Bullish case
$80 to $90
More likely if consumer spending on experiences stays strong, Six Flags parks contribute accretive growth, AMC stabilizes, interest rates decline or stabilize, and the REIT sector multiple expands.
EPR Properties research snapshot
EPR AI Stock Analysis
EPR AI stock analysis currently reads EPR Properties as a specialized experiential net lease REIT with a diversified portfolio of movie theaters, amusement parks, ski resorts, eat-and-play venues, and other entertainment properties. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, EPR closed at $59.62 on July 10 with a market capitalization near $4.56 billion. The experiential REIT sector benefits from durable consumer demand for out-of-home entertainment, but the investment case depends on interest rate direction, tenant health (especially AMC Theatres exposure), the Six Flags park acquisition integration, dividend coverage, and the REIT valuation multiple. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$59.62
Market cap
About $4.56 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Experiential REIT with high dividend yield, portfolio diversification across entertainment properties, but elevated leverage and tenant concentration risk
Trend status
Constructive near-term: above the 50-day moving average and near the upper end of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. EPR Properties is a mid-cap experiential REIT with SEC filings, quarterly earnings releases, analyst coverage from several firms, and liquid public market data, though the shorter public track record of the experiential REIT subsector and limited analyst depth for mid-cap REITs mean some estimates require inference from published guidance and investor presentations.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is over-weighting the experiential spending narrative while under-weighting secular theater attendance decline risk, interest rate sensitivity, the impact of streaming on movie theater tenant demand, and possible dividend coverage pressure if operating conditions deteriorate.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high for filings, dividend history, portfolio data, and market-cap math. Medium for valuation and forecast scenarios because REIT sector sentiment, interest rate expectations, and tenant credit quality can shift quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. EPR has a differentiated experiential REIT focus, a high dividend yield that provides a valuation floor, and a strong property portfolio. However, the current price requires sustained consumer spending on entertainment, successful Six Flags integration, and stable interest rates.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | EPR owns experiential net lease properties across theaters, amusement parks, ski resorts, eat-and-play venues, and fitness. The triple-net lease structure provides stable cash flow with tenant responsible for operating costs. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from experiential property scarcity, long-term triple-net leases with tenant improvements, and diversification across entertainment segments. Topgolf, Six Flags, and AMC relationships add repeat business, but switching costs for tenants are low. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Gregory Silvers has led EPR since 2015 with a disciplined capital allocation approach. The team navigated COVID successfully and has been active in portfolio optimization, selling education assets and acquiring Six Flags parks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue near $720.2 million, net income $247.6 million, and levered free cash flow of $345 million. Dividend is well-covered by AFFO. The Six Flags acquisition adds $331 million in properties with accretive yield. | High |
| Valuation | Tool-checked valuation shows P/E near 18.40x TTM, P/FFO near 13.22x, dividend yield 6.24%, and EV/EBITDA near 13.26x. The yield is attractive for income investors but valuation is near the middle of the historical range. | Medium |
| Technical trend | EPR trades near $59.62, up YTD +19.48%, above the 50-day moving average, and near the upper end of the 52-week range. Momentum is constructive with potential resistance near the $62.08 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are AMC/movie theater tenant concentration, interest rate sensitivity (REIT sector), dividend coverage during downturns, experiential spending cyclicality, and integration risk from the Six Flags acquisition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research, portfolio data, dividend history, and source-backed numbers. Medium for future returns because REIT multiples depend on interest rates and consumer sentiment that are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The dividend yield provides a partial floor, but the stock moves with REIT sector sentiment and interest rate expectations. Certainty improves if AFFO per share grows while leverage stays manageable. | Medium |
EPR AI stock forecast
EPR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The EPR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $59.62 quote and TTM EPS near $3.24. financial_rigor.py produced a 3-year bullish value near $89.80, a base case near $67.50, and a bearish case near $48.10. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets. For REITs, AFFO per share is a more relevant metric than GAAP EPS, but the EPS-based framework provides a comparable starting point.
Base case
$62 to $72
More likely if AFFO compounds at a mid-single-digit rate, the dividend grows modestly, the P/FFO multiple stays near the current level, and Six Flags integration proceeds without major disruption.
Bearish case
$42 to $50
More likely if consumer spending on experiential entertainment weakens, AMC and other theater tenants face operating pressure, interest rates rise, or the market lowers REIT multiples on economic concerns.
EPR AI technical analysis
EPR AI Technical Analysis
EPR AI technical analysis is constructive but not without near-term resistance. As of the July 12, 2026 cutoff, EPR traded near $59.62, above its 50-day moving average and near the upper end of the $48.11 to $62.08 52-week range. The YTD return of +19.48% suggests positive momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $59.62 | EPR closed at $59.62 on July 10, 2026, used as the data-cutoff reference for this page. |
| Near support | $55.00 to $57.00 | The area near the 50-day moving average and psychological round number. A pullback to this zone would be normal consolidation. |
| Near resistance | $60.50 to $62.08 | The 52-week high of $62.08 is the key resistance. A sustained close above this level would open a new higher range. |
| 50-day moving average | Near $57 (estimate) | EPR recently broke above the 50-day MA, a positive near-term signal. Confirm the exact MA level from a live chart. |
| 200-day moving average | Near $53 (estimate) | The 200-day MA has provided long-term support. EPR trades well above this level as of the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | Positive YTD +19.48% | EPR has delivered a strong YTD return through July 10, 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 (+10.66% YTD). RSI is likely in the neutral-to-moderate range. |
| Volume | Requires live chart confirmation | This static page does not fetch request-time volume data. Check live volume before acting on a breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | Moderate | As a mid-cap REIT, EPR typically exhibits moderate volatility. The beta of 1.02 suggests roughly market-matching price movement. |
| Invalidation | Close below $53 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $53 would weaken the technical setup and suggest a deeper correction. |
EPR AI trading strategy
EPR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The EPR AI trading strategy is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It pairs the income-oriented REIT thesis with technical levels, valuation discipline, and a clear invalidation point.
Income-focused holding setup
For dividend-oriented investors, the 6.24% yield with monthly payout is the primary return driver. Monitor AFFO payout ratio, occupancy rates, tenant credit quality, and portfolio acquisition yield.
Reduce the position if the dividend payout ratio exceeds 85% of AFFO, or if tenant concentration risk (AMC, Six Flags) increases materially.
Momentum setup
If EPR breaks above the $62.08 52-week high with volume confirmation, a trend-following approach would target the next resistance zone. Use the 50-day MA as a trailing reference.
A close below the 50-day MA or a reversal from the 52-week high without fundamental support should trigger a re-evaluation of the momentum thesis.
Fundamental monitor
Track AFFO per share growth, portfolio occupancy, dividend coverage, debt maturity profile, interest coverage ratio, Six Flags acquisition operational performance, and AMC tenant health.
Reduce exposure if AFFO declines year-over-year, leverage (net debt/EBITDA) rises above 7x, or if experiential consumer spending shows sustained weakness.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
EPR Properties owns experiential real estate and triple-net leases it to operators of movie theaters, amusement parks, ski resorts, eat-and-play venues, and fitness centers. The tenant pays taxes, insurance, and maintenance while EPR collects predictable rent.
Moat
The moat comes from experiential property scarcity, long-duration triple-net leases, diversification across 353 properties and multiple entertainment segments, and relationships with national tenants like AMC, Topgolf (36 locations), and Six Flags.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if experiential consumer spending declines due to recession, streaming permanently reduces theater attendance, AMC or other key tenants face financial distress, interest rates stay higher for longer pressuring REIT valuations and refinancing costs, or if the Six Flags parks underperform acquisition underwriting.
Management
CEO Gregory Silvers has led the company since 2015, successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic that disproportionately impacted experiential real estate. The team has shown discipline by selling the education portfolio in 2019 and opportunistically acquiring Six Flags parks in 2026.
Industry trend
Experiential entertainment has secular tailwinds as consumers increasingly prioritize experiences over things. However, the theater segment faces structural headwinds from streaming. EPRs diversification across ski, amusement, eat-and-play, and fitness partially offsets theater risk.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 18.40x TTM EPS, 13.22x P/FFO, and 6.24% dividend yield, EPR is not priced as a distressed REIT. The valuation is reasonable for the experiential REIT peer group. Margin of safety depends on sustained AFFO growth, stable interest rates, and tenant credit quality.
Source-backed data
EPR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPR price | $59.62 | Yahoo Finance market snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $4.56 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py ($59.62 x 76.5M shares) | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | About $7.62 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $720.2 million | Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $247.6 million | Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $3.24 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 18.40x (confirmed by financial_rigor.py) | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $3.72 per year (6.24% yield), paid monthly | Yahoo Finance summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow | $344.98 million TTM | Yahoo Finance cash flow | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $68.62 million | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt / equity | 134.85% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.26x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $48.11 to $62.08 | Yahoo Finance summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y monthly) | 1.02 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This EPR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public filings, quote snapshots, technical data, and third-party sources as of July 12, 2026. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, interest rate changes, tenant credit events, acquisition integration updates, market moves, or macro conditions.
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