Bullish case
$26 to $30 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 8% annually, net interest margin stabilizes or expands, credit stays clean, wealth and fee income keep growing, buybacks continue, and the market applies a P/E closer to 14x.
F.N.B. Corporation research snapshot
FNB AI Stock Analysis
FNB AI stock analysis reads F.N.B. Corporation as a solidly capitalized regional bank serving the Mid-Atlantic region. Founded in 1864 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, FNB runs community banking, wealth management, and insurance. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, using the July 31, 2026 close, FNB traded at $18.92 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $6.73 billion. The setup is mixed but constructive: Q2 2026 delivered record revenue of $462.7 million and EPS of $0.42, up 17% year over year, the dividend was raised, and the stock crossed back above its 200-day moving average. The offsetting factors are a lowered full-year net interest income outlook on deposit competition and tighter loan spreads, a BofA downgrade to Neutral, and short interest near 8.9% of float. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$18.92
Market cap
$6.73 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Record Q2 revenue and 17% EPS growth from a well-capitalized Mid-Atlantic regional bank, offset by lowered net interest income guidance, deposit competition, and elevated short interest
Trend status
Constructive, price above its 200-day moving average after a late-July cross and within about 4% of the 52-week high of $19.59
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. FNB is a long-established NYSE-listed bank with decades of SEC filings, current earnings releases, analyst coverage from 6+ firms, and accessible data from Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, and StockAnalysis.
- bias Check
- The main AI research bias is overweighting the record revenue, 17% EPS growth, and low P/E while underweighting the lowered NII guidance, deposit competition, commercial real estate runoff, BofA downgrade, and the risk that the elevated short interest reflects fundamental concerns.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap, shares outstanding, TTM revenue, TTM net income, EPS, dividend yield, P/E, P/B, and basic valuation ratios. Medium for forward scenarios because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit costs, deposit competition, and regulatory capital rules.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. FNB has transparent public data and a solid capital position, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because the stock is a leveraged financial with macro sensitivity, elevated short interest, and earnings tied to the economic cycle.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FNB generates spread income and fee income through community banking (deposits, loans, mortgages), wealth management (trust, brokerage, advisory), and insurance (commercial, personal, reinsurance). | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing local relationships, core deposit funding, a 160+ year brand history, regulatory licensing, and switching costs in treasury and trust services, but customers can still shop rates and credit terms. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Vincent J. Delie Jr. has led FNB since 2013, emphasizing digital innovation, strategic acquisitions, talent development, and balanced capital allocation. Q2 execution was strong with record revenue, 17% EPS growth, buybacks, and a dividend increase, though one insider sale of $352,070 in June is worth monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was a record $462.7 million with EPS of $0.42, up 17% year over year. TTM net income is about $604 million with a 34.58% net margin and ROE near 9%. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.92, FNB trades at 11.26x TTM EPS, 1.00x book value, with a 2.75% dividend yield. These multiples are below the finance sector and market averages and near the low end of the bank valuation range. | High |
| Technical trend | Price near $18.92 is above the 50-day moving average ($18.39) and the 200-day moving average ($17.73). The stock crossed above the 200-day MA in late July and sits within about 3.5% of the 52-week high of $19.59. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are a lowered NII outlook, deposit competition, commercial real estate runoff, short interest at 8.89% of float, a BofA downgrade to Neutral, and potential Basel III capital increases of 80 to 100 basis points. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because current facts are public and cross-checked via financial_rigor.py. Return confidence is lower because rates, credit, deposits, and sentiment can move bank stocks quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FNB has an attractive valuation, a sustainable dividend, and a solid capital base, but a buy decision depends on whether NII guidance stabilizes, credit stays clean, deposits hold, and the elevated short interest reflects sentiment rather than unreported problems. | Medium |
FNB AI stock forecast
FNB AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FNB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because regional bank earnings depend on NIM, loan growth, deposit costs, credit losses, and capital management. Using the $18.92 reference price and $1.68 TTM EPS, a three-year scenario model maps to roughly $15 in a bear case, $22 in a base case, and $30 in a bullish case before dividends.
Base case
$19 to $23 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near 4% annually, deposit competition eases, NIM holds near 3.25%, commercial real estate runoff stabilizes, and the market values FNB near 12x earnings.
Bearish case
$13 to $17 before dividends
More likely if credit losses rise, deposit costs squeeze NIM further, net interest income guidance keeps falling, short interest stays elevated, Basel III forces more capital, or the market applies a P/E near 9x.
FNB AI technical analysis
FNB AI Technical Analysis
FNB AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 31, 2026 close. The 52-week range is $14.45 to $19.59 and the stock sits above both its 50-day moving average ($18.39) and its 200-day moving average ($17.73), crossing above the longer-term average in late July. At $18.92, FNB is closer to resistance than support, so risk control matters for shorter-term positioning.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.92 | July 31, 2026 close used for all valuation math at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $18.39 area (50-day moving average) | This zone near the 50-day moving average is the first support level; holding it keeps the recent uptrend intact. |
| Next support | $17.73 area (200-day moving average) | The 200-day moving average is a widely watched trend line. A hold here would preserve the medium-term constructive signal. |
| Deeper support | $17.00 to $17.25 | This zone brackets the 50-day range low of $17.08 and would test the resilience of the recent advance. |
| Near resistance | $19.40 to $19.59 | This area brackets the 52-week high. A clean break above it with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| Upper resistance | $20.50 to $22.00 | This range aligns with analyst price targets, including $20.50 at Truist, $21 at Wells Fargo and Argus, and $22 at Piper Sandler. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $18.39, 200-day near $17.73 | Price is above both averages after crossing above the 200-day MA on July 27, 2026, which supports a constructive trend. |
| Momentum | Positive but not overextended | The late-July cross above the 200-day moving average is a bullish signal, and the stock is still below the 52-week high with room to run. |
| Volume | Average volume near 5.4 million shares per day | Liquidity is sufficient for retail and institutional positioning. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt. |
| Volatility | Watch October 15, 2026 earnings | The next confirmed earnings date is October 15, 2026 (estimated), making Q3 results the main near-term catalyst for volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.00, then below $16.00 | A sustained break below $17.00 would reduce trend confidence. A break below the 52-week low of $14.45 would signal a bearish reversal. |
FNB AI trading strategy
FNB AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FNB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NIM, credit quality, deposits, loan growth, fee income, capital ratios, and sector sentiment.
Trend-following setup
Watch for FNB to hold above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and break above $19.59 with volume, supported by Q3 earnings confirming stable credit, NIM stabilization near 3.25%, and deposit stability.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $17.73 (200-day MA) should reduce confidence, especially if guidance signals higher credit costs or a further NII reduction.
Mean-reversion setup
If FNB pulls back toward $17.00 to $17.75 while credit and deposit fundamentals remain intact, compare the lower price with book value (~$18.87), dividend yield (~2.75%), and normalized EPS of about $1.68.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if short interest rises, credit quality deteriorates, or NII guidance weakens further.
Fundamental monitor
Track NIM, net interest income, average deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, allowance coverage, tangible book value, fee income, buyback authorization, insider trading patterns, and any final Basel III capital rule.
Position sizing should reflect that FNB is a leveraged regional bank with macro sensitivity, not a high-predictability compounding business.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay FNB for deposit services, lending, mortgages, wealth management, insurance, and treasury solutions. The bank earns net interest income on funded assets plus fee income from trust, brokerage, and insurance operations across its Mid-Atlantic footprint.
Moat
FNB benefits from 160+ years of brand recognition in its core markets, local relationship banking, core deposit funding, and regulatory licensing. The moat is real but limited: regional banking is competitive on rates, service, and convenience, and customers can switch.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if net interest income guidance keeps falling on deposit competition, commercial real estate losses rise, net charge-offs normalize above historical levels, short interest reflects unreported problems, or final Basel III rules force a meaningfully higher capital buffer.
Management
CEO Vincent Delie has led FNB for over a decade, building a track record of digital investment, strategic branch expansion, and culture building. Q2 2026 execution was strong, but the key-person question is whether the bank keeps credit discipline and deposit quality as the cycle matures.
Industry trend
Regional banks remain essential for small-business lending, commercial credit, and local deposit relationships in the US. The headwinds are technology-driven deposit migration, large-bank dominance, fintech competition, and rate-cycle pressure on NIM.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $18.92, FNB trades at book value with a P/E of 11.26x and a 2.75% dividend yield. The valuation prices in some caution but offers upside if normalized EPS grows toward the base case. Margin of safety improves if NIM stabilizes and credit stays clean.
Source-backed data
FNB Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.92 as of July 31, 2026 close | Yahoo Finance FNB summary quote and MarketBeat | July 31, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $6.73 billion using $18.92 price and ~356 million common shares | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 31, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 356 million, cross-checked against MarketBeat and StockAnalysis | Yahoo Finance statistics and MarketBeat | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $1.75 billion TTM from community banking, wealth management, and insurance segments | Yahoo Finance FNB statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $604 million TTM net income, representing a 34.58% net margin | Yahoo Finance FNB statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Record revenue of $462.7 million, EPS of $0.42 (up 17% YoY), and net income of $149 million for the quarter ended June 2026 | F.N.B. Corporation Q2 2026 earnings release via PR Newswire | July 31, 2026 |
| Capital and credit quality | Tangible common equity ratio near 9%, return on average tangible common equity of 14%, tangible book value of $12.24 (up 10%), debt-to-equity ratio 0.29, ROE near 9%, ROA 1.20%, NIM 3.25%, net charge-offs 19 bps | GuruFocus Q2 2026 earnings call highlights and Yahoo Finance | July 31, 2026 |
| Cash and liquidity | Total cash of $2.38 billion (mrq) providing a solid liquidity buffer | Yahoo Finance FNB statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.26x TTM PE, 1.00x PB, and 2.75% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py verification | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Moderate Buy from 6 analysts with an average target of $20.70 to $20.94, high $22.00, low $19.00; recent moves include a BofA downgrade to Neutral and a Truist Buy at $20.50 | MarketBeat FNB analyst forecasts and StockAnalysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 52-week range $14.45 to $19.59, 50-day moving average $18.39, 200-day moving average $17.73 | American Banking News and MarketBeat chart data | July 28, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.89% of float sold short with a days-to-cover ratio of 5.44, up 0.15% month over month | MarketBeat FNB short interest | July 31, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This FNB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if interest rates, credit losses, deposit costs, capital rules, short interest, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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