Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. research snapshot
RHP AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Ryman Hospitality Properties as a high quality, group-focused lodging REIT trading at a full valuation after a roughly 41% year-to-date advance, with an Opry Entertainment Group strategic review as the main catalyst. The stock closed at $133.65 on July 31, 2026, for a market capitalization of about $8.39 billion on 62.77 million shares outstanding, within about 3% of its 52-week high of $137.46. The latest reported quarter is Q1 2026, released April 30, 2026, with revenue of $664.6 million up 13.2%, adjusted FFO per share of $2.32 up 10.5%, and adjusted EBITDAre of $219.3 million up 18.2%. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted FFO guidance to $8.77 to $9.14 per diluted share and same-store Hospitality RevPAR growth to 2.25% to 3.75%. On June 24, 2026, the company confirmed it engaged Morgan Stanley to evaluate strategic options for OEG, which owns the Grand Ole Opry, Ryman Auditorium, Ole Red, and Category 10, reinforcing its stated view that the entertainment business should eventually operate outside the REIT structure. At about 14.9x the 2026 adjusted FFO guidance midpoint and a 3.59% dividend yield, the stock prices in a strong operating outlook, so the RHP AI stock forecast is presented as scenario ranges, not price promises. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026.
Current price
$133.65 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.39 billion on 62.77 million shares outstanding
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality group-oriented lodging REIT trading at a full valuation, with an Opry Entertainment Group strategic review as the main catalyst
Trend status
Uptrend intact, price above all major moving averages and within about 3% of the $137.46 52-week high after a roughly 41% year-to-date gain
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay RHP for large group-oriented convention resorts, rooms, food and beverage, meetings, and live entertainment destinations. TTM revenue is about $2.64 billion across Hospitality and Entertainment, with FY2025 revenue of $2.577 billion up 10.17%. | High |
| Moat | Large indoor meeting footprints, iconic destination locations, Marriott management, integrated entertainment programming, and operating scale create a moderate moat. Switching costs for guests stay low and travel demand is cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mark Fioravanti and the team raised Q1 2026 guidance, refinanced $700 million of 2027 notes into 2034 notes, funded renovation and development projects, maintained the REIT distribution policy, and engaged Morgan Stanley to evaluate OEG strategic options. The key test remains balancing growth capex, debt, and distributions. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $939 million in 2021 to $2.577 billion in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDAre, and adjusted FFO per share grew 13.2%, 18.2%, and 10.5% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $133.65, the stock trades near 14.9x the 2026 adjusted FFO midpoint of $8.96, 35.13x trailing GAAP PE, 31.04x forward PE, 3.17x sales, and a 3.59% dividend yield, above the average analyst target of $131.62. | High for math, medium for fair value |
| Technical trend | Uptrend intact above the 20-day moving average of $129.04, the 50-day of $124.16, and the 200-day of $103.37, with 14-day RSI near 62.8 and price just below the 5-day average and the $137.46 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the portfolio is capital intensive and leveraged with about $3.97 billion of total debt, while group demand, labor, insurance, interest rates, weather, large event calendars, and the outcome of any OEG transaction can move cash earnings. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, guidance, market data, and valuation math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC filings, the Q1 2026 results release, and Barchart. Lower for forward demand, exit multiples, and any OEG transaction outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. RHP is a quality cyclical REIT with scarce assets, but the current price offers a thinner margin of safety after the 2026 rally, so certainty is lower than data confidence. | Medium |
RHP AI stock forecast
The RHP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $133.65 and the 2026 adjusted FFO guidance midpoint of $8.96. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $100, a base area near $148, and a bullish area near $190 over three years, using adjusted FFO growth of 0%, 5%, and 8% and exit multiples of 12x, 14x, and 17x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$175 to $205
More likely if same-store RevPAR grows at or above the raised 2.25% to 3.75% guidance, group bookings and outside-the-room spending stay strong, an OEG strategic partnership or separation crystallizes value, debt costs stay contained, and the market supports a 16x to 18x adjusted FFO multiple.
$135 to $160
More likely if adjusted FFO compounds near 5% annually from the $8.96 midpoint, 2026 guidance is met, the Opryland expansion and Category 10 developments deliver on plan, and the market holds RHP near a 14x to 15x adjusted FFO multiple.
$90 to $110
More likely if corporate and leisure travel weaken, group cancellations rise, interest or insurance costs increase, capex overruns, the OEG review ends without a value-creating deal, or the stock compresses toward an 11x to 12x adjusted FFO multiple.
RHP AI technical analysis
RHP AI technical analysis uses Barchart and StockAnalysis moving averages, RSI, ADX, and volatility through the July 31, 2026 close. The stock is in an uptrend above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages and sits near its 52-week high of $137.46 after a roughly 41% year-to-date gain. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so live levels should be confirmed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $133.65 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 62.77 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $134.68 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $134.68 on July 31, 2026, slightly above the close, so short-term momentum cooled after the July rally. |
| Near support | $129 to $131 | The 20-day moving average near $129.04 is the first pullback support zone, near the early-July consolidation range. |
| 50-day moving average | $124.16 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $124.16 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $111.83 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $111.83 on July 31, 2026, below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $103.37 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $103.37, well below price. |
| Near resistance | $134.68 to $137.46 | The 5-day average near $134.68 and the 52-week high of $137.46 are the immediate overhead levels. |
| Momentum | RSI near 62.8, ADX near 19.7 | 14-day RSI near 62.78 on Barchart is firm but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 19.65 shows a trend forming without strong directional conviction. |
| Volume | 457,939 latest versus 494,485 20-day average | Latest volume was slightly below the recent average, so a breakout above the 52-week high should be confirmed with stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 19.1%, 20-day near 21.1%, ATR near $3.12 | Barchart historical volatility and average true range through July 31, 2026, useful for position sizing rather than prediction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $124, then $103 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $124.16 would weaken the intermediate trend. A move below the 200-day near $103.37 requires a broader thesis review. |
RHP AI trading strategy
The RHP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a leveraged, group-focused hospitality REIT. It is not personalized advice. Pair any setup with live chart confirmation, a defined risk budget, and an updated review of group bookings, RevPAR, debt, capex, guidance, and OEG strategic developments.
Wait for RHP to reclaim its 5-day average near $134.68 and to break the $137.46 52-week high on stronger volume, with fundamentals confirmed by intact guidance, healthy group bookings, and stable leverage.
Invalidate the setup after a decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $129 or if a filing shows weaker demand, higher financing costs, or worse capex.
If price pulls toward the $124 to $129 area without a thesis break, compare the decline with RevPAR, group room nights, cancellation trends, interest expense, and the next dividend declaration before considering a rebound framework.
Do not average down through a demand or balance-sheet deterioration. Set a maximum loss before entry and avoid treating the dividend as downside protection.
Track same-store RevPAR and Total RevPAR, group bookings and cancellations, ADR, occupancy, property-level EBITDAre, renovation spending, debt maturities, interest rates, dividend coverage, the Q2 2026 report due August 6, and any OEG strategic partnership or separation announcement.
Lower confidence when price rises through multiple expansion without stronger adjusted FFO, cash flow, or evidence that debt is becoming easier to service.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RHP for a planned destination experience that combines rooms, meetings, food and beverage, entertainment, and resort amenities. The economic engine is the ability to sell scarce group and leisure capacity at attractive Total RevPAR, with TTM revenue near $2.64 billion.
The moat comes from large convention footprints, unique destination locations, operating scale, Marriott relationships, recurring meeting planner relationships, and integrated entertainment programming such as the Grand Ole Opry and Ryman Auditorium. It is narrower than a software moat because guests can switch destinations and travel demand is cyclical.
The thesis can fail if corporate travel slows, group cancellations rise, labor and insurance costs squeeze margins, rates raise refinancing costs, renovations overrun, or an OEG transaction destroys value or never happens, leaving the entertainment business inside the REIT with a lower growth profile.
Management raised 2026 guidance after a record Q1, refinanced $700 million of 2027 notes into 2034 notes, kept funding the Opryland expansion, Category 10, and Ole Red, maintained a distribution policy tied to REIT taxable income, and engaged Morgan Stanley to evaluate OEG strategic options. The test is balancing growth capex with deleveraging and shareholder distributions.
Group travel, experiential leisure, destination resorts, and live entertainment benefit from the shift toward meetings and shared experiences, but the category is not a one-way secular trend because business travel, consumer budgets, weather, public health, and event calendars can reverse quickly.
At about 14.9x the 2026 adjusted FFO midpoint and a 3.59% yield, the stock already prices in strong execution and sits above the $131.62 average analyst target, leaving a thinner margin of safety after the 2026 rally than it had at the start of the year.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RHP price | $133.65 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 0.30% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.39 billion, computed as $133.65 x 62.77 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $664.6 million, up 13.2% from $587.3 million in Q1 2025, a record first quarter | Ryman Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted FFO | $2.32 per diluted share/unit, up 10.5%, versus consensus of $2.01 | Ryman Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDAre | $219.3 million, up 18.2% year over year, with a 33.0% margin | Ryman Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted FFO guidance | $8.77 to $9.14 per diluted share, midpoint $8.96, raised on April 30, 2026 | Ryman Q1 2026 results release guidance | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 operating guidance | Same-store RevPAR growth of 2.25% to 3.75%, same-store Total RevPAR growth of 2.25% to 3.75%, net income per diluted share of $3.96 to $4.02, adjusted EBITDAre of $864 million to $902 million, and capex of $350 million to $450 million | Ryman Q1 2026 results release guidance | August 3, 2026 |
| Liquidity and debt | $424.0 million unrestricted cash and $3,968.4 million total debt, net of deferred financing costs, with $930.0 million of aggregate borrowing availability as of March 31, 2026 | Ryman Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.577 billion, up 10.17% from $2.339 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financial results | Revenue of $2.654 billion, net income of $250.94 million, and EPS of $3.80 over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 35.13, forward PE 31.04, price/FFO 16.53, PS 3.17, PB 11.37, EV/EBITDA 15.14, dividend yield 3.59% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Price history | 52-week range of $83.82 to $137.46, up 37.95% over 52 weeks and about 41.25% year to date | StockAnalysis.com statistics and history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average target of $131.62 across 13 analysts, low $120 and high $149, median $130 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Wells Fargo assumed Buy with a $126 to $136 target on July 23, JPMorgan raised to $129 from $113 on July 21, Barclays raised to $130 from $120 on July 21, BMO Capital reiterated $137 on June 25, and BofA Securities maintained $125 on June 11 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.04 million shares short, 3.25% of shares outstanding, 2.88 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| OEG strategic review | On June 24, 2026, Ryman confirmed it engaged Morgan Stanley to evaluate strategic opportunities for OEG, which owns the Grand Ole Opry, Ryman Auditorium, WSM 650 AM, Ole Red, and Category 10; management said no agreements have been entered into and no transaction is assured | Ryman press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026 after market close, with the conference call on August 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Ryman announcement | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $134.68, 20-day SMA near $129.04, 50-day SMA near $124.16, 100-day SMA near $111.83, 200-day SMA near $103.37, 14-day RSI near 62.78, 14-day ADX near 19.65, 14-day historical volatility near 19.09% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $4.80, a 3.59% yield, paid quarterly at $1.20 per share, with an ex-dividend date of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
This RHP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, OEG transaction news, market moves, or macro conditions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
