Element Solutions Inc research snapshot
ESI AI stock analysis currently reads Element Solutions as a specialty chemicals technology company with strong electronics exposure, customer-specific formulations, technical service, and improving demand from semiconductor, advanced packaging, power electronics, and data center infrastructure. The main change is the July 6, 2026 definitive agreement for Solstice Advanced Materials to acquire ESI. Each ESI share is entitled to $10.00 in cash plus 0.500 SOLS shares, with consideration valued at about $50.10 when announced. Using the July 10 SOLS close of $61.30, the mechanical consideration was about $40.65 versus the ESI close of $39.82, a gross spread of about 2.1% before time, fees, taxes, dividends, market moves, and deal risk. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$39.82
Market cap
$9.70 billion calculated from $39.82 x 243.61 million shares
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Specialty materials business with a pending cash and stock acquisition
Trend status
Event-driven, below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ESI supplies specialty chemical process technologies for electronics, semiconductor fabrication, advanced packaging, industrial surface finishing, and offshore energy. Electronics represented about 70% of FY2025 sales and grew organically 10%. | High |
| Moat | Customer-specific formulations, technical service, qualification work, switching costs, global support, process know-how, and about 2,600 patents support the moat. Competition from larger global suppliers limits its strength. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Benjamin Gliklich and CFO Carey Dorman have pursued portfolio reshaping and electronics expansion through the MGS divestiture, EFC acquisition, and Micromax acquisition. The Solstice transaction is now the central capital allocation and execution test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $2.551 billion, net income was $191 million, adjusted EBITDA was $547.6 million, and free cash flow was $227.6 million. Q1 2026 sales grew 41% reported and 10% organic, but GAAP net income fell because the prior year included a divestiture gain. | High |
| Valuation | At $39.82, ESI was about 50.4x FY2025 GAAP EPS, 65.3x TTM EPS, 79.6x TTM free cash flow, and 3.55x book value. The near-term valuation is better framed by the $10 cash plus 0.500 SOLS share merger formula than by a normal standalone multiple. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest snapshots showed price below the 50-day moving average of $43.03 but above the 200-day average of $32.94, with RSI near 41.54 and average 20-day volume around 6.09 million shares. Deal headlines make normal chart signals less reliable. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high for the event-driven setup because the stock component moves with SOLS, the transaction needs approvals, the deal can terminate, ESI carries about $1.99 billion of net debt, and integration may add leverage and execution risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Forward price confidence is lower because an acquisition spread is path-dependent and the quoted consideration changes with SOLS and the probability of closing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. The operating business is understandable, but the current price is mainly a judgment about transaction completion, SOLS value, timing, and the value of ESI if the deal breaks. | Medium-low |
ESI AI stock forecast
The ESI AI stock forecast is a merger consideration and break-price framework, not a normal three-year price target. The agreement provides $10.00 in cash plus 0.500 SOLS shares for each ESI share. With SOLS at $61.30 on July 10, 2026, the mechanical value was $40.65, or about 2.1% above the ESI close. A separate financial_rigor.py standalone sensitivity using $1.49 adjusted EPS, 20%, 12%, and 5% annual growth, and 24x, 18x, and 12x exit P/E multiples produced $61.80, $37.70, and $20.70 after three years. That sensitivity is not a promise and is secondary while the deal is pending.
$45 to $50
More likely if required approvals arrive, both shareholder votes pass, closing stays on the first-half 2027 timetable, and SOLS trades around $70 to $80. The merger formula would then imply roughly $45 to $50 per ESI share before timing and execution adjustments.
$39 to $43
More likely if the deal remains on track, SOLS trades around $58 to $66, and the market gradually prices the spread toward the formula value. At the July 10 SOLS close, the formula implied about $40.65 per ESI share.
$22 to $36
More likely if the merger is rejected, delayed, blocked, or repriced, or if SOLS falls toward $36 to $52. A failed deal would return attention to ESI standalone earnings, net debt, competition, and the audited sensitivity that reached about $20.70 in its bear case.
ESI AI technical analysis
ESI AI technical analysis is event-driven and mixed as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July snapshot with price at $39.82, a 50-day moving average of $43.03, a 200-day moving average of $32.94, RSI of 41.54, beta of 1.23, and 20-day average volume of about 6.09 million shares. StockInvest and ChartMill snapshots from July 8 placed nearby support below price and resistance in the low $40s. The merger announcement can overwhelm ordinary technical signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.82 | Macrotrends closing price for July 10, 2026, used for market cap and valuation math at the July 12 cutoff. |
| Near support | $38.00 to $38.08 | StockInvest identified accumulated-volume and Fibonacci support just below the July 10 close. |
| Deeper support | $37.14, then $35.62 | These are lower Fibonacci support references from the July 8 technical snapshot, not fundamental fair values. |
| Near resistance | $41.12 to $42.05 | The first overhead zone comes from Fibonacci and accumulated-volume references in the StockInvest snapshot. |
| Upper resistance | $42.32 to $43.57 | The $42.32 area was listed as the first resistance from accumulated volume, while $43.57 was the upper Fibonacci reference. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $43.03, 200-day $32.94 | Price was below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average in the StockAnalysis snapshot. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.54; ChartMill RSI 46.26 | Both readings were neutral to weak rather than oversold. The difference reflects source and timestamp variation. |
| Volume | About 6.09 million shares average over 20 days | The elevated volume context is consistent with a recently announced transaction and should be checked against live data. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.23; ATR about 2.79% | ESI has above-market beta and medium daily range volatility, with merger headlines adding gap risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $37.14, or a material deal break update | A break below lower support weakens the chart setup. A merger termination or adverse approval event changes the thesis more directly than price action. |
ESI AI trading strategy
The ESI AI trading strategy is an event-driven research framework for a pending cash and stock acquisition. It is not personal advice. Any review should track the merger agreement, SOLS price, approval milestones, ESI operating results, position size, liquidity, and a defined break-risk response.
Watch whether ESI holds $38.00 to $38.08 and reclaims $41.12 to $42.05 with volume while the merger stays on track. Recalculate the live consideration as $10.00 plus 0.500 times the SOLS share price before treating a breakout as meaningful.
Do not treat the quoted $50.10 announcement value as fixed. A lower SOLS price, longer closing timeline, regulatory obstacle, or termination can reduce expected value.
If ESI pulls back toward $38.00 while SOLS and the merger terms remain stable, compare the share-price move with the live merger formula, closing timetable, and approval status. Use the $43.03 50-day average as a higher reference.
A close below $37.14 or a gap on merger news invalidates a normal trend setup. Technical levels do not cap overnight event losses.
Track Electronics organic growth, adjusted EBITDA guidance of $665 million to $685 million, EFC and Micromax integration, net debt, customer qualification wins, R&D, 2028 debt maturity, and any change to the merger timetable or terms.
Reduce confidence if Electronics growth slows, working capital consumes cash, leverage rises, the deal loses required approvals, or SOLS financing and integration assumptions deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ESI for chemical process technologies that improve manufacturing yield, reliability, performance, and durability. Its products are small inputs in customer cost structures but can be important to electronics assembly, circuit formation, semiconductor plating, advanced packaging, and industrial surface finishing.
The moat is built from technical know-how, customer-specific formulations, qualification cycles, local technical service, supply-chain access, brand reliability, and a patent portfolio. The moat is real but not absolute because ESI competes with MKS Instruments, Qnity, Henkel, Senju, Uyemura, Quaker Houghton, and other regional specialists.
The thesis fails if the Solstice transaction breaks, SOLS falls enough to erase the stock component, approvals take longer than expected, integration consumes cash, leverage rises, customer demand weakens, raw material costs cannot be passed through, or the electronics growth narrative proves too concentrated in a few end markets.
Benjamin Gliklich is CEO and Carey Dorman is President of Enterprise Operations and CFO. Recent decisions included selling MacDermid Graphics Solutions, buying EFC for about $367 million, buying Micromax for about $493 million, and agreeing to combine with Solstice. The test is whether the team protects customer relationships and shareholder value through the transaction and integration.
The strongest long-term trend is the rising process complexity of semiconductor packaging, power electronics, data center hardware, and AI infrastructure. ESI also serves mature and cyclical markets, so the growth opportunity must be balanced against electronics cycles, metals prices, global manufacturing activity, regulation, and competition.
At $39.82, standalone valuation was demanding on reported earnings and free cash flow, with about 50.4x FY2025 GAAP EPS, 65.3x TTM EPS, 79.6x TTM free cash flow, and a 1.26% TTM free cash flow yield. The apparent margin of safety is therefore mainly the merger formula and the chance of closing, not a large standalone earnings discount.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESI reference price | $39.82 closing price on July 10, 2026 | Macrotrends price history and Investing.com historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.70 billion calculated from $39.82 x 243.61 million shares; StockAnalysis reported $9.58 billion on an earlier July snapshot, a 1.26% timestamp variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 243.61 million shares; Q1 2026 diluted weighted average was 243.7 million | StockAnalysis statistics and ESI Q1 2026 filing | July 12, 2026 |
| Merger consideration | $10.00 cash plus 0.500 SOLS shares per ESI share; announced implied value about $50.10 and expected close in the first half of 2027 | Solstice and ESI merger announcement; SEC Form 8-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Live merger formula check | SOLS July 10 close $61.30 implied $40.65 per ESI share, about 2.1% above the $39.82 ESI close before costs and timing | SOLS investor historical prices and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.551 billion, with 6% organic growth | ESI FY2025 annual report, IR snapshot, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment mix | Electronics $1.786 billion and Specialties $765.0 million, about 70% and 30% of total sales | ESI FY2025 annual report and IR snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings and free cash flow | $191 million net income, $0.79 GAAP diluted EPS, and $227.6 million free cash flow from $289.8 million operating cash flow less $62.2 million capital expenditures | SEC FY2025 annual report, IR snapshot, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted operating result | $547.6 million company adjusted EBITDA and $1.49 adjusted EPS; StockAnalysis standardized EBITDA was $493.4 million under a different definition | ESI FY2025 IR snapshot and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $840.0 million sales, $56.0 million net income, $162.3 million adjusted EBITDA, and $0.41 adjusted EPS; organic sales growth was 10% | ESI Q1 2026 results release and SEC Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $665 million to $685 million adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS growth in the high teens, based on current exchange rates and metal prices | ESI Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | $177.3 million cash, $2.171 billion total debt, and $1.994 billion net debt | ESI Q1 2026 results release, SEC Form 10-Q, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | About 50.4x FY2025 GAAP EPS, 65.3x TTM EPS, 79.6x TTM FCF, 3.55x book value, and 0.80% indicated dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $43.03, 200-day MA $32.94, RSI 41.54, beta 1.23, and 20-day average volume about 6.09 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical support and resistance | Support $38.00 to $38.08, $37.14, and $35.62; resistance $41.12 to $42.05 and $42.32 to $43.57 | StockInvest July 8 technical snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and intellectual property | Benjamin Gliklich is CEO, Carey Dorman is CFO, about 5,200 full-time employees were reported at FY2025 year end, and about 2,600 patents were owned, pending, or licensed | ESI FY2025 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
This ESI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if SOLS changes, the merger is delayed or terminated, approvals fail, ESI operations change, or market conditions shift.
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