Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. research snapshot
RHP AI stock analysis currently reads Ryman Hospitality Properties as a differentiated lodging REIT built around large group-oriented destination hotels, Marriott-branded resorts, and Opry Entertainment venues. RHP closed at $125.71 on July 10, 2026, giving it a calculated market capitalization of about $7.92 billion using 63.006 million common shares. FY2025 revenue was $2.577 billion, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 13.2% year over year to $664.6 million and Adjusted EBITDAre rose 18.2% to $219.3 million. Management raised 2026 adjusted FFO guidance to $8.77 to $9.14 per diluted share and same-store Hospitality RevPAR growth guidance to 2.25% to 3.75%. The RHP AI stock forecast is therefore presented as a scenario range, not a promised price target. High debt, capital spending, group demand, and the valuation paid for future growth remain the central variables.
Current price
$125.71 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$7.92 billion calculated from 63.006 million shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality destination hospitality REIT with strong group demand, meaningful debt, and limited margin of safety after a sharp rerating
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact, short-term momentum neutral after a pullback from the $132.41 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay for convention resorts, rooms, food and beverage, meetings, entertainment, and destination experiences. FY2025 revenue reached $2.577 billion across Hospitality and Entertainment. | High |
| Moat | Large meeting footprints, iconic locations, integrated programming, Marriott relationships, and operating scale create a moderate moat. Switching costs for guests remain low and the assets are exposed to travel cycles. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mark Fioravanti and the team have expanded the portfolio, refinanced $700 million of notes into 2034, funded renovations, and maintained the REIT distribution policy. Capital allocation must keep debt and development risk controlled. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue increased from $939 million in 2021 to $2.577 billion in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDAre grew 13.2% and 18.2%, although GAAP net income remains below the 2023 peak. | High |
| Valuation | At $125.71, the price is about 14.03x the $8.96 midpoint of 2026 adjusted FFO guidance, 27.87x standardized FCF per share, and 3.82% on an annualized $4.80 dividend. Real estate book value is a weak standalone anchor. | High for math, medium for fair value |
| Technical trend | The close remains above the 50-day SMA of $117.41 and 200-day SMA of $100.41, but the 20-day SMA near $126.24 and RSI near 51.1 show neutral short-term momentum after the July pullback. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the portfolio is capital intensive and leveraged, while demand, labor, insurance, interest expense, renovations, weather, and large event calendars can affect cash earnings. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical financials and current company guidance, but lower for forward demand, terminal capitalization rates, and the persistence of the current valuation multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | RHP is a quality cyclical watchlist candidate rather than a low-risk compounder. The investment case needs steady RevPAR, disciplined capex, refinancing access, and gradual deleveraging. | Medium |
RHP AI stock forecast
The RHP AI stock forecast uses the 2026 adjusted FFO midpoint of $8.96 as a normalized starting point and applies 3-year growth and multiple scenarios. The financial rigor model produced a $180.6 bullish case, $141.1 base case, and $84.5 bearish case. The ranges below make the uncertainty visible. A bullish outcome requires durable group demand and better cash conversion, while a bearish outcome can come from a demand slowdown, higher financing costs, or a lower real estate valuation multiple.
$165.00 to $195.00
More likely if same-store RevPAR grows near or above guidance, group bookings and outside-the-room spending remain strong, renovations lift property earnings, debt costs stay contained, and the market supports a 16x or higher adjusted FFO multiple.
$130.00 to $150.00
More likely if adjusted FFO compounds near 4% annually, 2026 guidance is met, the portfolio maintains a moderate margin advantage, and the market values RHP near a 14x adjusted FFO multiple.
$75.00 to $100.00
More likely if corporate and leisure travel weaken, group cancellations rise, interest expense or insurance costs increase, capex stays elevated, or the stock loses the 200-day trend and trades closer to an 11x adjusted FFO multiple.
RHP AI technical analysis
RHP AI technical analysis is based on Nasdaq daily closes through July 10, 2026, plus the public 52-week range. The close is above the 50-day and 200-day averages, but it sits close to the 20-day average after falling from the July high. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so live levels should be confirmed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $125.71 | Nasdaq historical data, July 10, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $123.70 to $125.50 | Recent July 8 to July 10 intraday lows from Nasdaq historical data. |
| 50-day moving average | $117.41 | Simple average of the 50 latest Nasdaq daily closes through July 10, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $100.41 | Simple average of the 200 latest Nasdaq daily closes through July 10, 2026. |
| Near resistance | $128.85 to $132.41 | Recent July high area and the public 52-week high range. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI 14 near 51.1 | Simple 14-session RSI calculation from Nasdaq daily closes through July 10, 2026. |
| Volume | 546,310 latest versus 714,554 20-day average | Latest volume was below the recent average, so a breakout needs confirmation from stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 29.2% annualized 20-day volatility, ATR 2.65% | Calculated from Nasdaq daily OHLC data through July 10, 2026; useful for position sizing rather than prediction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $117.41, then $100.41 | A break below the 50-day average weakens the intermediate trend. A move below the 200-day average requires a broader thesis review. |
RHP AI trading strategy
The RHP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a leveraged hospitality REIT. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with live chart confirmation, a defined risk budget, and an updated review of group bookings, RevPAR, debt, capex, and adjusted FFO.
Wait for RHP to hold above the 50-day average near $117.41 and reclaim the $128.85 to $132.41 resistance area with stronger volume. Fundamental confirmation would be guidance intact, group bookings healthy, and no increase in net leverage.
Invalidate the setup after a decisive close below the 50-day average or if a new filing shows weaker demand and higher financing or capex pressure.
If price pulls toward the $117.41 area without a thesis break, compare the decline with RevPAR, group room nights, cancellation trends, cash interest expense, and the next dividend declaration before considering a rebound framework.
Do not average down through a demand or balance-sheet deterioration. Set a maximum loss before entry and avoid treating the dividend as downside protection.
Track same-store RevPAR, Total RevPAR, group bookings, ADR, occupancy, property-level EBITDAre, renovation spending, debt maturities, interest rates, dividend coverage, and the progress of Category 10 and Ole Red developments.
Lower confidence when price rises through multiple expansion without stronger adjusted FFO, cash flow, or evidence that debt is becoming easier to service.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RHP for a planned destination experience that combines rooms, meetings, food and beverage, entertainment, and resort amenities. The economic engine is the ability to sell scarce group and leisure capacity at attractive total RevPAR.
The moat comes from large convention footprints, unique destination locations, operating scale, Marriott relationships, recurring meeting planner relationships, and integrated entertainment programming. It is narrower than a software moat because guests can switch destinations and travel demand is cyclical.
The thesis can fail if corporate travel slows, group cancellations rise, labor and insurance costs squeeze margins, rates increase refinancing costs, renovations overrun, or new entertainment concepts fail to earn their capital.
Management has expanded the asset base through JW Marriott Desert Ridge, refinanced debt into later maturities, continued large property projects, and maintained a policy to distribute at least 100% of REIT taxable income annually. The key test is balancing growth capex with deleveraging and shareholder distributions.
Group travel, experiential leisure, destination resorts, and live entertainment can benefit from the shift toward meetings and shared experiences. The category is not a one-way secular trend because business travel, consumer budgets, weather, public health, and event calendars can reverse quickly.
The verified 14.03x price to 2026 adjusted FFO midpoint is reasonable only if the guidance range proves durable. The 27.87x standardized P/FCF and $4.0 billion debt balance leave less room for an operational or financing surprise than the headline dividend yield suggests.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RHP closing price | $125.71 on July 10, 2026 | Nasdaq historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Calculated market capitalization | $7.92 billion from $125.71 x 63.006 million shares | Financial rigor market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.577 billion, up 10.17% from 2024 | Ryman 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $664.6 million revenue and $69.4 million net income | Ryman Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDAre | $219.3 million, up 18.2% year over year | Ryman Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted FFO guidance | $8.77 to $9.14 per diluted share, midpoint $8.96 | Ryman Q1 2026 guidance | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and debt | $424.0 million unrestricted cash and $3.968 billion total debt | Ryman Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $83.82 to $132.41 | StockAnalysis RHP overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical averages and volatility | 20-day $126.24, 50-day $117.41, 200-day $100.41, 20-day volatility 29.2% | Calculated from Nasdaq daily data | July 12, 2026 |
This RHP AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Check current filings, market data, taxes, liquidity, and your own risk tolerance before making any decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
