Southern Copper Corporation research snapshot
SCCO AI stock analysis reads Southern Copper as an integrated copper producer with an unusually large reserve life, low-cost operations in Peru and Mexico, and record second-quarter results driven by very high copper, silver, molybdenum, and zinc prices. The analysis is not a buy signal: the last verified July 31 close was $182.71, the verified market capitalization was about $152.44 billion, and the stock trades near 27x trailing EPS after roughly doubling in a year. The SCCO AI stock forecast is scenario-based because copper prices, mine grades, project execution, a fresh CEO transition, and the valuation multiple determine the range. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$182.71 at the July 31 close
Market cap
$152.44 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Record results on a scarce copper reserve base, offset by a very stretched valuation, a CEO transition, and Sell-rated analyst consensus
Trend status
Uptrend with price above the 50-day and 200-day averages, though the stock has pulled back from a 52-week high near $221.67
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Southern Copper mines, smelts, and refines copper and sells by-products including molybdenum, silver, zinc, and sulfuric acid from integrated assets in Peru and Mexico. Q2 2026 net sales were $4.289 billion and adjusted EBITDA hit a record $2.956 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is reserve scale, ore bodies, processing infrastructure, permitting barriers, operating know-how, and long-lived assets. It does not create control over copper prices. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Oscar Gonzalez Rocha passed away in April 2026 and Leonardo Contreras Lerdo de Tejada leads as interim CEO. Grupo Mexico controlled 88.9% of capital stock, which supports long-term industrial ownership but carries minority-holder conflict risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $13.420 billion and net income was $4.334 billion. Q2 2026 sales rose 40.6% to $4.289 billion and net income attributable to SCC rose 71.6% to $1.670 billion on record metal prices. | High |
| Valuation | At the $182.71 July 31 reference, StockAnalysis lists about 27.17x trailing EPS, 12.29x book value, 29.89x free cash flow per share, and 9.66x sales. The price assumes strong cycle conditions. | High |
| Technical trend | Technical readings were constructive but extended: price sat above a 50-day reference near $181.06 and a 200-day reference near $168.46, with RSI(14) near 52.41, while the stock remained below its 52-week high near $221.67. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are lower metal prices, lower grades or volumes, project delays or cost overruns, Peru and Mexico policy shifts, the interim-CEO transition, and controlling-owner conflicts for minority holders. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported history and current market data, and lower for price targets because cyclical earnings and commodity multiples are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Exceptional reserves support the long view, but the stock has roughly doubled in a year and analysts rate it Sell with an average target below the current price, so the margin of safety is thin. | Medium-low |
SCCO AI stock forecast
The SCCO AI stock forecast uses the $182.71 July 31 reference, TTM EPS near $6.73, and a consensus near $7.74 for FY2026 EPS. Scenario outputs are about $215 to $245 in a bullish case, $155 to $185 in a base case, and $75 to $100 in a bearish case before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price predictions.
$215 to $245 before dividends
More likely if copper and by-product prices stay elevated, FY2026 EPS tracks near or above the $7.74 consensus, Tia Maria and El Pilar progress on schedule, and investors sustain a high-20s earnings multiple.
$155 to $185 before dividends
More likely if earnings compound in the low-double-digit range, copper prices remain constructive but normalize from exceptional levels, and the market uses a low-20s multiple, which is where the average analyst target near $168 sits.
$75 to $100 before dividends
More likely if copper prices retreat, grades or volumes disappoint, Tia Maria or El Pilar is delayed or over budget, Peru policy turns less favorable, or investors re-rate the stock toward a mid-teens commodity multiple.
SCCO AI technical analysis
SCCO AI technical analysis uses the August 2, 2026 data cutoff because this static page does not request live quotes. StockAnalysis listed a $182.71 close on July 31, 2026, RSI(14) near 52.41, a 50-day moving-average reference near $181.06, and a 200-day reference near $168.46. The 52-week range was $86.61 to $221.67, so the stock has roughly doubled in a year and trades about 18% below its high. Levels below are zones, not exact trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $182.71 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis provided the close used for this static page. Confirm live prices before acting. |
| Near support | $178 to $181 | This zone brackets the July 31 day low and the 50-day moving-average reference near $181.06. |
| Secondary support | $168 to $170 | The 200-day moving-average reference was near $168.46. A sustained close below this area would weaken the medium-term structure. |
| Near resistance | $185 to $195 | The prior close and round numbers sit in this zone. A move back toward the high needs copper prices and volume to confirm it. |
| Upper resistance | $200 to $222 | The 52-week high was $221.67. That zone is the top of the current extended range. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $181.06, 200-day $168.46 | August 2 readings from StockAnalysis. The price was above both references, so the medium-term structure was positive but extended. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 52.41 | The reading was neutral, so momentum did not independently confirm a breakout, and the stock had already run far above its 52-week low. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 1.12 million shares; beta 1.12 | Copper futures, silver and molybdenum prices, mine news, earnings, the CEO transition, and Peru or Mexico policy headlines can change volume and volatility abruptly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $168 after failing to hold $178 to $181 | That sequence would weaken a trend-following thesis. It is a framework condition, not a personalized stop instruction. |
SCCO AI trading strategy
The SCCO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized investment advice. It links chart zones with copper prices, production, grades, costs, capex, balance-sheet changes, Grupo Mexico governance, the interim-CEO transition, and developments in Peru and Mexico.
Wait for SCCO to hold above the $178 to $181 support zone and reclaim the $185 to $195 area while copper pricing, production commentary, and volume confirm the move.
Reduce trend confidence if price closes below $168 after failing to recover $178 to $181, especially if copper weakens or management lowers production guidance.
If SCCO tests support while long-lived reserves, mine operations, and the metal-price backdrop remain intact, compare the valuation with normalized rather than peak-cycle earnings and with the analyst consensus target.
Do not treat a lower price as value if it follows weaker metal prices, operational disruption, rising capex, project delays, or a material governance event affecting minority holders.
Track LME and COMEX copper, silver, molybdenum, and zinc prices; copper production and grades; unit costs; cash; debt; dividends; capex; Tia Maria and El Pilar progress; Peru and Mexico permitting; the interim-CEO transition; and Grupo Mexico related-party governance.
Position sizing should reflect concentrated commodity exposure and minority-shareholder risk. SCCO is not a predictable earnings compounder or a guarantee against inflation.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Southern Copper for refined and concentrated metals needed in grids, construction, industry, transport, electronics, and manufacturing. The company turns scarce ore bodies, mines, concentrators, smelters, refineries, logistics, and operating expertise into commodity-linked cash flow that set records in Q2 2026.
The moat rests on 108,955 million pounds of contained copper reserves, integrated processing, scale, long-lived mines, geological knowledge, infrastructure, and the difficulty of permitting replacement copper supply. It is a supply-side advantage, not consumer-style pricing power.
The thesis can fail if metal prices normalize, ore grades or output fall, costs rise, Tia Maria or El Pilar is delayed or over budget, water or labor constraints interrupt operations, Peru or Mexico policy turns less favorable, the interim CEO changes direction, or minority holders receive less favorable treatment from the controller.
CEO Oscar Gonzalez Rocha passed away in April 2026 and Leonardo Contreras Lerdo de Tejada now leads as interim CEO, so leadership stability is a fresh question. Grupo Mexico owned 88.9% through Americas Mining Corporation, which supports long-term industrial commitment while capital allocation, related-party judgment, and board oversight must be judged from a minority-holder perspective.
Electrification, grid investment, data-center power buildout, renewables, defense, and industrial development support long-term copper demand, and the company sees a slight 2026 copper deficit. The offset is a cyclical market shaped by China demand, global growth, substitution, supply additions, and volatile metal prices that are near records.
At $182.71, the stock trades near 27x trailing EPS and roughly 18% below its 52-week high, with an 18-analyst consensus of Sell and an average target near $168. A larger margin of safety would require either lower expectations in the share price or evidence that high metal prices, execution, and the new management team can persist without eroding cash returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quote and market-cap verification | $182.71 close on July 31, 2026 and $152.44 billion market capitalization, cross-checked as $182.71 times about 834.33 million shares | StockAnalysis SCCO overview and market-cap history | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 834,331,706 common shares as of July 2026 | Southern Copper Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $4,289.0 million net sales, $2,623.2 million operating income, and $1,670.0 million net income attributable to SCC, with $2.01 EPS | Southern Copper Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $13,420 million revenue and $4,334 million net income attributable to SCC | Southern Copper 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at June 30, 2026 | $5,665.0 million cash and cash equivalents, $1,664.9 million short-term investments, and $7,994.4 million long-term debt | Southern Copper Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Reserves and sales mix | 108,955 million pounds of contained copper reserves; copper was 74.8% of 2025 sales | Southern Copper 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Sell rating from 18 analysts with an average price target of $168.25, or about 7.9% below the July 31 close | StockAnalysis SCCO forecast and ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI(14) near 52.41; 50-day reference $181.06; 200-day reference $168.46; 52-week range $86.61 to $221.67 | StockAnalysis SCCO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production and copper market | Copper production of 230,662 tons, down 3.5% year over year, with 2026 guidance of 917,000 tons; LME copper averaged $6.04 per pound in Q2 2026 | Southern Copper Q2 2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Markets, metals prices, operations, and regulations can change quickly, and you should verify current information and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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