM, credit quality, deposits, loan growth, fee income, capital ratios, and sector sentiment.
Trend-following setup
Watch for FNB to hold above $17.00 and break above $19.60 with volume, supported by Q2 earnings confirming stable credit, steady NIM, and deposit stability.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $17.00 should reduce confidence, especially if guidance signals higher credit costs or tighter NIM.
Mean-reversion setup
If FNB pulls back toward $15.50 to $16.50 while credit and deposit fundamentals remain intact, compare the lower price with book value (~$18.62), dividend yield (~2.79%), and normalized EPS.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if short interest rises, credit quality deteriorates, or NIM guidance weakens.
Fundamental monitor
Track NIM, net interest income, average deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value, fee income, buyback authorization, and insider trading patterns.
Position sizing should reflect that FNB is a leveraged regional bank with macro sensitivity, not a high-predictability compounding business.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay FNB for deposit services, lending, mortgages, wealth management, insurance, and treasury solutions. The bank earns net interest income on funded assets plus fee income from trust, brokerage, and insurance operations across its Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.
Moat
FNB benefits from 160+ years of brand recognition in its core markets, local relationship banking, core deposit funding, and regulatory licensing. The moat is real but limited: regional banking is competitive on rates, service, and convenience, and customers can switch.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if commercial real estate credit losses rise sharply, deposit competition squeezes margins, net charge-offs normalize above historical levels, short interest reflects unreported problems, or regulators demand more capital.
Management
CEO Vincent Delie has led FNB for over a decade, building a track record of digital investment, strategic branch expansion, and culture building. The key-person question is whether the bank maintains credit discipline and deposit quality as the cycle matures.
Industry trend
Regional banks remain essential for small-business lending, commercial credit, and local deposit relationships in the US. The headwinds are technology-driven deposit migration, large-bank dominance, fintech competition, and rate-cycle pressure on NIM.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $18.62, FNB trades at book value with a P/E of 11.49x and a 2.79% dividend yield. The valuation prices in some caution but offers upside if normalized EPS grows toward the base case. Margin of safety improves if credit stays clean and deposits hold.
Source-backed data
FNB Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.62 as of July 12, 2026 | Yahoo Finance FNB summary quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $6.63 billion using $18.62 price and ~356 million common shares | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 356 million, cross-checked against MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance | Yahoo Finance statistics and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $1.72 billion TTM revenue from community banking, wealth management, and insurance segments | Yahoo Finance FNB statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $585 million TTM net income, representing a 34.08% net margin | Yahoo Finance FNB statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $450 million revenue and $0.38 EPS for the quarter ended March 2026 | F.N.B. Corporation Q1 2026 earnings release via MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital and credit quality | Debt-to-equity ratio 0.29, ROE 8.85%, ROA 1.17%, and P/B of 1.00x | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and liquidity | Total cash of $2.76 billion (mrq) providing a solid liquidity buffer | Yahoo Finance FNB statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.49x TTM PE, 1.00x PB, 12.41x P/FCF, and 2.79% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py verification | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 6 analysts, average price target of $20.80, high $22.00, low $19.00 | MarketBeat FNB analyst forecasts | July 12, 2026 |
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This FNB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if interest rates, credit losses, deposit costs, capital rules, short interest, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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