DLocal Limited research snapshot
DLO AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads DLocal as a high-growth emerging markets payments platform that delivered another strong quarter while managing margin and concentration risk. The stock traded at $15.23 on August 3, 2026 at 10:51 AM EDT, up 0.99% from the $15.08 close on July 31, carrying a market capitalization near $4.47 billion, computed as $15.23 times 293.47 million shares outstanding and reported at $4.47 billion by StockAnalysis.com. TTM revenue was about $1.21 billion, up 55.8%, with TTM net income near $192 million and free cash flow of about $411 million. Q1 2026 results, released May 14, 2026, showed TPV of $14.1 billion up 73% year over year, revenue of $335.9 million up 55%, gross profit of $118.7 million up 40%, and net income of $41.9 million that was down 10% year over year on a one-off $9.7 million prior-periods tax adjustment and an investment-cycle operating expense step up. Management kept 2026 guidance of 50% to 60% TPV growth, 22.5% to 27.5% gross profit growth, and 27.5% to 32.5% operating profit growth, and started returning capital with a $57 million dividend paid June 10, 2026 and a new $300 million buyback program. The stock sits above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 63. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$15.23 at the August 3, 2026, 10:51 AM EDT market open reading, up 0.99% from the $15.08 July 31 close
Market cap
$4.47 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-growth emerging markets payments platform with strong TPV momentum and concentration, margin, and valuation watch
Trend status
Bullish and above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a July 2026 rally, up about 52% over the past 52 weeks
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | DLocal connects global merchants (streaming, e-commerce, advertising, ride-hailing, and financial services companies) to consumers in emerging markets through one API. Merchants pay for access to 40+ markets with local payment methods, currency conversion, and regulatory compliance. Q1 2026 gross profit margin was 35%, and FY2025 profit margin was 18.0% on revenue of $1.09 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulatory licenses across 40+ emerging markets, local payment method integrations, merchant onboarding and compliance infrastructure, and network effects from adding merchants and payment methods. The model is asset-light with high cash conversion, but the moat remains unproven against well-funded local competitors and potential disintermediation. | Medium |
| Management | Pedro Arnt, former Chairman and a payments industry executive, is now CEO and signed the April 2026 and May 2026 6-K filings in that role. The team navigated the 2025 short-seller report and securities litigation, resolved the AZA Finance third-party proceeding, closed the Mint Code acquisition in Cameroon, launched a dividend and a $300 million buyback, and gave 2026 guidance. Key-person risk exists around the new CEO and senior EM leadership. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $244.1 million in FY2021 to $1.09 billion in FY2025 (up 46.6%), with Q1 2026 revenue of $335.9 million up 55% year over year. TPV hit a record $40.8 billion in FY2025 and $14.1 billion in Q1 2026. TTM net income is near $192 million, but Q1 2026 net income fell 10% year over year to $41.9 million on a one-off tax adjustment and higher operating expenses. | High |
| Valuation | At $15.23, DLO trades at 23.79x TTM EPS (23.80x verified by financial_rigor.py), 16.40x forward earnings, 3.65x TTM revenue, 8.00x book value, and 10.77x TTM free cash flow. The trailing multiple is elevated versus the 2025 range, and the stock is above the average analyst price target of $18.25. The three-scenario framework projected a bearish area near $10, a base area near $21, and a bullish area near $31 over three years. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | DLO traded at $15.23 on August 3, 2026, up 0.99% from the $15.08 July 31 close, above the 5-day average near $14.96, the 20-day near $14.75, the 50-day near $13.34, the 100-day near $13.09, and the 200-day near $13.40, with 14-day RSI near 62.79 on StockAnalysis.com and 63.17 on Barchart. Price is about 9% below the 52-week high of $16.78. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Elevated. Key risks include regulatory change in Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Argentina, and other markets, customer concentration, take-rate and gross margin compression, FX volatility in emerging market currencies, integration risk from the Mint Code Cameroon acquisition and Asia expansion, and the one-off tax adjustment precedent. The elevated trailing valuation leaves limited room for error if growth slows. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction, and the Q1 2026 margin and net income trends plus the premium valuation cap the certainty. | Medium |
DLO AI stock forecast
The DLO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $15.23 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 consensus EPS near $0.86. The three-scenario model produced a bearish area near $10, a base area near $21, and a bullish area near $31 over three years, using EPS growth of 5%, 15%, and 22% and exit multiples of 10x, 16x, and 20x. The average analyst price target is $18.25, with a low of $14.50 and a high of $21. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$27 to $34
More likely if TPV growth stays near 50% to 60%, gross profit margins stabilize above 35%, the Mint Code Cameroon acquisition and Asia expansion in Vietnam and Thailand ramp successfully, the Q1 2026 working capital drag reverses, regulatory environments remain constructive, and the market re-rates DLO toward 20x forward earnings as confidence in the platform moat increases.
$18 to $23
More likely if TPV grows 40% to 50%, gross profit grows near the 22.5% to 27.5% guidance band, Brazil and Mexico remain stable, the Mint Code integration proceeds without major issues, adjusted free cash flow normalizes, and the stock trades at 16x to 18x forward earnings in line with high-growth fintech peers and near the $18.25 average analyst target.
$8 to $12
More likely if regulatory actions in key markets disrupt operations, customer concentration leads to merchant loss, take-rate compression accelerates faster than cost reductions, the Africa or Asia expansion underperforms, EM FX volatility creates large translation losses, Q1 style net income declines continue, or the competitive environment intensifies significantly.
DLO AI technical analysis
DLO technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff shows the stock in a constructive uptrend above all key moving averages after a July 2026 rally. DLO traded at $15.23, up 0.99% from the $15.08 July 31 close, above the 5-day average near $14.96, the 20-day near $14.75, the 50-day near $13.34, the 100-day near $13.09, and the 200-day near $13.40, with 14-day RSI near 62.79 on StockAnalysis.com and 63.17 on Barchart and 14-day ADX near 18.46 showing a moderate trend. The stock is about 9% below the 52-week high of $16.78. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.23 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 10:51 AM EDT reading, up 0.99% from the $15.08 July 31 close, with a day range of $15.16 to $15.47. |
| Resistance R1 | $15.44 to $15.51 | The July 7, 2026 intraday high was near $15.51 and the July 31, 2026 high near $15.44, forming the first overhead zone ahead of the 52-week high. |
| Resistance R2 | $16.78 | The 52-week high. A break above this level with volume would signal a renewed momentum leg after the July 2026 recovery. |
| Support S1 | $14.75 to $14.96 | The 20-day moving average near $14.75 and the 5-day average near $14.96 on Barchart form the first support zone for pullbacks. |
| Support S2 | $13.34 to $13.40 | The 50-day moving average near $13.34 and the 200-day near $13.40 cluster as a stronger support zone. A break below this area would weaken the recovery trend. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.34 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $13.34 on August 3, 2026, well below price and consistent with the July rally. |
| 200-day moving average | $13.40 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $13.40 on August 3, 2026, near the 50-day and supporting the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 62.79 | 14-day RSI was near 62.79 on StockAnalysis.com and 63.17 on Barchart on August 3, 2026, elevated but not overbought after the July rally. |
| Volume | About 1.80 million shares average | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 1,804,287 shares on August 3, 2026, and Barchart near 1,800,919. The July 1 UBS upgrade day printed about 11.8 million shares. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 30.79% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 30.79%, 9-day near 35.07%, and 50-day near 44.19%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 13 earnings report and EM FX moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.34, then $13.09 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $13.34 would weaken the near-term setup; a move below the 100-day near $13.09 would challenge the recovery trend toward the 200-day area. |
DLO AI trading strategy
The DLO AI trading strategy provides a framework for monitoring the stock based on its pattern as a high-growth emerging markets fintech with regulatory sensitivity, take-rate pressure, and a constructive technical structure. These are not personalized trading recommendations.
Consider monitoring DLO on pullbacks toward the 20-day moving average near $14.75 in an established uptrend. Entry confirmation could include price holding above the 20-day MA with above-average volume and gross profit guidance staying intact. Position sizing should account for 14-day historical volatility near 30.79%.
Invalidation: a daily close below the 50-day moving average near $13.34 suggests the recovery trend has failed. Consider reducing exposure if volume confirms the breakdown or if a key market changes regulation.
DLO can revert after extended moves. Consider monitoring RSI near 70 combined with price near the $15.44 to $16.78 resistance zone for potential short-term reversion. This setup suits shorter timeframes and active risk management.
Stop condition: if price breaks above $16.78 with volume, the reversion thesis is invalidated and a new momentum leg may be underway. Re-entry can be considered on the next pullback to support.
Track institutional accumulation through volume analysis, analyst actions, and earnings. The July 1, 2026 UBS upgrade to Buy with a $20 target and the July 31, 2026 Goldman Sachs reiteration at $19 were positive catalysts. Monitor Q2 2026 earnings on August 13, 2026 for TPV growth, gross profit margin, adjusted free cash flow, and commentary on the $300 million buyback.
Use position sizing appropriate for single-stock risk. Consider the correlation with broader EM fintech sentiment and the Brazilian real and Argentine peso exchange rate moves as additional monitoring data. If EM currencies weaken sharply, reduce exposure regardless of the micro setup.
Investment research summary
DLocal gets paid when global merchants need to collect payments from consumers in emerging markets. Instead of integrating with dozens of local payment gateways, managing FX, and maintaining regulatory compliance in each country, merchants plug into DLocal through one API for pay-in and pay-out. Q1 2026 gross profit margin was 35%, and FY2025 profit margin was 18.0%.
DLocal has built a regulatory and infrastructure moat through payment licenses and local integrations across 40+ emerging markets, and it is asset-light with high cash conversion. Each new license, payment method, and merchant adds to platform value. However, the moat is still young. Local competitors in Brazil, Nigeria, and India are well-funded, and take-rate and gross profit margin compression show the pricing pressure of scaling volume.
The thesis fails if a major market revokes or restricts a DLocal payment license, if a key merchant builds its own EM payment infrastructure, if take-rate compression erodes unit economics below the cost of capital, if the Mint Code Cameroon acquisition or Asia expansion destroys value, or if the one-off tax adjustment pattern recurs. The single biggest risk: regulatory action in Brazil or Mexico, which together represent a large share of revenue and TPV.
Pedro Arnt, a payments industry executive and former Chairman, now serves as CEO and signed the April and May 2026 6-K filings. Management navigated the 2025 short-seller report, resolved the AZA Finance third-party proceeding in November 2025, closed the Mint Code Cameroon acquisition on February 27, 2026, and launched a dividend and a $300 million buyback. Capital allocation discipline, especially regarding M&A, remains unproven over a full cycle.
Digital payments in emerging markets are in a long-term secular growth phase driven by smartphone adoption, e-commerce expansion, and the formalization of cash economies. DLocal benefits from this trend regardless of which specific merchants or markets win. TPV hit a record $40.8 billion in FY2025, up 60%, and $14.1 billion in Q1 2026, up 73%. The Li Lu question: standing 20 years from now, is DLocal the essential payment infrastructure of the developing world, or a company outmaneuvered by local champions and big tech payment platforms?
At $15.23, DLO trades at 23.79x TTM earnings, 16.40x forward earnings, and 3.65x TTM revenue, above the average analyst target of $18.25. The three-scenario framework suggests a base case of $18 to $23 and a bear case of $8 to $12. The current price appears to discount sustained high growth with some regulatory risk premium, leaving a thinner margin of safety than the January 2026 lows offered.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLO price | $15.23 at the August 3, 2026, 10:51 AM EDT reading, up 0.99% from the $15.08 July 31 close, with a day range of $15.16 to $15.47 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.47 billion, computed as $15.23 x 293.47 million shares outstanding, reported at $4.47 billion by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with Barchart | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, StockAnalysis.com statistics, and Barchart quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 293.47 million shares outstanding with a float near 85.98 million, about 49.01% owned by insiders and 22.26% by institutions | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $1.21 billion over the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2026, up 55.8%, with FY2025 revenue of $1.09 billion up 46.6% | StockAnalysis.com financials and the FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $192.15 million on the StockAnalysis.com statistics page, with FY2025 net income of $196.9 million up 63% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics and the FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Total Payment Volume (TPV) | Record $40.8 billion in FY2025, up 60% year over year, and $14.1 billion in Q1 2026, up 73% year over year | Q4 2025 6-K earnings release and Q1 2026 6-K earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | TPV of $14.1 billion up 73%, revenue of $335.9 million up 55%, gross profit of $118.7 million up 40% at a 35% margin, operating profit of $52.8 million, and net income of $41.9 million or $0.14 per diluted share, down 10% year over year including a one-off $9.7 million prior-periods tax adjustment | Q1 2026 6-K earnings release, dated May 14, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | TPV growth of 50% to 60% year over year, gross profit growth of 22.5% to 27.5%, and operating profit growth of 27.5% to 32.5%, with operating leverage expected to improve in the second half of 2026 | Q4 2025 6-K earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | TTM free cash flow near $410.97 million, computed as operating cash flow of $412.83 million minus capital expenditures of about $1.86 million, for a P/FCF near 10.77x and an FCF yield near 9.29% | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | Cash and cash equivalents of $913.66 million and total debt of $109.71 million on the statistics page under S&P Global classification, giving a net cash position near $803.95 million or $2.74 per share; the balance sheet page shows cash of $815.61 million plus short-term investments of $98 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE (TTM) of 23.79 and 23.80 verified by financial_rigor.py, forward PE of 16.40, PS of 3.65, PB of 8.00, P/FCF of 10.77, and EV/Sales of 2.99 on the statistics page | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.19 per share with a 1.27% forward yield, declared as a $57.2 million cash dividend approximately $0.1939 per share, paid June 10, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and Q4 2025 6-K earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Share buyback program | Board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $300 million of Class A common shares on March 13, 2026, expiring at the earliest of March 2027 or upon reaching the repurchase limit | Q4 2025 6-K earnings release and FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Profitability | Gross margin of 36.00%, operating margin of 18.71%, and profit margin of 15.84% on the statistics page, with ROE near 34.99% and ROIC near 22.39% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 15.74 million shares short, 5.36% of shares outstanding, 18.30% of float, about 4.90 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $10.11 to $16.78 on StockAnalysis.com, up about 52.35% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta near 0.86 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $14.96, 20-day near $14.75, 50-day near $13.34, 100-day near $13.09, 200-day near $13.40, 14-day RSI near 62.79 on StockAnalysis.com and 63.17 on Barchart, 14-day ADX near 18.46, and 20-day average volume near 1.80 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating of Buy with an average price target of $18.25, a low of $14.50, a median of $18, and a high of $21 from 10 analysts, with Google Finance showing a $17.70 average from 5 analysts; recent actions include the UBS upgrade to Buy at $20 on July 1, 2026, the Goldman Sachs reiteration at $19 on July 31, 2026, the Truist buy at $17 on July 29, 2026, and the Morgan Stanley Hold at $15 on May 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Earnings date | The next confirmed earnings date is Thursday, August 13, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| AZA Finance and Mint Code | The AZA Finance acquisition was announced in June 2025, restructured after a third-party proceeding that was resolved and withdrawn in November 2025, and on February 27, 2026 DLocal exercised a call option to acquire certain assets and 100% of the share capital of Mint Code Solution S.A., Cameroon | FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| IPO date | June 3, 2021, on the Nasdaq Global Select Market | StockAnalysis.com quote and FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
This DLO AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All forecasts are scenario-based projections grounded in publicly available data and may prove incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in stocks, particularly emerging market fintech companies, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sources include StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR 6-K filings, the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases, the FY2025 Form 20-F, Barchart, and Google Finance, with data cutoff as of August 3, 2026.
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