MDA Space Ltd. research snapshot
MDA AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads MDA Space Ltd. as a fast-growing Canadian space technology company whose share price was reset by a dilutive equity offering. The stock closed at C$42.44 on July 31, 2026, down roughly 25% from the C$56 area just before the July 8 announcement of the CLS acquisition and bought deal offering, with a market capitalization near C$6.88 billion re-verified as C$42.44 times 162.13 million shares. MDA closed a 23.0 million share offering at US$35.60 for gross proceeds near US$819 million on July 14, 2026 to help fund a roughly 70% stake in CLS for about EUR 567 million, priced C$600 million of 6.50% senior notes due 2033 on July 23 to fund the Blue Canyon Technologies acquisition, and reports Q2 2026 results on August 7, 2026. The business still compounds: FY2025 revenue rose 51% to C$1.63 billion, TTM revenue reached about C$1.75 billion with TTM net income near C$105 million, and the consensus price target is C$67.27, but the trailing P/E near 53x and near zero trailing free cash flow leave a narrow safety margin. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
C$42.44
Market cap
C$6.88 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Growth platform being re-rated after a dilutive financing
Trend status
Short-term downtrend below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, long-term uptrend above the 200-day
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MDA builds satellites, space robotics, and geointelligence systems for governments, space agencies, and telecom operators. Revenue grew 51% in FY2025 to C$1.63 billion and TTM revenue reached about C$1.75 billion, but profitability is thin with a TTM net margin near 6% and near zero free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from 55+ years of space heritage, including Canadarm, RADARSAT, and CHORUS, sole-source relationships with NASA, the Canadian Space Agency, and allied nations, high certification barriers, and a 450+ mission track record. Scale is real but competition from large primes keeps reported margins modest. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Mike Greenley has scaled revenue and backlog since the re-listing. The CLS and Blue Canyon Technologies acquisitions, the US$819 million equity raise, and the C$600 million notes offering are the defining capital allocation and integration tests, with CFO Guillaume Lavoie and the team expected to hold net debt to Adjusted EBITDA in the 1.5x to 2.5x range. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue is compounding, with FY2025 up 51% to C$1.63 billion, Q1 2026 up 32% to C$464 million, and TTM revenue near C$1.75 billion. TTM net income is near C$105 million, but free cash flow is about zero and Q1 2026 was negative after C$67 million of capex. | Medium |
| Valuation | At roughly 53x trailing and 31x forward earnings with an EV/EBITDA near 34x, the price embeds strong growth. The consensus target of C$67.27 implies upside if CLS and Blue Canyon close on time and margins expand. | Low-medium |
| Technical trend | MDA closed at C$42.44 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages near C$46.03 and C$52.36 but above the 200-day near C$39.70, with 14-day RSI near 39 and 14-day ADX near 28 with negative directional pressure. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are shareholder dilution from the 23.0 million share offering, execution and integration risk on two acquisitions, higher leverage from two debt raises, lumpy satellite program timing, US government market exposure through Blue Canyon, FX, and the possibility that a premium multiple compresses if growth disappoints. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for market data, filings, offering terms, and math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, Yahoo Finance, and press releases. Lower for forward returns because deal synergy and margin assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
MDA AI stock forecast
The MDA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of C$42.44 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of C$1.36. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near C$23, a base area near C$57, and a bullish area near C$106 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of negative 5%, 12%, and 25% and exit multiples of 20x, 30x, and 40x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
C$95 to C$115
More likely if the CLS and Blue Canyon acquisitions close on time and integrate, recurring revenue roughly doubles as guided, adjusted EPS compounds at a high rate, and investors re-rate MDA toward a 40x multiple on improving margins.
C$50 to C$62
More likely if MDA compounds adjusted EPS in the low teens, keeps net debt to Adjusted EBITDA in the 1.5x to 2.5x target, and the stock holds a 30x forward multiple as satellite systems and geointelligence revenue grow.
C$18 to C$30
More likely if acquisition integration slips, additional dilution occurs, satellite manufacturing margins stay thin, government budgets slow, or the market compresses the multiple toward 20x on missed growth targets.
MDA AI technical analysis
MDA AI technical analysis starts from the C$42.44 July 31, 2026 close. The stock fell from a May 28 high of C$67.90 to the C$40 to C$44 area as the equity offering and CLS deal reset the capital structure, closing below the 20-day moving average near C$46.03 and the 50-day near C$52.36 but above the 200-day near C$39.70. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | C$42.44 | StockAnalysis.com close at the July 31, 2026 market close; market cap math uses 162.13 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | C$40 to C$41 | The July 29 low of C$40.19 and the 200-day moving average near C$39.70 form the first meaningful support zone. |
| Secondary support | C$35 to C$38 | Below the 200-day average, the next area of prior consolidation before the 2026 rally phase. |
| Near resistance | C$46 to C$48 | The 20-day moving average near C$46.03 and the 100-day near C$48.27 cap short-term bounces. |
| Major resistance | C$52 to C$56 | The 50-day moving average near C$52.36 and the mid-July gap area near C$56 are the key recovery hurdles. |
| 50-day moving average | C$52.36 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near C$52.36, well above price, confirming the short-term downtrend. |
| 200-day moving average | C$39.70 | The 200-day trend line near C$39.70 is below price, so the long-term uptrend remains intact as long as MDA holds above it. |
| 100-day moving average | C$48.27 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near C$48.27, between the 20-day and 50-day and above price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 39, ADX near 28 with negative directional pressure | 14-day RSI was near 39.42, weak but not oversold, and 14-day ADX near 28.06 with the negative directional index near 26.7 above the positive index near 15.2, consistent with a downtrend. |
| Volume | Elevated during the July offering window | 20-day average volume near 1.23 million shares on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, with the highest readings on the July offering and post-announcement days. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near C$2.77, historical volatility above 50% | 14-day average true range near C$2.77, about 6.5% of price, and 14-day historical volatility near 58%, calling for wider stops and smaller position sizes. |
| Invalidation | Close below C$39.70, then below C$35 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would break the long-term uptrend. Reclaiming the 50-day near C$52 would signal the short-term downtrend is over. |
MDA AI trading strategy
The MDA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines deal and earnings catalysts, technical confirmation after the July reset, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Wait for MDA to reclaim the 20-day moving average near C$46 and then the 50-day near C$52 with rising volume before treating the July reset as absorbed. The August 7 earnings report and the August 5 notes closing are near-term catalysts.
A close back below the C$40 to C$41 support zone, or a gap down on earnings that breaks the 200-day near C$39.70, should trigger a stop and review.
If MDA holds the C$40 to C$41 zone near the 200-day moving average with drying volume and RSI near 39, compare the risk-reward against the Q2 report, CLS and Blue Canyon closing timing, and upcoming note maturities before acting.
Do not average down on deal-driven weakness without a maximum loss rule, because dilution and integration headlines can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track CLS and Blue Canyon closing and integration updates, the C$600 million notes close and net debt to Adjusted EBITDA toward the 1.5x to 2.5x target, recurring revenue mix toward the guided doubling, quarterly backlog and margins, and insider activity after the offering.
Lower the rating if adjusted EPS guidance weakens, net debt rises above the target range, additional shares are issued, or margin expansion stalls.
Investment research summary
MDA builds the satellites, space robotics, and geointelligence systems that governments, space agencies, and telecom operators rely on, from communications satellites and Canadarm3 to Earth observation data and analytics.
Decades of space heritage, sole-source government relationships, high certification barriers, and a 450+ mission track record create switching costs, but competition from large primes keeps reported margins modest.
The thesis fails if satellite manufacturing margins stay thin, the CLS and Blue Canyon deals are dilutive or poorly integrated, the roughly 17% share count increase is followed by more issuance, government budgets shift, or the added leverage from two debt raises becomes a problem if cash flow disappoints.
Mike Greenley has grown revenue and backlog since the re-listing. The two acquisitions and two financings are the defining capital allocation test, and success depends on integration, cost discipline, and holding net debt to Adjusted EBITDA in the 1.5x to 2.5x target range.
MDA sits across durable trends in LEO satellite broadband, defense and government space programs, lunar exploration through Canadarm3 and ESA Argonaut, and AI-driven Earth observation analytics through CLS, though contract timing and government funding remain lumpy.
At roughly 53x trailing and 31x forward earnings with about zero trailing free cash flow, the price assumes strong growth and margin expansion. The consensus target of C$67.27 offers upside if the deals close and integrate, but the margin of safety is thinner than the headline growth suggests.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDA price (TSX) | C$42.44 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | C$6.88 billion, computed as C$42.44 x 162.13 million shares and matching the reported C$6.88 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 162.13 million, up about 17% from about 138.8 million before the July 2026 offering of 23.0 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and MDA offering closing press release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About C$1.75 billion, equal to Q1 2026 of C$464.1M plus Q4 2025 of C$499.1M plus Q3 2025 of C$409.8M plus Q2 2025 of C$373.3M | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue C$1.63 billion up 51.2%, net income C$108.5 million, EPS C$0.84 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue C$464.1 million up 32.2% year over year, net income C$29.6 million, EPS C$0.22, operating cash flow C$60.9 million, capex C$67.2 million | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and margins | Net income about C$105.2 million, EPS C$0.80, gross margin 28.7%, operating margin 9.5%, net margin 6.0% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation | PE ratio 52.96 trailing, forward PE 30.75, P/S 3.94, P/B 3.73, EV/EBITDA 34.52, EV/EBIT 202.95 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and investments C$544.0 million, total debt C$380.7 million, net cash C$163.3 million as of March 31, 2026, before the July equity offering added about US$819 million in gross proceeds | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow C$201.4 million, capex negative C$202.7 million, free cash flow about negative C$1.3 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| CLS acquisition | Firm offer announced July 8, 2026 to acquire approximately 70% of CLS for about EUR 567 million (C$920 million) in cash, with CNES retaining about 30%; CLS 2026 expected revenue about EUR 286 million (C$465 million), more than 14,000 customers in about 150 countries, and about 1,200 employees; expected to close by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and to be accretive to Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS in the first year | MDA Space press release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Equity offering | Closed July 14, 2026, with 23,000,000 common shares issued at US$35.60 per share for gross proceeds of approximately US$819 million to fund a portion of the CLS purchase price, led by BMO Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets | MDA Space press release via PR Newswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Notes offering | C$600 million of 6.50% senior unsecured notes due August 5, 2033 priced July 23, 2026 and expected to close on or about August 5, 2026, with proceeds to fund the Blue Canyon Technologies acquisition; net debt to Adjusted EBITDA target of 1.5x to 2.5x after the CLS and Blue Canyon deals | MDA Space press release via CNW | August 3, 2026 |
| Blue Canyon Technologies acquisition | Acquisition announced June 19, 2026 and expected to close by the end of 2026, adding a strategic US government defence space business and manufacturing footprint | MDA Space notes offering press release via CNW | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of C$67.27 across 12 analysts, low C$51.00 and high C$88.00, median C$67.00 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 1 Hold, and 0 Sell out of 12 analysts; CIBC cut its target to C$59 on July 30, ATB Cormark to C$51 on July 17, Canaccord reiterated C$65 on July 17, RBC held C$58 on July 16, and BMO initiated at C$68 on July 15 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue C$1.83 billion with adjusted EPS C$1.36, FY2027 revenue C$2.80 billion with adjusted EPS C$1.82; the EPS figures reflect the higher share count from the July offering | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| ESA Argonaut lunar sensors contract | On July 21, 2026, MDA Space UK was selected by OHB to provide advanced lunar landing sensors for the European Space Agency Argonaut mission, with UK-developed technology to enable safe autonomous lunar landings | MDA Space press release via PR Newswire | July 21, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near C$41.94, 20-day SMA near C$46.03, 50-day SMA near C$52.36, 100-day SMA near C$48.27, 200-day SMA near C$39.70, 14-day RSI near 39.42, 14-day ADX near 28.06, 14-day ATR near C$2.77, 14-day historical volatility near 57.8% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull C$106.2 (25% growth, 40x PE), Base C$57.3 (12% growth, 30x PE), Bear C$23.3 (negative 5% growth, 20x PE) at 3 years from FY2026E adjusted EPS of C$1.36 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This MDA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool for education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff and can be wrong or outdated after the August 7 Q2 report, acquisition closings, or new financings. MDA Space trades on the TSX as MDA and on the NYSE as MDA; prices and figures on this page are in Canadian dollars unless noted, so US-based investors should consider currency risk.
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