Bullish case
$220 to $245 before dividends
More likely if copper and by-product prices remain elevated, production meets plan, expansion projects progress without large overruns, and investors sustain a high-20s earnings multiple.
Southern Copper Corporation research snapshot
SCCO AI Stock Analysis
SCCO AI stock analysis currently reads Southern Copper as an integrated copper producer with unusually large reserve life, low-cost operations in Peru and Mexico, and strong earnings leverage to copper, silver, molybdenum, and zinc prices. The July 10, 2026 analysis is not a buy signal: the last verified July 2 close was $172.01, the verified market capitalization was about $142.09 billion, and the stock priced in a constructive commodity cycle at about 28.61x trailing EPS. The SCCO AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based. Copper prices, mine output, project execution, minority-holder governance, and the valuation multiple determine the range. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$172.01 at the July 2 close
Market cap
$142.09 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-margin copper producer with exceptional reserves, concentrated ownership, and cycle-sensitive valuation risk
Trend status
Mixed after a copper-led advance, with price above the 50-day average but technical services disagree on the short-term signal
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Southern Copper has long public-company history, SEC filings, detailed quarterly releases, investor relations material, financial databases, and active market-data coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias is extrapolating a strong copper and precious-metals price period into a permanent earnings level. The counter-check is to ask whether 2026 prices normalize, output falls, costs rise, projects slip, or minority investors demand a larger governance discount.
- ai Confidence
- High for FY2025 revenue, net income, cash, debt, Q1 2026 results, share count, and market-cap math. Medium for technical levels and forward scenarios because metals prices, production, and sentiment can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The assets and reported financial data are clear, but a minority shareholder owns a commodity-linked business controlled by Grupo Mexico, with material Peru and Mexico operating exposure.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Southern Copper mines, smelts, and refines copper and sells by-products including molybdenum, silver, zinc, gold, and sulfuric acid from integrated assets in Peru and Mexico. | High |
| Moat | The moat is reserve scale, ore bodies, processing infrastructure, permitting barriers, operating know-how, and long-lived assets. It does not create control over copper prices. | Medium-high |
| Management | Grupo Mexico controlled 88.9% of capital stock at year-end 2025. That alignment supports long-term industrial ownership but creates a clear minority-holder conflict risk. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $13.42 billion and net income was $4.335 billion. Q1 2026 sales reached $4.251 billion and net income was $1.577 billion as metal prices increased. | High |
| Valuation | At the $172.01 July 2 reference price, audited input math gives about 28.61x TTM EPS, 10.79x book value, and 45.39x free cash flow per share. The price assumes strong cycle conditions. | High |
| Technical trend | Technical readings were mixed near the July 2 reference: RSI was near neutral, price was above a 50-day reference, and the stock was near but below a 200-day reference in one service. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are lower metal prices, production or grade pressure, Peru and Mexico political or permitting disruption, capex escalation, water and labor issues, and controlling-owner conflicts. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported history and lower for price targets because cyclical earnings and commodity multiples are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Exceptional reserves support the long view, but the valuation and governance structure leave less room for error than headline earnings alone suggest. | Medium-low |
SCCO AI stock forecast
SCCO AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SCCO AI stock forecast uses the $172.01 July 2 reference, TTM EPS near $6.012, and a three-year scenario calculation. The mechanical outputs are about $236.50 in the bullish case, $162.00 in the base case, and $82.50 in the bearish case before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price predictions.
Base case
$150 to $175 before dividends
More likely if earnings compound near a mid-single-digit rate, copper prices remain constructive but normalize from exceptional levels, and the market uses a low-20s multiple.
Bearish case
$75 to $95 before dividends
More likely if copper prices retreat, grades or volumes disappoint, costs or capex rise, permitting conditions worsen, or investors re-rate the stock toward a mid-teens commodity multiple.
SCCO AI technical analysis
SCCO AI Technical Analysis
SCCO AI technical analysis uses the July 2, 2026 market-data snapshot because this static page does not request live quotes. StockAnalysis listed a $172.01 close that day. Investing.com listed RSI(14) near 49.68, a 50-day moving-average reference near $150.31, and a 200-day reference near $157.43. A separate July 1 service showed a $194.32 quote with 50-day and 200-day references of $180.86 and $160.47, illustrating why levels are zones rather than exact trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $172.01 on July 2, 2026 | StockAnalysis market-cap history provided the close used for this static page. Confirm live prices before acting. |
| Near support | $157 to $160 | This zone groups the July 2 200-day moving-average reference and the July 1 long-term moving-average reference from separate technical services. |
| Secondary support | Near $150 | The July 2 50-day moving-average reference was about $150.31. A sustained close below this area would weaken the medium-term structure. |
| Near resistance | $180 to $181 | A July 1 technical service placed the 50-day average near $180.86. Reclaiming and holding this zone would improve trend confirmation. |
| Upper resistance | Near $194 | The July 1 quote reference was $194.32. A move through that area should be checked against copper prices and volume, not read in isolation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $150.31, 200-day $157.43 | July 2 readings from Investing.com. Different vendors and observation times can show different values. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 49.68 | The July 2 RSI reading was neutral, so it did not independently confirm either a breakout or a reversal. |
| Volume and volatility | Confirm with a live chart | Copper futures, silver and molybdenum prices, mine news, earnings, and Peru or Mexico policy headlines can change volume and volatility abruptly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $150 after failing to reclaim $157 to $160 | That sequence would weaken a trend-following thesis. It is a framework condition, not a personalized stop instruction. |
SCCO AI trading strategy
SCCO AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SCCO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized investment advice. It links chart zones with copper prices, production, costs, capex, balance-sheet changes, Grupo Mexico governance, and developments in Peru and Mexico.
Trend-following setup
Wait for SCCO to hold above the $157 to $160 support zone and reclaim the $180 to $181 area while copper pricing, production commentary, and volume confirm the move.
Reduce trend confidence if price closes below $150 after failing to recover $157 to $160, especially if copper weakens or management lowers production guidance.
Mean-reversion setup
If SCCO tests support while long-lived reserves, mine operations, and the metal-price backdrop remain intact, compare the valuation with normalized rather than peak-cycle earnings.
Do not treat a lower price as value if it follows weaker metal prices, operational disruption, rising capex, or a material governance event affecting minority holders.
Fundamental monitor
Track LME and COMEX copper, silver, molybdenum, and zinc prices; copper production and grades; unit costs; cash; debt; dividends; capex; Peru and Mexico permitting; and Grupo Mexico related-party governance.
Position sizing should reflect concentrated commodity exposure and minority-shareholder risk. SCCO is not a predictable earnings compounder or a guarantee against inflation.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Southern Copper for refined and concentrated metals needed in grids, construction, industry, transport, electronics, and manufacturing. The company turns scarce ore bodies, mines, concentrators, smelters, refineries, logistics, and operating expertise into commodity-linked cash flow.
Moat
The moat rests on large mineral reserves, integrated processing, scale, long-lived mines, geological knowledge, infrastructure, and the difficulty of permitting replacement copper supply. It is a supply-side advantage, not consumer-style pricing power.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if metal prices normalize, ore grades or output fall, costs rise, projects are delayed, water or labor constraints interrupt operations, Peru or Mexico policy turns less favorable, or minority holders receive less favorable treatment from the controller.
Management
Grupo Mexico owned 88.9% at December 31, 2025. Its long operating history and industrial commitment are strengths, while the same control means capital allocation, related-party judgment, and board oversight must be evaluated from a minority-holder perspective.
Industry trend
Electrification, grid investment, data-center power buildout, renewables, defense, and industrial development support long-term copper demand. The offset is a cyclical market shaped by China demand, global growth, substitution, supply additions, and volatile metal prices.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $172.01, the market value assumes favorable earnings conditions. A larger margin of safety would require either lower expectations in the share price or evidence that high metal prices, execution, and capital allocation can persist without eroding cash returns.
Source-backed data
SCCO Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quote and market-cap verification | $172.01 close and $142.09 billion calculated as $172.01 multiplied by 826.065 million shares | StockAnalysis market-cap history and SCCO Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 826,065,041 common shares as of April 29, 2026 | Southern Copper Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.420 billion, cross-checked with no material variance | Southern Copper 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $4.335 billion, cross-checked with no material variance | Southern Copper 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at year-end 2025 | $4.909 billion cash and cash equivalents; $6.751 billion total debt | Southern Copper 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends balance sheet | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $4.251 billion net sales and $1.577 billion net income attributable to SCC | Southern Copper Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| Reserves and sales mix | 108,955 million pounds of contained copper reserves; copper was 74.8% of 2025 sales | Southern Copper 2025 Form 10-K | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | July 2 RSI(14) near 49.68; 50-day reference $150.31; 200-day reference $157.43 | Investing.com SCCO technical analysis | July 10, 2026 |
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This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Markets, metals prices, operations, and regulations can change quickly, and you should verify current information and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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