Five Below, Inc. research snapshot
FIVE AI stock analysis currently reads Five Below, Inc. as a specialty extreme-value retailer with an improving merchandising flywheel under CEO Winnie Park, about 1,970 stores at the end of Q1 fiscal 2026 and a 2,000th store milestone reached in July 2026. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, FIVE traded at $217.13 with a verified market capitalization near $12.01 billion, about 27.4x trailing EPS and about 24.6x the midpoint of fiscal 2026 EPS guidance. The FIVE AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside depends on sustained traffic, merchandising newness, store productivity, and tariff management, while downside appears if discretionary teen and gift spending cools, imports get more expensive, or the stock stays overbought into the August 26 earnings report.
Current price
$217.13
Market cap
$12.01 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Strong Q1 beat-and-raise and improving traffic with a recovering technical uptrend, but the rally has pushed RSI near overbought and valuation back to roughly 27x earnings ahead of the August 26 report
Trend status
Recovering uptrend after a mid-July low near $173, with price back above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 69
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Five Below sells trend-right, extreme-value products across candy, style, party, room, create, tech, sports, and new-and-now worlds for teens, pre-teens, and gift shoppers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand fun, merchandising speed, social-media trend capture, store experience, and expanding store density. It is weaker than a software or payments moat because switching costs are low and price competition is intense. | Medium |
| Management | Winnie Park became CEO in December 2024 after Forever 21 and Paper Source roles. The Q1 fiscal 2026 beat-and-raise and July 2026 leadership appointments support the plan, but the track record at Five Below is still short. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 22.9% to $4.76 billion with net income of $358.6 million. Q1 fiscal 2026 sales rose 32.5% to $1.29 billion with comps up 22.7% and diluted EPS of $2.21, and trailing twelve-month net income reached $440.55 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $217.13, FIVE screens at roughly 27.4x trailing EPS, about 24.6x the fiscal 2026 guidance midpoint, about 2.36x TTM sales, about 5.19x book value, and about 23.8x free cash flow per share. | High |
| Technical trend | The daily setup has turned constructive after the mid-July low near $173. Price sits above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, but RSI near 69 and stochastic readings in the mid-80s put momentum close to overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariffs on imported goods, weaker discretionary spending, merchandising misses, holiday concentration, online low-price competition, inventory shrink, lease costs, and execution risk under a relatively new CEO. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases, StockAnalysis, and Barchart data mostly agree. Forecast confidence is lower because the stock is sensitive to comps, tariffs, and multiple expansion or compression. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FIVE offers a plausible growth-retail recovery framework, but the page does not treat the stock as a certain buy because the margin of safety has narrowed after a strong re-rating and momentum now sits near overbought territory. | Medium |
FIVE AI stock forecast
The FIVE AI stock forecast uses the $217.13 price reference and the $8.82 midpoint of Five Below fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $8.62 to $9.02. An audited three-year framework using that EPS base produced a bullish area near $335, a base area near $222, and a bearish area near $115. Using trailing EPS of $7.93 produced a similar shape with a bullish area near $300, a base area near $200, and a bearish area near $103. The range is wide because FIVE combines strong unit growth with discretionary demand and tariff sensitivity.
$300 to $350
More likely if Q2 and full-year comps stay at or above the raised guidance, new stores keep productive, merchandising newness sustains traffic, tariffs remain manageable, and investors pay a high-20s earnings multiple on faster EPS growth.
$200 to $235
More likely if fiscal 2026 sales land near $5.40 billion to $5.48 billion, EPS lands near guidance, free cash flow stays healthy after $230 million to $250 million of capex, and FIVE trades near a low-20s retail growth multiple.
$100 to $125
More likely if teen and gift traffic cools, tariffs raise landed costs, gross margin compresses, holiday comps disappoint, or investors re-rate FIVE toward a mid-teens earnings multiple after an overbought rally.
FIVE AI technical analysis
FIVE AI technical analysis has turned constructive as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Price closed at $217.13 on July 31, 2026, above the 5-day average near $212.18, the 20-day average near $198.16, the 50-day average near $199.43, and the 200-day average near $197.42, after a mid-July low near $173. The 52-week range still runs from $130.00 to $251.63, and the 14-day RSI near 69 plus a stochastic reading in the mid-80s show momentum that is strong but close to overbought.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $217.13 | Close on July 31, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation checks at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $208 to $212 | This band brackets the 5-day average near $212 and the late-July session low area. A loss here would show the near-term buying pressure fading. |
| Lower support | $197 to $200 | This band includes the 20-day average near $198 and the 50-day average near $199, so it is the first real test of whether the recovery holds. |
| Deeper support | $190 to $193 | This area captures the early-July and mid-June higher-low zone and gives a mean-reversion reference if price loses the moving-average band. |
| Major support | $173 to $176 | The mid-July swing low near $173 is the main invalidation zone for the recovery. A sustained break would put the uptrend in question. |
| Resistance | $220 to $223 | This band covers the late-July swing high near $223 and the early-June breakdown area, and is the immediate overhead test. |
| Major resistance | $229 to $232 | The early-June reaction highs near $232 sit between here and the 52-week high, making this the next big supply zone. |
| 52-week high | $251.63 | The 52-week high remains the major overhead reference for any durable move back to prior highs. |
| Moving averages | Price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages | The moving-average setup is a recovering uptrend, so holding above the 50-day near $199 matters more than any single bounce. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 69 and 14-day stochastic %K in the mid-80s | Momentum is strong but stretched, so a short-term pullback or consolidation is possible before any further advance. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 1.12 million, with a 2.38 million spike on the July 17 advance | The recovery has been volume-supported on up days, but low-volume pullbacks near support are less convincing and need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 52-week high near $251.63 and 52-week low near $130.00, with 14-day ATR near $7.48 | The wide range and roughly 3.4% daily ATR show that FIVE can re-rate quickly on comps and guidance, and can also give back gains when multiples compress. |
| Invalidation | Close below $197, then below $190 | A break below the 50-day area near $199 and then $190 would weaken the recovery setup and shift attention to whether fiscal 2026 guidance remains credible. |
FIVE AI trading strategy
The FIVE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with comparable sales, traffic, average ticket, merchandising worlds, tariff costs, store openings, free cash flow, inventory turns, and the August 26, 2026 earnings date.
Watch for FIVE to hold above $197 to $200 and reclaim $220 to $223 on stronger volume while Q2 commentary confirms traffic growth, margin stability, and no cut to fiscal 2026 sales or EPS guidance.
A failed test of the moving-average band followed by a close below $190 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management flags weaker discretionary spending or higher tariff costs.
If FIVE pulls back toward $197 to $200 or $190 to $193 without new margin damage, compare the lower price with the $8.62 to $9.02 fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range and free cash flow coverage after store growth capex.
Do not treat a lower multiple as automatically cheap if comps slow, inventory builds, shrink rises, or tariff costs outrun pricing power, and remember RSI near 69 already prices a lot of good news.
Five Below reports Q2 fiscal 2026 results around August 26, 2026. Before that date, define the levels in this table, track analyst price targets near the $260 consensus, and decide how comps, guidance, and tariff commentary would change your view.
Options and position size should reflect that earnings can move FIVE sharply in both directions, as shown by the 13.8% single-day drop in early June and the recovery since.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Five Below for trend-right, extreme-value products in a fun store experience. The business is less about pure staples and more about discovery, gifts, social trends, and the freedom to say yes to small-ticket impulse purchases.
The moat is built from brand recognition with kids and teens, merchandising speed, social-media amplification, store theater, and a growing national footprint now past 2,000 stores. It narrows when Dollar Tree, Walmart, Target, Amazon, Temu, Shein, or other value channels match price, newness, and convenience.
The thesis fails if tariffs raise landed costs faster than pricing can absorb, teen and gift traffic cools, merchandising misses trend cycles, holiday seasonality disappoints, inventory turns slow, store productivity fades, or the CEO transition loses operating discipline after a sharp re-rating.
Winnie Park joined as CEO in December 2024 and has emphasized customer experience, merchandising newness, and clearer brand positioning. The Q1 fiscal 2026 beat-and-raise and the June 2026 additions of a chief retail officer and chief legal officer support the plan, but the key test is whether the surge becomes durable multi-year execution.
Five Below sits inside the long-running demand for value retail, experiential discovery, social-commerce trends, and gift-oriented small-ticket spending. The offset is that the same customer is highly exposed to inflation, employment, parental spending power, and competition from online ultra-low-price platforms.
At $217.13, the market prices FIVE as a re-rated growth retailer trading near the $260 analyst consensus. Margin of safety is thinner than in mid-2026 because the stock has already recovered strongly. Weak traffic, tariff pressure, or holiday miss risk can erase that support quickly.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIVE quote reference | $217.13 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis FIVE overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.01 billion reported, $12.01 billion calculated from $217.13 x 55.30 million shares with 0.02% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 55.30 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis FIVE statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $4.76 billion, up 22.9% year over year, consistent across StockAnalysis financials and company releases | StockAnalysis FIVE financials and Five Below releases | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $358.64 million net income and $6.47 GAAP diluted EPS, with adjusted diluted EPS of $6.67 | Five Below FY2025 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 results | $1,285.6 million net sales, 22.7% comparable sales growth, $123.1 million net income, $2.21 GAAP diluted EPS, and $2.22 adjusted diluted EPS | Five Below Q1 fiscal 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Net sales of $5.40 billion to $5.48 billion, diluted EPS of $8.62 to $9.02, about 150 net new stores, 6% to 8% comparable sales growth, and gross capex of $230 million to $250 million | Five Below Q1 fiscal 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 guidance | Net sales of $1.18 billion to $1.20 billion, about 50 new stores, 7% to 9% comparable sales growth, and diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.27 | Five Below Q1 fiscal 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $638.9 million cash and $474.4 million short-term investments as of May 2, 2026, or about $1.11 billion combined | Five Below Q1 fiscal 2026 balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Store footprint | 1,970 stores in 46 states as of May 2, 2026, with the 2,000th store celebrated on July 9, 2026 | Five Below Q1 fiscal 2026 release and GlobeNewswire milestone | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month financials | Revenue of $5.08 billion, net income of $440.55 million, EPS of $7.93, and free cash flow of $505.27 million | StockAnalysis FIVE statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 27.4x trailing PE on $7.93 TTM EPS, about 24.6x fiscal 2026 guidance midpoint EPS, about 5.19x book value, about 2.36x TTM sales, and about 23.8x free cash flow per share by tool check | StockAnalysis FIVE statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 25 analysts with an average price target of $260.48, a low of $210, and a high of $325 | StockAnalysis FIVE forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week high near $251.63, 52-week low near $130.00, 5-day average near $212.18, 20-day average near $198.16, 50-day average near $199.43, 200-day average near $197.42, and 14-day RSI near 69 | Barchart FIVE technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Estimated August 26, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis FIVE overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Management | Winnie Park named CEO effective December 16, 2024; Rodney Lastinger named Chief Retail Officer and Christos Yatrakis named Chief Legal Officer in June 2026 | Five Below announcements | August 3, 2026 |
This FIVE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Five Below, Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, consumer demand, tariffs, interest rates, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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