Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc. research snapshot
EPRT AI stock analysis currently reads Essential Properties Realty Trust as a well-managed net-lease REIT with a focused middle-market strategy, a long-duration portfolio with strong rent coverage, consistent per-share AFFO growth, and a disciplined capital allocation track record. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, EPRT closed at $31.18 on July 10, market capitalization was about $6.76 billion, and the stock trades in a mixed technical zone between its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The EPRT AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on acquisition volume and yield spreads, rent coverage trends, interest rates, leverage, dividend growth, and the multiple investors assign to net-lease REIT cash flows. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$31.18
Market cap
$6.76 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality net-lease REIT with strong rent coverage, long lease duration, consistent AFFO growth, and a premium valuation that partly discounts the growth story
Trend status
Mixed technical signals: above the 50-day MA but below the 100-day MA, with the 200-day MA providing a long-term support floor
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | EPRT acquires single-tenant properties net-leased on a long-term basis to middle-market companies running service-oriented and experience-based businesses. The portfolio has 2,266 properties across 645 concepts in 48 states, 99.8% leased, with a weighted average lease term of 14.4 years and rent coverage of 3.6x. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-term net leases with strong rent coverage, tenant diversification across concepts and geographies, disciplined middle-market underwriting, and a sale-leaseback origination network. It is moderate because net-lease REIT capital is competitive and the model is replicable by well-capitalized peers. | Medium |
| Management | Management has shown disciplined capital allocation through consistent acquisition volume, prudent leverage management, and regular dividend increases. The team has grown the portfolio from zero to over 2,200 properties since 2018 while maintaining stable credit metrics. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $561.2 million with 24.8% YoY growth and net income of about $253 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $158.8 million and net income was $59.8 million. The company has grown AFFO per share consistently through portfolio expansion and margin discipline. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.18, verified math showed 24.55x trailing P/E, 1.54x book value, 10.73x sales, and a 4.11% dividend yield. Using FFO proxy of about $1.87, the three-scenario model produced about $47.30 in the bull case, $34.40 in the base case, and $22.40 in the bear case. | Medium |
| Technical trend | EPRT trades at its pivot level of $31.18, above the 20-day MA ($30.47) and 50-day MA ($30.70), near the 200-day MA ($31.02), and below the 100-day MA ($31.58). RSI around 56 is neutral. The Barchart composite opinion reads 32% sell, with mixed short and medium term signals. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium for business quality but elevated for valuation. The company carries about $2.51 billion in long-term debt with manageable leverage, but higher interest rates pressure acquisition spreads, and the current valuation leaves limited room for AFFO growth disappointments. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for company-reported FY2025 and Q1 2026 financials, market cap math, shares outstanding, dividend data, and technical indicators from Barchart; medium for future acquisition volume, rent coverage trends, interest expense, and terminal valuation multiples. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. EPRT looks like a solid business with a clear strategy and consistent execution, but the margin of safety depends on AFFO compounding fast enough to justify the current premium to net-lease REIT peers. | Medium |
EPRT AI stock forecast
The EPRT AI stock forecast uses AFFO per share, acquisition volume and yield spreads, rent coverage, leverage, net debt to EBITDA, interest rates, dividend growth, share issuance, and trend quality rather than a single price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if EPRT keeps acquiring at accretive yields, rent coverage stays above 3.5x, interest costs remain manageable, and the market maintains a 15x+ FFO multiple for high-growth net-lease REITs. The bearish case becomes more likely if interest rates rise further, acquisition yields compress, tenant credit deteriorates, or the stock rerates toward slower-growth REIT peers.
$42 to $48
More likely if AFFO per share compounds near 12% annually for three years, EPRT maintains acquisition volume above $1 billion per year at accretive yields, rent coverage remains strong, leverage stays below 6x net debt to EBITDA, and the market applies about an 18x FFO proxy multiple. The verified model produced about $47.30.
$33 to $36
More likely if 2026 AFFO tracks the guided growth trajectory, per-share growth moderates toward 7%, acquisition volume normalizes, and the market applies about a 15x FFO proxy multiple. The verified model base case was about $34.40.
$20 to $24
More likely if AFFO growth stalls near zero, interest rates pressure net-lease REIT multiples, acquisition activity slows significantly, or tenant credit quality weakens. The verified bear model produced about $22.40 using flat FFO and a 12x terminal multiple.
EPRT AI technical analysis
EPRT AI technical analysis starts from the $31.18 close on July 10, 2026. The stock is above the 20-day moving average of $30.47 and 50-day moving average of $30.70, slightly above the 200-day moving average of $31.02, but below the 100-day moving average of $31.58. RSI at about 56 on the 14-day timeframe is neutral and not signaling overbought or oversold conditions. Barchart shows pivot support at $30.94 and resistance at $31.41. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for July 22, 2026, interest rate moves, and any updates to acquisition guidance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.18 | Closing price on July 10, 2026 used for this page and market cap verification. |
| Near support | $30.90 to $30.95 | This pivot support level from Barchart aligns with the first standard support calculation. Holding it keeps the short-term trend neutral to slightly positive. |
| Secondary support | $30.46 to $30.70 | This zone covers the 50-day moving average and the third pivot support level. A break below would weaken the short-term technical setup. |
| Long-term support | $29.00 to $29.50 | This area sits between the 52-week low of $28.95 and a round number psychological level. A decisive break would challenge the longer-term bullish case. |
| Resistance | $31.40 to $31.65 | This zone lines up with the first and second pivot resistance levels from Barchart. A clean break with volume would be a constructive short-term signal. |
| Higher resistance | $32.50 to $33.00 | This area corresponds to analyst target context and the upper range of recent price discovery before the stock pulled back toward the 100-day moving average. |
| 50-day moving average | $30.70 | Barchart reports EPRT above this level, supporting a mildly positive short-term trend reading. |
| 100-day moving average | $31.58 | EPRT is below this medium-term trend line at the time of this analysis. Regaining it would improve the technical picture. |
| 200-day moving average | $31.02 | EPRT holds slightly above this longer-term trend line, which supports the medium-term technical case. |
| Momentum | RSI about 56 (14-day) | Momentum is neutral. A move above 70 would suggest overbought conditions, while a move below 30 would suggest oversold territory. |
| Volume | 20-day average 2.18 million shares | Breakouts above $31.40 are more reliable if daily volume exceeds the 20-day average on up days. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.90 | Reported beta is slightly below the broad market, but REITs can still reprice quickly when interest rate expectations or AFFO guidance change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $30.50 or lower AFFO guidance | A break below the 50-day moving average and pivot support zone, combined with lower AFFO guidance or a dovish interest rate surprise that pressures REIT multiples, would weaken the base case. |
EPRT AI trading strategy
The EPRT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through price versus moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings on July 22, 2026, AFFO per share guidance, acquisition volume and cap rates, rent coverage trends, debt metrics, interest expense, and dividend growth.
Track whether EPRT can reclaim the 100-day moving average near $31.58 and then clear the $31.40 to $31.65 resistance zone with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results show AFFO per share growth, maintained acquisition volume, and stable rent coverage.
Reduce confidence if the stock loses the 50-day moving average, closes below $30.46, or rallies into earnings without AFFO and acquisition guidance support.
Use pullbacks toward the $30.46 to $30.70 support area as a watchlist condition only if rent coverage, acquisition yields, leverage, and AFFO payout ratios remain sound.
Do not treat the premium net-lease multiple as permanent. If the market lowers the terminal FFO proxy multiple below 13x, a healthy business can still deliver a negative stock outcome from an expensive entry.
Track AFFO per share, acquisition volume and cap rates, rent coverage, net debt to EBITDA, interest coverage, dividend per share growth, share count, and same-store rent growth.
A mix of lower AFFO guidance, weaker acquisition volume, rising interest costs, tenant credit deterioration, and a close below the 200-day moving average would override a bullish setup.
Investment research summary
Essential Properties is paid because middle-market service and experience businesses need real estate capital through sale-leaseback transactions. EPRT turns those long-term net lease cash flows into rent, AFFO, dividends, and new acquisition capacity.
The moat is built from long-duration net leases (14.4-year WALT), strong rent coverage (3.6x), tenant diversification (645 concepts in 48 states), and a disciplined middle-market origination network. The moat can narrow if competing capital drives cap rates lower or if economic stress reduces tenant credit quality.
The thesis can fail if EPRT overpays for acquisitions in a competitive market, interest rate normalization compresses spreads, tenant credit deterioration increases vacancy, the stock market reduces the multiple for net-lease REITs, or equity issuance dilutes per-share AFFO growth.
Management has demonstrated disciplined capital allocation since the 2018 IPO, growing the portfolio from zero to 2,266 properties while maintaining stable leverage and consistently raising the dividend. The next test is whether the team can sustain acquisition volume and yield spreads in a more competitive and higher-rate environment.
The long-term trend supports net-lease real estate as businesses seek to unlock capital by selling owned properties to REITs. The near-term cycle depends on interest rate direction, cap rate spreads versus corporate bond yields, middle-market tenant health, and the availability of acquisition capital.
The verified scenario model produced about $47.30 in the bull case, $34.40 in the base case, and $22.40 in the bear case using an FFO proxy for earnings. The margin of safety is only moderate because the current stock price already assumes continued double-digit AFFO growth and a stable REIT multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPRT price | $31.18 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.76 billion, verified as $31.18 x 216.8 million shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 216.8 million diluted shares; FY2025 end shares were 209.88 million | Yahoo Finance and Barchart balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $561.22 million, cross-validated with WallStreetZen and company context | WallStreetZen revenue page | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $253 million (sum of quarterly results), cross-validated with Yahoo Finance TTM of $255.67 million | Barchart income statement (quarterly) | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $59.8 million ($0.28 diluted EPS), revenue $158.8 million, EBITDA $135.2 million | Barchart income statement (quarterly) | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $70 million cash, $2,512 million long-term debt, and about $2,442 million net debt | Barchart FY2025 balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 24.55x P/E, 1.54x P/B, 10.73x P/S, 4.11% dividend yield, all verified with financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value metrics | $9.35B enterprise value, 15.84x EV/Revenue, 17.51x EV/EBITDA | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day MA $30.47, 50-day MA $30.70, 100-day MA $31.58, 200-day MA $31.02, RSI about 56, beta 0.90 | Barchart technical analysis page | July 12, 2026 |
| Pivot support and resistance | S1 $30.94, S2 $30.69, S3 $30.46; R1 $31.41, R2 $31.64, R3 $31.89 | Barchart opinion page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull $47.30 (12% growth, 18x PE), Base $34.40 (7% growth, 15x PE), Bear $22.40 (0% growth, 12x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.28 per share annualized ($0.32 quarterly, 4.11% forward yield, most recent increase was about 3% QoQ) | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This EPRT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and can be wrong if Essential Properties Realty Trust fundamentals, interest rates, capital markets, tenant credit quality, or investor sentiment change.
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