Oklo Inc. research snapshot
OKLO AI stock analysis reads Oklo as a pre-revenue advanced nuclear platform developing Aurora powerhouses, fuel recycling, and radioisotope production. The important change since the prior review is that the DOE granted startup authorization for the Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Texas on July 23, 2026, clearing the way for fuel loading and first criticality, and the company closed a $1.0 billion at the market equity program in May 2026. Oklo still reported no revenue in Q1 2026, remained loss making, and its $6.76 billion market value depends on licensing, construction, fuel supply, customer conversion, and limited dilution. The latest close used here was $38.83 on July 31, 2026, down about 49% over the last 52 weeks and near its 52-week low of $36.61. This page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational use, not investment advice.
Current price
$38.83
Market cap
$6.76 billion
AI score
44 / 100
Rating
Pre-revenue advanced nuclear platform with a DOE-cleared isotope reactor path but heavy dilution and weak price action
Trend status
Below 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Oklo is building and plans to own and operate small fast reactors, sell electricity through power purchase agreements, recycle nuclear fuel, and produce radioisotopes. The commercial model is still pre-revenue, though the Groves isotope reactor now has DOE startup authorization. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Potential advantages include fast-reactor design, fuel flexibility, federal site and fuel work, regulatory know-how, and customer access. The moat is not proven until Oklo builds and operates reactors at an acceptable cost. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jacob DeWitte and the team have raised substantial capital, acquired Atomic Alchemy and Creative Engineers, expanded the executive bench, and advanced DOE and NRC work. The next test is disciplined conversion of financing and agreements into licensed, operating assets without excessive dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $0 and net loss was $33.1 million, while the Q1 2025 loss was $9.8 million. FY2025 net loss was $105.7 million and free cash flow remained negative, so current financial performance does not yet validate the future power model. | High |
| Valuation | At $38.83 and a $6.76 billion market cap, PE, sales, and cash-flow multiples are not useful because earnings and revenue are negative or absent. The price mainly reflects future reactor, fuel, isotope, and energy-market optionality. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was below the reported 50-day average of $53.52 and 200-day average of $75.70. RSI near 36.7 shows weak momentum, and the stock sits near its 52-week low, which does not by itself establish a reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high because licensing, first-of-a-kind construction, HALEU and fuel access, supply chain, project financing, customer conversion, dilution from the $1.0 billion equity program, and competition can all change the thesis. | High |
| AI confidence | Public filings support the descriptive facts, but no model can determine whether Oklo will license, build, operate, and profitably scale its planned powerhouses or isotope facilities. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company has strategic optionality but low investment certainty at the stated valuation. This page is a research framework, not a personal buy or sell instruction. | Low |
OKLO AI stock forecast
The OKLO AI stock forecast uses conditional planning ranges rather than a point target. A mechanical EPS model is not economically meaningful because Oklo has no reported revenue and current EPS is negative. The practical variables are Groves reactor criticality and isotope sales, Aurora-INL licensing and construction, fuel availability, customer contract conversion, cash burn, the $1.0 billion at the market equity program, and the premium assigned to long-duration nuclear development.
$60 to $95
More likely if the Groves isotope reactor reaches criticality and produces early commercial sales, DOE and NRC work continues without major delay, the Aurora-INL project moves into visible construction, Meta and Switch projects convert toward binding PPAs, and Oklo keeps dilution modest under the $1.0 billion equity program.
$30 to $55
More likely if regulatory and construction progress continues but revenue stays small, first-powerhouse timing remains years away, customer agreements remain conditional, and the market values Oklo as a funded development platform rather than an operating utility.
$14 to $28
More likely if isotope commercialization disappoints, licensing or construction slips, fuel procurement becomes restrictive, project costs rise, additional equity is issued at weak prices, or investors reduce the premium for pre-revenue nuclear developers.
OKLO AI technical analysis
OKLO AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 public snapshot of $38.83, a 50-day moving average of $53.52, a 200-day moving average of $75.70, RSI of 36.67, beta of 1.16, and 20-day average volume of 8.51 million shares. The 52-week range was $36.61 to $193.84. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level, moving average, volume reading, and catalyst in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.83 | Latest public close used for this static page on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $36.61 to $38.83 | The 52-week low of $36.61 and the recent closes form the nearest planning zone. A decisive close below the July low weakens the short-term setup. |
| Deeper support | $36.61 | The July 29 low of $36.61 is the 52-week reference. Below it there is no tested level from the recent range, so reassess after regulatory, financing, or project news. |
| Near resistance | $42.48 to $44.50 | The July 31 high and July 23 close mark the first recovery band. A move above it needs volume and business confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $53.52 | Price remained below this average in the August 3 data snapshot, leaving the intermediate trend unconfirmed. |
| 200-day moving average | $75.70 | This is a long-term trend reference, not a forecast. Recheck the live value before using it as a trading level. |
| Momentum | RSI 36.67 | Weak momentum close to the lower part of the usual RSI range. RSI alone is not a reversal signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 8.51 million shares | The July 31 session traded about 8.71 million shares. A breakout should show demand above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.16 | The reported five-year beta is above the market average. Nuclear and project news can still create larger gaps than beta suggests. |
| Invalidation | Close below $36.61 | A decisive close below the 52-week low invalidates this short-term recovery framework until a new base forms. |
OKLO AI trading strategy
The OKLO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical confirmation with licensing, construction, fuel supply, isotope sales, customer agreements, cash use, and share-count updates.
Watch for OKLO to hold the $36.61 to $38.83 area, reclaim $42.48 to $44.50, and then challenge the $53.52 moving average on above-average volume. Pair price strength with a new criticality, isotope sales, construction, customer, or regulatory milestone.
Define risk before entry. A failed recovery or decisive close below $36.61 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition.
If OKLO reaches the $36.61 to $38.83 planning zone without a licensing, funding, fuel, or customer thesis break, wait for stabilization and compare price action with cash, burn rate, construction progress, isotope revenue, and dilution risk.
Do not average down solely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside weaker project evidence or a higher capital requirement.
Track Groves reactor criticality and isotope contracts, DOE and NRC approvals, Aurora-INL construction, fuel fabrication and recycling permits, HALEU access, binding PPAs, cash and securities, operating cash flow, capital spending, and fully diluted shares under the $1.0 billion equity program.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, regulatory decisions, project financing, customer contract changes, acquisition updates, and material equity issuance. Do not rely on stale technical levels after a high-impact event.
Investment research summary
Oklo aims to design, build, own, and operate Aurora fast reactors, then sell electricity and heat through power purchase agreements. Fuel recycling and radioisotope production add possible revenue paths, but the main power business remains pre-revenue.
The potential moat combines reactor engineering, fuel flexibility, government relationships, site access, regulatory experience, and customer development. Those assets become durable only after Oklo proves safe, reliable, and economic operation at scale.
The thesis fails if the isotope reactor does not reach criticality or generate sales, licensing takes longer, the first reactor costs more than planned, HALEU or recycled fuel is unavailable, construction slips, customer agreements do not become binding PPAs, or the $1.0 billion equity program dilutes shareholders heavily.
Jacob DeWitte and Caroline DeWitte have kept the company focused on an integrated build-own-operate model while advancing fuel and isotope capabilities and adding executive leadership. The decisive management test is capital allocation: protect the balance sheet, sequence projects, and convert technical work into operating assets.
Demand for reliable low-carbon power is gaining attention from data centers, industry, and government, and Oklo joined a $200 million U.S. AI nuclear power initiative in July 2026. Advanced nuclear may benefit from that long-term need, but the sector remains regulated, capital intensive, dependent on specialized fuel, and exposed to long construction cycles.
At a $6.76 billion market value with no reported Q1 2026 revenue, OKLO is priced mainly on future reactor, fuel, and isotope scale. The balance sheet provides runway, but it does not create a margin of safety if project economics or shareholder dilution deteriorate.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO price | $38.83 close on July 31, 2026, down about 49% over 52 weeks | StockAnalysis historical prices | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.76 billion, verified as $38.83 x 173.99 million shares with 0.06% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 173,990,987 shares reported as of May 7, 2026, up about 33% year over year; StockAnalysis shows 173.99 million | Oklo Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $0 million, consistent with the SEC filing period | Oklo Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | $33.065 million, with $51.249 million loss from operations, versus a $9.810 million net loss in Q1 2025 | Oklo Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $105.663 million, matching StockAnalysis within rounding | Oklo 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Liquid assets at Q1 2026 | $2.537 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities under the SEC filing scope | Oklo Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Current valuation statistics | $4.55 billion enterprise value, 2.56x price to book, net cash per share of $12.68, and no meaningful PE or sales multiple | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $53.52, 200-day average $75.70, RSI 36.67, 20-day average volume 8.51 million, 52-week range $36.61 to $193.84 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 27.94 million shares short, about 16.06% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast | Buy consensus with an average price target of $84.20 across 25 analysts, ranging from $14 to $130 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| DOE isotope reactor milestone | Startup authorization for the Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Texas granted July 23, 2026, clearing the way for fuel loading and first criticality | Oklo press release and ETF Trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Equity program | $1.0 billion at the market equity distribution agreement signed May 13, 2026, adding to prior share issuance | Oklo Form 8-K filed May 13, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Deployment and customer milestones | First powerhouse target of 2028, 12 GW Switch master power agreement, and 1.2 GW Meta prepayment project in Pike County, Ohio disclosed by Oklo | Oklo Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
This OKLO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on public data and may be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, regulations, project timelines, and company plans can change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
