Delek Logistics Partners, LP research snapshot
DKL AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Delek Logistics Partners as a midstream master limited partnership that owns crude and refined product logistics, natural gas processing, and produced water infrastructure, with about 80 percent of 2026 run-rate EBITDA now expected from third-party customers in the Permian Basin. The unit closed at $58.03 on August 3, 2026, down $1.14 or 1.93% from the previous close, after opening at $58.80 and trading between $57.19 and $59.99, with an after-hours print of $59.16. DKL set a new 52-week intraday high of $61.50 on July 31, 2026, and carries a market capitalization near $3.09 billion, matching $58.03 times 53.17 million units outstanding. Management raised the quarterly distribution for the 54th consecutive quarter to $1.135 per unit on July 22, 2026, implying a forward annual rate of $4.54 and a yield near 7.8 percent. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $132 million, distributable cash flow near $72 million, and DCF coverage around 1.2x support the payout, and management reaffirmed full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million. TTM revenue reached $1.06 billion, net income was $169.78 million, and operating cash flow of $375.94 million exceeded capital expenditures of $260.81 million, producing positive free cash flow of about $115 million over the TTM. The offset is a balance sheet with roughly $2.33 billion of total debt, adjusted leverage of 4.05x, negative book equity typical of an MLP that returns most cash, and a meaningful reliance on Permian producer volumes and the relationship with Delek US Holdings. At 18.31x trailing earnings and 2.91x sales, DKL trades above the analyst consensus target of $55.80 and about 5 percent below its 52-week high, so the 2026 rally has already captured a large share of the improvement. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$58.03 at the August 3, 2026 close, down $1.14 or 1.93% from the previous close
Market cap
About $3.09 billion, matching $58.03 times 53.17 million units outstanding
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
A fee-based midstream MLP improving its third-party mix and raising the distribution for a 54th consecutive quarter, but now trading above the analyst consensus target after a strong 2026 rally
Trend status
Bullish but extended: above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after a new 52-week intraday high of $61.50 on July 31, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Delek Logistics owns and operates crude gathering, pipeline transportation, storage and terminalling, wholesale marketing, natural gas processing, and produced water infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Revenue is largely fee-based, and management expects about 80 percent of 2026 run-rate EBITDA to come from third-party customers. | High |
| Moat | The competitive advantages come from integrated logistics assets tied to Permian production, long-term fee-based contracts, and the high cost of replicating pipeline, processing, and water infrastructure. The offset is that a meaningful share of volumes still depends on producer activity and, to a lesser degree, on Delek US Holdings. | Medium |
| Management | Management has raised the quarterly distribution for 54 consecutive quarters, grew adjusted EBITDA to $132 million in Q1 2026 despite a $10 million Winter Storm Fern headwind, kept DCF coverage near 1.2x, and upsized the revolving credit facility to $1.3 billion maturing in 2031. Key monitoring points are the sour gas ramp, growth capex returns, and the adjusted leverage ratio near 4.05x. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $1.06 billion, net income of $169.78 million, and operating cash flow of $375.94 million exceeded capital expenditures of $260.81 million, yielding positive free cash flow near $115 million over the TTM. The profit margin near 16 percent and the forward distribution rate of $4.54 indicate the payout remains supported, with Q1 2026 DCF coverage near 1.2x. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.03, the trailing P/E of 18.31x and P/S of 2.91x are above the midstream MLP peer range, and the unit trades above the analyst consensus target of $55.80. The forward yield near 7.8 percent remains attractive for income investors but is lower than it was earlier in 2026 because of the price rally. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The unit made a new 52-week intraday high of $61.50 on July 31, 2026, then pulled back to $58.03 on August 3. Price is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $56.36, $53.22, $52.32, and $50.04, with 14-day RSI near 60.90. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. DKL is exposed to Permian producer volumes, the Delek US Holdings relationship, meaningful leverage with an adjusted ratio near 4.05x, negative book equity, rising interest expense on variable-rate debt, commodity price swings, and MLP tax complexity. Beta of 0.43 suggests low market sensitivity, but company-specific risks are meaningful. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported financial data, price, market cap, and valuation inputs are well supported by StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 earnings call. AI cannot predict Permian producer activity, gas processing ramp timing, debt refinancing terms, or distribution policy changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The distribution is attractive and the fee-based business with an improving third-party mix provides cash flow stability, but the negative book equity, meaningful leverage, parent and producer dependence, and a price above the consensus target warrant caution. Distribution income is the primary return driver, not unit price appreciation. | Low-medium |
DKL AI stock forecast
The DKL AI stock forecast is a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. It uses a three-year sensitivity around the $58.03 cutoff price and the $3.17 TTM EPS. The model shows how distribution growth and multiple assumptions affect the range, not a guaranteed outcome. DKL returns are driven primarily by distributions rather than unit price appreciation, and the unit now trades above the $55.80 consensus target.
$74 to $84 plus accumulated distributions
More likely if Permian producer activity stays strong, the sour gas gathering system reaches capacity in the second half of 2026, produced water volumes keep growing, leverage declines, and the market assigns a higher multiple to the improving third-party cash flows. The sensitivity produced about $82 using 9 percent EPS growth and a 20x multiple.
$50 to $62 plus accumulated distributions
More likely if volume throughput remains steady, the distribution grows modestly from $1.135 per quarter, the gas ramp delivers in stages, leverage stays manageable, and the multiple holds near 16x. The sensitivity produced about $57 using 4 percent EPS growth and a 16x multiple.
$32 to $42 plus accumulated distributions
More likely if Permian producer activity slows, the gas processing ramp is delayed again, DKL needs to refinance debt at higher rates, the Delek US Holdings relationship changes, or the distribution is cut to preserve balance sheet flexibility. The sensitivity produced about $35 using a modest EPS decline and a 12x multiple.
DKL AI technical analysis
DKL AI technical analysis uses the $58.03 August 3 close and data from StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. The unit made a new 52-week intraday high of $61.50 on July 31, 2026, and trades above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $56.36, $53.22, and $50.04, with 14-day RSI near 60.90. Beta of 0.43 means below-average market sensitivity, typical for midstream MLPs. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so confirm every level before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.03 close on August 3, 2026 | Down $1.14 or 1.93% from the previous close after opening at $58.80 and trading between $57.19 and $59.99, with an after-hours print of $59.16. Confirm the live quote before using any level. |
| 52-week high | $61.50 on July 31, 2026 | The intraday high set on July 31 is the key resistance reference above the round $60 zone. |
| Near support | $55 to $57 | The 20-day moving average near $56.36 and the late July trading range provide the first support zone. |
| Secondary support | $52 to $53 | The 50-day moving average near $53.22 and the early July consolidation range near $52 provide the next support zone. |
| Deeper support | $49 to $50 | The 200-day moving average near $50.04 and the late June consolidation near $49 to $50 are the structural trend reference. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $56.36, 50-day near $53.22, 100-day near $52.32, 200-day near $50.04 | Price is above all four averages, a structurally positive configuration that can persist in stable midstream trends, though the price is extended above the 200-day by a wide margin. |
| Momentum | Positive with 14-day RSI near 60.90 | RSI is elevated but below overbought, consistent with a strong trend that is not yet extreme. |
| Volume | August 3 volume near 114,235 versus the 20-day average near 74,600 | Volume picked up on the July 31 high and the August 3 pullback, reflecting active two-way trade around the distribution and upcoming earnings events. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.43; 14-day ATR near $1.81 | Below-average market sensitivity, but the unit remains sensitive to distribution announcements, earnings, and producer activity news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $52 | A sustained close below the 50-day moving average near $53.22 and the $52 support would weaken the structural uptrend and warrant a fresh technical review, especially if tied to producer or parent company stress. |
DKL AI trading strategy
The DKL AI trading strategy is a rules-based educational framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical levels with reported business milestones and midstream industry indicators. DKL is primarily an income vehicle, so total return analysis should include the forward distribution yield near 7.8 percent.
For income-oriented investors, evaluate DKL on distribution coverage, adjusted leverage, and the sustainability of fee-based cash flows from third-party customers. The forward rate of $4.54 per unit implies a yield near 7.8 percent at $58.03, providing a baseline return before any unit price change.
Monitor the DCF coverage ratio against the distribution and the adjusted leverage ratio. A coverage ratio below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters, a distribution cut, or adjusted leverage trending above 4.5x would be the primary risk signals.
If DKL retraces toward the $55 to $57 support zone near the 20-day moving average on no fundamental deterioration, compare the entry yield with the partnership historical range and midstream peer yields. A higher yield at a lower price can improve total return potential.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if the cause is producer activity weakness, a gas ramp delay, a distribution concern, or debt market stress that affects refinancing ability.
Track Permian producer activity and Delaware Basin volumes, gas processing utilization and the sour gas ramp, produced water volumes, distribution and DCF coverage, total debt and adjusted leverage, interest expense, growth capex spending, and project completions.
Lower the rating if management cuts or pauses the distribution, adjusted leverage trends above 4.5x, full-year EBITDA falls below the $520 million guidance low end, or the unit breaks the $52 technical support on fundamental news.
Investment research summary
Delek Logistics provides the physical infrastructure that moves crude, gas, and produced water in the Permian Basin and delivers refined products to markets. Customers pay for gathering, processing, storage, terminal, and disposal services that are expensive to replicate, with about 80 percent of 2026 run-rate EBITDA now expected from third parties.
The competitive advantages come from integrated logistics assets connected to Permian production, long-term fee-based contracts, and the high capital cost of building competing pipeline, processing, and water infrastructure. The offset is that volumes still depend on producer activity and, to a lesser degree, on Delek US Holdings.
The thesis fails if Permian producer activity slows and volumes decline, the sour gas ramp is delayed again, DKL cannot refinance maturing debt at sustainable rates, a distribution cut becomes necessary to preserve balance sheet flexibility, or the parent company restructures its relationship with the partnership.
Management has raised the distribution for 54 consecutive quarters, delivered Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $132 million against a $10 million Winter Storm Fern headwind, kept DCF coverage near 1.2x, and upsized liquidity to roughly $1.1 billion with a revolving facility maturing in 2031. The key proof point is funding growth capex near $180 million to $190 million while holding adjusted leverage near 4.05x.
Permian crude, gas, and produced water volumes continue to grow, and new residue gas takeaway capacity is expected to relieve Waha pricing pressure in the second half of 2026, supporting producer activity. The midstream sector remains in a consolidation phase where scale, third-party diversification, and balance sheet strength increasingly drive the cost of capital.
At roughly 18.31x trailing earnings and 2.91x sales, DKL trades above the analyst consensus target of $55.80 and about 5 percent below its 52-week high of $61.50. The forward distribution yield near 7.8 percent provides a meaningful income component, but the 2026 rally has reduced the margin of safety versus investment-grade midstream peers.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DKL price | $58.03 close on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com DKL overview | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.09 billion, verified as $58.03 times 53.17 million units | StockAnalysis.com and Pineify financial_rigor.py calculation | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.40 billion | StockAnalysis.com DKL statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.06 billion | StockAnalysis.com DKL statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $169.78 million | StockAnalysis.com DKL statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $3.17 | StockAnalysis.com DKL financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward distribution rate | $4.54 per unit annually, yielding about 7.8 percent, from the Q2 2026 distribution of $1.135 per unit | StockAnalysis.com DKL dividend page and Delek Logistics Q2 2026 distribution press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $9.91 million cash; $2.33 billion total debt; $2.295 billion long-term debt; net debt near $2.32 billion | StockAnalysis.com DKL balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept data | August 4, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow and capital expenditures (TTM) | $375.94 million operating cash flow; $260.81 million capital expenditures; free cash flow of $115.13 million | StockAnalysis.com DKL cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing P/E 18.31x; forward P/E 15.65x; P/S 2.91x; EV/EBITDA 17.51x; EV/Sales 5.09x | StockAnalysis.com DKL statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Adjusted EBITDA $132 million; DCF as adjusted $72 million; DCF coverage near 1.2x; adjusted leverage 4.05x; FY2026 EBITDA guidance $520 million to $560 million | Delek Logistics Q1 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 52-week range $41.72 to $61.50; beta 0.43; 20-day MA $56.36; 50-day MA $53.22; 200-day MA $50.04; RSI 60.90; average volume near 74,600 | StockAnalysis.com DKL statistics and Barchart DKL technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $55.80, range $52 to $60 across 5 analysts | StockAnalysis.com DKL forecast | August 4, 2026 |
This DKL page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Markets, financial results, and technical levels can change quickly. DKL is a master limited partnership with unique tax considerations; consult a qualified tax and financial professional before investing. The data cutoff is August 4, 2026, and Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026. Verify current information and consider a qualified financial professional before acting.
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