Ero Copper Corp. research snapshot
ERO AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Ero Copper Corp. as a high-growth, Brazil-focused copper producer that operates the Caraiba and Tucuma copper operations, the Xavantina gold operation, and is advancing the Furnas copper-gold growth project. The stock closed at $27.37 on August 3, 2026, up 0.46 or 1.71% from the $26.91 July 31 close, after opening at $26.53 and trading in a session range of $26.28 to $27.40, carrying a market capitalization near $2.80 billion that matches a price-times-shares check within the acceptable tolerance. TTM revenue was $923.93 million with net income of $292.27 million and EPS of $2.80, while FY2025 revenue was $785.84 million, up 67.11% from the prior year. Q1 2026 revenue of $263.2 million was up about 110% year over year with adjusted net income of $0.69 per share, and net debt fell to $490.7 million with net leverage near 1.0x. The ERO AI stock forecast depends on copper prices, project execution at Furnas and Boa Esperanca, Brazilian tax and currency conditions, and the premium or discount the market assigns to copper equities. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$27.37 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.46 or 1.71% from the $26.91 July 31 close, after opening at $26.53 and trading in a session range of $26.28 to $27.40, with an after-hours quote of $27.15, down 0.22 or 0.80%
Market cap
$2.80 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching a price-times-shares check of $27.37 times 104.28 million shares outstanding at a 1.93% deviation within the acceptable tolerance
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-growth Brazilian copper producer with a deleveraging balance sheet, improving margins, and a modest valuation
Trend status
Recovering within a broader uptrend after a sharp June pullback, trading just above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $27.24 and well above the 52-week low of $13.37
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ERO produces high-grade copper concentrate from the Caraiba and Tucuma operations in Brazil, with gold and silver by-products, and TTM revenue near $923.93 million with a 42.75% gross margin and a 34.24% operating margin. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Competitive advantages include high-grade underground copper reserves, long mine-life potential, and operating experience in Brazil. Barriers are moderate: copper is a commodity, rivals can develop their own projects, and country risk limits moat durability. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Makko DeFilippo and the team have delivered production growth, exploration success, and deleveraging, with net debt down to $490.7 million and net leverage near 1.0x at the end of Q1 2026. Key tests include capital allocation discipline and execution at Furnas and Boa Esperanca. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $923.93 million with net income of $292.27 million and EPS of $2.80. FY2025 revenue rose 67.11% to $785.84 million, Q1 2026 revenue was $263.2 million up about 110% year over year, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow was $92.8 million. Free cash flow is still constrained by expansion capital spending near $283.71 million over TTM. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $27.37, financial_rigor.py calculates about 9.78x TTM EPS, 2.60x book value, 20.58x trailing FCF, and 3.09x revenue, matching StockAnalysis.com ratios near 9.76x PE, 2.54x PB, and 20.17x P/FCF. The three-year mechanical model outputs roughly $65.60 in a bullish case, $35.40 in a base case, and $16.80 in a bearish case. The forward P/E near 6.6x reflects growth expectations. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ERO corrected from the January 2026 all-time high near $39.80, fell to a low near $23.84 in early July 2026, and recovered to $27.37. The stock trades just above the 50-day moving average near $27.23 and the 200-day near $27.26, with 14-day RSI near 55.10 on StockAnalysis.com statistics. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated: single-country Brazil operations, copper price volatility, foreign exchange exposure to the Brazilian real, one-main-asset concentration until Boa Esperanca ramps up, and reliance on copper prices and project delivery for growth. High beta of 1.58 and a 16.19% single-day drop in June 2026 confirm elevated realized volatility. | High |
| AI confidence | Source-backed descriptive confidence is medium-high. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because copper equities can reprice quickly on spot commodity moves, macro concerns about China demand, or project-level events. The wide 52-week range of $13.37 to $39.80 confirms high realized volatility. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ERO offers exposure to growing copper production in a copper-intensive global energy transition, but at a price that already embeds successful project execution. A meaningful margin of safety would require either a lower entry price, stronger evidence of Furnas and Boa Esperanca execution, or higher confidence in sustained copper prices above $4 per pound. | Low-medium |
ERO AI stock forecast
The ERO AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. Using the August 3, 2026 reference price of $27.37, TTM EPS of $2.80, and a three-year mechanical model, outputs are about $65.60 in a bullish case, $35.40 in a base case, and $16.80 in a bearish case. StockAnalysis.com listed a $35.87 average analyst target across 18 analysts with a low of $33 and a high of $40.60. The model should be read as a sensitivity framework rather than a target.
$55 to $66 before dilution
More likely if copper prices sustain above $4.50 per pound, Furnas and Boa Esperanca advance on schedule, production grows at a high single-digit to double-digit annual rate, and the market re-rates ERO toward a higher earnings multiple in line with growing mid-cap copper producers.
$30 to $40
Likely if copper prices remain near current levels, production growth continues across Caraiba and Tucuma, Furnas development proceeds with minor delays, and valuation multiples remain in the 9 to 11x earnings range consistent with single-country copper miners.
$12 to $20
More likely if copper prices decline below $3.50 per pound due to a global economic slowdown, project delays or cost overruns at Furnas or Boa Esperanca, adverse Brazilian tax or regulatory changes, or a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real.
ERO AI technical analysis
ERO technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows a stock that peaked near $39.80 in January 2026, corrected through the spring, dropped to a low near $23.84 in early July 2026, and recovered to $27.37. The 5-day moving average computed from StockAnalysis.com daily closes is near $26.44 and the 20-day moving average is near $25.69, while StockAnalysis.com statistics reports the 50-day at $27.23 and the 200-day at $27.26, so the stock sits just above all four. RSI is neutral near 55.10. The June 5, 2026 session showed a 16.19% single-day drop, so volatility is elevated and volume should be watched for breakout quality.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Major resistance | $30 to $32 | The June 2026 rebound zone with the $30.45 June 22 close and the $32.20 June 2 close. A break above this zone would signal renewed strength. Data as of August 3, 2026. |
| Intermediate resistance | $28.85 to $29.40 | The late May and mid-June consolidation area. Clearing this with volume would be a positive technical signal. Data as of August 3, 2026. |
| Current price zone | $26 to $27.40 | Trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July low near $23.84. This zone may offer accumulation opportunities on pullbacks. Data as of August 3, 2026. |
| Intermediate support | $25.69 | The 20-day moving average computed from StockAnalysis.com daily closes, an immediate support reference for pullbacks. Data as of August 3, 2026. |
| Major support | $23.84 | The early July 2026 closing low. A break below this level would weaken the recovery structure. Data as of August 3, 2026. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $27.23, 200-day $27.26 | Both moving averages are near the current price, and the stock sits just above them, indicating a neutral-to-slightly-bullish medium-term posture. Data as of August 3, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55.1 | The 14-day RSI was near 55.10 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral with a slight bullish tilt. |
| Volume | About 815,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 815,863 shares on August 3, 2026; the August 3 session showed about 401,684 shares traded, below the average, so breakout days need confirmation on above-average volume. |
| Volatility | High | Beta is 1.58 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, the 52-week range spans $13.37 to $39.80, and the June 5, 2026 session fell 16.19%, so position sizing should account for large swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23.84 | A decisive close below the early July low near $23.84 would invalidate the short-term recovery and reopen the path toward lower support zones. |
ERO AI trading strategy
The ERO AI trading strategy framework below is for informational reference only, not personalized advice. ERO exhibits high beta near 1.58 and trades more on copper price direction, Brazilian real moves, and company-specific execution news than on broad equity index moves. Position sizing should account for commodity volatility, Brazil country risk, and the concentrated asset profile.
Wait for a confirmed break above $28.85 to $29.40 with above-average volume, or a copper price catalyst such as China stimulus, supply disruption, or dollar weakness. Entry ideally with RSI above 55 and price holding the 20-day moving average near $25.69. Consider a trailing stop of 15 to 20% to capture commodity upside.
Stop-loss below $23.84 or a close back under the 20-day moving average near $25.69, whichever comes first. Reduce position size if copper falls below $3.80 per pound. Monitor Brazilian real exchange rate and tax policy changes.
Look for accumulation signals near the $24 to $25.69 support zone, such as bullish RSI divergence, above-average volume on up days, or bullish chart patterns. Entry when technical signals align with constructive copper market fundamentals and the balance sheet trend.
Stop-loss below $23.84 or the 52-week low of $13.37 depending on risk tolerance. Allocate only a small position given the counter-trend nature of the trade. Risk-off if copper prices break below $3.50 per pound.
Build a position incrementally during price weakness. Monitor quarterly production reports, Furnas and Boa Esperanca project milestones, copper market supply-demand balances, and net debt reduction as structural catalysts. Use the AI Stock Picker and Pine Script Builder to define entry and exit conditions.
Keep position size consistent with a diversified portfolio. Re-allocate if the copper thesis weakens materially, if Brazil country risk escalates, or if project timelines slip by more than 12 months.
Investment research summary
Ero Copper is a pure-play copper producer with the Caraiba underground mine and the Tucuma operation in Brazil plus the Xavantina gold operation. Customers are global copper smelters and traders. The business is paid for producing high-grade copper concentrate at competitive all-in sustaining costs, with growth from expanding Caraiba and Tucuma and developing the Furnas and Boa Esperanca deposits.
ERO has moderate competitive advantages: high-grade reserves, operating history in Brazil, and exploration upside. Copper is a fungible commodity with limited pricing power, and the moat is narrower than diversified miners because of single-country and concentrated-asset exposure. The real advantage is resource quality and the ability to grow production at attractive costs.
Worst-case thesis failure paths include: copper entering a multi-year bear market below $3 per pound, making higher-cost expansions uneconomic; Furnas and Boa Esperanca suffering severe cost overruns or delays; adverse Brazilian regulatory or tax changes; a major currency crisis in Brazil eroding USD-denominated returns; and an operational incident at a single mine disrupting cash flow.
CEO Makko DeFilippo has led the company through production growth since its 2017 IPO, delivered Q1 2026 revenue up about 110% year over year with adjusted EPS of $0.69, and reduced net debt to $490.7 million with net leverage near 1.0x. Management has shown exploration skill at Furnas, where over 75,000 meters of drilling were completed through May 2026. Key concerns are capital allocation discipline and balance sheet management while funding multiple projects.
Copper is positioned as a long-term beneficiary of the global energy transition, electrification, and AI-driven data center buildout, and industry analysts project a structural copper deficit by the late 2020s. ERO occupies a favorable position as a growing mid-cap producer in a supply-constrained market but is exposed to short-term demand weakness from China and global industrial cycles.
At $27.37, ERO trades at about 9.8x TTM earnings, near 2.6x book value, and near 6.6x forward earnings, with an average analyst target of $35.87 that implies about 31% upside. The three-scenario model shows a base case near $35.40, suggesting the stock is reasonably valued if copper prices hold and projects execute. The bear case near $16.80 shows that a commodity downturn could lead to substantial downside, so margin of safety is limited at current levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current stock price | $27.37 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.46 or 1.71% from the $26.91 July 31 close, after opening at $26.53 and trading in a session range of $26.28 to $27.40, with an after-hours quote of $27.15 down 0.22 or 0.80% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.80 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 market close, with a price-times-shares check of $27.37 times 104.28 million shares at a 1.93% deviation within the acceptable tolerance | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $3.31 billion on StockAnalysis.com statistics, with EV/EBITDA of 7.42x and EV/FCF of 23.86x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $923.93 million over the trailing twelve months, up 88.73%, matching the financials page, the statistics page, and the segment total of $923.93 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $292.27 million over the trailing twelve months, with EPS of $2.80, matching StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $785.84 million, up 67.11% from $470.26 million in FY2024, with FY2025 net income of $263.72 million and EPS of $2.53 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $263.2 million up about 110% year over year, net income attributable to owners of $108.8 million or $1.04 per diluted share, adjusted net income of $72.4 million or $0.69 per diluted share, operating cash flow of $92.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $125.2 million | Ero Copper Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 production | Consolidated copper production of 17,287 tonnes in concentrate at C1 cash costs of $2.39 per pound, with 8,826 tonnes from Caraiba and 8,461 tonnes from Tucuma, plus 5,495 ounces of gold at C1 cash costs of $2,120 per ounce | Ero Copper Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Net debt and leverage | Net debt of $490.7 million at March 31, 2026, down about $11.0 million from year-end 2025 and about $71.1 million from March 31, 2025, with a net leverage ratio near 1.0x and available liquidity of $146.2 million including $91.2 million of cash | Ero Copper Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Copper production guidance of 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes reaffirmed, with consolidated copper C1 cash costs of $2.15 to $2.35 per pound, Xavantina gold production of 40,000 to 50,000 ounces, and total capital expenditures of $275 to $320 million | Ero Copper Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Segment revenue (TTM) | Caraiba revenue of $413.55 million, Tucuma revenue of $317.39 million, and Xavantina revenue of $192.99 million over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $91.21 million and total debt of $603.44 million as of the current balance sheet, with net cash of negative $512.23 million or negative $4.91 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow (TTM) | Operating cash flow of $422.45 million, capital expenditures of negative $283.71 million, and free cash flow of $138.74 million over the trailing twelve months, with FCF per share of $1.33 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Margins | Gross margin of 42.75%, operating margin of 34.24%, pretax margin of 39.27%, profit margin of 31.63%, and EBITDA margin of 48.32% over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Return metrics | Return on equity of 32.48% and return on invested capital of 16.75% over the trailing twelve months, with a current ratio of 1.30 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE of 9.76x, forward PE of 6.58x, PS of 3.03x, forward PS of 2.17x, PB of 2.54x, P/FCF of 20.17x, and EV/EBITDA of 7.42x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $13.37 to $39.80, with a 52-week price change of +104.10% and a beta of 1.58 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 18 analysts with an average target of $35.87, a low of $33, a median of $34, and a high of $40.60, implying about 31.06% upside | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst updates | Stifel Hold at $38 on July 21, 2026; Bradesco Buy at $33 on July 20; BofA Buy at $35 on July 16; Jefferies Hold at $28 on July 13; Scotiabank Buy at $39 on June 15 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 104.28 million shares outstanding, up 0.99% year over year, with insiders owning 2.43% and institutions owning 69.92% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.58 million shares short, 3.44% of shares outstanding, 3.52% of float, and about 3.96 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Furnas project | Over 75,000 meters drilled through May 2026 with ten drill rigs operating, a PEA published February 23, 2026 outlining a 24-year mine life with average annual production of 81 kt CuEq and 108 kt CuEq over the first 15 years, and a Pre-Feasibility Study expected in 2027 | Ero Copper Furnas press release June 10, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results date | Ero Copper will release second quarter 2026 operating and financial results on August 5, 2026, after market close | Ero Copper press release July 2, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $26.44 and 20-day moving average near $25.69 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $27.23 and 200-day moving average near $27.26 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 55.10, 20-day average volume near 815,863 shares, and a 52-week range of $13.37 to $39.80 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This ERO AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All data, forecasts, scenarios, technical levels, and trading strategy frameworks are based on publicly available information and mechanical models as of August 4, 2026, and may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copper mining investments involve substantial risks including commodity price volatility, country risk, operational risk, and currency fluctuation. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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