JFrog Ltd. research snapshot
FROG AI stock analysis currently reads JFrog as a high-quality software supply chain platform whose Artifactory system of record sits deep inside enterprise CI/CD, security, and AI binary workflows. Q1 2026 revenue rose 26% to $154.0 million, cloud revenue jumped 50% to $78.9 million and crossed 51% of total sales, trailing four-quarter net dollar retention hit 120%, and free cash flow was $37.3 million. The caution is price: FROG closed at $90.74 on July 10, 2026, with a $10.99 billion market cap, after a sharp re-rating toward the 52-week high zone. The FROG AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and depends on whether AI coding agents, security attach, Enterprise+ expansion, and free cash flow conversion can keep supporting premium software multiples.
Current price
$90.74 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$10.99 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality software supply chain platform with strong cloud inflection, but valuation already prices a long AI usage runway
Trend status
Strong multi-month uptrend above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, cooling from a July 6, 2026 all-time closing high near $98.10
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | JFrog sells a hybrid and multi-cloud software supply chain platform centered on Artifactory as the system of record for binaries, packages, security scanning, and AI assets used from development to production. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from deep CI/CD embedding, high switching costs around binary repositories, Enterprise+ platform expansion, security attach, and rising AI catalog and registry use cases. It can narrow if hyperscalers or source-control platforms commoditize package registries. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founder Shlomi Ben Haim has led as CEO since 2008. Capital allocation is improving via a first $300 million buyback authorization, while share-based compensation and key-person dependence still matter. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $531.8 million, up 24%, with $142.3 million free cash flow. Q1 2026 grew 26% with 21.4% non-GAAP operating margin, 24.2% free cash flow margin, and $741.2 million of cash, cash equivalents, and investments. | High |
| Valuation | At $90.74, FROG screened near 20.7x FY2025 sales, about 17.4x FY2026 guided midpoint revenue, about 95.5x FY2026 non-GAAP EPS midpoint of $0.95, and about 77x FY2025 free cash flow per share in the audited model. TTM GAAP EPS remained negative. | High |
| Technical trend | FROG traded above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a large multi-month advance, with RSI firm near the low-60s and price below the early July peak near $98 to $99. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are valuation compression after the 2026 rally, slower AI usage growth, competition from GitHub and cloud-native registries, still-negative GAAP profitability, stock-based compensation dilution, security product execution, and any reset in software multiples. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because company filings and coverage are current. Predictive confidence is only medium because software multiples and AI consumption narratives can reset quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FROG looks like a durable DevSecOps compounder with a real cloud inflection, but the stock is not a high-certainty bargain unless revenue growth and free cash flow compound fast enough to absorb the current multiple. | Medium |
FROG AI stock forecast
The FROG AI stock forecast uses the $90.74 July 10, 2026 close, JFrog full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $0.95, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $56.90, a base value near $114.90, and a bullish value near $198.30 before dilution, buybacks, or future multiple changes outside the stated assumptions. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$185 to $210
More likely if FY2026 revenue tracks above the $628 million to $632 million guidance range, cloud growth stays near or above the raised 33% to 35% baseline, net dollar retention holds near 118% or better, $1 million-plus ARR customers keep compounding, free cash flow margin stays near the mid-20% area, and investors keep paying a premium multiple near 95x forward earnings.
$105 to $125
More likely if revenue compounds around the high-teens to low-20% rate, non-GAAP EPS grows near 20% annually for three years, cloud remains the majority of revenue, operating leverage improves gradually, and FROG holds a premium but lower multiple near 70x forward earnings.
$50 to $65
More likely if AI coding agent consumption disappoints, customers optimize overages, security attach stalls, competitive registries pressure pricing, GAAP losses and share dilution weigh on sentiment, or the stock re-rates toward 45x forward earnings.
FROG AI technical analysis
FROG AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Macrotrends and StockAnalysis showed a $90.74 close on July 10, 2026, after an all-time closing high of $98.10 on July 6, 2026 and a 52-week range of $34.05 to $99.22. TipRanks listed the 20-day simple moving average near $84.78, the 50-day near $74.41, the 100-day near $59.22, and RSI near 63.07. Price remains above major averages, but the stock has pulled back from the upper end of its range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $90.74 | July 10, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $89 to $91 | This zone sits near the recent pullback area and the 10-day moving-average region from TipRanks, so a hold would keep short-term structure intact. |
| First trend support | $84 to $87 | TipRanks listed the 20-day simple moving average near $84.78 and the 20-day exponential average near $86.41. |
| Deeper support | $74 to $76 | The 50-day simple and exponential moving average references sit in this zone. |
| Major support | $57 to $60 | The 100-day and longer-term average references, including Barchart 200-day context near the high-$50s, define a larger trend reset zone. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $99 | Recent price action stalled under the early July peak and the 52-week high area near $99.22. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $84.78, 50-day $74.41, 100-day $59.22 | Price above all major moving averages supports the trend read but also shows how far FROG has moved from long-term support after the 2026 rally. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63 | RSI is firm but not at a classic overbought threshold after the pullback from the July peak. Stochastic and MACD signals were mixed across vendors. |
| Volume | Average volume near 3.0 million shares, with elevated 10-day activity during the breakout phase | Yahoo and market data references suggest breakout or breakdown attempts should be judged against recent average volume near 3 million shares. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $34.05 to $99.22 | The wide range and multi-month advance imply large daily swings remain normal for FROG after the re-rating. |
| Invalidation | Close below $84, then below $74 | A 20-day break would weaken near-term momentum, while a 50-day break would challenge the trend-following setup. |
FROG AI trading strategy
The FROG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links technical levels with cloud growth, net dollar retention, large-customer expansion, free cash flow conversion, and valuation discipline.
Watch for FROG to hold above the $84 to $87 moving-average zone and reclaim the $95 to $99 resistance area on above-average volume while the next earnings update confirms mid-20% or better revenue growth, cloud majority mix, strong $100k-plus and $1 million-plus customer growth, and free cash flow strength.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $84 should reduce setup confidence, especially if management commentary points to weaker AI usage, lower net dollar retention, or slower security attach.
If FROG pulls back toward the $74 to $87 moving-average band without a negative revenue, RPO, or free cash flow reset, compare the new price with FY2026 guidance, TTM free cash flow, and peer DevSecOps and software multiples.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if cloud growth decelerates sharply, competitive registry pressure rises, gross margin falls below the guided low-80% non-GAAP band, or the stock remains above a valuation range that cannot be supported by cash flow growth.
Track Q2 and FY2026 guidance, cloud revenue share, net dollar retention, RPO, $100k-plus and $1 million-plus ARR customers, Enterprise+ mix, non-GAAP operating margin, free cash flow margin, cash and investments, buyback activity, stock-based compensation, and diluted share count.
Position sizing should reflect that FROG is a strong software business priced for sustained excellence after a large re-rating, not a guaranteed AI infrastructure winner.
Investment research summary
Customers pay JFrog to store, govern, secure, and distribute software binaries and AI assets across development, security, and production. The core value is a trusted system of record for artifacts so teams can ship faster without losing control of the software supply chain.
JFrog benefits from high switching costs around Artifactory, platform expansion into security and MLOps, hybrid and multi-cloud deployment, and growing enterprise standardization. The moat can narrow if GitHub, GitLab, Sonatype, or hyperscaler registries become good enough at package, security, and AI catalog workflows.
The thesis fails if AI coding agent demand proves cyclical, customers optimize cloud overages, competitive free or bundled registries cap pricing, stock-based compensation dilutes per-share value, or valuation compresses faster than cash flow compounds after the 2026 re-rating.
Shlomi Ben Haim co-founded JFrog and has been CEO since 2008. Founder continuity and the first $300 million buyback authorization are positives, while key-person dependence, equity dilution, and execution on AI and security product expansion remain open governance and capital-allocation questions.
Software supply chain security, DevSecOps, continuous delivery, and AI agent-generated code all increase the volume and risk of binaries moving through enterprises. JFrog is positioned in a long-duration trend, but the same trend attracts source-control platforms, security vendors, and cloud providers.
The stock price implies that JFrog can keep compounding high-teens to mid-20% growth, expand non-GAAP margins, and convert free cash flow for years. The audited base-case scenario leaves some upside from $90.74 toward about $115, while the bull case needs sustained premium multiples near 95x forward earnings. Margin of safety is limited after the rally unless growth beats the guide or the multiple compresses less than feared.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $90.74 close on July 10, 2026 | Macrotrends FROG stock price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $10.99 billion as of July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis FROG market cap page | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding used for market cap check | About 121.12 million | Yahoo Finance FROG key statistics and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $154.0 million, up 26% year over year | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cloud revenue | $78.9 million, up 50% year over year, 51% of total revenue | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow and cash | $37.3 million free cash flow and $741.2 million cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of March 31, 2026 | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Customer and retention metrics | 120% trailing four-quarter NDR, 80 customers above $1 million ARR, 1,225 customers above $100k ARR, RPO $574.9 million | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 company outlook | Revenue $628 million to $632 million and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.93 to $0.97 | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and free cash flow | $531.8 million revenue and $142.3 million free cash flow | JFrog FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow cross-check | About $0.142 billion | Macrotrends FROG free cash flow history | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP earnings context | TTM GAAP EPS about -$0.51 and TTM revenue about $563.4 million | Yahoo Finance FROG statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 20-day SMA about $84.78, 50-day SMA about $74.41, 100-day SMA about $59.22, RSI about 63.07 | TipRanks FROG technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range and recent high | 52-week range $34.05 to $99.22, all-time closing high $98.10 on July 6, 2026 | Macrotrends FROG stock price history | July 12, 2026 |
This JFrog stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if JFrog fundamentals, market multiples, interest rates, or investor sentiment change.
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