FS KKR Capital Corp. research snapshot
FSK AI stock analysis currently reads FS KKR Capital Corp. as a large publicly traded business development company that invests primarily in senior secured debt and subordinated debt of private middle-market U.S. companies, externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, FSK closed at $10.80 on July 10 with a verified market capitalization of about $3.02 billion based on approximately 280.07 million shares outstanding. TTM net investment income per Barchart was about $0.90, annual investment income (sales) was roughly $1.52 billion, and GAAP annual net income was approximately $11 million after realized and unrealized portfolio changes. The quarterly dividend of $0.57 (annualized $2.28) was reduced to $0.42 in Q1 2026 (annualized $1.68), and the stock trades at 0.56x book value, reflecting deep market concern about portfolio credit quality and dividend sustainability. Multiple securities class action lawsuits have been filed against the company alleging disclosure violations. The company recently announced a $150 million convertible preferred stock issuance in connection with strategic value enhancement actions. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$10.80 NYSE reference as of July 10, 2026
Market cap
$3.02 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Large publicly traded BDC externally managed by FS/KKR with a wide NAV discount, a securities class action lawsuit, and material portfolio credit and dividend coverage risk
Trend status
Price recovered from the 52-week low of $9.72 in March 2026 toward $10.80 in July but remains 52% below the 52-week high of $22.68, deep in a structural downtrend
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FSK originates and manages a diversified portfolio of private middle-market credit investments, primarily senior secured and subordinated debt. The BDC model generates net investment income from the spread between portfolio yield and borrowing costs, but the externally managed structure means fees reduce net returns to shareholders. | Medium-high |
| Moat | FS/KKR benefits from the KKR brand, access to deal flow through KKR's platform, scale advantages in sourcing and underwriting middle-market loans, and long-standing relationships with private equity sponsors. However, BDC lending is a competitive market with many well-capitalized participants, and the moat is primarily relational and scale-based rather than proprietary. | Medium |
| Management | The company is externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor, an affiliate of KKR. The external management structure creates inherent conflicts of interest around fee structures, incentive alignment, and capital allocation decisions. The recent dividend reduction, NAV decline, securities class action, and preferred issuance raise questions about management and board stewardship. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Annual investment income was approximately $1.52 billion. GAAP annual net income was roughly $11 million after significant unrealized depreciation on the portfolio. TTM NII per Barchart was about $0.90. The quarterly dividend was cut from $0.57 to $0.42 in early 2026. NAV per share has declined from recent levels, and Q1 2026 EPS of $0.42 missed the $0.44 consensus. | Medium-high for reported data |
| Valuation | At $10.80, the exact valuation check gave 12.00x TTM NII, 0.56x book value, 3.58x price/cash flow, and a 15.56% forward dividend yield. The three-scenario model produced about $15.20 (bullish), $10.40 (base), and $7.20 (bearish) over three years. The 0.56x P/B ratio signals deep market skepticism about NAV accuracy or portfolio quality. | High for math, medium-low for forward assumptions |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a deep structural downtrend from the 52-week high of $22.68. The recent recovery from $9.72 to $10.80 is modest relative to the 52% annual decline. The stock is well below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. First resistance is near $10.93 and first support near $10.62. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. Key risks include portfolio credit deterioration and non-accruals, dividend sustainability and further cuts, the wide NAV discount persisting or widening, the securities class action outcome, externally-managed structure conflicts, interest rate sensitivity, leverage and refinancing risk, and the potential for further dilution from the preferred issuance. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the price snapshot, market-cap verification, P/B ratio, dividend history, and transparent three-scenario math. Medium for forward earnings and NAV because portfolio marks, non-accrual rates, and realized gains/losses depend on private company performance in an uncertain credit environment. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. The wide discount to NAV could represent a value opportunity if the portfolio performs better than the market expects, or it could correctly price further deterioration. The dividend cut, class action, and external management structure add layers of uncertainty that are difficult to resolve from public financial data alone. | Low-medium |
FSK AI stock forecast
The FSK AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario range based on TTM NII of $0.90, growth assumptions of 12%, 5%, and 0%, and terminal P/E assumptions of 12x, 10x, and 8x. It produced target prices of about $15.20, $10.40, and $7.20. The range is highly sensitive to whether portfolio credit quality stabilizes or deteriorates, the trajectory of NII and dividend coverage, the outcome of the securities class action, and whether the discount to NAV narrows or widens.
$13 to $17
More likely if portfolio credit quality stabilizes, non-accruals decline, NII grows near 12% as interest income improves, the class action is resolved favorably, the company's strategic actions narrow the NAV discount, and the market reapplies a 12x multiple to improved earnings power. The model point is about $15.20.
$9 to $12
More likely if NII grows at about 5%, portfolio credit trends are stable to slightly positive, the dividend remains covered at the current $0.42 quarterly rate, the class action proceeds with moderate uncertainty, and the stock continues to trade near a 10x NII multiple. The model point is about $10.40.
$6 to $8
More likely if portfolio credit quality deteriorates, non-accruals rise, NII growth stagnates, the dividend must be cut further, the class action results in material liability, the discount to NAV widens further, and the market applies an 8x multiple to flat earnings. The model point is about $7.20.
FSK AI technical analysis
FSK AI technical analysis shows a stock in a deep structural downtrend with a modest short-term recovery as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close of $10.80 is 52% below the 52-week high of $22.68 and only about 11% above the 52-week low of $9.72. Barchart shows first resistance at $10.93 and first support at $10.62. The stock remains well below key moving averages from the past 12 months, and the overall Barchart technical opinion rates it as a Strong Sell. The recent recovery from the $9.72 low needs to break above $11.24 to gain meaningful upside momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $10.80 | Barchart and Google Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026. After hours traded at $10.64. |
| Near support | $10.43 to $10.62 | Barchart first support is at $10.62 and second support at $10.43. The stock has held above $9.72 (52-week low) in recent months, but support levels are thin. |
| Key support | $9.72 | The 52-week low of $9.72 from March 2026 is the most important support. A break below this level would represent a new multi-year low and significant technical deterioration. |
| Near resistance | $10.93 to $11.06 | Barchart first resistance is at $10.93 and second resistance at $11.06. The stock has struggled to reclaim the $11 level since dropping below it in early 2026. |
| Key resistance | $11.24 to $11.73 | Barchart third resistance is at $11.24. The 3-month high is $11.73 from May 2026. A sustained move above this area would be a meaningful technical improvement. |
| Momentum | 1-month change -1.82%; 3-month change +6.61% | The 1-month trend is slightly negative after a modest 3-month recovery from the March low. Momentum is weak and the stock lacks a clear directional catalyst. |
| Volume | 2.26M on July 10; 2.85M 20-day average | Volume on July 10 was below the 20-day average of 2.85M, suggesting the recent price increase lacked strong institutional conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.68 (Google) / 0.82 (Barchart 60-month); implied volatility 37.56% | Beta is below 1.0, but the implied volatility of 37.6% reflects the market pricing significant event risk around earnings, portfolio valuations, and the class action. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $9.72 or above $11.73 | A break below the 52-week low of $9.72 would signal further downside. A sustained recovery above the 3-month high of $11.73 would suggest the downtrend is maturing. |
FSK AI trading strategy
The FSK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price and volume confirmation with NII trends, NAV changes, portfolio credit quality (non-accrual rates), dividend coverage, and the class action status because a BDC's price can diverge from fair value for extended periods when structural uncertainty exists.
Given the structural downtrend, a trend-following approach would remain on the sidelines until the stock establishes a clear uptrend. Watch for a sustained move above $11.73 (3-month high) on above-average volume, confirmed by stabilizing or improving NAV, stable or growing NII, and no further negative class action developments.
If already holding, a close below $9.72 or a further dividend cut should reduce position size. Do not treat the 0.56x P/B ratio as an automatic floor. Value traps in BDCs can persist and deepen when portfolio credit is deteriorating.
A pullback toward the $9.72 to $10.00 area could present a watchlist entry if NII coverage of the dividend remains adequate (above 1.0x), non-accruals are stable or declining, and the class action does not introduce new material liability. The wide NAV discount is a potential catalyst for mean reversion if management executes strategic actions successfully.
The mean-reversion case depends on fundamental stability, not just price. If NII declines further, the dividend is cut again, or non-accruals rise meaningfully, the discount to NAV can widen further. Size for the possibility of a multi-quarter recovery timeline.
Track quarterly NII per share, NAV per share, non-accrual rate as a percentage of portfolio at cost and fair value, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend coverage ratio, portfolio yield, new investment activity, and class action developments. Monitor the $150 million convertible preferred issuance terms and any further strategic actions.
Override a bullish chart or valuation signal if NII coverage of the dividend falls below 1.0x, non-accruals increase meaningfully, or the company announces a further dividend reduction. The class action lawsuit is a material binary risk that can affect the stock regardless of operating performance.
Investment research summary
FS KKR Capital is a BDC that pools shareholder capital and borrowed money to make loans to middle-market private companies. Customers (portfolio companies) pay interest on loans, and FSK profits from the spread between loan yields and its own borrowing costs. The business model depends on credit selection, portfolio diversification, and access to leverage. Revenue is recurring through interest payments, but results are exposed to credit losses from the underlying private companies.
The moat comes from the KKR affiliation and brand, which provides access to deal flow, underwriting expertise, and sponsor relationships that smaller BDCs cannot match. Scale gives FSK cost of capital advantages and portfolio diversification. The moat can narrow if KKR shifts focus away from the BDC, if competition for middle-market loans compresses spreads, or if a cycle of credit losses impairs the company's cost of capital and access to debt markets.
The thesis can fail through a sustained period of credit deterioration in the middle-market loan portfolio that drives non-accruals higher, further NAV erosion, another dividend cut, and a wider discount to book value. The externally managed structure means fees continue regardless of performance, creating a headwind for shareholder returns during downturns. The securities class action could result in material liability or distract management. The preferred stock issuance adds leverage and dilutive complexity.
FSK is externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor, a KKR affiliate. The external management structure is common among BDCs but creates inherent conflicts: the manager earns fees based on managed assets and income, which may incentivize asset growth over per-share value creation. The management team faces critical tests in the current environment: stabilizing portfolio credit, preserving the dividend, resolving the class action, and executing the strategic value enhancement plan without excessive dilution.
The BDC industry benefits from a structural shift of corporate borrowing from banks to direct lenders, driven by regulatory constraints on bank lending and the growth of private equity. This secular trend supports demand for middle-market credit. However, the industry is cyclical and exposed to credit losses during economic downturns. Higher interest rates have improved BDC income but also increased borrowing costs and raised the risk of portfolio company distress. Private credit market conditions remain uncertain as the asset class has not been tested by a severe credit cycle.
At $10.80, the exact valuation check gave 12.00x TTM NII, 0.56x book value, 3.58x price/cash flow, and a 15.56% forward dividend yield. The three-scenario model produced about $15.20, $10.40, and $7.20 after three years. The base case is slightly below the current price, and the discount to book value of 44% provides a statistical margin of safety, but only if the NAV is accurate and the portfolio does not suffer further losses. The margin of safety from the dividend yield must be weighed against the risk of further cuts.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSK closing price | $10.80 on July 10, 2026 | Barchart and Google Finance closing quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.025 billion from $10.80 x 280.07 million shares | financial_rigor.py calculation using Barchart and Google Finance shares data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 280.07 million as of most recent filing | Google Finance and Barchart (cross-validated, 0.0% deviation) | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM Net Investment Income per share | Approximately $0.90 per Barchart EPS metric (BDC NII standard) | Barchart fundamentals | July 12, 2026 |
| Annual Investment Income (Sales) | Approximately $1.52 billion | Barchart annual sales data | July 12, 2026 |
| GAAP Annual Net Income | Approximately $11 million (net of unrealized portfolio depreciation) | Barchart annual income data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $304 million revenue, $0.42 EPS (missed $0.44 consensus) | Google Finance and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.42 per quarter ($1.68 annualized, forward yield 15.56%). Cut from $0.57/quarter in early 2026 | Barchart dividend data and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Book Value per Share | Implied BVPS of $19.29 from P/B ratio of 0.56x | Barchart P/B ratio and financial_rigor.py calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.00x P/E (TTM NII), 0.56x P/B, 3.58x P/FCF, 27.96% FCF yield, 15.56% forward dividend yield from exact verification inputs | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation using Barchart and Google Finance TTM inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week high $22.68, 52-week low $9.72, beta 0.68-0.82, implied volatility 37.56%, average volume 2.85M | Barchart and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from 12 analysts; average price target $11.00 (range $9.50 to $11.00) | Barchart analyst ratings and Google Finance analyst page | July 12, 2026 |
| Price performance | 1-month -1.82%, 3-month +6.61%, 52-week -49.98% | Barchart price performance data | July 12, 2026 |
| Securities class action status | Multiple class action lawsuits filed alleging securities law violations between May 2024 and February 2026; lead plaintiff deadline was July 6, 2026 | Barchart news feed and multiple law firm announcements | July 12, 2026 |
| Industry context | Business Development Company (BDC); externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor; SIC-9999 Nonclassifiable Establishments | Barchart industry classification | July 12, 2026 |
This FSK AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if portfolio credit quality, non-accrual rates, interest rates, dividend policy, leverage, regulatory developments, class action outcomes, or market valuation of the BDC sector change.
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