Fox Corporation research snapshot
FOXA AI stock analysis reads Fox Corporation as a cash-generative live-news, sports, and advertising business that is being reshaped by its announced $22 billion acquisition of Roku. FOXA closed at $58.23 on July 31, 2026, and the verified market cap is about $24.45 billion using the current 419.90 million shares outstanding. The FOXA AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a price promise, and this page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$58.23
Market cap
$24.45 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Profitable live-news, sports, and AVOD franchise reshaped by the announced $22 billion Roku acquisition, with buyback support, antitrust scrutiny, and new leverage as the main swing factors
Trend status
Recovering technical setup: price near the 50-day average after a June Roku-deal selloff, still below the 200-day average, with neutral RSI and elevated short interest
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fox sells live news, sports, entertainment, local television advertising, distribution rights, and AVOD inventory through Tubi and, pending close, Roku. The strongest asset is live programming that still draws advertisers and pay-TV distributors. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from Fox News audience loyalty, scarce sports rights, local station reach, retransmission fees, and Tubi scale. It narrows as pay-TV shrinks, and the Roku deal is an attempt to rebuild a platform and data moat. | Medium |
| Management | Executive Chair and CEO Lachlan Murdoch has led the pivot from entertainment divestiture to Tubi, Fox One, disciplined buybacks, and now the $22 billion Roku acquisition. Voting control and succession remain key governance considerations. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $16.30 billion and net income was $2.26 billion. TTM revenue through March 31, 2026 was $16.20 billion and TTM net income was $1.71 billion, with recent quarters distorted by prior-year Super Bowl and Flutter investment effects. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.23, verified math shows 15.2x TTM EPS, 2.23x book value, 11.4x free cash flow per share, an 8.7% FCF yield, and a 0.96% dividend yield. The valuation is not demanding if combined cash flow holds, but the Roku transaction will add leverage. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FOXA closed at $58.23 on July 31, 2026, near the 50-day average of $58.32 and below the 200-day average of $62.99, after a 16.8% one-day selloff on June 15 tied to the Roku announcement. RSI was near 55.46. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Roku integration and antitrust review, new leverage, cord-cutting, advertising recession, sports rights inflation, Tubi and Fox One margin pressure, legal matters, and concentrated voting control. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, earnings releases, and third-party tables are current. Forecast confidence is medium because the Roku outcome, media revenue mix, and ad cycles can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FOXA looks like a cheap cash-flow story that is deliberately taking on platform risk. Certainty depends on the Roku deal clearing and on evidence that combined AVOD and live assets offset pay-TV subscriber decline. | Medium |
FOXA AI stock forecast
The FOXA AI stock forecast uses the $58.23 price reference, TTM EPS of $3.82, and a three-year earnings multiple model. The verified model produced a bearish value near $36.00, a base value near $54.30, and a bullish value near $74.20 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets, and the Roku acquisition is the main driver of the scenario spread.
$70 to $76
More likely if the Roku deal closes without burdensome conditions, Citi-style synergies of roughly $1 billion in annual EBITDA materialize, Tubi and Roku lift digital advertising, live sports and news pricing holds, and free cash flow stays above $2 billion.
$50 to $56
More likely if the Roku deal closes with normal integration friction, leverage stays manageable, advertising remains uneven but not weak, sports rights costs are controlled, and the market values the combined company near 13x forward earnings.
$34 to $40
More likely if antitrust scrutiny blocks or conditions the deal, Roku integration disappoints, advertising weakens, sports rights costs spike, leverage strains the balance sheet, or investors demand a lower multiple for governance and media-cycle risk.
FOXA AI technical analysis
FOXA AI technical analysis uses market data at the August 2026 cutoff. FOXA closed at $58.23 on July 31, 2026. The stock fell 16.8% on June 15, 2026 when the Roku acquisition was announced, bottomed near $48.34 on June 25, and has since recovered to trade near the 50-day moving average of $58.32 while remaining below the 200-day moving average of $62.99. RSI was near 55.46 with the 20-day average volume near 4.76 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.23 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis quote data. |
| Near-term support | About $55.00 | The mid-July consolidation base; a close below this zone would weaken the recovery setup. |
| Rebound support | About $52.00 | The late-June rebound zone that connects the June 16 to June 30 recovery. |
| Critical support and 52-week low | $48.34 | The June 25, 2026 low, the reference point for a failed recovery. |
| Near-term resistance | About $58.95 | Recent late-July highs near the 50-day moving average. |
| Major resistance | $62.99 | The 200-day moving average remains the larger trend hurdle for a sustained bullish setup. |
| Pre-deal price reference | About $65.85 | The June 12, 2026 close before the Roku announcement is the level investors may watch for gap closure. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55.46 | RSI is neutral, so confirmation should come from price follow-through above the 50-day average and volume. |
| Volume | Elevated around events | June 15 saw about 33.6 million shares traded on the Roku news; the 20-day average is near 4.76 million shares. |
| Volatility | Event-sensitive | FOXA can reprice around Roku deal and antitrust news, Q4 FY2026 earnings on August 6, sports rights, advertiser demand, and subscriber trend updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $52.00 | A decisive break below the rebound zone, and then below $48.34, would negate the current recovery base. |
FOXA AI trading strategy
The FOXA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Roku deal progress and antitrust review, distribution revenue, advertising demand, Tubi and Fox One costs, sports rights expense, leverage, free cash flow, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Watch for FOXA to hold the 50-day moving average near $58.32 and then reclaim the 200-day moving average near $62.99 while Roku deal milestones, antitrust review, and Q4 FY2026 earnings on August 6 confirm stable distribution revenue, Tubi and Fox One traction, and controlled leverage.
A close back below the $55.00 consolidation base, weaker ad demand, or a jump in sports rights costs or Roku financing should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FOXA pulls toward the $52 to $55 zone without deterioration in distribution fees, advertising pricing, liquidity, or free cash flow, compare the entry price with the verified base and bear scenarios and account for Roku deal uncertainty.
Do not treat a low earnings multiple as enough if antitrust outcomes, leverage, subscriber losses, or streaming investment begin to erode normalized cash flow.
Track Roku deal regulatory milestones and financing, Cable Network Programming EBITDA, Television advertising, Tubi and Roku revenue signals, Fox One adoption, sports programming cost, free cash flow, net debt, share repurchases, and short interest.
Position sizing should reflect that FOXA is a controlled media company with cyclical advertising exposure and a pending large acquisition, not a pure recurring-revenue platform.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Fox for live audience aggregation. Advertisers pay for attention around news, sports, entertainment, local stations, and Tubi, while distributors pay for content that helps retain subscribers.
Fox has audience loyalty in news, scarce sports rights, local station reach, retransmission economics, and growing AVOD inventory through Tubi. The Roku deal is designed to add a platform, data, and ad stack, but the moat narrows if audiences fragment faster than pricing and digital monetization can offset.
The thesis fails if the Roku acquisition destroys value through overpayment, integration failure, or antitrust conditions, if cord-cutting overwhelms distribution pricing, if sports rights inflation compresses margins, if advertising turns down, or if leverage and governance risk demand a permanent discount.
Management has leaned into live programming, Tubi, Fox One, dividends, buybacks, and now the Roku platform bet. The test is whether the Roku deal creates value while the company protects audience share and credit quality.
Media is shifting from bundled pay-TV to fragmented streaming and AVOD, and consolidation is reshaping the sector. Fox is betting that owning Roku platform and data assets will offset linear decline.
At $58.23, FOXA trades at 15.2x TTM EPS and 11.4x free cash flow per share with an 8.7% FCF yield. The margin of safety depends on whether combined live and AVOD cash flows stay durable and whether the Roku deal clears and integrates well.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOXA quote reference | $58.23 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis FOXA overview | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $24.45 billion calculated from $58.23 x 419.90 million shares outstanding, a 0.00% deviation from the reported market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis and S&P Global share count | August 1, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 419.90 million shares outstanding per S&P Global; Class A 199,631,720 and Class B 221,149,973 at March 31, 2026 per Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis statistics and Fox Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 1, 2026 |
| Roku acquisition | Approximately $22 billion cash-and-stock acquisition announced June 15, 2026, expected to close in the first half of 2027 | CNBC Fox-Roku coverage and Fox announcement | August 1, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | $3.994 billion revenue, $166 million net income attributable to Fox stockholders ($0.38 per share), and $954 million adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 | Fox Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 1, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 segment revenue | $5.678 billion Cable Network Programming revenue and $7.184 billion Television revenue | Fox Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.30 billion revenue and $2.263 billion net income | Fox 2025 Form 10-K | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials through March 31, 2026 | $16.20 billion revenue, $1.71 billion net income, $3.82 EPS, and $2.14 billion free cash flow | StockAnalysis financials | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.60 billion cash and cash equivalents, $6.61 billion non-current borrowings, and about $3.97 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | Fox Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM valuation math | 15.2x PE, 2.23x PB, 11.4x P/FCF, 8.7% FCF yield, and 0.96% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis EPS, book value, FCF per share, and dividend data | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI near 55.46, 50-day average near $58.32, 200-day average near $62.99, and a $48.34 to $76.39 52-week range | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12-month price target of $70.81 from 19 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | August 1, 2026 |
| Short interest | 48.17 million shares short, about 11.47% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Roku synergy estimate | Citi expects roughly $1 billion in annual EBITDA synergies from the Roku deal | Citi via TheFly | August 1, 2026 |
This FOXA AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates built from available public data as of August 2026, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, regulations, litigation, antitrust review, or macro conditions change.
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