Flagstar Bank, National Association research snapshot
FLG AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Flagstar Bank, National Association, formerly Flagstar Financial, Inc., as a regional bank and national mortgage lender that is rebuilding its balance sheet from concentrated New York rent-regulated multifamily exposure toward a diversified commercial and industrial loan book. The stock closed at $14.22 on August 3, 2026, unchanged from the $14.22 close on July 31, carrying a market capitalization near $5.93 billion that matches the $14.22 price times 417.02 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 24, 2026, delivered the third consecutive quarter of profitability: net income of $34 million, or $0.06 per diluted share to common stockholders, adjusted EPS of $0.05, adjusted pre-provision net revenue up 51% quarter over quarter, a net interest margin of 2.13% with June at 2.19%, record C&I loan origination of $2.8 billion driving $2.0 billion or 12% quarterly C&I loan growth, the first overall loan growth since Q4 2023, deposit costs down 5 basis points, a CET1 ratio of 13.16%, and a new $250 million share repurchase program. Management guides 2026 EPS of $0.40 to $0.50 and 2027 EPS of $1.60 to $1.70. The page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$14.22 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, unchanged from the $14.22 July 31 close, after opening at $14.35 and trading in a session range of $14.21 to $14.48 on the StockAnalysis.com quote, with the daily history table showing the same $14.22 close on volume near 3.1 million shares
Market cap
$5.93 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $14.22 price times 417.02 million shares outstanding, verified with 0.00% deviation
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Turnaround bank executing a C&I-led balance sheet rebuild
Trend status
Third consecutive profitable quarter with the first balance sheet and loan growth since 2023
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FLG is a regional bank and national mortgage lender serving consumers, small and mid-size businesses, and municipalities across 9 states with about 340 branches, holding $87.7 billion in assets, $67.5 billion in deposits, and $61.0 billion in loans at June 30, 2026. | Medium |
| Moat | Limited competitive moat in a commoditized regional banking market. Deposit relationships and a growing C&I franchise provide some stickiness, but the bank lacks pricing power and faces strong competition in its new commercial segments. | Low |
| Management | CEO Joseph Otting, a former Comptroller of the Currency, and the new leadership team have cut operating expenses 3% quarter over quarter, grown C&I loans 12%, reduced the CRE concentration ratio to 350% from 367%, kept CET1 at 13.16%, and launched a $250 million buyback, all while guiding to 2026 EPS of $0.40 to $0.50. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Net income improved from a loss of $1,153 million in FY2024 to a loss of $210 million in FY2025 and to $55 million of profit in H1 2026, with Q2 2026 net income of $34 million and adjusted PPNR up 51% quarter over quarter. | Medium |
| Valuation | At 0.78x book value and 0.81x tangible book value, the stock prices in continued turnaround risk. On FY2026 guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 EPS, forward PE sits near 28x to 36x; on FY2027 guidance of $1.60 to $1.70, it falls near 8x to 9x. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $14.22 on August 3, 2026, below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $14.59 and $14.54 but above its 200-day moving average near $13.31, with 14-day RSI near 43.9, neutral to slightly soft. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if the roughly $9 billion of CRE loans that reset or mature by end-2027 trigger renewed credit losses, New York rent regulation squeezes the $8.5 billion rent-regulated multifamily book, NIM compresses under higher-for-longer rates, or C&I expansion loosens underwriting discipline. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for verified financials, market data, and the market cap calculation. Lower confidence for forward estimates given the early turnaround stage and the 2027 reset wave. | High for verified data |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Low |
FLG AI stock forecast
The FLG AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $14.22 quote and the FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 and FY2027 guidance of $1.60 to $1.70 rather than a point target. The bullish case builds on sustained C&I growth, NIM expansion, and lower non-accrual loans; the base case assumes steady progress toward guidance; the bearish case weights the 2027 CRE reset wave, rent regulation, and NIM pressure.
$17.00 to $19.00
More likely if Flagstar Bank delivers FY2026 EPS near the top of the $0.40 to $0.50 range, ends 2026 with non-accrual loans near $2.3 billion as guided, holds NIM above 2.2%, keeps C&I loan growth near 12% quarterly, and FY2027 EPS approaches $1.70, allowing the stock to re-rate toward tangible book value near $17.51 or above.
$14.00 to $16.50
More likely if earnings progress is steady but unspectacular, FY2026 EPS lands near the middle of guidance, the CRE book keeps running off at about $1 billion of par payoffs per quarter, and the market holds the stock between the current quote and the average analyst target near $16.21 while waiting for the 2027 reset wave to pass.
$10.00 to $12.50
More likely if any of these risk paths appear: the 2027 CRE reset or maturity wave forces a new round of provisioning, New York rent freezes cut cash flow on the $8.5 billion rent-regulated multifamily book, NIM compresses, C&I growth slows, or capital markets lose confidence in the FY2027 EPS guidance of $1.60 to $1.70.
FLG AI technical analysis
FLG AI technical analysis starts from the $14.22 close on August 3, 2026, and the recent range between the July 27 low near $13.63 and the July 16 52-week high near $15.44. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.22 | The August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT close on StockAnalysis.com, unchanged from the July 31 close, after opening at $14.35 and trading between $14.21 and $14.48. |
| 5-day moving average | $14.15 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just below the current price. |
| Near support | $13.60 to $13.85 | The July 27 low near $13.63 and the post-earnings low near $13.74 on July 24 form the first support zone, estimated from the recent price range. |
| Next support | $13.31 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $13.31 on August 3, 2026, a key longer-term trend reference below price. |
| Near resistance | $14.50 to $14.60 | The 20-day moving average computed near $14.59 and the 50-day moving average near $14.54 cluster just overhead; a daily close above this band would open the path toward the July highs. |
| Upper resistance | $15.36 to $15.44 | The 52-week high of $15.44 was set on July 16, 2026, with the July 16 close near $15.36 as the nearest upper target. |
| 50-day moving average | $14.54 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $14.54 on August 3, 2026, just above the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $13.31 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day trend line near $13.31 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and consistent with a recovering longer-term trend. |
| 20-day moving average | $14.59 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.9 | The 14-day RSI was near 43.89 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral after the post-earnings pullback from the July 16 high. |
| Volume | Average volume near 4.4 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 4.43 million shares on August 3, 2026, with the July 24 earnings session showing about 11.4 million shares traded. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.00 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported beta near 1.00 on August 3, 2026, so position sizing should account for typical banking-sector swings and earnings-driven moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.31 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $13.31 would weaken the recovery setup; a break below the $13.60 zone would signal a retest of the 52-week low area. |
FLG AI trading strategy
The FLG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks.
Wait for FLG to close above the $14.50 to $14.60 band formed by the 20-day and 50-day moving averages with volume that confirms continued earnings and credit progress, then watch for a run toward the $15.36 to $15.44 resistance zone.
A daily close back below the 20-day moving average near $14.59 or a failed break of the resistance band should invalidate the setup.
If FLG pulls back toward the $13.60 to $13.85 support zone without a thesis-breaking credit event, compare the price reaction with the next earnings report, NIM trend, and non-accrual loan data before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the CRE reset exposure and rent-regulation risk.
Track the evidence that matters most for the turnaround: NIM and the June trend near 2.19%, deposit costs, C&I loan growth and the $2 billion-plus pipeline, non-accrual and NCO trends, the 2027 CRE reset wave near $9 billion, and management execution against the FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 and FY2027 guidance of $1.60 to $1.70.
Reduce confidence if price moves are driven by short covering or buyback headlines without matching fundamental improvement, or if 2027 reset provisioning accelerates.
Investment research summary
Flagstar Bank is a regional bank and national mortgage lender that takes deposits, originates loans, and services mortgages across 9 states with about 340 branches, currently shifting its balance sheet from concentrated multifamily and CRE toward a diversified C&I franchise.
Limited competitive moat. Regional banking is a commoditized industry, FLG is a price taker on most deposit and loan products, and its new C&I segments face strong competition from national and super-regional banks.
The thesis can fail if the roughly $9 billion of CRE loans that reset or mature by end-2027 drive a new credit cycle, New York rent freezes squeeze the $8.5 billion rent-regulated multifamily book, NIM compresses under higher-for-longer rates, or rapid C&I growth relaxes underwriting standards.
CEO Joseph Otting, a former Comptroller of the Currency, and the new team have stabilized profitability for three straight quarters, grown C&I loans 12% in Q2, cut expenses 3%, reduced CRE concentration to 350%, and launched a $250 million buyback while keeping CET1 at 13.16%.
Regional banks face margin pressure from elevated deposit costs and lingering CRE credit risk, but diversified commercial lenders with strong capital can compound earnings once credit normalizes and rates stabilize.
At 0.78x book value, the stock prices in continued distress and offers some downside cushion, but the safety margin depends on whether the FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 and the FY2027 guidance of $1.60 to $1.70 materialize as guided.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLG price | $14.22 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, unchanged from the $14.22 July 31 close, after opening at $14.35 and trading in a session range of $14.21 to $14.48, with the daily history table confirming the $14.22 close on volume near 3.1 million shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.93 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified as $14.22 times 417.02 million shares outstanding with 0.00% deviation via financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Exchange and company identity | NYSE-listed FLG for Flagstar Bank, National Association, formerly Flagstar Financial, Inc., founded 1859, headquartered in Hicksville, New York, with about 340 branches across 9 states and 5,631 employees | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | $34 million of net income and $26 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, attributable to common stockholders, versus $21 million and $0.03 in Q1 2026 and a net loss of $70 million and $0.19 in Q2 2025 | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders of $23 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, adjusted pre-provision net revenue of $62 million up 51% quarter over quarter, and operating expenses of $427 million down 3%, driving positive operating leverage of 7% | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Net income of $55 million versus a net loss of $170 million in H1 2025, with net income attributable to common stockholders of $39 million or $0.08 per diluted share versus a loss of $186 million or $0.45 in H1 2025, and adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders of $43 million or $0.09 | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Net interest margin | NIM of 2.13% in Q2 2026 versus 2.15% in Q1 2026 and 1.81% in Q2 2025, with June 2026 NIM near 2.19% and the quarterly figure at 2.16% excluding the extra calendar day, while deposit costs fell 5 basis points to 3.08% | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet growth | Total assets of $87.7 billion up about $585 million or 1% quarter over quarter, total loans of $61.0 billion up $562 million, the first overall loan growth since Q4 2023, and total deposits of $67.5 billion up $689 million, all driven by core deposits, with C&I loans up $2.0 billion or 12% to $18.6 billion on record originations of $2.8 billion | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| CRE reduction | Multifamily and CRE exposure down $1.5 billion or 4% quarter over quarter with $1.1 billion of par payoffs, 39% of which were substandard-rated, and the CRE concentration ratio improved to 350% from 367% and from above 500% when the current team took over | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Asset quality | Non-accrual loans of $2.8 billion up $123 million or 5% quarter over quarter but down 12% year over year, criticized and classified loans down $143 million or 1% and down $1.1 billion or 9% year over year, an ACL of $925 million or 1.52% of loans, multifamily ACL coverage of 1.63%, and 2.87% coverage for multifamily loans with 50% or more rent-regulated units, with NCOs of $100 million or 0.66% versus 0.52% in Q1 | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Capital position | CET1 capital ratio of 13.16%, Tier 1 risk-based ratio of 13.99%, total risk-based ratio of 16.58%, and leverage ratio of 9.70% as of June 30, 2026, with about $1.6 billion of after-tax excess capital relative to the low end of the 10.5% target CET1 range | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $18.31 book value per share, $17.51 tangible book value per share, and $15.54 tangible book value per share adjusted for warrant exercise, as of June 30, 2026 | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 EPS guidance | FY2026 EPS of $0.40 to $0.50 and FY2027 EPS of $1.60 to $1.70, with the 2026 balance sheet guided to about $91.5 billion to $92 billion and 2027 to about $100 billion, assuming one rate hike in October 2026 | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | $250 million common stock repurchase program announced July 24, 2026, reflecting the bank strong capital position and consistent with a management preference to repurchase below adjusted tangible book value | Flagstar Bank Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $1,878 million up 28.63% from $1,460 million in FY2024, and FY2025 net income attributable to common stockholders of negative $210 million, or negative $0.50 per share, versus negative $1,153 million in FY2024, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR filings | StockAnalysis.com financials and Flagstar Bank filings | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | TTM revenue of $2,031 million with revenue growth of 25.76%, TTM net income attributable to common stockholders of $15 million, and TTM EPS of $0.04, as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE near 394x on TTM EPS of $0.04, forward PE of 17.82 as reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics, price to book of 0.78x, price to tangible book of 0.81x, price to sales of 2.93x, and price to free cash flow of 27.53x at the $14.22 price | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 18 analysts with an average price target of $16.21, about 14% above the $14.22 price, a low target of $13, a median of $17, and a high of $18 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | UBS assumed coverage with a Buy and $18 target, Barclays raised to $17, TD Cowen upgraded to Buy with an $18 target then trimmed to $17, Cantor Fitzgerald raised to $17, Piper Sandler raised to $17.50, Citi raised to $18, JPMorgan raised to $17, Morgan Stanley raised to $15, and RBC Capital lowered to $15, all in the June to July 2026 window | StockAnalysis.com news and forecast pages | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 417.02 million shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL common stock shares outstanding of 417,018,972 at June 30, 2026, with total stockholders equity of $8,140 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly common dividend of $0.01 per share, an annual rate of $0.04 with a yield of 0.28%, and an ex-dividend date of September 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and dividend page | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and technical snapshot | 52-week range of $10.57 to $15.44, up 26.96% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta of 1.00, 50-day moving average near $14.54, 200-day moving average near $13.31, 14-day RSI near 43.89, and 20-day average volume near 4.43 million shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This FLG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, credit quality changes, 2027 CRE resets, market moves, or macro conditions.
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