Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. research snapshot
FIGR AI stock analysis reads Figure Technology Solutions as a blockchain-native fintech company building a vertically integrated lending, trading, and asset management marketplace. Q1 2026 GAAP revenue was $143.97 million and net income was $44.94 million, with about $1.46 billion of cash on hand as of the March 2026 balance sheet and a $600 million senior notes offering priced in July 2026 to help fund the $717 million Kiavi acquisition. FIGR closed at $24.91 on July 31, 2026, near a new 52-week low of $24.28, with a market cap of about $5.5 billion, roughly 33x to 43x trailing GAAP earnings and about 11x trailing revenue depending on the source. This FIGR AI stock analysis uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price forecast, and is for informational purposes only.
Current price
$24.91 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
About $5.5 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Blockchain-based fintech platform with fast-growing HELOC, first-lien, and marketplace volume and a Q2 2026 operating beat, but the stock trades at new post-IPO lows with a premium valuation, a debt-funded Kiavi acquisition, and credit and regulatory risk
Trend status
At a new post-IPO low: $24.91 is about 68% below the $78.00 high and about 3% above the $24.28 low, with price below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Figure originates, securitizes, and services home equity loans, cash-out refinance, first-lien mortgages, DSCR loans, and crypto-backed loans using blockchain-based infrastructure, and operates a capital markets marketplace through Figure Connect, an on-chain lend-borrow marketplace through Democratized Prime, and a registered yield-bearing token ($YLDS). | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from Provenance Blockchain infrastructure, an estimated 75% share of real-world asset tokenization, its position as the largest non-bank HELOC provider, automated loan origination and securitization, Figure Connect marketplace distribution, over 380 partners, AAA-rated securitizations, and Adaptor AI onboarding. It can narrow if traditional lenders match blockchain efficiency, regulatory scrutiny increases, or credit losses rise above modeled levels. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Michael Tannenbaum (appointed 2024) replaced founder Mike Cagney in the top role; Cagney remains executive chairman and co-founder. CFO Macrina Kgil drives the marketplace economics, and Kiavi CEO Arvind Mohan is set to join as Chief Business Officer after the acquisition closes. Insiders own roughly 26% and sold about $5.9 million of shares over the past 90 days under pre-arranged plans. Founder influence, prior SoFi governance questions, and key-person risk around Cagney warrant ongoing monitoring. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $432.1 million, up 47.6%, and earnings were $62.0 million. Q1 2026 GAAP revenue was $143.97 million with net income of $44.94 million, and adjusted net revenue was about $167 million, up 92% year over year. Q2 2026 preliminary marketplace volume was $4.26 billion, up 132% and above the top of guidance. TTM revenue is about $510 million. The company held about $1.46 billion in cash against about $1.32 billion in total debt before the July 2026 notes offering. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $24.91, FIGR has a market cap of about $5.5 billion. Trailing P/E is about 33x to 43x depending on the EPS measure, forward P/E is about 25x, price to sales is about 10.8x, and price to book is about 4.2x. The three-year scenario framework produced a bearish zone near $14, a base zone near $28, and a bullish zone near $50 before dilution or buybacks. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FIGR is trading at new post-IPO lows. On July 31, 2026 it closed at $24.91, about 68% below the $78.00 high and about 3% above the $24.28 low, below both the 50-day moving average (about $30.20) and the 200-day moving average (about $37.65). | Low-medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are the short public track record, Kiavi acquisition integration, a new $600 million 8.5% debt raise, interest rate sensitivity on HELOC and first-lien demand, credit quality in a softening economy, blockchain regulatory risk, dual-class voting concentration, insider selling, and a premium valuation versus traditional mortgage lenders. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is medium-high for company metrics and cross-checked financials. Predictive confidence is medium-low because post-IPO fintech stocks can reprice faster than fundamentals evolve, and FIGR just printed a new 52-week low. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Figure is a growing blockchain-based lending marketplace with real revenue, profitability, and a Q2 operating beat, but the stock embeds continued high growth expectations, a debt-funded acquisition integration, and a still-developing public market track record that reduces investment certainty. | Low-medium |
FIGR AI stock forecast
The FIGR AI stock forecast uses the $24.91 July 31, 2026 close, trailing EPS of about $0.58 to $0.75 (source variance), FY2026 consensus EPS of about $0.92, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $14, a base value near $28, and a bullish value near $50 before dilution, buybacks, or multiple changes outside the stated assumptions. These are scenario ranges based on public data, not certain predictions.
$45 to $55
More likely if Figure sustains marketplace volume growth above 30%, the Kiavi acquisition closes and accretes quickly, the 60% EBITDA margin target advances, HELOC and first-lien volumes expand, blockchain regulation creates tailwinds, Q2 2026 results on August 13 confirm the operating beat, and the stock re-rates toward 28x to 32x forward earnings on stronger GAAP profitability.
$24 to $33
More likely if Figure compounds EPS around 15% to 20%, integrates Kiavi with manageable execution risk, holds GAAP profitability, and keeps a growth-fintech multiple near 22x to 26x forward earnings as the post-IPO discovery period matures.
$12 to $18
More likely if HELOC and first-lien demand softens with lower interest rates or lower housing turnover, the Kiavi acquisition faces integration or credit quality issues, the 8.5% notes weigh on cash flow, blockchain-related regulatory costs rise, credit losses exceed modeled ranges, or the stock re-rates toward 15x to 18x earnings as growth decelerates.
FIGR AI technical analysis
FIGR AI technical analysis is limited by the short post-IPO trading history as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance and StockAnalysis showed a $24.91 close on July 31, 2026, a 52-week range of $24.28 to $78.00, and a fresh post-IPO low at $24.28. Price sits below the 50-day moving average (about $30.20) and the 200-day moving average (about $37.65), with a relative strength index near 37. With only about 11 months of trading data, moving averages and momentum indicators carry less historical weight than for longer-established names.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $24.91 | July 31, 2026 close per Google Finance and StockAnalysis; used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Support zone | $24.28 to $24.00 | The 52-week low of $24.28 is the key support reference in the short trading history. A defended retest near this area would be the first sign of base building. |
| Near resistance | $30 to $33 | The 50-day moving average near $30.20 and the low end of analyst targets near $31 to $33 define the first overhead zone. Recapturing it would be the first sign the downtrend is easing. |
| Major resistance | $36 to $45 | The 200-day moving average near $37.65 and analyst targets near $45 to $46 define the next band. The consensus target cluster near $50 to $55 and the 52-week high of $78 sit further above. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $30.20, 200-day near $37.65 | Price is below both averages, which is a downtrend signal. With only about 11 months of trading, these averages shift quickly and carry less weight than for established stocks. |
| Momentum | Weak, RSI near 37 | RSI near 37 is soft but not at an extreme oversold reading that historically marked durable post-IPO lows. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 2.7M to 3.8M shares | Volume on July 31 was about 3.2 million shares. Selling into the new low without a volume spike keeps a bottom unconfirmed. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $24.28 to $78.00 | The wide IPO-to-current range means large daily and weekly swings remain normal for this thinly traded post-IPO name. |
| Short interest | About 11.6M shares, about 8.5% of float | Elevated short interest adds squeeze risk on positive surprises such as the August 13 Q2 report, but also reflects skeptical positioning. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.28 | A break below the 52-week low would weaken any base-building narrative and establish a new downward reference point. |
FIGR AI trading strategy
The FIGR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links technical levels with marketplace volume growth, the August 13 Q2 2026 earnings report, Kiavi acquisition progress, credit metrics, and valuation discipline.
Watch for FIGR to defend the $24.28 to $24.00 support zone and recapture the $30 to $33 area on above-average volume while the August 13 Q2 report confirms sustained volume growth, GAAP profitability, and positive Kiavi integration news.
A failed retest or a close below $24.28 should invalidate the setup, especially if Q2 2026 revenue, margins, or credit metrics disappoint.
If FIGR stabilizes near the $24 to $26 area without a negative credit, regulatory, or funding reset, compare the new price with book value (about $5.89 per share), net cash (about $1.99 per share before the notes offering), peer fintech multiples, and analyst target ranges before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat the 52-week low as automatic value if HELOC demand, Kiavi integration, loan credit quality, the 8.5% debt load, or blockchain regulation create incremental uncertainty.
Track the August 13 Q2 2026 results, full-year revenue growth, GAAP net income, consumer loan marketplace volume (Q2 preliminary $4.26 billion), Figure Connect and first-lien share, partner count, Kiavi acquisition timeline, credit loss rates, cash and debt levels including the $600 million notes, stock-based compensation, insider selling, and blockchain regulatory developments.
Position sizing should reflect that FIGR is a fast-growing but still unproven public company with a short track record, concentrated founder influence, insider sales, and a forward valuation that prices in continued execution.
Investment research summary
Figure uses blockchain technology to originate, fund, and trade home equity loans, first-lien mortgages, DSCR loans, and other consumer lending products faster and at lower cost than traditional banks. Customers and partners pay for speed, automation, liquidity, and access to a digital capital marketplace.
Figure benefits from its Provenance Blockchain infrastructure, an estimated 75% share of real-world asset tokenization, its position as the largest non-bank HELOC provider, automated loan origination and securitization, the Figure Connect marketplace, over 380 partners, AAA-rated securitizations, and Adaptor AI onboarding. The moat can narrow if traditional lenders deploy comparable technology or if regulatory costs rise.
The thesis fails if HELOC and first-lien demand declines with lower home prices or higher rates, the Kiavi acquisition creates integration losses or credit problems, the 8.5% notes strain cash flow, blockchain regulation increases compliance costs, credit losses exceed modeled ranges, or the stock de-rates further as growth decelerates and insider selling continues.
Michael Tannenbaum became CEO in 2024, replacing founder Mike Cagney, who remains executive chairman. CFO Macrina Kgil runs the marketplace economics, and Kiavi CEO Arvind Mohan is expected to join as Chief Business Officer. Management has demonstrated product execution, capital markets access, and the ability to raise equity and debt, but founder influence, prior SoFi governance controversies, insider sales, and key-person risk around Cagney require monitoring.
Figure sits at the intersection of several long-duration trends: consumer demand for home equity access, institutional demand for alternative credit assets, real estate investor lending, blockchain adoption and real-world asset tokenization in financial services, and technology-driven efficiency in lending. The same trends attract competition from traditional lenders, other fintechs, and decentralized finance protocols.
At roughly 33x to 43x trailing EPS, about 25x forward EPS, and about 10.8x trailing revenue, the stock embeds strong continued growth and margin expansion. The audited base case leaves limited upside from $24.91 toward about $28 to $33, while the bull case requires sustained high growth and a premium fintech multiple. Margin of safety is limited unless EPS compounds at or above the consensus path.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $24.91 close on July 31, 2026 | Google Finance FIGR quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | About $5.5 billion (verified $24.91 x about 220M total shares) | Google Finance and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $24.28 to $78.00 | Google Finance range data | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP revenue | $143.97 million | Google Finance FIGR income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $44.94 million | Google Finance FIGR income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted net revenue | About $167 million, up 92% year over year | PYMNTS coverage of company earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 preliminary marketplace volume | $4.26 billion, up 132% year over year, above the top of guidance | Figure July 7, 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $510 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $108 million to $180 million (measure varies by source), EPS about $0.58 to $0.75 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) and Google Finance quarterly data | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | About $1.46 billion cash against about $1.32 billion total debt (March 2026 balance sheet) | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Senior notes offering | $600 million of 8.5% senior notes due 2031, about $587.5 million net proceeds | Figure July 9, 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 221 million total shares (Class A about 182.6 million) | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation markers | P/E (TTM) about 33x to 43x, forward P/E about 25x, P/S about 10.8x, P/B about 4.2x | Google Finance and StockAnalysis key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average target about $50 to $52 (Moderate Buy / Buy), range $31 to $67 | MarketBeat August 2, 2026 and Google Finance ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent acquisition | Kiavi acquisition for $717 million (announced June 10, 2026) | Figure June 10, 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
This FIGR AI stock analysis is for information and education only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenario models based on publicly available data as of the stated cutoff and can be wrong. Markets, competition, loan performance, blockchain regulation, and company fundamentals can change quickly. Do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
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