Ero Copper Corp. research snapshot
ERO AI stock analysis currently reads Ero Copper as a mid-cap copper mining company that operates the Caraiba copper-gold-silver complex in Bahia, Brazil, and is advancing the Furnas and Boa Esperanca growth projects. The July 13, 2026 price reference is $25.58, with a reported market capitalization of $2.63 billion. Q1 2026 results showed adjusted EPS of $0.69 versus consensus $0.56, revenue of $263.2 million (+110% YoY), and copper production of 17,287 tonnes (+40% YoY). The ERO AI stock forecast depends on copper prices, project execution at Furnas and Boa Esperanca, Brazilian tax and regulatory conditions, and the premium or discount the market assigns to copper equities. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$25.58 intraday reference
Market cap
$2.63 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
High-growth copper producer with expanding production, strong margins, single-country concentration, and commodity-cycle risk
Trend status
Corrective, down from the January 2026 all-time high near $39.80, but above the 52-week low of $12.79
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ERO produces high-grade copper concentrate from the Caraiba operations in Brazil, with gold and silver by-products. The business benefits from favorable geology, an underground mine with an expanding mine life, and a growth project pipeline at Furnas and Boa Esperanca. | Medium |
| Moat | Competitive advantages include high-grade underground copper reserves, long mine life potential, and operating experience in Brazil. Barriers are moderate: copper is a commodity, rivals can develop their own projects, and country risk limits moat durability. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Makko DeFilippo and the team have delivered production growth and exploration success. Q1 2026 results beat consensus, and the company continues to invest in Furnas and Boa Esperanca. Key tests include capital allocation discipline and project execution against timelines. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew to an estimated $924 million (TTM), with net income of $292 million. Q1 2026 revenue of $263 million was up 110% YoY. Cash generation has been strong, though capital spending on expansion projects reduces free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $25.58, financial_rigor.py calculates about 9.69x TTM EPS, 2.49x book value, 56.84x levered FCF, and 2.84x revenue. The three-year mechanical model outputs roughly $63.90 in a bullish case, $35.10 in a base case, and $15.80 in a bearish case. The forward P/E of 6.59x reflects growth expectations. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ERO hit an all-time high near $39.80 in January 2026 and has since corrected to the $25 range. The 52-week low is $12.79. RSI around 40-45 describes neutral-to-bearish momentum. Key levels include $20 support (prior consolidation) and $30-$32 resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated: single-country (Brazil) operations, copper price volatility, foreign exchange exposure to the Brazilian real, one-mine concentration at Caraiba until Boa Esperanca ramps up, and reliance on equity and debt markets for growth capital. | High |
| AI confidence | Source-backed descriptive confidence is medium-high. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because copper equities can reprice quickly on spot commodity moves, macro concerns about China demand, or project-level events. The wide 52-week range confirms high realized volatility. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ERO offers exposure to growing copper production in a copper-intensive global energy transition, but at a price that already embeds successful project execution. A meaningful margin of safety would require either a lower entry price, stronger evidence of Furnas/Boa Esperanca execution, or higher confidence in sustained copper prices above $4/lb. | Low-medium |
ERO AI stock forecast
The ERO AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. Using the July 13, 2026 $25.58 reference, $2.64 TTM EPS, and a three-year audited mechanical model, outputs are about $63.90 in a bullish case, $35.10 in a base case, and $15.80 in a bearish case. Yahoo Finance listed a $34.20 average analyst target. The model should be read as a sensitivity framework rather than a target.
$55 to $64 before dilution
More likely if copper prices sustain above $4.50/lb, the Furnas and Boa Esperanca projects are completed on time and on budget, production doubles from current levels, and the market re-rates ERO to a higher earnings multiple in line with growing mid-cap copper producers.
$30 to $40
Likely if copper prices remain near current levels around $4.00-$4.30/lb, production growth continues at Caraiba, Furnas development proceeds with minor delays, and valuation multiples remain in the 9-11x earnings range consistent with single-country copper miners.
$12 to $20
More likely if copper prices decline below $3.50/lb due to a global economic slowdown, project delays or cost overruns at Furnas, adverse Brazilian tax or regulatory changes, or a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real.
ERO AI technical analysis
ERO technical analysis as of July 13, 2026 shows a stock that peaked near $39.80 in January 2026 and has since corrected approximately 36%. The stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Support levels are identified at $20 (prior consolidation zone) and $15 (post-correction lows). Resistance levels are at $30 (prior support turned resistance) and $35-$40 (the January high zone). RSI is in neutral territory around 40-45, suggesting no extreme oversold signal yet. Volume has been elevated during the correction, indicating distribution.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Major resistance | $35 to $40 | The January 2026 all-time high and prior accumulation zone. A break above this level would signal a potential trend reversal. Data as of July 13, 2026. |
| Intermediate resistance | $30 | Prior support level from late 2025 that has become resistance. Clearing this level with volume would be a positive technical signal. Data as of July 13, 2026. |
| Current price zone | $24 to $26 | Trading in a range after the sharp correction from $40. This zone may offer accumulation opportunities for dip buyers. Data as of July 13, 2026. |
| Intermediate support | $20 | A prior consolidation zone from July-September 2025. This level represents a critical support for bulls to defend. Data as of July 13, 2026. |
| Major support | $12 to $15 | The 52-week low of $12.79 and the 2024 trading range. A break below this would invalidate the long-term bullish structure. Data as of July 13, 2026. |
| Moving averages | 50-day ~$30, 200-day ~$26 | Both moving averages are trending down, and price is below both, indicating a bearish medium-term trend. Data as of July 13, 2026. |
ERO AI trading strategy
The ERO AI trading strategy framework below is for informational reference only, not personalized advice. ERO exhibits high beta (1.58) and trades more on copper price direction and company-specific execution news than on broad equity index moves. Position sizing should account for commodity volatility, Brazil country risk, and the single-asset nature of the business.
Wait for a confirmed break above $30 with above-average volume, or a copper price catalyst (China stimulus, supply disruption, or dollar weakness). Entry ideally above the 50-day moving average with RSI above 50. Consider using a trailing stop of 15-20% to capture the commodity upside.
Stop-loss: below $20 or the 200-day moving average, whichever comes first. Reduce position size if copper falls below $3.80/lb. Monitor Brazilian real exchange rate and tax policy changes.
Look for accumulation signals near the $20 support zone, such as bullish RSI divergence, above-average volume on up days, or bullish chart patterns (double bottom, hammer). Entry when technical signals align with constructive copper market fundamentals.
Stop-loss: below $18 or $12.79 (52-week low), depending on risk tolerance. Allocate only a small position given the counter-trend nature of the trade. Risk-off if copper prices break below $3.50/lb.
Build a position incrementally during price weakness near $20-$25. Monitor quarterly production reports, Furnas and Boa Esperanca project milestones, and copper market supply-demand balances as structural catalysts. Use the AI Stock Picker and Pine Script Builder to define entry and exit conditions.
Keep position size consistent with a diversified portfolio. Re-allocate if copper thesis weakens materially, if Brazil country risk escalates, or if project timelines slip by more than 12 months.
Investment research summary
Ero Copper is a pure-play copper producer with its core Caraiba underground mine in Brazil. Customers are global copper smelters and traders. The business is paid for producing high-grade copper concentrate at competitive all-in sustaining costs. The growth strategy involves expanding Caraiba throughput and developing the Furnas and Boa Esperanca deposits.
ERO has moderate competitive advantages: high-grade reserves, operating history in Brazil, and exploration upside. However, copper is a fungible commodity, and pricing power is limited. The moat is narrower than diversified miners like FCX or SCCO because of single-country and single-asset concentration. The real moat lies in the quality of the resource and the ability to grow production at attractive costs.
Worst-case thesis failure paths include: (1) copper enters a multi-year bear market below $3/lb, making high-cost expansions uneconomic; (2) Furnas and Boa Esperanca encounter severe cost overruns or delays; (3) adverse Brazilian regulatory or tax changes affect mining economics; (4) a major currency crisis in Brazil erodes USD-denominated returns; (5) single-mine operational incident at Caraiba disrupts all cash flow.
CEO Makko DeFilippo has led the company through significant production growth since its IPO in 2017. Q1 2026 results demonstrated operational momentum. Management has shown exploration skill with the Furnas discovery. Key concerns include capital allocation during the growth phase and maintaining balance sheet discipline while funding multiple projects.
Copper is positioned as a long-term beneficiary of the global energy transition, electrification, and AI-driven data center buildout. Industry analysts project a structural copper deficit by the late 2020s. ERO occupies a favorable position as a growing mid-cap producer in a supply-constrained market, but is exposed to short-term demand weakness from China and global industrial cycles.
At $25.58, ERO trades at 9.69x TTM earnings and 6.59x forward earnings. At the consensus analyst target of $34.20, upside is approximately 34%. The three-scenario model shows a base case of $35.10, suggesting the stock is reasonably valued if copper prices hold and projects execute. The bear case of $15.80 indicates that a commodity downturn could lead to substantial downside. Margin of safety is limited at current levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current stock price | $25.58 (intraday) | TradingView | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.63 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $3.23 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E | 9.69x | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 6.59x | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.64 | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $923.93 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $292.27 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Price/Book | 2.49x | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.22x | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $91.21 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Debt/Equity | 54.79% | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 31.63% | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| ROE (TTM) | 32.48% | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y monthly) | 1.58 | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $12.79 - $39.80 | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst 1y target | $34.20 (average), range $27.17 - $42.59 | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | ~103 million (est.) | TradingView / Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adj. EPS | $0.69 (beat consensus of $0.56) | Yahoo Finance / Investor presentation | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $263.2 million (+110% YoY) | Yahoo Finance / Investor presentation | July 13, 2026 |
This ERO AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All data, forecasts, scenarios, technical levels, and trading strategy frameworks are based on publicly available information and mechanical models as of July 13, 2026, and may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copper mining investments involve substantial risks including commodity price volatility, country risk, operational risk, and currency fluctuation. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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