FS KKR Capital Corp. research snapshot
FSK AI stock analysis currently reads FS KKR Capital Corp. as a large publicly traded business development company that invests primarily in senior secured debt and subordinated debt of private middle-market U.S. companies, externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, FSK closed at $11.09 on August 3 with a verified market capitalization of about $3.11 billion based on approximately 280.07 million shares outstanding. TTM net investment income per Barchart was about $0.90, annual investment income (sales) was roughly $1.52 billion, and GAAP annual net income was approximately $11 million after realized and unrealized portfolio changes. The quarterly dividend is $0.42 (annualized $1.68, forward yield about 15.2%), cut from $0.57 per quarter in early 2026, and the stock trades at 0.56x book value, reflecting persistent market concern about portfolio credit quality and dividend sustainability. Securities class action lawsuits continue with the July 6, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline now passed. The $150 million convertible preferred stock issuance closed on June 29, 2026 in connection with strategic value enhancement actions, and Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release before the market opens on August 6, 2026. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$11.09 NYSE close on August 3, 2026, up 4.92% on the day
Market cap
$3.11 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
A recovering but still uncertain BDC: externally managed by FS/KKR, trading near 0.56x book value with a wide NAV discount, a dividend cut to $0.42 per quarter, ongoing securities class action litigation, and material portfolio credit risk
Trend status
Recovering from the 52-week low of $9.72 in March 2026 to $11.09 in early August, with the Barchart technical opinion improving from Strong Sell to Weak Buy, but the stock still trades roughly 46% below the 52-week high of $20.49
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FSK originates and manages a diversified portfolio of private middle-market credit investments, primarily senior secured and subordinated debt. The BDC model generates net investment income from the spread between portfolio yield and borrowing costs, but the externally managed structure means fees reduce net returns to shareholders. | Medium-high |
| Moat | FS/KKR benefits from the KKR brand, access to deal flow through KKR's platform, scale advantages in sourcing and underwriting middle-market loans, and long-standing relationships with private equity sponsors. However, BDC lending is a competitive market with many well-capitalized participants, and the moat is primarily relational and scale-based rather than proprietary. | Medium |
| Management | The company is externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor, an affiliate of KKR. The external management structure creates inherent conflicts of interest around fee structures, incentive alignment, and capital allocation decisions. The dividend reduction, NAV decline, securities class action, and the preferred issuance raise questions about management and board stewardship. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Annual investment income was approximately $1.52 billion. GAAP annual net income was roughly $11 million after significant unrealized depreciation on the portfolio. TTM NII per Barchart was about $0.90. The quarterly dividend is $0.42 (annualized $1.68), cut from $0.57 in early 2026. Most recent quarterly EPS was $0.41 reported May 11, 2026, with Q2 2026 consensus near $0.41 to $0.42. NAV per share has declined from earlier levels. | Medium-high for reported data |
| Valuation | At $11.09, the exact valuation check gave 11.73x TTM P/E per Barchart (about 12.3x computed on $0.90 NII), 0.56x book value, 1.95x price/sales, 3.58x price/cash flow, and a forward dividend yield of about 15.2% to 15.9%. The three-scenario model produced about $15.20 (bullish), $10.40 (base), and $7.20 (bearish) over three years. The 0.56x P/B ratio signals deep market skepticism about NAV accuracy or portfolio quality. | High for math, medium-low for forward assumptions |
| Technical trend | The technical picture improved. The stock recovered from the March 2026 low of $9.72 to $11.09, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, and the Barchart technical opinion moved from Strong Sell to Weak Buy with relative strength crossing above 50%. Longer-term structure remains weak: the stock is still roughly 46% below the 52-week high of $20.49 and below its 150-day and 200-day moving averages. First resistance is near $11.28 and first support near $10.74. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. Key risks include portfolio credit deterioration and non-accruals, dividend sustainability and further cuts, the wide NAV discount persisting or widening, the securities class action outcome, externally managed structure conflicts, interest rate sensitivity, leverage and refinancing risk, and dilution from the preferred issuance. Implied volatility of 44.5% and an expected 18-day range of $10.37 to $11.81 indicate the market still prices meaningful event risk around the August 6 earnings report. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the price snapshot, market-cap verification, P/B ratio, dividend rate, and transparent three-scenario math. Medium for forward earnings and NAV because portfolio marks, non-accrual rates, and realized gains and losses depend on private company performance in an uncertain credit environment. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. The wide discount to NAV could represent a value opportunity if the portfolio performs better than the market expects, or it could correctly price further deterioration. The dividend cut, class action, external management structure, and the upcoming Q2 earnings report add layers of uncertainty that are difficult to resolve from public financial data alone. | Low-medium |
FSK AI stock forecast
The FSK AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario range based on TTM NII of $0.90, growth assumptions of 12%, 5%, and 0%, and terminal P/E assumptions of 12x, 10x, and 8x. It produced target prices of about $15.20, $10.40, and $7.20. The range is highly sensitive to whether portfolio credit quality stabilizes or deteriorates, the trajectory of NII and dividend coverage, the outcome of the securities class action, whether the discount to NAV narrows or widens, and the results of the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report.
$13 to $17
More likely if portfolio credit quality stabilizes, non-accruals decline, NII grows near 12% as interest income improves, the class action is resolved favorably, the company's strategic actions narrow the NAV discount, and the market reapplies a 12x multiple to improved earnings power. The model point is about $15.20, about 37% above the August 3 close.
$9 to $12
More likely if NII grows at about 5%, portfolio credit trends are stable to slightly positive, the dividend remains covered at the current $0.42 quarterly rate, the class action proceeds with moderate uncertainty, and the stock continues to trade near a 10x NII multiple. The model point is about $10.40, slightly below the August 3 close.
$6 to $8
More likely if portfolio credit quality deteriorates, non-accruals rise, NII growth stagnates, the dividend must be cut further, the class action results in material liability, the discount to NAV widens further, and the market applies an 8x multiple to flat earnings. The model point is about $7.20, about 35% below the August 3 close.
FSK AI technical analysis
FSK AI technical analysis shows a stock recovering from a deep structural downtrend with an improving short-term setup as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff. The August 3 close of $11.09 is up 6.33% over the past month and roughly 14% above the 52-week low of $9.72, but still about 46% below the 52-week high of $20.49. Barchart shows first resistance at $11.28 and first support at $10.74, with the technical opinion improving from Strong Sell to Weak Buy as relative strength crossed above 50%. The price sits above its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but below its 150-day and 200-day moving averages, so the short and medium-term trend has turned constructive while the long-term trend remains negative.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.09 | Barchart and Google Finance closing quote for August 3, 2026, up 4.92% on the day. After hours traded at $11.10. |
| Near support | $10.74 to $10.38 | Barchart first support is at $10.74 and second support at $10.38. The stock has held above $9.72 (52-week low) since late June, and support levels have firmed as the stock trades above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. |
| Key support | $9.72 | The 52-week low of $9.72 from March 2026 is the most important support. A break below this level would represent a new multi-year low and significant technical deterioration. |
| Near resistance | $11.28 to $11.46 | Barchart first resistance is at $11.28 and second resistance at $11.46. The stock needs to clear this zone to confirm the recovery extends beyond the early July range. |
| Key resistance | $11.73 to $11.82 | The 3-month high is $11.73 from May 2026 and Barchart third resistance is at $11.82. A sustained move above this area would be a meaningful technical improvement and a challenge to the downtrend. |
| Moving averages | Above 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day; below 150-day and 200-day | Barchart opinion flags Buy signals on the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages and on the 20-50, 20-100, and 50-100 crossovers, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages and their crossovers remain Sell signals. |
| Momentum | 1-month change +6.33%; 3-month change -3.98% | The 1-month trend is positive after a modest recovery from the March low, and relative strength just crossed above 50%, indicating support for a short-term bullish bias. The 3-month change is still slightly negative. |
| Volume | 3.89M on August 3; 20-day average 2.33M | Volume on August 3 was well above the 20-day average of about 2.33M, suggesting the up move on August 3 had institutional participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.68 (Google) / 0.82 (Barchart 60-month); implied volatility 44.52% | Beta is below 1.0, but implied volatility of 44.5% with an IV percentile of 72% reflects the market pricing significant event risk around the August 6 earnings report, portfolio valuations, and the class action. The expected 18-day range is $10.37 to $11.81. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $10.20 or above $11.82 | A break below third support at $10.20 would weaken the recovery and put the $9.72 low back in play. A sustained close above third resistance at $11.82 would confirm the downtrend is maturing. |
FSK AI trading strategy
The FSK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price and volume confirmation with NII trends, NAV changes, portfolio credit quality (non-accrual rates), dividend coverage, and the class action status because a BDC's price can diverge from fair value for extended periods when structural uncertainty exists. The August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report is the most immediate catalyst.
The short-term trend has turned constructive, but the long-term trend is still negative, so a trend-following approach would wait for confirmation. Watch for a sustained move above $11.73 to $11.82 (3-month high and Barchart third resistance) on above-average volume, confirmed by stabilizing or improving NAV, stable or growing NII, and no further negative class action developments.
If already holding, a close below $10.20 or a further dividend cut should reduce position size. Do not treat the 0.56x P/B ratio as an automatic floor. Value traps in BDCs can persist and deepen when portfolio credit is deteriorating.
A pullback toward the $10.38 to $10.74 area could present a watchlist entry if NII coverage of the dividend remains adequate (above 1.0x), non-accruals are stable or declining, and the class action does not introduce new material liability. The wide NAV discount is a potential catalyst for mean reversion if management executes strategic actions successfully.
The mean-reversion case depends on fundamental stability, not just price. If NII declines further, the dividend is cut again, or non-accruals rise meaningfully, the discount to NAV can widen further. Size for the possibility of a multi-quarter recovery timeline.
Track the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report, quarterly NII per share, NAV per share, non-accrual rate as a percentage of portfolio at cost and fair value, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend coverage ratio, portfolio yield, new investment activity, and class action developments. Monitor the terms of the closed $150 million convertible preferred issuance and any further strategic actions.
Override a bullish chart or valuation signal if NII coverage of the dividend falls below 1.0x, non-accruals increase meaningfully, or the company announces a further dividend reduction. The class action lawsuit is a material binary risk that can affect the stock regardless of operating performance.
Investment research summary
FS KKR Capital is a BDC that pools shareholder capital and borrowed money to make loans to middle-market private companies. Customers (portfolio companies) pay interest on loans, and FSK profits from the spread between loan yields and its own borrowing costs. The business model depends on credit selection, portfolio diversification, and access to leverage. Revenue is recurring through interest payments, but results are exposed to credit losses from the underlying private companies.
The moat comes from the KKR affiliation and brand, which provides access to deal flow, underwriting expertise, and sponsor relationships that smaller BDCs cannot match. Scale gives FSK cost of capital advantages and portfolio diversification. The moat can narrow if KKR shifts focus away from the BDC, if competition for middle-market loans compresses spreads, or if a cycle of credit losses impairs the company's cost of capital and access to debt markets.
The thesis can fail through a sustained period of credit deterioration in the middle-market loan portfolio that drives non-accruals higher, further NAV erosion, another dividend cut, and a wider discount to book value. The externally managed structure means fees continue regardless of performance, creating a headwind for shareholder returns during downturns. The securities class action could result in material liability or distract management. The closed $150 million preferred issuance adds leverage and dilutive complexity.
FSK is externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor, a KKR affiliate. The external management structure is common among BDCs but creates inherent conflicts: the manager earns fees based on managed assets and income, which may incentivize asset growth over per-share value creation. The management team faces critical tests in the current environment: stabilizing portfolio credit, preserving the dividend, resolving the class action, and executing the strategic value enhancement plan without excessive dilution.
The BDC industry benefits from a structural shift of corporate borrowing from banks to direct lenders, driven by regulatory constraints on bank lending and the growth of private equity. This secular trend supports demand for middle-market credit. However, the industry is cyclical and exposed to credit losses during economic downturns. Higher interest rates have improved BDC income but also increased borrowing costs and raised the risk of portfolio company distress. Private credit market conditions remain uncertain as the asset class has not been tested by a severe credit cycle.
At $11.09, the exact valuation check gave 11.73x TTM P/E per Barchart (about 12.3x computed on $0.90 NII), 0.56x book value, 1.95x price/sales, 3.58x price/cash flow, and a forward dividend yield of about 15.2% to 15.9%. The three-scenario model produced about $15.20, $10.40, and $7.20 after three years. The base case is slightly below the current price, and the discount to book value of about 44% provides a statistical margin of safety, but only if the NAV is accurate and the portfolio does not suffer further losses. The margin of safety from the dividend yield must be weighed against the risk of further cuts.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSK closing price | $11.09 on August 3, 2026 (up 4.92% on the day) | Barchart and Google Finance closing quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.106 billion from $11.09 x 280.07 million shares | financial_rigor.py calculation using Barchart and Google Finance shares data | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 280.07 million as of most recent filing | Google Finance and Barchart (cross-validated, 0.0% deviation) | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM Net Investment Income per share | Approximately $0.90 per Barchart EPS metric (BDC NII standard) | Barchart fundamentals | August 4, 2026 |
| Annual Investment Income (Sales) | Approximately $1.52 billion ($1,519 million) | Barchart annual sales data | August 4, 2026 |
| GAAP Annual Net Income | Approximately $11 million (net of unrealized portfolio depreciation) | Barchart annual income data | August 4, 2026 |
| Most recent quarterly results | $0.41 EPS reported May 11, 2026; Q2 2026 consensus $0.41 to $0.42 | Barchart and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.42 per quarter ($1.68 annualized, forward yield about 15.2% to 15.9%). Cut from $0.57/quarter in early 2026 | Barchart dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| Book Value per Share | Implied BVPS of $19.80 from P/B ratio of 0.56x | Barchart P/B ratio and financial_rigor.py calculation | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.73x P/E ttm (Barchart, about 12.3x computed on $0.90 NII), 0.56x P/B, 1.95x P/S, 3.58x P/FCF, about 27.9% FCF yield, about 15.2% to 15.9% forward dividend yield | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation using Barchart and Google Finance TTM inputs | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week high $20.49, 52-week low $9.72, beta 0.68-0.82, implied volatility 44.52%, IV percentile 72%, 20-day average volume 2.33M | Barchart and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from 12 analysts; average price target about $11.00 (range $9.50 to $11.00) | Barchart analyst ratings and Google Finance analyst page | August 4, 2026 |
| Price performance | 1-month +6.33%, 3-month -3.98%, 52-week -45.90% | Barchart price performance data | August 4, 2026 |
| Securities class action status | Multiple class action lawsuits alleging securities law violations between May 2024 and February 2026 continue; lead plaintiff deadline of July 6, 2026 has passed | Barchart news feed and multiple law firm announcements | August 4, 2026 |
| Strategic actions and earnings date | $150 million convertible preferred stock issuance closed June 29, 2026; Q2 2026 results scheduled before market open on August 6, 2026 | Barchart news feed and PR Newswire announcements | August 4, 2026 |
| Industry context | Business Development Company (BDC); externally managed by FS/KKR Advisor; SIC-9999 Nonclassifiable Establishments | Barchart industry classification | August 4, 2026 |
This FSK AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if portfolio credit quality, non-accrual rates, interest rates, dividend policy, leverage, regulatory developments, class action outcomes, the Q2 2026 results reported August 6, 2026, or market valuation of the BDC sector change.
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