Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc. research snapshot
EPRT AI stock analysis reads Essential Properties Realty Trust as a disciplined net-lease REIT focused on middle-market service and experience businesses, with a long-duration portfolio, strong rent coverage, and a track record of per-share FFO growth. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, EPRT closed at $31.27 on July 31, market capitalization was about $6.8 billion, and the stock sits below its 20-day and 100-day moving averages after a roughly 8% pullback from its 100-day high. Q2 2026 results reported July 22, 2026 showed revenue of $161.9 million, up 18.1% year over year, with diluted EPS of $0.34 and EBITDA of about $153.6 million. The EPRT AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because the case depends on acquisition volume and cap rates, rent coverage, interest expense, leverage, dividend growth, and the multiple investors assign to net-lease REIT cash flows. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$31.27
Market cap
$6.8 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Well-managed net-lease REIT with long-duration leases, strong rent coverage, consistent FFO growth, and a premium valuation that leaves little room for slower acquisition volume or higher interest costs
Trend status
Weaker technical setup than July: EPRT closed below the 20-day and 100-day moving averages on July 31, with RSI near 46 and Barchart composite opinion at 8% buy
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | EPRT acquires single-tenant properties net-leased on a long-term basis to middle-market companies running service-oriented and experience-based businesses. The portfolio held about 2,266 properties across 645 concepts in 48 states as of late 2025, about 99.8% leased, with a weighted average lease term of 14.4 years and rent coverage of 3.6x. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-duration net leases with strong rent coverage, tenant diversification across concepts and geographies, disciplined middle-market underwriting, and a sale-leaseback origination network. It is moderate because net-lease REIT capital is competitive and the model can be replicated by well-capitalized peers. | Medium |
| Management | Management has shown disciplined capital allocation through consistent acquisition activity, prudent leverage, and regular dividend increases, growing the portfolio from zero to more than 2,200 properties since 2018. The current test is whether the team can keep producing accretive acquisitions while the share count grows about 10.5% per year. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $561.2 million with 24.8% growth, and Q2 2026 revenue reached $161.9 million, up 18.1% year over year, with net income of $74.3 million and diluted EPS of $0.34. TTM revenue through June 2026 was about $615.5 million with TTM net income near $267 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.27, verified math showed 24.24x trailing P/E, 1.53x book value, about 11.0x sales, and a 4.09% dividend yield. Using an FFO proxy of about $2.02, the three-scenario model produced about $40.70 in the bull case, $32.30 in the base case, and $22.20 in the bear case. | Medium |
| Technical trend | EPRT closed at $31.27 on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day moving average of $31.91 and the 100-day moving average of $31.37, above the 50-day moving average of $31.02, and near the 200-day moving average of $31.22. RSI around 46 is neutral to slightly weak, and the Barchart composite opinion reads about 8% buy. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium for business quality but elevated for valuation and share dilution. The company carries roughly $2.9 billion in total debt with a debt to EBITDA ratio near 5.4x, short interest of about 8.2% of shares outstanding has been rising, and the current multiple leaves limited room for FFO growth disappointment. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for company-reported Q2 2026 and FY2025 financials, market cap math, share count, dividend data, analyst targets, and Barchart technical indicators; medium for future acquisition volume, rent coverage, interest expense, and terminal valuation multiples. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. EPRT is a solid business with clear strategy and consistent execution, but the margin of safety is thin because the price already assumes continued FFO growth and a stable REIT multiple while share dilution runs near 10.5% per year. | Medium |
EPRT AI stock forecast
The EPRT AI stock forecast uses FFO per share, acquisition volume and cap rates, rent coverage, leverage, net debt, interest rates, dividend growth, share issuance, and trend quality rather than a single price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if EPRT keeps acquiring at accretive yields, rent coverage stays near 3.6x, interest costs remain manageable, and the market holds a 14x to 16x FFO multiple for growth net-lease REITs. The bearish case becomes more likely if acquisition volume slows, cap rate spreads compress, interest costs rise, the share count keeps growing faster than per-share FFO, or the stock rerates toward slower-growing REIT peers.
$38 to $43
More likely if FFO per share compounds near 8% annually for three years, EPRT sustains acquisition volume at accretive yields, rent coverage stays strong, leverage stays below 5.5x net debt to EBITDA, and the market applies about a 16x FFO proxy multiple. The verified model produced about $40.70.
$30 to $34
More likely if per-share FFO growth moderates toward 4% to 5% because share issuance outpaces total FFO growth, acquisition volume normalizes, and the market applies about a 14x FFO proxy multiple. The verified model base case was about $32.30.
$20 to $24
More likely if FFO growth stalls near zero, interest rates pressure net-lease REIT multiples, acquisition activity slows sharply, tenant credit weakens, or the share count grows faster than cash flow. The verified bear model produced about $22.20 using flat FFO and an 11x terminal multiple.
EPRT AI technical analysis
EPRT AI technical analysis starts from the $31.27 close on July 31, 2026, the last completed session before the August 3 cutoff. The stock is below the 20-day moving average of $31.91 and the 100-day moving average of $31.37, above the 50-day moving average of $31.02, and just above the 200-day moving average of $31.22. RSI at about 46 on the 14-day timeframe is neutral to slightly weak, down from the mid-50s in July, and the Barchart composite opinion fell to about 8% buy. Barchart shows first resistance at $31.43, second at $31.56, and third at $31.77, with first support at $31.09, second at $30.88, and third at $30.75. Technical levels should be checked against the October 21, 2026 earnings date, interest rate moves, and any update to acquisition or FFO guidance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.27 | Closing price on July 31, 2026, used for this page and market cap verification. The intraday quote on August 3 was near $31.21. |
| Near support | $31.09 | First pivot support from Barchart. Holding this level keeps the short-term trend neutral to slightly positive after the recent pullback. |
| Secondary support | $30.88 to $31.02 | This zone covers the second pivot support and the 50-day moving average. A break below would weaken the short-term technical setup. |
| Long-term support | $28.95 to $29.50 | This area sits between the 52-week low of $28.95 and a round number psychological level. A decisive break would challenge the longer-term bullish case. |
| Resistance | $31.43 to $31.56 | This zone lines up with the first and second pivot resistance levels from Barchart. A clean break with volume would be a constructive short-term signal. |
| Higher resistance | $31.77 to $33.00 | This area corresponds to the third pivot resistance and the upper range of recent price discovery before the stock pulled back toward the 100-day moving average. |
| 20-day moving average | $31.91 | Barchart reports EPRT below this short-term trend line. Regaining it would be the first positive short-term signal. |
| 50-day moving average | $31.02 | EPRT holds above this medium-term trend line at the time of this analysis, which keeps the intermediate picture from turning negative. |
| 100-day moving average | $31.37 | EPRT is below this medium-term trend line. Barchart shows a 100-day price change of about -8.4%, reflecting the recent drawdown. |
| 200-day moving average | $31.22 | EPRT sits right at this longer-term trend line. Holding it matters for the medium-term technical case. |
| Momentum | RSI about 46 (14-day) | Momentum is neutral to slightly weak. A move above 70 would suggest overbought conditions, while a move below 30 would suggest oversold territory. |
| Volume | 20-day average 1.62 million shares | Breakouts above $31.43 are more reliable if daily volume exceeds the 20-day average on up days. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.90, 14-day historical volatility about 27% | Beta is below the broad market, but REITs can still reprice quickly when interest rate expectations or FFO guidance change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $30.75 or lower FFO guidance | A break below the third pivot support and the 50-day moving average, combined with lower FFO guidance, weaker acquisition volume, or rising interest costs, would weaken the base case. |
EPRT AI trading strategy
The EPRT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through price versus moving averages, the next earnings date on October 21, 2026, FFO per share guidance, acquisition volume and cap rates, rent coverage trends, debt metrics, interest expense, dividend growth, and the pace of share issuance.
Track whether EPRT can reclaim the 20-day moving average near $31.91 and then clear the $31.43 to $31.56 resistance zone with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q3 2026 results show FFO per share growth, maintained acquisition volume, and stable rent coverage.
Reduce confidence if the stock loses the 50-day moving average, closes below $30.88, or rallies into earnings without FFO and acquisition guidance support. Rising short interest near 8.2% of shares can add volatility to downside moves.
Use pullbacks toward the $30.88 to $31.02 support area as a watchlist condition only if rent coverage, acquisition yields, leverage, FFO payout, and the pace of share issuance remain sound.
Do not treat the premium net-lease multiple as permanent. If the market lowers the terminal FFO proxy multiple below 13x, a healthy business can still deliver a negative stock outcome from an expensive entry.
Track FFO per share, acquisition volume and cap rates, rent coverage, net debt to EBITDA, interest coverage, dividend per share growth, share count growth, and same-store rent growth.
A mix of lower FFO guidance, weaker acquisition volume, rising interest costs, faster share dilution, tenant credit deterioration, and a close below the 200-day moving average would override a bullish setup.
Investment research summary
Essential Properties is paid because middle-market service and experience businesses need real estate capital through sale-leaseback transactions. EPRT turns those long-term net lease cash flows into rent, FFO, dividends, and new acquisition capacity.
The moat is built from long-duration net leases (14.4-year WALT), strong rent coverage (3.6x), tenant diversification (645 concepts in 48 states), and a disciplined middle-market origination network. The moat can narrow if competing capital drives cap rates lower or if economic stress reduces tenant credit quality.
The thesis can fail if EPRT overpays for acquisitions in a competitive market, interest rate normalization compresses spreads, tenant credit deterioration raises vacancy, the stock market reduces the multiple for net-lease REITs, or rapid share issuance dilutes per-share FFO growth faster than acquisitions add cash flow.
Management has demonstrated disciplined capital allocation since the 2018 IPO, growing the portfolio from zero to more than 2,200 properties while raising the dividend regularly. The next test is whether the team can sustain acquisition volume and yield spreads while the share count grows about 10.5% per year.
The long-term trend supports net-lease real estate as businesses seek to unlock capital by selling owned properties to REITs. The near-term cycle depends on interest rate direction, cap rate spreads versus corporate bond yields, middle-market tenant health, and the availability of acquisition capital.
The verified scenario model produced about $40.70 in the bull case, $32.30 in the base case, and $22.20 in the bear case using an FFO proxy of about $2.02. The margin of safety is thin because the current price already assumes continued FFO growth and a stable REIT multiple, while share dilution and an 8.2% short position add downside sensitivity.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPRT price | $31.27 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $6.8 billion, verified as $31.27 x about 216.8 million shares with 0.29% variance against Yahoo reported value; StockAnalysis lists $6.82 billion with 218.05 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 216.8 million diluted shares per Yahoo math; StockAnalysis lists 218.05 million shares, up 10.49% year over year; FY2025 end shares were 209.88 million | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $615.5 million through June 2026, cross-validated between WallStreetZen and Yahoo Finance | WallStreetZen revenue page | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $161.9 million, up 18.1% year over year, net income $74.3 million, diluted EPS $0.34, EBITDA about $153.6 million | Barchart income statement (quarterly) and WallStreetZen | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $266.6 million per Yahoo and StockAnalysis; WallStreetZen lists $267.8 million; cross-validated within 0.45% | Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, WallStreetZen | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | $126.17 million cash, about $2.92 billion total debt, about $2.80 billion net cash deficit, debt to EBITDA near 5.4x, interest coverage about 3.1x | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 24.24x trailing P/E, 1.53x P/B, about 11.0x P/S, 4.09% dividend yield, all verified with financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value metrics | About $9.55 billion enterprise value, 15.52x EV/Revenue, 17.10x EV/EBITDA per Yahoo; StockAnalysis lists EV of $9.62 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day MA $31.91, 50-day MA $31.02, 100-day MA $31.37, 200-day MA $31.22, RSI about 46, beta 0.90, 14-day historical volatility about 27% | Barchart technical analysis page | August 3, 2026 |
| Pivot support and resistance | S1 $31.09, S2 $30.88, S3 $30.75; R1 $31.43, R2 $31.56, R3 $31.77 | Barchart opinion page | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull $40.70 (8% FFO growth, 16x), Base $32.30 (4.5% FFO growth, 14x), Bear $22.20 (0% FFO growth, 11x) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.28 per share annualized ($0.32 quarterly, 4.09% forward yield, about 5.1% dividend growth year over year, 7 years of dividend growth, ex-dividend June 30, 2026) | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 17.94 million shares short, 8.23% of shares outstanding, up from 15.45 million in the prior month, 8.62 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This EPRT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and can be wrong if Essential Properties Realty Trust fundamentals, interest rates, capital markets, tenant credit quality, share issuance, or investor sentiment change.
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