JFrog Ltd. research snapshot
FROG AI stock analysis as of August 3, 2026 reads JFrog as a high-quality software supply chain platform whose Artifactory system of record sits deep inside enterprise CI/CD, security, and AI binary workflows. Q1 2026 revenue rose 26% to $154.0 million, cloud revenue jumped 50% to $78.9 million and reached 51% of total sales, trailing four-quarter net dollar retention hit 120%, and free cash flow was $37.3 million. The caution is price and timing. FROG closed at $79.79 on July 31, 2026, about 19% below the $98.10 all-time closing high set on July 6, 2026, pressured by a mid-July zero-day speculation tied to an OpenAI disclosure, a Morgan Stanley downgrade, and a broad software selloff, even as several banks raised targets to $100 to $105. Market cap is $9.66 billion, the forward P/E near 84x is still rich, and Q2 2026 results are due August 6, 2026. The FROG AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and depends on whether cloud growth, security attach, Enterprise+ expansion, free cash flow conversion, and the post-correction multiple can support the price through that report.
Current price
$79.79 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$9.66 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality software supply chain platform with strong cloud momentum, but the stock has corrected about 19% from its early July high and still trades near 84x forward earnings before an August 6, 2026 report
Trend status
Pullback within a longer uptrend. Price fell from the July 6, 2026 all-time closing high near $98.10 to $79.79, now below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above the 100-day and 200-day averages, with RSI near 45 and ADX showing a short-term bearish direction
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | JFrog sells a hybrid and multi-cloud software supply chain platform centered on Artifactory as the system of record for binaries, packages, security scanning, and AI assets used from development to production. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from deep CI/CD embedding, high switching costs around binary repositories, Enterprise+ platform expansion, security attach, and rising AI catalog and registry use cases. It can narrow if hyperscalers or source-control platforms commoditize package registries. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founder Shlomi Ben Haim has led as CEO since 2008. Capital allocation improved with a $300 million buyback authorization, and Q1 2026 execution was strong, while share-based compensation, net share dilution, and key-person dependence still matter. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $531.8 million, up 24%, with $142.3 million free cash flow. Q1 2026 grew 26% with 21.4% non-GAAP operating margin, 24% free cash flow margin, 120% net dollar retention, and $741.2 million of cash, cash equivalents, and investments. | High |
| Valuation | At $79.79, FROG screened near 17.2x TTM sales, about 84x FY2026 non-GAAP EPS midpoint of $0.95, and about 64x TTM free cash flow in the audited model. The 2026 price correction reduced the entry price, but the forward multiple remains well above the high-growth software median. TTM GAAP EPS remained negative. | High |
| Technical trend | FROG traded below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages after the pullback from the July peak, above the 100-day and 200-day averages, with RSI near 45, oversold stochastic signals, and ADX pointing to a short-term bearish direction. This is a correction inside a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are the August 6, 2026 earnings report, valuation compression after the 2026 re-rating, slower AI usage growth, competition from GitHub and cloud-native registries, still-negative GAAP profitability, stock-based compensation dilution, security product execution, and any reset in software multiples. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because company filings, price data, and analyst targets are current as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Predictive confidence is only medium because the stock faces an imminent earnings event and AI consumption narratives and software multiples can reset quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FROG looks like a durable DevSecOps compounder with a real cloud inflection and a better entry price after the correction, but it is not a high-certainty bargain unless revenue growth and free cash flow compound fast enough to absorb the current forward multiple and the August report confirms momentum. | Medium |
FROG AI stock forecast
The FROG AI stock forecast uses the $79.79 July 31, 2026 close, the FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $0.95, and FY2027 consensus EPS of about $1.12, and it is cross-checked against the analyst price target range of $65 to $110. The framework produced a bearish value near $62, a base value near $84, and a bullish value near $106 before dilution, buybacks, or future multiple changes outside the stated assumptions. These are scenario ranges, not promises, and the August 6, 2026 report is a near-term decision point.
$100 to $115
More likely if Q2 2026 results on August 6 beat, FY2026 revenue tracks above the $628 million to $632 million guidance range, cloud growth stays near 40% to 50%, net dollar retention holds near 120% or better, $1 million-plus ARR customers keep compounding, security attach accelerates, free cash flow margin stays near the mid-20% area, and investors keep paying a multiple near or above 90x forward earnings.
$82 to $95
More likely if revenue compounds around the high-teens to low-20% rate, non-GAAP EPS grows near 18% to 20% annually, cloud remains the majority of revenue, operating leverage improves gradually, the buyback offsets some dilution, and FROG holds a premium but lower multiple near 73x to 85x forward earnings.
$55 to $70
More likely if Q2 results or guidance disappoint, AI coding agent consumption slows, customers optimize overages, security attach stalls, competitive registries pressure pricing, GAAP losses and share dilution weigh on sentiment, the OpenAI zero-day speculation lingers despite the follow-up clarification, or the stock re-rates toward 55x to 62x forward earnings.
FROG AI technical analysis
FROG AI technical analysis shows a correction within a longer uptrend as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart and Macrotrends showed a $79.79 close on July 31, 2026, after an all-time closing high of $98.10 on July 6, 2026 and a 52-week range of $34.05 to $99.22. Barchart listed the 20-day simple moving average near $86.50, the 50-day near $83.40, the 100-day near $66.38, the 200-day near $60.75, RSI near 45.45, and a 14-day ADX near 27.6 with negative directional index above positive directional index. Price sits below the short-term averages but well above the longer averages, so the near-term trend is soft while the broader trend support remains intact.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $79.79 | July 31, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math. The intraday range on July 31 was about $77.44 to $81.57. |
| Immediate support | $77 to $79 | The July 31 low near $77.44 and the post-pullback low zone. A hold here would keep the correction shallow. |
| First trend support | $74 to $77 | The area below the recent low and around the lower end of the pullback channel. Barchart showed the 50-day simple moving average near $83.40 above price, so this zone is the next reference below the current price. |
| Deeper support | $66 to $69 | The 100-day simple moving average near $66.38 sits in this zone and marks a more meaningful trend test. |
| Major support | $60 to $62 | The 200-day simple moving average near $60.75 defines the larger uptrend reference. A close below it would signal a major trend reset. |
| Near resistance | $83 to $87 | The 50-day simple moving average near $83.40 and the 20-day simple moving average near $86.50 are the first overhead hurdles after the pullback. |
| Round resistance | $90 | The psychological level near $90 sits below the July peak and would confirm repair only on a solid reclaim. |
| Major resistance | $95 to $99 | The all-time closing high of $98.10 on July 6, 2026 and the 52-week high near $99.22 define the upper boundary of the current range. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $86.50, 50-day $83.40, 100-day $66.38, 200-day $60.75 | Price below the 20-day and 50-day averages but above the 100-day and 200-day averages supports the read of a pullback inside a longer uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45 with oversold stochastic signals | Barchart listed 14-day RSI near 45.45 and 14-day stochastic %K near 21 with %D near 17, which is oversold. ADX near 27.6 with negative directional index above positive directional index points to short-term downside momentum. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.2 million to 2.9 million shares, with heavy activity during the breakout and pullback phases | Barchart and market data references showed 20-day average volume near 2.19 million shares and 50-day near 2.86 million. Sustained selling below $77 on high volume would raise breakdown risk. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $34.05 to $99.22, 14-day ATR near $5.46 | The wide range and the near 19% pullback imply large daily swings remain normal for FROG after the re-rating, with ATR around 6.8% of price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $74, then below $66 | A close below the recent low near $77 would weaken the pullback view, while a break below the 100-day area near $66 would challenge the longer uptrend. |
FROG AI trading strategy
The FROG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links technical levels with cloud growth, net dollar retention, large-customer expansion, free cash flow conversion, the August 6, 2026 earnings event, and valuation discipline after a sharp re-rating and correction.
Watch for FROG to reclaim the $83 to $87 moving-average zone and then the $90 round level on above-average volume while the August 6 Q2 2026 report confirms mid-20% or better revenue growth, cloud majority mix, strong $100k-plus and $1 million-plus customer growth, and free cash flow strength.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $77 should reduce setup confidence, especially if management commentary points to weaker AI usage, lower net dollar retention, slower security attach, or a guidance reset.
If FROG pulls back toward the $66 to $77 zone on oversold momentum without a negative Q2, RPO, or free cash flow reset, compare the lower price with FY2026 guidance, TTM free cash flow, and peer DevSecOps and software multiples before treating it as a reversal candidate.
Do not treat the pullback as attractive if the August 6 report disappoints, cloud growth decelerates sharply, competitive registry pressure rises, gross margin falls below the guided low-80% non-GAAP band, or the stock still trades above a valuation range that cash flow growth cannot support.
Track the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, FY2026 guidance, cloud revenue share, net dollar retention, RPO, $100k-plus and $1 million-plus ARR customers, Enterprise+ mix, non-GAAP operating margin, free cash flow margin, cash and investments, buyback activity, stock-based compensation, short interest near 9% of shares outstanding, and diluted share count.
Position sizing should reflect that FROG is a strong software business with a better post-correction price but still priced for sustained excellence, not a guaranteed AI infrastructure winner, and that the earnings report can move the stock sharply.
Investment research summary
Customers pay JFrog to store, govern, secure, and distribute software binaries and AI assets across development, security, and production. The core value is a trusted system of record for artifacts so teams can ship faster without losing control of the software supply chain.
JFrog benefits from high switching costs around Artifactory, platform expansion into security and MLOps, hybrid and multi-cloud deployment, and growing enterprise standardization, reinforced by leadership in the first Gartner Magic Quadrant for software supply chain security. The moat can narrow if GitHub, GitLab, Sonatype, or hyperscaler registries become good enough at package, security, and AI catalog workflows.
The thesis fails if AI coding agent demand proves cyclical, customers optimize cloud overages, competitive free or bundled registries cap pricing, stock-based compensation dilutes per-share value, the OpenAI zero-day speculation becomes a real product issue, or valuation compresses faster than cash flow compounds after the 2026 re-rating and the current correction.
Shlomi Ben Haim co-founded JFrog and has been CEO since 2008. Founder continuity, strong Q1 2026 execution, and a $300 million buyback authorization are positives, while key-person dependence, net share dilution, and execution on AI and security product expansion remain open governance and capital-allocation questions.
Software supply chain security, DevSecOps, continuous delivery, and AI agent-generated code all increase the volume and risk of binaries moving through enterprises. JFrog sits in a long-duration trend and was named a Leader in the first Gartner Magic Quadrant for software supply chain security, but the same trend attracts source-control platforms, security vendors, and cloud providers.
After the correction, the price implies that JFrog can keep compounding high-teens to low-20% growth, expand non-GAAP margins, and convert free cash flow for years. The base-case scenario points to modest upside from $79.79 toward about $84 to $95, the bull case needs sustained multiples near 90x forward earnings, and the bear case sits near $55 to $70. Margin of safety improved versus early July but is still limited without guidance beats and a healthy August 6 report.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $79.79 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis FROG quote and Macrotrends price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $9.66 billion as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis FROG market cap page | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and float | About 121.12 million shares outstanding and about 107.47 million float | StockAnalysis FROG statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE about 84x, TTM PS about 17.2x, forward PS about 14.7x, TTM P/FCF about 64x, PEG about 3.1 | StockAnalysis FROG statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $154.0 million, up 26% year over year | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cloud revenue | $78.9 million, up 50% year over year, 51% of total revenue | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow and cash | $37.3 million free cash flow and $741.2 million cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of March 31, 2026 | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Customer and retention metrics | 120% trailing four-quarter NDR, 80 customers above $1 million ARR, 1,225 customers above $100k ARR, RPO $574.9 million | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 company outlook | Revenue $628 million to $632 million and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.93 to $0.97 | JFrog Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue, cloud, and free cash flow | $531.8 million revenue, $243.3 million cloud revenue up 45%, and $142.3 million free cash flow | JFrog Q4 and fiscal 2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP earnings context | TTM revenue about $563.4 million, TTM net loss about $61.6 million, TTM GAAP EPS about -$0.52 | StockAnalysis FROG statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet context | Cash about $741.2 million, total debt about $16.5 million, net cash about $724.8 million or about $5.98 per share | StockAnalysis FROG statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Strong Buy from 22 analysts, average target $91.67, low $65, median $90, high $110 | StockAnalysis FROG forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst revenue and EPS forecasts | FY2026 consensus revenue about $632.9 million and non-GAAP EPS about $0.95; FY2027 consensus revenue about $743.5 million and non-GAAP EPS about $1.12 | StockAnalysis FROG forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 20-day SMA about $86.50, 50-day SMA about $83.40, 100-day SMA about $66.38, 200-day SMA about $60.75, RSI about 45.45 | Barchart FROG technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and recent high | 52-week range $34.05 to $99.22, all-time closing high $98.10 on July 6, 2026, 52-week average $58.03 | Macrotrends FROG stock price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 10.93 million shares short, about 9% of shares outstanding and about 10.2% of float | StockAnalysis FROG statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results expected August 6, 2026 after market close | StockAnalysis FROG earnings calendar and JFrog announcement | August 3, 2026 |
This JFrog stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if JFrog fundamentals, market multiples, interest rates, or investor sentiment change. Q2 2026 results due August 6, 2026 had not been reported at the cutoff.
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